National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 24 Aug 2024 14:36:05 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 24 Aug 2024 15:29:17 GMT

Issued at 500 AM HST Sat Aug 24 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 241431 TCDEP2 Hurricane Gilma Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 500 AM HST Sat Aug 24 2024 Gilma continues to show a well-defined, but somewhat asymmetric, central dense overcast in satellite imagery. AMSR microwave data near 1000 UTC showed an eye and eyewall are still present under the overcast, and the eye makes occasional attempts to appear in infrared imagery. The various subjective and objective intensity estimates currently have a wide range from 65-90 kt. However, the overall trend of these estimates is down, and based on this the initial intensity is reduced to a somewhat uncertain 80 kt. The initial motion is 275/8 kt. A mid-level ridge is forecast to gradually build to the north of Gilma during the next several days, and this should steer the cyclone on a generally westward, or just north of westward, track through the forecast period. The guidance has shifted south since the last advisory, continuing a trend that started yesterday. Based on this guidance, the new forecast track is also adjusted a little south of the previous track. Gilma is expected to remain over sea surface temperatures (SSTs) near 26C for the next day or two, and since it is in a light shear environment, only slow weakening is expected during this time. After that time, increasing westerly shear and dry air entrainment is likely to lead to significant weakening, even though the SSTs along the forecast track remain near 25-26C. While this is the most likely scenario, some differences have developed in the intensity guidance. The global models and the HMON regional model generally show Gilma degenerating to a post tropical cyclone by 96 h and to a remnant low by 120 h. On the other hand, the latest HWRF, HAFS-A, and HAFS-B runs show the cyclone remaining a convection producing tropical storm through the end of the forecast period. Given the forecast shear and dry air, these forecasts look too strong, and the new intensity forecast will follow the global model solutions of a faster decay. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 17.6N 130.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 17.7N 131.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 17.9N 133.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 18.1N 134.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 18.3N 136.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 27/0000Z 18.5N 138.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 18.7N 140.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 28/1200Z 19.3N 145.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 29/1200Z 20.0N 149.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 24 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 241431 PWSEP2 HURRICANE GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 1500 UTC SAT AUG 24 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 130W 34 5 3( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 135W 34 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) 20N 135W 34 2 8(10) 30(40) 8(48) 2(50) X(50) X(50) 20N 135W 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 33(41) 2(43) X(43) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 2(18) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

...GILMA EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC... As of 5:00 AM HST Sat Aug 24 the center of Gilma was located near 17.6, -130.0 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 977 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 24 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 241430 TCMEP2 HURRICANE GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 1500 UTC SAT AUG 24 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 130.0W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 130.0W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 129.6W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 17.7N 131.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 17.9N 133.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.1N 134.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.3N 136.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 18.5N 138.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.7N 140.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 19.3N 145.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 20.0N 149.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 130.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241127
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Aug 24 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gilma, located well to the west-southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

Central Portion of the East Pacific (EP92):
Shower and thunderstorm activity remains displaced to the west of an
area of low pressure centered several hundred miles to the southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Upper-level
winds are forecast to become more conducive for development of
the low during the next day or two, and a tropical depression is
expected to form this weekend or early next week while moving
toward the west or west-northwest at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 24 Aug 2024 08:36:44 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 24 Aug 2024 09:28:58 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM HST Fri Aug 23 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 240834 TCDEP2 Hurricane Gilma Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 1100 PM HST Fri Aug 23 2024 Gilma continues to exhibit a central dense overcast pattern in geostationary satellite images, though earlier microwave data did show that the hurricane still had an eye feature. The objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates have decreased a little this cycle, and range from about 75 to 90 kt. Based on that data, the initial wind speed is nudged downward to 85 kt. Gilma has a compact appearance in satellite images, and the wind field is estimated to be relatively small. The associated tropical storm and hurricane-force winds are estimated to extend outward up to 100 n mi and 30 n mi from the center, respectively. The hurricane continues to move westward at a relatively slow 8 kt. A westward to west-northwestward motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected during the next several days as a mid-level ridge builds to the north of the cyclone. There continues to be along-track, or forward speed, differences in the models, but they are all showing a similar theme. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and near the TVCE consensus model. Gilma is expected to remain over marginally warm waters and in a low wind shear environment during the next day or two, so only a little weakening is expected during that time frame. However, after that time, a notable increase in westerly shear coupled with a drier environment and slightly cooler waters should cause steady weakening. The NHC intensity forecast shows Gilma falling below hurricane strength by early Monday and degenerating into a post-tropical low in about 4 days. This forecast lies roughly near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 17.6N 129.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 17.8N 130.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 18.1N 132.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 18.3N 134.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 18.5N 135.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 26/1800Z 18.7N 137.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 27/0600Z 18.9N 139.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 28/0600Z 19.5N 144.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 29/0600Z 20.3N 149.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 24 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 240833 PWSEP2 HURRICANE GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 0900 UTC SAT AUG 24 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 3 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 130W 34 9 6(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) 15N 135W 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 135W 34 1 5( 6) 34(40) 17(57) 2(59) X(59) X(59) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 35(40) 3(43) X(43) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 2(12) X(12) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 2(16) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 1100 PM HST Fri Aug 23 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 240833 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Gilma Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 1100 PM HST Fri Aug 23 2024 ...GILMA EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 129.3W ABOUT 1310 MI...2105 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 1690 MI...2725 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gilma was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 129.3 West. Gilma is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slightly faster westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight weakening is forecast during the next day or two, but Gilma is expected to remain a hurricane this weekend. Steady weakening is anticipated early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...GILMA EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO... As of 11:00 PM HST Fri Aug 23 the center of Gilma was located near 17.6, -129.3 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 974 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 24 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 240832 TCMEP2 HURRICANE GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 0900 UTC SAT AUG 24 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 129.3W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 129.3W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 128.9W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 17.8N 130.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 18.1N 132.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.3N 134.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.5N 135.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.7N 137.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 18.9N 139.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 19.5N 144.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 20.3N 149.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 129.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 240515
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Aug 23 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gilma, located well to the west-southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

Central Portion of the East Pacific (EP92):
Shower and thunderstorm activity remains displaced to the west of an
area of low pressure centered several hundred miles to the southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Upper-level
winds are forecast to decrease over the low during the next day or
two, and a tropical depression is expected to form this weekend or
early next week while moving toward the west or west-northwest at
around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 24 Aug 2024 02:33:58 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 24 Aug 2024 03:29:13 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 24 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 240232 PWSEP2 HURRICANE GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 0300 UTC SAT AUG 24 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 3 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 130W 34 9 12(21) 2(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) 15N 135W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 135W 34 X 4( 4) 21(25) 27(52) 5(57) X(57) X(57) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) 12(39) X(39) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 6(18) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER KELLY

Issued at 500 PM HST Fri Aug 23 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 240232 TCDEP2 Hurricane Gilma Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 500 PM HST Fri Aug 23 2024 Gilma's satellite depiction has changed very little since earlier today, as the eye has become filled and now the center resides beneath the central dense overcast (CDO) on both visible and infrared imagery. Deep convection continues to burst within the inner core with cold cloud tops to near -80 C, with generally good outflow in all directions. The subjective and objective intensity estimates have remained steady with this advisory as well, with a current intensity (CI) of 5.0 from both SAB and TAFB. Given the steady state of satellite imagery and the intensity estimates, the initial intensity is held at 90 kt for this advisory. The hurricane is continuing to move generally westward at an initial motion of 280/8 kt. A ridge has started to build to the north of Gilma, which will keep the system on a generally westward track, with a gradual increase in forward motion. The track model guidance is in fairly good agreement with the general direction the system moves, however how fast that increase in forward speed occurs leads to some along-track differences in the model suite, particularly at the end of the forecast period. The official NHC track forecast is near the previous forecast, just nudged slightly southward and faster, near the consensus aids. Gilma is in a low wind shear environment, however the system is about to run into cooler sea surface temperatures with very little ocean heat content beyond the next 24 h or so. As the system moves over cooler waters it will also encounter a much drier and stable airmass. These changes in oceanic and atmospheric conditions will lead to gradual weakening over the next 24 hours followed by an increasing rate of weakening through the end of the period. Towards the end of the forecast period, conditions continue to become unfavorable with upper-level westerly wind shear increasing, and the GFS depicts the system struggling to produce convection, becoming a remnant low at 120 h. The official NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, near the simple consensus intensity aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 17.5N 128.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 17.7N 129.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 18.0N 131.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 18.2N 133.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 18.4N 135.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 26/1200Z 18.6N 137.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 18.9N 139.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 28/0000Z 19.4N 143.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 29/0000Z 20.3N 148.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 24 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 240231 TCMEP2 HURRICANE GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 0300 UTC SAT AUG 24 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 128.4W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 180SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 128.4W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 128.0W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 17.7N 129.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 18.0N 131.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 18.2N 133.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.4N 135.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.6N 137.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 18.9N 139.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 19.4N 143.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 20.3N 148.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 128.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY

Issued at 500 PM HST Fri Aug 23 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 240231 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Gilma Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 500 PM HST Fri Aug 23 2024 ...GILMA CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 128.4W ABOUT 1255 MI...2020 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 1750 MI...2820 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gilma was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 128.4 West. Gilma is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A generally westward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next several days, but Gilma is expected to remain a hurricane through the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Kelly

...GILMA CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD... As of 5:00 PM HST Fri Aug 23 the center of Gilma was located near 17.5, -128.4 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 970 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 232329
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Aug 23 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gilma, located well to the west-southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

Central Portion of the East Pacific (EP92):
Shower and thunderstorm activity remains displaced to the west of an
area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Upper-level
winds are forecast to decrease over the low during the next day or
two, and a tropical depression is expected to form this weekend or
early next week while moving toward the west or west-northwest at
around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg