National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

862
ABPZ20 KNHC 172313
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri May 17 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Coast of Southwestern Mexico:
An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles
offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico continues to produce a
small area of showers and thunderstorms. Marginal environmental
conditions due to nearby dry air are likely to limit significant
development of this system as the low remains nearly stationary
during the next day or so. By late this weekend, the low is forecast
to interact or merge with another system to its east, and further
development is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

South of the Coast of Southern Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue several hundred
miles to the south of the coast of southern Mexico in association
with a trough of low pressure. Development of this system, if any,
should be slow to occur as it moves slowly westward during the next
few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 162315
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu May 16 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Coast of Southwestern Mexico:
A small area of low pressure located several hundred miles offshore
of the coast of southwestern Mexico is producing an area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of
this system is possible during the next day or so while it moves
little. By this weekend, the low is forecast to merge with another
system to its east.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

South of the Coast of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles to
the south of southern Mexico during the next day or two. Gradual
development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could
form over the weekend or early next week while the system moves
slowly to the west or west-northwest, remaining south of the coast
of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 161746
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu May 16 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Coast of Southwestern Mexico:
Satellite data indicate that a small area of low pressure located
several hundred miles offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico
is producing some disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some
gradual development is possible during the next day or so while the
low moves little. By this weekend, the system is forecast to merge
with another disturbance to its east.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

South of the Coast of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles to
the south of southern Mexico during the next couple of days. Gradual
development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could
form over the weekend or early next week while the system moves
slowly to the west or west-northwest, remaining south of the coast
of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Reinhart

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 161123
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu May 16 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Coast of Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles to
the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec within the next couple of days.
Gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical
depression could form over the weekend or early next week while the
system moves slowly to the west or west-northwest, remaining south
of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Reinhart

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 160509
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed May 15 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Coast of Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles to
the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec within the next couple of days.
Gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical
depression could form over the weekend while the system moves
slowly to the west-northwest or west, remaining south of the
coast of Mexico through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

&&

$$
Forecaster Bucci

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 141825
TWOEP

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 AM PDT Tue May 14 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss possible
development to the south of Mexico later this week.

South of the Coast of Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form along a trough several
hundred miles to the south or southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec
by the middle to latter portion of this week. Thereafter, some
gradual development of this system is possible as the low moves
slowly to the west-northwest, remaining south of the coast of Mexico
through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

The next Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued by 5 AM PDT
Wednesday.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Hagen

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 131920
TWOEP

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1220 PM PDT Mon May 13 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss possible
development to the south of Mexico later this week.

South of the Coast of Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form along a trough several
hundred miles to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by the middle
to latter portion of this week. Thereafter, some gradual development
of this system is possible as the low begins to move slowly to the
west-northwest, remaining south of the coast of Mexico through early
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 Hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be
issued by 2 PM PDT Tuesday, or earlier if conditions warrant.

$$
Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Oct 2023 02:50:08 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Oct 2023 03:22:56 GMT

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 29 2023 523 WTPZ44 KNHC 300249 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023 1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 29 2023 A small but concentrated convective burst has been persisting near the estimated center of the tropical cyclone tonight. After the prior advisory, we received a fortuitous GPM microwave pass valid at 2252 UTC that suggested the low-level circulation may have tightened up some but was located just south of the deepest convection. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were up to T2.5/35 kt form TAFB and T2.0/30 kt from SAB. The objective estimates from ADT, SATCON, and D-PRINT/MINT are all between 34-36 kt, and thus the latest advisory is set at 35 kt this advisory, upgrading TD19-E to Tropical Storm Pilar. A more pronounced east-northeastward motion appears to be starting, estimated at 060/4 kt. A continued motion to the east-northwest is anticipated over the next 24-48 hours as Pilar's primary steering influences are an equatorial ridge south of the storm providing deep-layer westerlies in addition to a mid- to upper-level cutoff low over the northwestern Caribbean that is interrupting the more typical ridging that would be present to the north over Mexico. The guidance is in general agreement on this scenario, but how far east the tropical storm gets in the next 48 h remains uncertain, with the latest HWRF and HAFS-B runs far enough east to affect the Gulf of Fonseca with tropical storm conditions. For this reason, the tropical storm watch has been extended eastward to portions of the Pacific coast of Honduras and Nicaragua this advisory. On Tuesday, Pilar is expected to stall and move very slowly as low to mid-level ridging attempts to build back in to the north of the tropical cyclone and a strong cold front induces a significant gap wind flow event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. By the middle of this week, the enhanced low-level flow associated with the ridge and gap winds are forecast to push Pilar away from Central America to the west-southwest as a weakening tropical storm. As discussed previously, the confidence of when or how sharp this turn away from Central America will be is low given the inconsistent model guidance over the past day. The NHC track this cycle is just a bit closer to the coast and a touch east of the prior track, but is roughly in between the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids. A small core may be starting to take shape given the earlier microwave imagery, and the persistent area of convection that Pilar has been maintaining over the last 3-6 hours near the estimated center. Most of the guidance maintains this small core structure with intensification while the storm remains embedded in moderate (15-20 kt) easterly vertical wind shear but is over warm 28-29 C sea-surface temperatures in a moist mid-level air environment. The latest NHC intensity forecast still takes Pilar to near hurricane intensity in 36 h, on the higher end of the intensity guidance but not far off the hurricane-regional guidance solutions. Afterwards, it seems likely a combination of the dry mid-latitude gap-wind flow in addition to possible cool upwelling of the shallow warm waters due to slow motion near the coast of Central America could begin a weakening trend. If the latest HWRF and HAFS-B runs end up being correct, land interaction could also result in weakening. The intensity forecast beyond 48 h is a little lower than the prior advisory, as it is looking more likely that a combination of moderate shear and additional dry stable air could prevent the storm from re-intensifying even after it begins to move back over warmer ocean waters away from its own cold wake. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rains from the tropical depression will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain along the Pacific coast of Central America, including El Salvador, through Wednesday. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible by early Tuesday into Wednesday along portions of the Pacific coast of El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua where a Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect. Interests elsewhere along the Pacific coast of Guatemala, and Nicaragua should monitor the progress of this system as additional watches or warnings could be needed tomorrow. 3. Swells generated by the depression will begin to affect portions of the Pacific coast of Central America, including El Salvador, beginning on Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 11.0N 92.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 11.2N 91.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 31/0000Z 11.6N 90.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 31/1200Z 12.0N 89.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 12.3N 88.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 01/1200Z 12.0N 88.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 02/0000Z 11.2N 89.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 03/0000Z 9.9N 93.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 04/0000Z 9.0N 97.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 30 2023 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 300242 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM PILAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192023 0300 UTC MON OCT 30 2023 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PILAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 95W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 4( 7) P SAN JOSE 34 X 4( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) 10N 90W 34 2 14(16) 6(22) 2(24) 4(28) 2(30) X(30) 10N 90W 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) PUERTO CUTUCO 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 9(19) 4(23) X(23) X(23) PUERTO CUTUCO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AMAPALA 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 9(18) 4(22) X(22) X(22) AMAPALA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHOLUTECA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CABO BLANCO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 29 2023 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 300242 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Pilar Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023 1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 29 2023 ...DEPRESSION INTENSIFIES INTO TROPICAL STORM PILAR... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED IN CENTRAL AMERICA THIS WEEK AS PILAR MOVES CLOSER TO LAND... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.0N 92.0W ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SW OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR ABOUT 395 MI...630 KM W OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Honduras has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the entire Pacific coast of Honduras including the Gulf of Fonseca. The government of Nicaragua has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from the Honduras and Nicaragua border southward to Puerto Sandino. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Entire coast of El Salvador * Pacific coast of Honduras including the Gulf of Fonseca * Honduras/Nicaragua border southward to Puerto Sandino. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in along the Pacific coasts of Guatemala and Nicaragua should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pilar was located near latitude 11.0 North, longitude 92.0 West. Pilar is moving toward the east-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h) and a continued east-northeastward motion is anticipated for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Pilar could be near the coast of El Salvador on Tuesday night or early Wednesday, though the core of the system is forecast to stay offshore. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast over the next couple of days, and Pilar could be near hurricane strength by Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Pilar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Pilar is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches, with local amounts to 15 inches, in and around much of the Pacific coast of Central America, including the country of El Salvador, through Wednesday. This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. SURF: Swells generated by Pilar are expected to reach portions of the Pacific coast of Central America on Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions could begin in the Tropical Storm Watch area early on Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Papin

...DEPRESSION INTENSIFIES INTO TROPICAL STORM PILAR... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED IN CENTRAL AMERICA THIS WEEK AS PILAR MOVES CLOSER TO LAND... As of 10:00 PM CDT Sun Oct 29 the center of Pilar was located near 11.0, -92.0 with movement ENE at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 30 2023 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 300239 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM PILAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192023 0300 UTC MON OCT 30 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 92.0W AT 30/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 92.0W AT 30/0300Z AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 92.3W FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 11.2N 91.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 11.6N 90.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 12.0N 89.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 12.3N 88.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 12.0N 88.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 11.2N 89.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 9.9N 93.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 9.0N 97.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.0N 92.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 30/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 292321
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Oct 29 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Nineteen-E, located a few hundred miles southwest of the
coast of El Salvador.

Southwestern East Pacific (EP93):
An area of low pressure located more than 1000 miles south-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are marginally conducive for slow development of this system
during the next couple of days while the low drifts generally
northeastward. By the middle of the week, upper-level winds are
forecast to become less conducive for additional development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Oct 2023 02:43:33 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Oct 2023 03:28:32 GMT

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 28 2023 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 290242 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023 1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 28 2023 The organization of the depression has not improved this evening. The shower and thunderstorm activity has diminished and is mostly confined to the northern and western portions of the circulation. Recent satellite-derived wind data and microwave images suggest the depression has not moved much since earlier today. Based on the earlier scatterometer data, current structure, and a T2.0 subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt. The depression is currently within weak steering currents, and little net motion is expected through Sunday while the system meanders offshore of Central America. By early next week, the flow associated with a mid- to upper-level trough over the northwestern Caribbean Sea should steer the system generally northeastward towards Central America. While the track models agree in principle on this scenario, it remains unclear how close the cyclone will get to the coast in 60-72 h and whether or not it will move inland. Given this uncertainty, interests in Guatemala and El Salvador should closely monitor the latest forecast updates, as only small track changes could result in greater land impacts. By the middle of next week, the flow behind a cold frontal passage to the north should push the cyclone southwestward and away from land. The updated NHC track forecast lies between the previous prediction and the latest multi-model consensus aids. Given the current structure of the depression, only modest strengthening is forecast in the near term. Once the system becomes better organized, the 28-29 deg C waters and abundant mid-level moisture should allow for more intensification in 24-48 h within a weak to moderate shear environment. This is shown by most of the intensity models, and the NHC forecast remains on the higher end of the guidance envelope, closest to the GFS and HFIP corrected consensus (HCCA). Later in the period, increasing deep-layer shear and potential land interaction should result in some weakening, although this portion of the forecast is more dependent on the future track of the system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 10.6N 92.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 10.8N 92.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 11.2N 92.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 11.5N 92.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 31/0000Z 12.1N 91.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 31/1200Z 12.8N 90.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 01/0000Z 12.9N 89.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 02/0000Z 10.5N 91.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 03/0000Z 9.0N 95.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 29 2023 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 290242 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192023 0300 UTC SUN OCT 29 2023 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 95W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 4(10) P SAN JOSE 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 13(17) 13(30) 2(32) X(32) P SAN JOSE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) P SAN JOSE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 10N 90W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 8(13) 5(18) 6(24) X(24) 10N 90W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 2(15) X(15) PUERTO CUTUCO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 11(15) 1(16) X(16) AMAPALA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 10(14) 1(15) X(15) CHOLUTECA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 28 2023 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 290241 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023 1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 28 2023 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN... ...INTERESTS IN EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA SHOULD MONITOR... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.6N 92.8W ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM SW OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NEARLY STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in El Salvador and southern Guatemala should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen-E was located near latitude 10.6 North, longitude 92.8 West. The depression is nearly stationary, and little motion is expected through Sunday. The system is forecast to begin moving northeastward by Monday, and could approach the coast of El Salvador or Guatemala on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the system could be near hurricane strength by early next week. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN... ...INTERESTS IN EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA SHOULD MONITOR... As of 10:00 PM CDT Sat Oct 28 the center of Nineteen-E was located near 10.6, -92.8 with movement Nearly stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 29 2023 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 290241 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192023 0300 UTC SUN OCT 29 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 92.8W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 92.8W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 92.8W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 10.8N 92.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 0SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 11.2N 92.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 11.5N 92.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 10SE 10SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 12.1N 91.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 10NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 12.8N 90.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 12.9N 89.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 10.5N 91.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 9.0N 95.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.6N 92.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART