National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

...CORE OF HILARY NEARING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING LIKELY OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THROUGH MONDAY... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sun Aug 20 the center of Hilary was located near 31.3, -116.1 with movement N at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201755
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Aug 20 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Storm Hilary, located on the west coast of the
Baja California peninsula.

South of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form offshore of the coast of
Central America or southern Mexico during the middle part of the
week. Development of this system, if any, should be slow to occur
while it moves slowly toward the northwest or north-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Aug 2023 20:45:34 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Aug 2023 21:29:07 GMT

Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Aug 19 2023 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 192043 TCDEP4 Hurricane Hilary Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023 300 PM MDT Sat Aug 19 2023 Hilary appears to be weakening quickly. The eye is filling and the cloud tops in the eyewall and rainbands have been warming during the past several hours. In addition, the hurricane has become increasingly asymmetric with dry air continuing to wrap into the western half of the circulation. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating Hilary during the past few hours and found that the minimum pressure has risen to 959 mb. Blending the aircraft flight-level wind and SFMR data, as well as some of the satellite estimates yields an initial intensity of 95 kt, but that could be a little generous. Areas of heavy rain are already spreading across portions of the Baja California Peninsula and the Southwestern U.S. Hilary is also producing a large area of high seas along the coast of Baja California and the Gulf of California, with maximum significant wave heights estimated to be higher than 40 ft. The hurricane is still moving north-northwestward, or 345/15 kt. The steering currents are well established and consist of a strong mid-level high pressure area over the south-central U.S. and a mid- to upper-level low off the central California coast. The flow between these features should cause Hilary to accelerate to the north-northwest or north during the next day or two, with the core of the system reaching the central portion of the Baja California Peninsula tonight and southern California Sunday afternoon or evening. The NHC track forecast is largely the same as the previous one and near the middle of the guidance envelope. Users are reminded that the exact details of the track forecast, including where Hilary might make landfall, are of little overall importance since strong winds and heavy rainfall will extend far from the center. These hazards will also begin well in advance of the arrival of the center. Hilary is expected to continue weakening rather quickly while it moves northward due to significantly cooler waters, drier air, and an increase in vertical wind shear. However, Hilary is still expected to be a hurricane when it makes landfall or moves very near the central portion of the Baja California Peninsula. There is high confidence that Hilary will move into southern California as a tropical storm. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Preparations for flooding impacts should be completed as soon as possible, as heavy rainfall will begin well in advance of the center. In the Southwestern U.S., the potentially historic amount of rainfall is expected to cause flash, urban, and arroyo flooding including landslides, mudslides, and debris flows. Dangerous to locally catastrophic flooding impacts are expected late tonight through early Monday. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected along the west-central coast of the Baja California Peninsula within the hurricane warning area tonight and Sunday morning, and are possible in the Hurricane Watch area on Sunday. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin Sunday in portions of the southwestern U.S. within the Tropical Storm Warning area. Winds could be particularly strong and gusty in and near areas of higher terrain. Gusty winds are expected to spread well inland across the western U.S. 4. Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the Baja California Peninsula and southern California over the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 23.8N 114.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 26.4N 114.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 30.8N 116.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 36.4N 117.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 19 2023 434 FOPZ14 KNHC 192043 PWSEP4 HURRICANE HILARY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092023 2100 UTC SAT AUG 19 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HILARY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT OXNARD CA 34 X 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SANTA CRUZ IS 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LONG BEACH/LA 34 X 6( 6) 16(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) S CATALINA IS 34 X 9( 9) 13(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) SAN DIEGO CA 34 X 23(23) 37(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) SAN DIEGO CA 50 X X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) SAN DIEGO CA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) YUMA AZ 34 X 5( 5) 9(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) TIJUANA 34 X 14(14) 42(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) TIJUANA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ENSENADA 34 X 58(58) 19(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) ENSENADA 50 X 6( 6) 18(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) ENSENADA 64 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) IS GUADALUPE 34 5 16(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 84 16(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PUNTA EUGENIA 50 5 83(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) PUNTA EUGENIA 64 X 47(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) P ABREOJOS 34 99 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) P ABREOJOS 50 18 2(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) P ABREOJOS 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LORETO 34 41 X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) P PENASCO 34 2 27(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) HERMOSILLO 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BAHIA KINO 34 19 6(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) GUAYMAS 34 11 3(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) 25N 115W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 25N 115W 50 85 X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) 25N 115W 64 25 X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) 25N 120W 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 30N 120W 34 X 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Aug 19 2023 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 192043 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Hilary Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023 300 PM MDT Sat Aug 19 2023 ...HEAVY RAINS ALREADY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S... ...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING LIKELY... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.8N 114.1W ABOUT 285 MI...455 KM SSE OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO ABOUT 640 MI...1030 KM SSE OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Quintin A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San Quintin to Ensenada A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos southward * Baja California peninsula entire east coast * Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San Quintin to the California/Mexico border * Mainland Mexico north of Guaymas * California/Mexico border to Point Mugu * Catalina Island A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to Guaymas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the southwestern U.S. should monitor the progress of Hilary. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hilary was located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 114.1 West. Hilary is moving toward the north-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). The hurricane is expected to accelerate as it moves north-northwestward to northward during the next day or two. On the forecast track, the center of Hilary will move close to the west-central coast of the Baja California Peninsula tonight and Sunday morning then move across southern California Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected, but Hilary will still be a hurricane when it approaches the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula. Hilary is expected to weaken to a tropical storm before it reaches southern California. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 265 miles (425 km). A sustained wind of 46 mph (74 km/h) and a gust of 61 mph (98 km/h) were recently reported at Puerto Cortes. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 959 mb (28.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hilary can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml. RAINFALL: Hilary is expected to produce storm total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts up to 10 inches, across portions of the northern Baja California Peninsula through Sunday night. Flash and urban flooding, locally catastrophic, is expected, especially in the northern portions of the peninsula. Heavy rainfall is expected across the Southwestern United States, peaking late tonight through Sunday night. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of 10 inches, are expected across portions of southern California and southern Nevada. Dangerous to catastrophic flooding is expected. Elsewhere across portions of the Western United States, rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected, resulting in localized significant flash flooding. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area tonight and early Sunday and are possible within the hurricane watch on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are occurring within the southern portion of the tropical storm warning area and will spread northward today and Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in southern California on Sunday. Winds could be particularly strong and gusty in and near areas of elevated terrain. Higher gusts are expected well inland and will persist even after the system becomes post-tropical. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal flooding along the western Baja California peninsula of Mexico near where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore winds, or east of the center if Hilary makes landfall. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Coastal flooding is possible along the northern coast of the Gulf of California Sunday through early Monday. TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur Sunday from mid-morning through the evening over parts of the lower Colorado River Valley, Mojave Desert, and Imperial Valley regions. SURF: Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the Baja California Peninsula and southern California over the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...HEAVY RAINS ALREADY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S... ...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING LIKELY... As of 3:00 PM MDT Sat Aug 19 the center of Hilary was located near 23.8, -114.1 with movement NNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 959 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 19 2023 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 192042 TCMEP4 HURRICANE HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092023 2100 UTC SAT AUG 19 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 114.1W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 959 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 25SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT.......230NE 200SE 120SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 390SE 330SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 114.1W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 113.9W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 26.4N 114.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...210NE 190SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 30.8N 116.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...200NE 180SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 36.4N 117.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.8N 114.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 20/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191740
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Aug 19 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Hilary, located a couple of hundred miles south of Punta
Eugenia, Mexico.

South of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form offshore of the coast of
Central America or southern Mexico during the early or middle part
of next week. Development of this system, if any, should be slow to
occur while it moves slowly toward the west-northwest or northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 18 Aug 2023 20:48:13 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 18 Aug 2023 21:23:04 GMT

Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri Aug 18 2023 702 WTPZ44 KNHC 182046 TCDEP4 Hurricane Hilary Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023 300 PM MDT Fri Aug 18 2023 Hilary remains a large and powerful major hurricane. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters sampled the northern portion of Hilary and found a higher minimum pressure than expected of 948 mb, 700 mb flight-level winds of 113 kt, and peak SFMR surface winds of 93 kt. However, the aircraft did not sample the southern half of the circulation, which currently has some of the deepest convection. Blending the available aircraft data and latest satellite intensity estimates yields an initial intensity of 115 kt. Hilary continues to slowly bend to the right, and the initial motion is northwestward or 315/10 kt. A general north-northwest to north motion with a steady increase in forward speed is expected tonight and through the weekend as the system is steered by pronounced steering flow between a strong subtropical ridge over the south-central U.S. and a mid- to upper-level low off the central California coast. The models have trended faster this cycle, and the NHC forecast has followed suit. Based on the latest forecast, the core of Hilary is expected to be very near the central portion of Baja California Saturday night and move inland over southern California by Sunday night. It should be noted that strong winds and heavy rains will occur well ahead of the center. Fluctuations in the hurricane's strength are expected through tonight, but Hilary is expected to begin weakening on Saturday as it moves over progressively cooler SSTs and into an environment of increasing shear and drier air. The NHC intensity forecast is lower than the previous one, partially due to the lower initial intensity, and a little higher than the HCCA and IVCN models. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with Hilary will begin well in advance of the center, from the Baja California Peninsula into the Southwestern United States. Preparations for the impacts of flooding from rainfall should be completed as soon as possible, as heavy rain will increase ahead of the center on Saturday. In the Southwestern United States, flash, urban, and arroyo flooding is expected, with the potential for dangerous and locally catastrophic impacts. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the hurricane warning area along the west-central coast of the Baja California Peninsula Saturday night and are possible in the Hurricane Watch area. 3. Tropical storm conditions are possible by late Sunday in portions of southern California where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. 4. Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, the Baja California peninsula, and south California over the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 18.7N 112.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 20.3N 113.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 22.6N 114.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 25.6N 115.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 29.4N 116.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 21/0600Z 34.1N 117.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 72H 21/1800Z 39.3N 117.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 18 2023 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 182046 PWSEP4 HURRICANE HILARY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092023 2100 UTC FRI AUG 18 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HILARY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT OXNARD CA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) X(15) SANTA CRUZ IS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) LONG BEACH/LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) X(27) X(27) LONG BEACH/LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LONG BEACH/LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) S CATALINA IS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) X(27) X(27) S CATALINA IS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) S CATALINA IS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAN DIEGO CA 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 43(50) X(50) X(50) SAN DIEGO CA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) SAN DIEGO CA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) YUMA AZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) TIJUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 33(35) X(35) X(35) TIJUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ENSENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) 19(19) 42(61) X(61) X(61) ENSENADA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) X(17) X(17) ENSENADA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 2(23) X(23) X(23) IS GUADALUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X 1( 1) 37(38) 52(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) PUNTA EUGENIA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 46(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) PUNTA EUGENIA 64 X X( X) X( X) 21(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) P ABREOJOS 34 X 5( 5) 58(63) 11(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 10(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) P ABREOJOS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 6 5(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) SAN JOSE CABO 34 5 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) LA PAZ 34 3 8(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) LORETO 34 X 6( 6) 10(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 4(18) X(18) X(18) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 110W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA SOCORRO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA SOCORRO 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA CLARION 34 13 3(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) 20N 115W 34 49 4(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) 20N 115W 50 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 25N 115W 34 1 29(30) 65(95) 1(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) 25N 115W 50 X 2( 2) 73(75) 3(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) 25N 115W 64 X X( X) 46(46) 3(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 30N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri Aug 18 2023 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 182046 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Hilary Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023 300 PM MDT Fri Aug 18 2023 ...HILARY REMAINS A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... ...LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLOODING LIKELY OVER MUCH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.7N 112.2W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM W OF SOCORRO ISLAND ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has upgraded the Hurricane Watch to a Hurricane Warning on the west coast of Baja California northward to Cabo San Quintin and upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning north of Loreto on the east coast of Baja California and north of Guaymas in mainland Mexico. A Tropical Storm Watch has been extended westward from the Orange/Los Angeles County Line to Point Mugu. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Quintin A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San Quintin to Ensenada A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos southward * Baja California peninsula entire east coast * Mainland Mexico north of Guaymas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to Guaymas * Baja California north of Ensenada to the California/Mexico border * California/Mexico border to Point Mugu * Catalina Island A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the southwestern U.S. should monitor the progress of Hilary. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hilary was located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 112.2 West. Hilary is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest is expected tonight, followed by a faster motion toward the north Saturday night and Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Hilary will move close to the west coast of the Baja California peninsula over the weekend and reach southern California by Sunday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Hilary is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are likely through tonight. Weakening is expected to begin by Saturday, but Hilary will still be a hurricane when it approaches the west coast of the Baja California peninsula Saturday night and Sunday. Hilary is expected to weaken to a tropical storm by late Sunday before it reaches southern California. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 948 mb (28.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hilary can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml. RAINFALL: Hilary is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts up to 10 inches, across portions of the Baja California Peninsula through Sunday night. Flash and urban flooding, locally catastrophic, will be possible, especially in the northern portions of the peninsula. Heavy rainfall in association with Hilary is expected to impact the Southwestern United States through next Wednesday, peaking on Sunday and Monday. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of 10 inches, are expected across portions of southern California and southern Nevada. Dangerous to locally catastrophic flooding will be possible. Elsewhere across portions of the Western United States, rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected, resulting in localized flash flooding. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area beginning Saturday night and are possible within the hurricane watch by early Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area tonight, and are possible within the watch area in Mexico on Saturday and Sunday and in southern California beginning late Sunday. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal flooding along the western Baja California peninsula of Mexico near where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore winds, or east of the center if Hilary makes landfall. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, the Baja California peninsula, and south California over the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...HILARY REMAINS A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... ...LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLOODING LIKELY OVER MUCH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK... As of 3:00 PM MDT Fri Aug 18 the center of Hilary was located near 18.7, -112.2 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 948 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 18 2023 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 182045 TCMEP4 HURRICANE HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092023 2100 UTC FRI AUG 18 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 112.2W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 45NE 40SE 25SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT.......240NE 200SE 110SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 360SE 300SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 112.2W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 111.9W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 20.3N 113.2W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 40SE 25SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...240NE 200SE 110SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 22.6N 114.1W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...230NE 190SE 130SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 25.6N 115.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...220NE 180SE 130SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 29.4N 116.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...200NE 170SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 34.1N 117.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 39.3N 117.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 112.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 19/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181747
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Aug 18 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Hilary, located less than 400 miles south-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

South of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form offshore of the coast of
southern Mexico early next week. Some gradual development of this
system is possible thereafter while it moves slowly toward the
west-northwest or northwest, generally parallel to the coast of
southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Bucci

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 17 Aug 2023 21:13:39 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 17 Aug 2023 21:29:47 GMT

Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Aug 17 2023 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 172056 TCDEP4 Hurricane Hilary Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023 300 PM MDT Thu Aug 17 2023 Hilary has an impressive appearance on satellite imagery. The eye, which is becoming better defined, is surrounded by very cold cloud tops in the CDO. There are numerous convective banding features, especially over the eastern semicircle of the circulation. Upper-level outflow is well-defined over all but the northwestern quadrant of the circulation. Recent objective Dvorak T-numbers support an intensity of about 95 kt, which is used for this advisory. The hurricane continues to move on a west-northwestward track with an initial motion estimate of 300/13 kt. Global models indicate that a mid-tropospheric ridge currently situated to the north of Hilary will shift eastward over the next few days while a cutoff low remains near the California coast. This should result in a steering pattern that will cause the system to gradually turn toward the northwest, north-northwest, and north with increasing forward speed during the next 72 hours. The official forecast track has not changed much from the past few advisory packages, and is a blend of the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus solutions. Since the forecast track is roughly paralleling the coastline north of the central Baja peninsula to the California border, it nearly impossible to know at this point if the center will remain just offshore or move over the peninsula before reaching the southwestern United States. Hilary is over very warm waters, near 30 deg C, with extremely low vertical wind shear and a moist mid- to low-level atmospheric environment. Therefore additional intensification is highly likely for the next day or so. The various SHIPS rapid intensification (RI) indices continue to show high probabilities of RI during the next day or so. The most likely indicated intensity increase is around 25 kt over the next 24 hours, which is also shown in the NHC forecast. Later in the forecast period, cooler waters and land interaction should result in some weakening. The official wind speed forecast remain near or above latest HCCA guidance. The surface circulation is likely to be dissipated by day 5, but a day 5 forecast point (as a remnant low) is still provided to maintain a forecast track over the southwestern United States. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with Hilary may produce areas of flash flooding and result in landslides over portions of Baja California Peninsula from late Friday into late Sunday. Rainfall impacts from Hilary within the Southwestern United States are expected to peak this weekend into Monday. Flash, urban, and arroyo flooding is possible with the potential for significant impacts. 2. The threat of hurricane-force wind impacts is increasing along the west-central coast of the Baja California Peninsula and hurricane watches could be issued for a portion of that area tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread across the southern portion of the Baja California Peninsula by late Friday where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 3. The threat of significant wind impacts continues to increase for the northern portions of the Baja California Peninsula and the Southwestern United States, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. Although it is too soon to determine the location and magnitude of these impacts, interests in these areas should monitor the progress of Hilary and updates to the forecast. Watches could be issued for portions of this area on Friday. 4. Large swells from Hilary will spread northward along the coast of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula. These swells will reach the Gulf of California and northern portions of the Baja California Peninsula later this weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 16.1N 108.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 17.0N 110.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 18.4N 112.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 20.3N 113.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 22.4N 113.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 20/0600Z 25.0N 114.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 20/1800Z 28.5N 115.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 21/1800Z 35.4N 118.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 22/1800Z 43.0N 120.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 17 2023 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 172055 PWSEP4 HURRICANE HILARY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092023 2100 UTC THU AUG 17 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HILARY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT OXNARD CA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 1(27) OXNARD CA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) OXNARD CA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SANTA CRUZ IS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 1(24) SANTA CRUZ IS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) SANTA CRUZ IS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) LONG BEACH/LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) 1(36) LONG BEACH/LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) LONG BEACH/LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) S CATALINA IS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 36(37) 1(38) S CATALINA IS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 1(17) S CATALINA IS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) SAN DIEGO CA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 46(49) 1(50) SAN DIEGO CA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) X(19) SAN DIEGO CA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) YUMA AZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) TIJUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 34(35) X(35) TIJUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) TIJUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ENSENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 49(59) 1(60) ENSENADA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) X(26) ENSENADA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 13(32) X(32) IS GUADALUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) IS GUADALUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 86(87) 3(90) X(90) PUNTA EUGENIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 57(57) 3(60) X(60) PUNTA EUGENIA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 2(32) X(32) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 77(82) 1(83) X(83) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 47(47) 1(48) X(48) P ABREOJOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) X(25) X(25) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 8(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 6(17) X(17) X(17) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 20(25) 1(26) X(26) LORETO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 13(28) X(28) P PENASCO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) P PENASCO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 2(25) X(25) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 83 1(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) 20N 110W 34 16 44(60) 5(65) 1(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) 20N 110W 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 67 32(99) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA SOCORRO 50 3 71(74) 2(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X 24(24) 3(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) ISLA CLARION 34 2 10(12) 12(24) 2(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) ISLA CLARION 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 115W 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 34 X 5( 5) 32(37) 9(46) 1(47) X(47) X(47) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 70(89) X(89) X(89) 25N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 60(63) 1(64) X(64) 25N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 40(40) X(40) X(40) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 30N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) X(15) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Aug 17 2023 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 172055 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Hilary Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023 300 PM MDT Thu Aug 17 2023 ...HILARY APPROACHING MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 108.9W ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Watch northward on the west coast of the Baja California peninsula to Punta Abreojos, and northward on the east coast of the Baja California peninsula to Loreto. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico from Cabo San Lazaro southward * Baja California Sur Mexico from Los Barriles southward A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Cabo San Lazaro to Punta Abreojos * North of Los Barriles to Loreto A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere on the Baja California peninsula, along the coast of northwestern mainland Mexico, and the southwestern United States coastline should closely monitor the progress of Hilary. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required for portions of these areas later tonight and Friday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hilary was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 108.9 West. Hilary is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the northwest is expected Friday morning, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest and north on Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Hilary will approach the Baja California peninsula over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Hilary is likely to become a major hurricane later today. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Hilary is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts up to 10 inches, across portions of the Baja California Peninsula through Sunday night. Flash flooding, locally significant, will be possible. Heavy rainfall in association with Hilary is expected to impact the Southwestern United States from Friday through early next week, peaking on Sunday and Monday. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated amounts in excess of 8 inches, will be possible across portions of southern California and southern Nevada. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area by late Friday, and are possible within the watch area by early Saturday. SURF: Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula over the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch