National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 07 2023 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 072037 PWSEP1 HURRICANE JOVA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112023 2100 UTC THU SEP 07 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOVA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 125 KTS...145 MPH...230 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 34 53 35(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) 20N 120W 50 2 25(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) 20N 120W 64 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 125W 34 X 8( 8) 55(63) 3(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) 20N 125W 50 X 1( 1) 12(13) 3(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 3(15) 1(16) X(16) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 5(25) X(25) 25N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER KELLY

Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Sep 07 2023 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 072036 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Jova Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023 200 PM PDT Thu Sep 07 2023 ...MAJOR HURRICANE JOVA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.7N 117.3W ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jova was located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 117.3 West. Jova is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Jova is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is forecast to begin later tonight and continue through the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 941 mb (27.79 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Kelly

...MAJOR HURRICANE JOVA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 2:00 PM PDT Thu Sep 7 the center of Jova was located near 17.7, -117.3 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 941 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 145 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 07 2023 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 072035 TCMEP1 HURRICANE JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112023 2100 UTC THU SEP 07 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 117.3W AT 07/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 941 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 90SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 390SE 180SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 117.3W AT 07/2100Z AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 116.6W FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 18.6N 119.4W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 19.8N 122.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 21.0N 124.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 22.4N 126.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 23.6N 127.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 24.5N 129.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 20SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 25.0N 131.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 24.2N 133.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 117.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 071709
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Sep 7 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Jova, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 06 Sep 2023 20:40:26 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 06 Sep 2023 20:40:27 GMT

Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Sep 06 2023 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 062038 TCDEP1 Hurricane Jova Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023 300 PM MDT Wed Sep 06 2023 Jova continues to rapidly intensify this afternoon. High-resolution 1-minute GOES visible and infrared imagery depicts a strengthening major hurricane with a pinhole eye surrounded by very deep convection. As expected with a small eye forming, satellite intensity estimates have increased this afternoon to T6.0 from TAFB. Given the deep convection and small pinhole eye, the initial intensity for this advisory is set to 115 kt. Jova continues to rapidly intensify, with a 60-kt increase over the past 24 hours. Environmental conditions continue to be conducive for rapid intensification (RI), with low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures along the forecast track. Statistical models, DTOPS and SHIPS, continue to show high probabilities above the climatological mean for RI to continue during the next 12 to 24 hours. Therefore, following these statistical models and RI probabilities, the peak intensity forecast has been raised to 135 kt. After that time, hard-to-predict eyewall replacement cycles could cause some fluctuations in intensity. The intensity forecast lies above the consensus aids in the short term, given the favorable environmental conditions. In about 2 to 3 days, Jova is forecast to cross over much cooler SSTs and encounter some drier mid-level air, which should induce weakening. Jova is moving a little bit faster with an initial motion of west-northwestward at 13 kt. Jova is moving along the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over northern Mexico. The hurricane is expected to continue moving west-northwestward as it rounds the southwestern edge of the high through the forecast period. The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory, except for a slightly faster forward speed. The forecast lies between the faster HCCA, and the TVCE consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 14.9N 111.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 15.6N 113.7W 135 KT 155 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 16.7N 116.3W 130 KT 150 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 17.8N 118.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 19.0N 121.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 09/0600Z 20.3N 124.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 21.7N 126.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 24.0N 129.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 11/1800Z 25.4N 133.4W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Sep 06 2023 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 062037 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Jova Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023 300 PM MDT Wed Sep 06 2023 ...JOVA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY FOUR MAJOR HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 111.7W ABOUT 565 MI...910 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jova was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 111.7 West. Jova is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through late this week. Maximum sustained winds have rapidly increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Jova is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Jova is expected to continue strengthening rapidly during the 12 to 24 hours. In a couple of days, Jova is forecast to start weakening. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb (28.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Kelly/Brown

...JOVA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY FOUR MAJOR HURRICANE... As of 3:00 PM MDT Wed Sep 6 the center of Jova was located near 14.9, -111.7 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 953 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 06 2023 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 062037 PWSEP1 HURRICANE JOVA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112023 2100 UTC WED SEP 06 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOVA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA CLARION 34 X 20(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) 15N 115W 34 16 60(76) 1(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) 15N 115W 50 X 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 15N 115W 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 18(18) 50(68) 2(70) X(70) X(70) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 73(81) 1(82) X(82) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 49(49) X(49) X(49) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) X(28) X(28) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 5(16) X(16) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) X(13) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 35(37) 8(45) 25N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 3(13) 25N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) $$ FORECASTER KELLY/BROWN

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 06 2023 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 062036 TCMEP1 HURRICANE JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112023 2100 UTC WED SEP 06 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 111.7W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 953 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT.......110NE 100SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 330SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 111.7W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 111.1W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 15.6N 113.7W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 16.7N 116.3W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...160NE 180SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 17.8N 118.9W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 180SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 19.0N 121.6W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 20.3N 124.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 21.7N 126.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 24.0N 129.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 25.4N 133.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 111.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY/BROWN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 061718
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Sep 6 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Jova, located about 600 miles south of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Brown

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 05 Sep 2023 20:52:07 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 05 Sep 2023 21:29:32 GMT

Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Sep 05 2023 742 WTPZ41 KNHC 052049 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Jova Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023 300 PM MDT Tue Sep 05 2023 Jova continues to look better organized on visible and infrared satellite imagery, with sharp curved banding on the south side of the system wrapping into the center. Deep convection has continued over the center with cold cloud tops near -80C. ASCAT and GMI microwave instruments both sampled Jova this afternoon, and indicated that the low-level center has redeveloped farther south than indicated in the previous advisory, under the burst of deep convection. The GMI 89-GHz microwave imagery depicted a mid-level eye-wall feature starting to develop. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were at T3.5 and T3.0, respectively, with this advisory, and objective ADT estimates were around 50 kt. Given the mid-level feature depicted on microwave imagery and the improved structure, the initial intensity leans toward the higher satellite estimates at 55kt. The initial motion is a little uncertain given the relocation of the low-level center, but an average motion is west-northwestward around 8 kt. Jova is forecast to continue on a general west-northwest motion the next several days along the southern side of a ridge extending westward over the southwestern United States. The track guidance is in fairly good agreement, with the main differences being on the forward speed of Jova in the short term. The NHC forecast is shifted slightly south of the previous one, given the re-formation of the center southward, and lies near the consensus aids. Jova is in a favorable environment to rapidly intensify, with relatively low vertical wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures and moist mid-level RH values. The various model Rapid Intensification (RI) indices are quite high compared to the climatological mean, and the NHC forecast depicts rapid intensification. Jova is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane on Wednesday and into a major hurricane in about 36-48 h. The intensity forecast lies at the higher end of the guidance envelope given the favorable parameters and above climatological mean for RI, closest to the SHIPS guidance. Later in the forecast period, the system is forecast to move over a sharp SST gradient with much cooler ocean temperatures inducing a weakening trend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 12.9N 108.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 13.3N 109.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 14.3N 111.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 15.1N 114.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 16.2N 116.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 08/0600Z 17.3N 118.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 18.8N 121.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 09/1800Z 21.5N 126.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 10/1800Z 23.5N 130.7W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly/Blake

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 05 2023 128 FOPZ11 KNHC 052049 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM JOVA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112023 2100 UTC TUE SEP 05 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOVA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 1 30(31) 2(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 63(64) 26(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) 24(24) 36(60) 1(61) X(61) X(61) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) 11(11) 27(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 1(22) X(22) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 54(55) 4(59) X(59) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 3(23) X(23) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 2(12) X(12) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 60(66) 1(67) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 33(34) 1(35) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) X(17) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 4(15) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 32(35) 25N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 25N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) $$ FORECASTER KELLY/BLAKE

Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Sep 05 2023 127 WTPZ31 KNHC 052049 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jova Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023 300 PM MDT Tue Sep 05 2023 ...JOVA STRENGTHENS SOME MORE... ...FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.9N 108.3W ABOUT 700 MI...1125 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jova was located near latitude 12.9 North, longitude 108.3 West. Jova is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A general west-northwestward motion is expected during the next several days. The system is forecast to pass well south and west of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Jova is forecast to rapidly intensify and is expected to become a hurricane on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Kelly/Blake

...JOVA STRENGTHENS SOME MORE... ...FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE... As of 3:00 PM MDT Tue Sep 5 the center of Jova was located near 12.9, -108.3 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 05 2023 142 WTPZ21 KNHC 052048 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112023 2100 UTC TUE SEP 05 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 108.3W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 108.3W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 108.0W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 13.3N 109.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 14.3N 111.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 15.1N 114.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 16.2N 116.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 110SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 17.3N 118.9W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...190NE 190SE 110SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 18.8N 121.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 160SE 110SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 21.5N 126.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 23.5N 130.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.9N 108.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY/BLAKE

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 051747
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Sep 5 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jova, located several hundred miles offshore
of the southwestern coast of Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Blake

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 051747
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Sep 5 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jova, located several hundred miles offshore
of the southwestern coast of Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Blake