National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Oct 2023 02:53:51 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Oct 2023 03:28:52 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 19 2023 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 190252 PWSEP2 HURRICANE NORMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172023 0300 UTC THU OCT 19 2023 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 23(29) 43(72) 2(74) 1(75) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 27(31) 2(33) 1(34) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) X(13) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 19(25) 43(68) 3(71) 1(72) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) 3(30) 1(31) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 31(40) 8(48) 2(50) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) X(12) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 5(13) 2(15) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) ISLAS MARIAS 34 2 3( 5) 10(15) 9(24) 4(28) 3(31) 1(32) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 9(18) 4(22) 3(25) SAN BLAS 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 5(11) 4(15) 2(17) 1(18) P VALLARTA 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 105W 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MANZANILLO 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) 1(10) X(10) 15N 110W 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 110W 34 2 19(21) 44(65) 17(82) 3(85) X(85) 1(86) 20N 110W 50 X 1( 1) 18(19) 24(43) 3(46) 1(47) X(47) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) 3(22) 1(23) X(23) ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 10(12) 18(30) 8(38) 3(41) 1(42) X(42) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

Issued at 900 PM MDT Wed Oct 18 2023 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 190252 TCDEP2 Hurricane Norma Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023 900 PM MDT Wed Oct 18 2023 Norma's rapid intensification continues. Microwave imagery from late this afternoon indicated that a very well-defined low- to mid-level eye has formed with a surrounding ring of shallow to moderate convection associated with rapid intensification. While that eye is not yet visible in conventional satellite imagery, subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB have increased to 77 kt and 90 kt, respectively, while recent objective evaluations from UW-CIMSS range from about 75 kt to 85 kt. Based on the whole of the data, the intensity for Norma has been raised to 80 kt. For the next 24 to 36 hours, the forecast for Norma appears to be relatively straightforward. Continued rapid strengthening appears likely tonight based on Norma's convective structure and the conducive surrounding environment. The hurricane should continue moving generally northward during that time, steered by a weak mid-level ridge to the east of Norma and an upper-level trough to its northwest. Short-term fluctuations in intensity due to eyewall replacement cycles will become possible starting tonight, but confidence in the forecast is reasonably high through 36 h. After that time, the uncertainty grows considerably. Southwesterly upper-level flow associated with the aforementioned upper-level trough will continue, but the mid- to lower-level steering will likely become light or even switch to northerly. The resulting increase in shear should cause Norma to weaken, but the rate of that weakening remains in doubt. As long as the hurricane retains its vertical depth, upper-level flow should keep it moving northward. However, once Norma weakens to the point that its steering is dominated by low- to mid-level flow, its forward speed should slow down considerably. It is possible, therefore, that Norma will stall just south of Baja California peninsula, a solution favored by the deterministic ECMWF and a number of its ensemble members. However, the hurricane models (HAFS-A/B, HMON, and HWRF), which should resolve the structure of Norma better than a global model, all indicate that the hurricane will retain its depth long enough to reach the Baja California peninsula. The NHC track and intensity forecasts favor the regional models, blending their latest consensus with the previous forecast to try to maintain continuity. The updated official track forecast is slightly faster than the previous one, but is generally similar despite the high uncertainty. Tropical storm or hurricane watches could be required for portions of the Baja California peninsula later tonight, and interests there should continue to monitor updates on Norma, especially since larger-than-normal changes to the forecast are possible due to the high uncertainty in this case. Key Messages: 1. Norma is forecast to continue rapidly strengthening tonight while it passes well offshore of southwestern Mexico. 2. There is a greater than normal uncertainty in the track and intensity forecasts for Norma later this week and this weekend when it is expected to approach the Baja California peninsula and western Mexico. Regardless of Norma's exact track or intensity, there is an increasing threat of wind and rainfall impacts to southern portions of Baja California Sur by Saturday, and watches could be required there later tonight or on Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 16.4N 108.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 17.2N 108.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 18.3N 108.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 19.3N 108.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 20.6N 109.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 21/1200Z 22.1N 109.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 23.0N 109.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 23/0000Z 23.5N 109.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 24/0000Z 24.0N 108.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 19 2023 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 190251 TCMEP2 HURRICANE NORMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172023 0300 UTC THU OCT 19 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 108.0W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......130NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 108.0W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 108.0W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.2N 108.1W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.3N 108.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.3N 108.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.6N 109.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.1N 109.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 23.0N 109.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 23.5N 109.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 24.0N 108.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 108.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

Issued at 900 PM MDT Wed Oct 18 2023 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 190251 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Norma Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023 900 PM MDT Wed Oct 18 2023 ...NORMA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 108.0W ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Norma. Watches could be required for portions of the area tonight or on Thursday. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Norma was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 108.0 West. Norma is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A northward to north-northwestward motion at a similar forward speed is anticipated for the next couple of days. A slower motion is forecast is expected by the weekend. On the forecast track, Norma could approach the southern portion of Baja California on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected tonight. Slight weakening is forecast to begin late this week or over the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Norma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml SURF: Swells generated by Norma are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, and will spread northward along the coast of western Mexico and toward Baja California Sur during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

...NORMA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... As of 9:00 PM MDT Wed Oct 18 the center of Norma was located near 16.4, -108.0 with movement N at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 975 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 182327
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Oct 18 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on strengthening
Hurricane Norma, located several hundred miles south-southeast of
Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.

South of Southern Mexico (EP91):
A weak area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of
the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing a few disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Any development of this system during the next couple
of days is expected to be slow to occur. However, environmental
conditions are expected to become more favorable for development
thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the
weekend or early next week. The disturbance is forecast to meander
for the next several days and then drift northward or northwestward
starting on Sunday or Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Oct 2023 02:40:15 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Oct 2023 02:40:15 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Oct 2023 02:40:15 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Oct 2023 03:22:41 GMT

Issued at 900 PM MDT Tue Oct 17 2023 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 180239 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Norma Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023 900 PM MDT Tue Oct 17 2023 Norma is becoming better organized on satellite imagery. There is a developing Central Dense Overcast with very cold cloud tops, and some convective banding is evident. Upper-level outflow is fairly well defined over the western semicircle of the circulation. The current intensity estimate is set at 45 kt in agreement with the latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. Based on recent center fixes, the motion is now northwestward, or around 305/7 kt. A weak mid-level ridge to the east of Norma should maintain a slow northwestward to north-northwestward track for the next 48 to 72 hours. Later in the forecast period, there is significant uncertainty in the track, since the model guidance at 3 to 5 days is not in very good agreement. The ECMWF and UKMET show a weakening cyclone moving along the western side of the guidance envelope whereas the GFS show a strong system moving much more to the northeast. The 4- and 5-day official forecast positions are close to the simple and corrected model consensus predictions. However there is low confidence in this forecast, given the spread in the model tracks. For the next couple of days, the storm should be in an atmospheric and oceanic environment that will be quite conducive for strengthening. The SHIPS Rapid Intensification (RI) indices and the DTOPS probabilities for RI suggest a high likelihood for significant strengthening during the next 48 hours or so. This is also reflected in the NHC intensity forecast, which explicitly shows RI in the earlier part of the period. In 3 to 5 days, higher south-southwesterly vertical wind shear and drier air is likely to inhibit strengthening. The official forecast is near or above the intensity model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 13.7N 107.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 14.4N 108.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 15.5N 108.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 16.5N 108.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 20/0000Z 17.3N 108.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 20/1200Z 18.2N 109.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 21/0000Z 19.2N 109.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 22/0000Z 21.3N 110.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 23/0000Z 22.5N 109.8W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 18 2023 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 180237 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM NORMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172023 0300 UTC WED OCT 18 2023 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 38(48) 20(68) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 15(29) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 35(43) 22(65) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 14(25) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 23(44) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 10(14) 11(25) 10(35) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 14(26) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 6(12) 6(18) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 3(10) 15N 105W 34 5 5(10) 4(14) 2(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 2(12) 2(14) CLIPPERTON IS 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 27 18(45) 6(51) 3(54) 3(57) 1(58) X(58) 15N 110W 50 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 110W 34 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 13(22) 50(72) 15(87) 3(90) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 31(33) 22(55) 3(58) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 17(32) 3(35) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 5( 5) 8(13) 15(28) 34(62) 8(70) 2(72) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 6(27) 2(29) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) 1(14) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 900 PM MDT Tue Oct 17 2023 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 180237 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Norma Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023 900 PM MDT Tue Oct 17 2023 ...NORMA STRENGTHENING... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 107.8W ABOUT 435 MI...695 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Norma was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 107.8 West. Norma is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a northwestward to north-northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast, and Norma is likely to become a hurricane on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...NORMA STRENGTHENING... As of 9:00 PM MDT Tue Oct 17 the center of Norma was located near 13.7, -107.8 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 18 2023 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 180235 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM NORMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172023 0300 UTC WED OCT 18 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 107.8W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 30SE 0SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 30SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 107.8W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 107.6W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.4N 108.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...130NE 60SE 30SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.5N 108.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.5N 108.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...160NE 120SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.3N 108.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...160NE 120SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.2N 109.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...160NE 120SE 80SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.2N 109.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 80SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 21.3N 110.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 22.5N 109.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 107.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 172324
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Oct 17 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Storm Norma, located several hundred miles south-southwest
of Manzanillo, Mexico.

South of Guatemala and Eastern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the coasts of
Guatemala and eastern Mexico in a couple of days. Gradual
development of this system is expected, and a tropical
depression is likely to form late this week or over the weekend
while the system meanders over the far eastern portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Norma are issued under WMO
header WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Norma are issued under WMO
header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Oct 2023 20:18:22 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Oct 2023 21:22:56 GMT

Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Oct 17 2023 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 172016 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Norma Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023 300 PM MDT Tue Oct 17 2023 Satellite imagery this afternoon depicts that the area the National Hurricane Center has been monitoring offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico (EP90) has become better organized. Showers and thunderstorms have been consolidating, with curved band features developing around a recently well-defined low-level center. Subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates are T2.5/T3.0 from TAFB and SAB, respectively. Given the improved satellite presentation and these intensity estimates, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Storm Norma with an initial intensity of 35 kt. Norma is in a fairly conducive environment for intensification. Low vertical wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures, and favorable upper-level diffluence will likely lead to steady to rapid strengthening for the next few days. DTOPS and SHIPS rapid intensification (RI) indices are between 60 to 70 percent for a 55 kt increase over the next 48 hours, and the NHC forecast is near that value, explicitly forecasting RI between 12 to 36 hours. Towards the end of the forecast, increasing vertical wind shear and potential drier air intrusions could cause the system to gradually weaken. The NHC forecast lies just below the HCCA HFIP corrected consensus aids, and it is noted that the HAFS-A/B hurricane regional models show a higher, but still plausible, peak intensity. Norma is moving west-northwestward at an estimated motion of 285/9 kt. The system is expected to turn more northwestward at a slightly slower forward speed during the next few days around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge. Towards the end of the forecast period as the system moves toward the Baja peninsula, there is a notable divergence among the model suite. A stronger vortex, as depicted in the GFS/CMC model, would be picked up by an approaching trough from the northwest and move the system northeastward towards the Baja peninsula. However, a weaker vortex would tend to meander south of the peninsula and be missed by the approaching trough, like the ECMWF/UKMET solutions. Since the NHC intensity forecast is on the strong side of the guidance, the official track is closer to the right side of the guidance envelope, more similar to the GFS and HCCA models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 13.2N 107.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 13.8N 108.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 15.0N 108.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 16.0N 108.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 16.9N 108.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 20/0600Z 17.8N 109.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 20/1800Z 18.7N 109.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 21/1800Z 20.9N 110.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 22/1800Z 22.5N 110.0W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 162330
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Oct 16 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP90):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located a few hundred miles offshore of the southwestern coast of
Mexico continue to show signs of organization. Environmental
conditions are conducive for further development of this system, and
a tropical depression is very likely to form within the next day or
so. This system is expected to move slowly west-northwestward and
then turn northwestward and northward late in the week offshore of
the coast of southwestern Mexico. Additional information on this
system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

South of Guatemala and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form south of the coasts of
Guatemala and southern Mexico in a few days. Gradual development
of the disturbance is expected, and a tropical depression
is likely to form late this week or over the weekend while the
system meanders over the far eastern portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Pasch

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 152318
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Oct 15 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is producing disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity extending several hundred miles south of the
southern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions are conducive
for development of this system, and a tropical depression is
expected to form in a few days while moving slowly westward and then
northwestward well offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

South of Guatemala and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form south of the coasts of
Guatemala and southern Mexico by the middle of the week. Gradual
development of the disturbance will be possible, and a tropical
depression could form late this week as the system meanders over
the far eastern portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 142328
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Oct 14 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south of the southwestern coast of Mexico in a few days. Subsequent
development of the system is likely, and a tropical depression is
expected to form during the middle to latter part of next week while
the system meanders well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

South of Guatemala and El Salvador:
An area of low pressure is expected to form south of the coasts of
Guatemala and El Salvador by the middle of next week. Gradual
development of the disturbance will be possible after that while the
system meanders over the far eastern portion of the eastern North
Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky