National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 282339
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Oct 28 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression Nineteen-E, located a few hundred miles
southwest of the coast of El Salvador.

Southwestern East Pacific (EP93):
An area of low pressure located well to the south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing shower
and thunderstorm activity that has become a little better organized
since yesterday. Environmental conditions are marginally conducive
for slow development of this system through the middle of next week
while the low drifts slowly northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Nineteen-E are issued
under WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Nineteen-E are issued
under WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 272336
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Oct 27 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Central America and Mexico (EP92):
A broad area of low pressure is located a couple of hundred miles
south of the coast of Guatemala. Most of the shower and thunderstorm
activity in the vicinity of the low appears to be located well to
the west of its broad surface center. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for development during the next few days,
and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early
next week. Regardless of development, the low is forecast to meander
over the far eastern portion of the Eastern Pacific basin for the
next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Southwestern East Pacific:
A weak area of low pressure located well to the south-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
limited and disorganized shower activity. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be marginally conducive for slow development of the
low through early next week while it drifts slowly northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 262333
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Oct 26 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Central America and Mexico (EP92):
A broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south
of the southern coast of El Salvador is producing disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions appear to
be conducive for development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by this weekend while the low moves
slowly northwestward to northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Southwestern East Pacific:
A weak and elongated area of low pressure located well to the
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
is producing limited shower activity. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be marginally conducive for some slow development of
this system during the next several days while it meanders over the
southwestern portion of the East Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 252315
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Oct 25 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on Otis,
which has dissipated over southern Mexico.

South of Central America and Mexico (EP92):
A broad area of low pressure is located a little over one hundred
miles south of the southern coast of Central America. Environmental
conditions appear to be conducive for development of this system,
and a tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend while
the low moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Southwestern East Pacific:
An area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
limited shower activity. Environmental conditions are marginally
conducive for some slow development of this system during the next
several days while the low meanders over the southwestern East
Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 25 Oct 2023 20:32:49 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 25 Oct 2023 21:29:26 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 25 2023 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 252031 PWSEP3 REMNANTS OF OTIS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182023 2100 UTC WED OCT 25 2023 AT 2100Z THE REMNANTS OF OTIS WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH ...LONGITUDE 100.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS... 35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ...THERE IS NO OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS DATE/TIME... AND THEREFORE NO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES CAN BE CALCULATED... $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Oct 25 2023 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 252031 TCDEP3 Remnants Of Otis Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023 400 PM CDT Wed Oct 25 2023 High-resolution visible satellite imagery and synoptic observations indicate that the surface circulation of Otis has dissipated over the mountains of southern Mexico. Therefore, this is the last advisory on this system. The remnants of Otis will continue to produce locally heavy rains and flooding through Thursday. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rains from Otis will continue to impact areas of southwestern and south-central Mexico through Thursday. This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 19.1N 100.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...REMNANTS OF OTIS 12H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 25 2023 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 252031 TCMEP3 REMNANTS OF OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182023 2100 UTC WED OCT 25 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 100.8W AT 25/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 100.8W AT 25/2100Z AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 100.7W FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 100.8W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Oct 25 2023 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 252031 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Remnants Of Otis Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023 400 PM CDT Wed Oct 25 2023 ...OTIS DISSIPATES INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 100.8W ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM NNW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning from Punta Maldonado to Acapulco. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the remnants of Otis were located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 100.8 West. The remnants are moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The remnants of Otis are expected to produce additional rainfall totals of 2-4 inches (locally as high as 6) through Thursday across Guerrero, Mexico, and Morelos. A rainfall total of 9 inches was already observed at Cigua de Benitez in the state of Guerrero. This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...OTIS DISSIPATES INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 4:00 PM CDT Wed Oct 25 the center of Otis was located near 19.1, -100.8 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 1100 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023 000 WTPZ63 KNHC 250400 TCUEP3 Hurricane Otis Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023 1100 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023 ...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE OTIS STILL STRENGTHENING AS IT NEARS THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... Recent satellite data indicate that Otis continues to strengthen. The maximum sustained winds are now estimated to be near 165 mph (270 km/h) with higher gusts. Otis is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Otis is forecast to remain a category 5 hurricane through landfall overnight. SUMMARY OF 1100 PM CDT...0400 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3 99.7W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...923 MB...27.26 INCHES $$ Forecaster Brown/Kelly

...OTIS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES TO A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... ...CATASTROPHIC DAMAGE LIKELY WHERE THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE MOVES ONSHORE... As of 10:00 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 the center of Otis was located near 16.1, -99.7 with movement NNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 927 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 160 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 25 Oct 2023 02:51:11 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 25 Oct 2023 03:29:19 GMT

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 250250 TCDEP3 Hurricane Otis Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023 1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023 A nightmare scenario is unfolding for southern Mexico this evening with rapidly intensifying Otis approaching the coastline. Satellite images show that Otis has continued to intensify, with Dvorak Data-T estimates between 130-145 kt during the past few hours. The initial wind speed is set to 140 kt as a blend of these values, making Otis a Category 5 hurricane. Otis has explosively intensified 95 kt during the past 24 hours, a mark only exceeded in modern times by Patricia in 2015. Otis should maintain category 5 status before the hurricane makes landfall near the Acapulco area overnight or early on Wednesday. The only significant change to mention to the track forecast is that it has been shifted to the right due to a recent wobble to the east and the latest model trends, and a general north-northwest motion at about 8 kt is anticipated through landfall. Rapid weakening is anticipated after landfall, and Otis should dissipate tomorrow night over the higher terrain of Mexico. This is an extremely serious situation for the Acapulco metropolitan area with the core of the destructive hurricane likely to come near or over that large city early on Wednesday. There are no hurricanes on record even close to this intensity for this part of Mexico. Key Messages: 1. Otis is forecast to be a potentially catastrophic Category 5 hurricane when it reaches the southern coast of Mexico early Wednesday. Life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected in portions of the Hurricane Warning area with catastrophic damage expected. 2. A potentially catastrophic storm surge is expected to produce life-threatening coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. 3. Heavy rains from Otis will continue to impact areas of southwest Mexico this week. This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 16.1N 99.7W 140 KT 160 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 17.3N 100.1W 105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND 24H 26/0000Z 18.0N 100.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 25 2023 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 250249 PWSEP3 HURRICANE OTIS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182023 0300 UTC WED OCT 25 2023 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 140 KTS...160 MPH...260 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT L CARDENAS 34 2 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ZIHUATANEJO 34 13 14(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) ZIHUATANEJO 50 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ZIHUATANEJO 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 100W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ACAPULCO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ACAPULCO 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ACAPULCO 64 91 1(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) P MALDONADO 34 7 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023 496 WTPZ33 KNHC 250248 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Otis Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023 1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023 ...OTIS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES TO A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... ...CATASTROPHIC DAMAGE LIKELY WHERE THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE MOVES ONSHORE... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 99.7W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...927 MB...27.38 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Punta Maldonado westward to Zihuatanejo A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Lagunas de Chacahua to Punta Maldonado A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lagunas de Chacahua to Punta Maldonado A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in southern and southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Otis. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Otis was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 99.7 West. Otis is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected through for the next day or so, with landfall forecast overnight or early on Wednesday in southern Mexico. Satellite data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts. Otis is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Otis is forecast to remain a category 5 hurricane through landfall, and rapid weakening is then forecast due to the higher terrain of Mexico. Otis will likely dissipate over southern Mexico on Wednesday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 927 mb (27.38 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Otis can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the hurricane warning area by late tonight and early Wednesday, with extremely destructive winds near the core. Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning areas soon, and then spread northwestward within the warning areas through Wednesday. Winds affecting the upper floors of high-rise buildings will be significantly stronger than those near ground level. STORM SURGE: A potentially catastrophic storm surge is expected to produce life-threatening coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Otis is expected to produce rainfall totals of 8 to 16 inches with maximum amounts of 20 inches through Thursday across Guerrero and the western coastal sections of Oaxaca. This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. SURF: Swells generated by Otis will affect portions of the southern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 25 2023 293 WTPZ23 KNHC 250247 TCMEP3 HURRICANE OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182023 0300 UTC WED OCT 25 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 99.7W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 927 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 99.7W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 99.6W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 17.3N 100.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.0N 100.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 99.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPEP3...AT 25/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 242312 CCA
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Oct 24 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Corrected order of systems

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Otis, located roughly a hundred miles south of the southern coast
of Mexico.

Southwestern East Pacific:
A weak area of low pressure has formed about 1300 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula with some
associated shower activity. Upper-level winds could support some
slow development of the system during the next several days while
the low meanders over the southwestern east Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

South of Central America and Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to form in a day or two over
the far eastern Pacific, partially related to the remnants of
Atlantic Tropical Depression Twenty-One which are forecast to move
into the region. Environmental conditions should be conducive
for some development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form late this week or this weekend while the low moves
slowly westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 240239 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Otis Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023 1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023 Otis has the appearance of a sheared tropical storm this evening, with the center on the eastern edge of a relatively new burst of deep convection. The overall satellite intensity estimates still support an initial wind speed of 45 kt for this advisory. Despite the shear, recent microwave data indicate that Otis has notable low-level structure, with a ring observed in 37 GHz microwave data. While this can be associated with rapid intensification, none of the models show that intensity change occurring, seemingly due to persistent moderate shear and some dry air in the mid-levels. Still, it makes sense to stay on the high side of the guidance given the structure and very warm SSTs in the path. Thus, the new NHC forecast track is similar to the previous one, showing Otis near hurricane strength at landfall between 36-48 hours. Otis continues moving slowly north-northwestward at 6 kt in the flow between a mid- to upper-level trough to its northwest and a ridge to its east. This flow will likely cause the storm to move to the north-northwest or northwest through landfall. While most of the models respond by bringing Otis to the coast of southern Mexico on Wednesday, the GFS model remains an outlier and keeps Otis weaker and offshore. The GFS solution seems very unlikely given the overall synoptic pattern, so the NHC track forecast will put little weight on its solution, keeping the official forecast about the same as the previous one, on the eastern side of the guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rains from Otis will begin to impact areas of southwest Mexico on Tuesday. This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible beginning late Tuesday along portions of the southern coast of Mexico, where a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch remain in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 13.6N 97.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 14.4N 98.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 15.5N 98.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 16.4N 99.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 17.3N 100.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 60H 26/1200Z 18.0N 101.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 24 Oct 2023 02:37:56 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 24 Oct 2023 03:34:27 GMT