National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 24 2023 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 242037 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142023 2100 UTC SUN SEP 24 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 X 11(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 1100 AM HST Sun Sep 24 2023 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 242037 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142023 1100 AM HST Sun Sep 24 2023 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 125.5W ABOUT 1145 MI...1845 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen-E was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 125.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion should continue at a little faster forward speed through Monday. A turn toward the west-southwest is expected on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is forecast to become a remnant low tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Roberts

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW TONIGHT... As of 11:00 AM HST Sun Sep 24 the center of Fourteen-E was located near 15.2, -125.5 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 24 2023 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 242037 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142023 2100 UTC SUN SEP 24 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 125.5W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 125.5W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 124.9W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 15.3N 127.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 15.1N 130.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 14.7N 132.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 13.8N 135.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 12.7N 139.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 11.5N 142.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 125.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241748
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Sep 24 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Fourteen-E, located a little over 1000 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 23 Sep 2023 20:40:20 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 23 Sep 2023 21:35:55 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM HST Sat Sep 23 2023 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 232039 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142023 1100 AM HST Sat Sep 23 2023 An area of disturbed weather located well southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula became rapidly better organized this morning. SSMIS microwave imagery at 1427 UTC showed that deep convection had organized into a very well-defined band, with what appeared to be a developing low-level center just to the north of the convection. Since then, 1-minute visible GOES-18 has been very helpful in confirming the development of a well-defined surface circulation. Therefore, advisories have been initiated on Tropical Depression Fourteen-E. The initial maximum sustained wind estimate is highly uncertain, but is based on a 30 kt Dvorak current intensity analysis from TAFB. The depression appears to be quite small, and is therefore not being well-resolved by most global models. The center of the cyclone appears to be just north of a tight band of deep convection. Its small size and an expected moderate shear environment could make the cyclone susceptible to rapid changes in intensity that are difficult to anticipate. The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the model consensus for the next 48 h, most similar to the DSHP model, but still shows only slight strengthening during that time frame. After about 72 h, wind shear is expected to increase quickly, which should cause the small cyclone to weaken. The system is subsequently expected to dissipate into a trough after about 4 days. The initial motion estimate is west at 12 kt. An extensive ridge extending over most of the eastern North Pacific should keep the depression on a similar heading for the next 4 days until the system dissipates. Although the strength of the depression does not appear to be captured well by the global models, they do appear to have very reasonable track forecasts that are in good agreement with one another. The initial NHC track forecast is near the middle of the average-spread guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 13.9N 120.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 14.3N 122.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 14.7N 125.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 14.9N 127.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 14.9N 130.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 26/0600Z 14.6N 133.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 14.3N 136.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 27/1800Z 14.0N 142.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 23 2023 291 FOPZ14 KNHC 232038 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142023 2100 UTC SAT SEP 23 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 X 48(48) 3(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) 15N 125W 50 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 39(43) 3(46) X(46) X(46) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 1(24) X(24) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 23 2023 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 232038 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142023 2100 UTC SAT SEP 23 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 120.4W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 120.4W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 119.7W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 14.3N 122.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 14.7N 125.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 14.9N 127.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 14.9N 130.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 14.6N 133.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 14.3N 136.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 14.0N 142.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 120.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

Issued at 1100 AM HST Sat Sep 23 2023 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 232038 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142023 1100 AM HST Sat Sep 23 2023 ...NEW DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.9N 120.4W ABOUT 925 MI...1490 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen-E was located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 120.4 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight intensification is expected during the next couple of days. The system could become a tropical storm as soon as this afternoon or tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

...NEW DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA... As of 11:00 AM HST Sat Sep 23 the center of Fourteen-E was located near 13.9, -120.4 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 231729
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Sep 23 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central East Pacific (EP97):
An area of low pressure is located several hundred miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Recent
microwave imagery indicates that showers and thunderstorms
associated with this system have become better organized, though it
remains unclear if a well-defined surface circulation has formed.
Regardless, further development of this system is anticipated and a
tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of
days. The system is moving westward at 15 to 20 mph, and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Papin

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221731
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Sep 22 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Kenneth, located about 1000 miles west of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Central East Pacific:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula continue to show signs of organization. Further
development of the disturbance is likely, and a tropical depression
is expected to form over the weekend or early next week while the
system moves generally westward across the central and western parts
of the eastern Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 21 Sep 2023 20:41:17 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 21 Sep 2023 21:35:02 GMT

Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Sep 21 2023 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 212040 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132023 200 PM PDT Thu Sep 21 2023 Kenneth is a sheared tropical cyclone. The small area of active convection associated with the storm has been displaced over 90 n mi from its exposed low-level center by southwesterly shear. This deteriorating satellite presentation has caused the intensity estimates to decrease today. Based on a blend of the latest objective and subjective Dvorak estimates, the initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt. Recent satellite images indicate Kenneth has begun its northward turn, and the initial motion is north-northwestward at 330/6 kt. A generally northward motion should continue for the next couple of days as the system moves within the flow between a mid-level trough to the northwest and a mid-level ridge over central Mexico. There were no major changes to the track guidance this cycle, and the latest NHC forecast is similar to the previous prediction. While simulated satellite imagery from the global models suggest Kenneth could produce intermittent bursts of sheared convection during the next day or so, the environmental conditions (stronger shear, progressively cooler SSTs, and a drier and more stable airmass) are not conducive for sustained convection going forward. Based on these factors and recent satellite trends, this forecast shows additional weakening with post-tropical/remnant low status in 24 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 17.9N 125.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 19.2N 126.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 20.9N 125.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 23/0600Z 22.3N 125.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 23/1800Z 23.4N 125.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 21 2023 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 212040 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132023 2100 UTC THU SEP 21 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KENNETH WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 125W 34 2 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Sep 21 2023 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 212039 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kenneth Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132023 200 PM PDT Thu Sep 21 2023 ...KENNETH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 125.7W ABOUT 1080 MI...1735 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kenneth was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 125.7 West. Kenneth is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northward motion is expected to begin later tonight and continue through Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Kenneth is expected to become a remnant low on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...KENNETH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... As of 2:00 PM PDT Thu Sep 21 the center of Kenneth was located near 17.9, -125.7 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 21 2023 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 212039 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132023 2100 UTC THU SEP 21 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 125.7W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 125.7W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 125.6W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 19.2N 126.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 20.9N 125.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 22.3N 125.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 23.4N 125.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 125.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211745
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Sep 21 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kenneth, located about 1100 miles west-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Central East Pacific:
A low pressure trough located several hundred miles south-southwest
of the southwestern coast of Mexico is producing a broad area of
showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is
possible over the next several days, and a tropical depression could
form by late this weekend or early next week while it moves
generally westward across the central and western part of the
eastern Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch