National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 132318
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Oct 13 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the early to
middle part of next week. Environmental conditions are forecast to
be conducive for additional development thereafter, and a tropical
depression could form by the middle to latter part of the week
while meandering well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 122311
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Oct 12 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the early to
middle part of next week. Thereafter, some gradual development is
possible while the system moves slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 112333
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Oct 11 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south of the southwestern coast of Mexico in the early to middle
parts of next week. Thereafter, some gradual development is
possible as the system moves generally north-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 10 Oct 2023 23:56:15 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 10 Oct 2023 20:11:27 GMT

Issued at 600 PM MDT Tue Oct 10 2023 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 102356 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Lidia Intermediate Advisory Number 31A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023 600 PM MDT Tue Oct 10 2023 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE LIDIA MAKES LANDFALL IN WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... ...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND FLOODING RAINFALL SPREADING INLAND OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.1N 105.5W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SSW OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Las Islas Marias * Manzanillo to El Roblito A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * El Roblito to Mazatlan * Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in west-central Mexico should monitor the progress of Lidia. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- Satellite imagery indicates that the eye of Lidia has made landfall along the coast of west-central Mexico near Las Penitas in the state of Jalisco around 550 PM MDT (2350 UTC) with maximum winds estimated to be near 140 mph (220 km/h). At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lidia was located on the coast near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 105.5 West. Lidia is moving toward the east-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). A slightly faster east-northeastward motion is expected through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Lidia will move inland over west-central Mexico tonight and Wednesday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Lidia is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Rapid weakening is expected as Lidia moves inland tonight and Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 942 mb (27.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lidia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml RAINFALL: Lidia is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local maxima of 12 inches through Wednesday across the state Nayarit, southern portions of the state of Sinaloa, and coastal portions of the state of Jalisco in western Mexico. These rains will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain near the coast. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the south of where Lidia made landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring in portions of west-central Mexico within the hurricane warning area. Tropical storm conditions are occuring in portions of the tropical storm warning areas. SURF: Swells generated by Lidia will affect the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California peninsula for the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Bucci/Brown

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 102323
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Oct 10 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Lidia, located near the west-central coast of Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE LIDIA MAKES LANDFALL IN WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... ...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND FLOODING RAINFALL SPREADING INLAND OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... As of 6:00 PM MDT Tue Oct 10 the center of Lidia was located near 20.1, -105.5 with movement ENE at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 942 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 140 mph.

Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Oct 10 2023 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 102009 TCDEP5 Hurricane Lidia Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023 300 PM MDT Tue Oct 10 2023 Lidia became a major hurricane around 1800 UTC and has continued to intensify since that time. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters recently found that the minimum pressure has fallen significantly to 950 mb. In addition, the maximum 700-mb flight-level wind measured by the aircraft was 116 kt, which adjusts to about 105 kt at the surface. The maximum SFMR surface wind reported was 108 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased to 110 kt. Lidia has strengthened by a very impressive 50 kt over the past 24 hours. Although the eye has just become evident in geostationary satellite images, it has been clearly seen in microwave data for much of the day. Deep convection has been increasing in coverage and magnitude, and has become more symmetric during the past few hours. The outer rain bands of Lidia are beginning to spread across portions of west-central Mexico, and weather conditions are expected to steadily worsen into the evening. The center of Lidia is forecast to make landfall in west-central Mexico later this evening. As mentioned above, Lidia has rapidly strengthened over very warm SSTs and in a favorable upper-level wind pattern during the past day or so. Since the environmental conditions are not expected to change, Lidia could reach category 4 strength before it makes landfall. Rapid weakening is expected once the center moves inland, and Lidia is forecast to dissipate on Wednesday over the rugged terrain of central Mexico. Key Messages: 1. Lidia is expected to make landfall in west-central Mexico as a major hurricane this evening. Life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected within the Hurricane Warning area. 2. Heavy rains from Lidia will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain across the the state of Nayarit, southern portions of the state of Sinaloa, and coastal portions of the state of Jalisco in western Mexico. 3. A dangerous storm surge is expected near and to the south of where the center of Lidia moves onshore along the coast of west-central Mexico. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. 4. Swells from Lidia will cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions along the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California peninsula during the next day or so. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 19.6N 106.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 21.2N 104.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 24H 11/1800Z 23.2N 100.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 10 2023 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 102009 PWSEP5 HURRICANE LIDIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152023 2100 UTC TUE OCT 10 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LIDIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLAS MARIAS 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN BLAS 34 49 X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) P VALLARTA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) P VALLARTA 50 88 X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) P VALLARTA 64 19 X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) MANZANILLO 34 45 X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 10 2023 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 102008 TCMEP5 HURRICANE LIDIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152023 2100 UTC TUE OCT 10 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 106.6W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 25SE 20SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 120SE 100SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 240SE 210SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 106.6W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 107.1W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 21.2N 104.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 10SE 10SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 23.2N 100.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 106.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 11/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 700 PM CDT Mon Oct 09 2023 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 092357 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Max Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162023 700 PM CDT Mon Oct 09 2023 ...MAX MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 101.2W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Acapulco to Lazaro Cardenas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Max was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 101.2 West. Max has been moving due north over the last several hours, but it is expected to resume a motion toward the north-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). This motion is expected to continue until dissipation as the cyclone moves further inland over southern Mexico. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected to continue as Max moves farther inland, with the storm expected to dissipate over Mexico late tonight or on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Max can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP1.shtml RAINFALL: Max is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local maxima of 12 inches through Tuesday across the states of Guerrero and Michoacan. These rains will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain near the coast. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning area and expected to continue through this evening. SURF: Swells generated by Max will affect the southern coast of Mexico for the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Hogsett/Brown

...MAX MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY... As of 7:00 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 the center of Max was located near 17.9, -101.2 with movement NNE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 09 Oct 2023 23:56:48 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 09 Oct 2023 21:29:26 GMT

Issued at 600 PM MDT Mon Oct 09 2023 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 092356 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lidia Intermediate Advisory Number 27A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023 600 PM MDT Mon Oct 09 2023 ...LIDIA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT... ...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO ON TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 110.6W ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Las Islas Marias * Playa Perula to Escuinapa A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Escuinapa to Bahia Tempehuaya * Manzanillo to Playa Perula A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in west-central Mexico should monitor the progress of Lidia. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 110.6 West. Lidia is moving toward the east-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A faster east-northeastward motion is expected this evening and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Lidia should approach Las Islas Marias on Tuesday, and move inland over west-central Mexico late Tuesday or Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast tonight and Tuesday, and Lidia is expected to be a hurricane when it approaches Las Islas Marias and the coast of west-central Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lidia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml RAINFALL: Lidia is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local maxima of 12 inches through Wednesday across the state Nayarit, southern portions of the state of Sinaloa, and coastal portions of the state of Jalisco in western Mexico. These rains will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain near the coast. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the south of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the warning area on Tuesday, with winds expected to first reach tropical storm strength by Tuesday morning, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning areas beginning Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Lidia will affect the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California peninsula for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

...LIDIA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT... ...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO ON TUESDAY... As of 6:00 PM MDT Mon Oct 9 the center of Lidia was located near 18.2, -110.6 with movement ENE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 09 Oct 2023 23:56:21 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 09 Oct 2023 21:23:01 GMT

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 092318
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Oct 9 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Lidia, located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on Tropical
Storm Max, located inland near the southern coast of Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Brown

Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Oct 09 2023 955 WTPZ41 KNHC 092037 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Max Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162023 400 PM CDT Mon Oct 09 2023 Max is estimated to have made landfall around 1800 UTC just to the west of Puerto Vicente Guerrero in the Mexican Provence of Guerrero. Data received from the a Mexican surface observing site at that location just after the intermediate advisory suggested the tropical storm might have been a little stronger than initially assessed, reporting sustained tropical-storm-force winds with a minimum pressure of 994 mb. Thus, the 18 UTC working best track intensity was adjusted to 55 kt with a 991 mb pressure. Since that time, the satellite structure has begun to degrade, likely as the surface circulation begins to be disrupted by the high rugged terrain of south-central Mexico. Thus, some weakening is assumed since that time with the current intensity assessed at 50 kt. Further rapid weakening is anticipated as the small tropical cyclone moves further inland, and by this time tomorrow Max is likely to be little more than a remnant mid-level circulation moving poleward with enhanced moisture over central Mexico. The initial motion still appears to be north-northeast at 030/5 kt. This motion should continue until Max dissipates over the higher terrain of Mexico. The track guidance following the low-level center quickly lose the system beyond 12 h, and the updated track forecast is little changed from the prior one. Even as Max dissipates, its mid-level remains and larger moisture plume will likely result in significant upslope rainfall, leading to flash flooding and mudslides pushing into inland Mexico. Key Messages: 1. Max is forecast to continue bringing tropical storm conditions through this evening to portions of the southern coast of Mexico where a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect. 2. Heavy rains from Max will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain across the states of Guerrero and Michoacan. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 17.6N 101.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 18.2N 100.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Oct 09 2023 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 092037 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023 300 PM MDT Mon Oct 09 2023 Satellite images indicate that Lidia is becoming better organized. Deep convection is consolidating near the center and it appears that an inner core is forming. In addition, a large curved band has developed on the south and east sides of the circulation. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters investigated Lidia earlier this afternoon and found that the minimum pressure was quite low, around 985 mb. A combination of the aircraft flight-level wind and SFMR data support increasing the wind speed to 60 kt, and is possible that this is conservative. The aircraft data and recent satellite images suggest that the center has reformed to the south of the previous positions. Since the center of Lidia appears to have reformed, the initial motion of 065/7 kt is uncertain. Water vapor images show a mid- to upper-level trough approaching Lidia, and that feature should steer the storm relatively quickly to the east-northeast toward west-central Mexico. The main change for this forecast cycle is associated with Lidia's reformation, which is roughly 1 degree south of the previous estimates. Based on the initial position adjustment, the new track forecast lies to the south of the previous prediction. This forecast is close to the consensus aids and roughly halfway between the fast GFS solution and the much slower ECMWF run. Based on the new forecast, Lidia is expected to reach the coast of Mexico Tuesday afternoon/evening. Since Lidia appears to be developing an inner core while moving into conducive environmental conditions, significant strengthening is forecast. The storm is expected to move over SSTs near 30 C and into a favorable upper-level wind pattern. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and is in good agreement with the hurricane regional models. Rapid weakening is forecast once Lidia moves inland due to the rugged terrain in west-central Mexico. Key Messages: 1. Lidia is forecast to strengthen before it reaches west-central Mexico, and hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area beginning Tuesday. 2. Heavy rains from Lidia will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain across the the state of Nayarit, southern portions of the state of Sinaloa, and coastal portions of the state of Jalisco in western Mexico. 3. A dangerous storm surge is expected near and to the south of where the center of Lidia moves over the Islas Marias and the coast of west-central Mexico. 4. Swells from Lidia will cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions along the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California peninsula during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 18.1N 110.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 18.7N 109.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 20.0N 107.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 21.8N 104.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 09 2023 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 092037 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM MAX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162023 2100 UTC MON OCT 09 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MAX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ZIHUATANEJO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN