National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 24 2023 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 240237 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM OTIS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182023 0300 UTC TUE OCT 24 2023 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT L CARDENAS 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 7(11) 4(15) X(15) X(15) L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 12(19) 5(24) X(24) X(24) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ZIHUATANEJO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 100W 34 5 25(30) 6(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) 15N 100W 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ACAPULCO 34 1 18(19) 32(51) 12(63) 1(64) X(64) X(64) ACAPULCO 50 X 1( 1) 11(12) 9(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) ACAPULCO 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) P MALDONADO 34 4 45(49) 15(64) 2(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) P MALDONADO 50 X 8( 8) 9(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) P MALDONADO 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P ANGEL 34 2 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 95W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

...OTIS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AND BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT LANDFALL... As of 10:00 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 the center of Otis was located near 13.6, -97.9 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 240237 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Otis Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023 1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023 ...OTIS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AND BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT LANDFALL... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.6N 97.9W ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Lagunas de Chacahua to Tecpan de Galeana A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lagunas de Chacahua to Tecpan de Galeana A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests in elsewhere in southern and southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Otis. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Otis was located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 97.9 West. Otis is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, Otis is expected to reach the coast of southern Mexico on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Otis is expected to be near hurricane strength before it reaches southern Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Otis can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP3.shtml RAINFALL: Otis is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches through Friday across Guerrero and the western coastal sections of Oaxaca. This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible within the warning area beginning Tuesday night. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Otis will begin to affect portions of the southern coast of Mexico on Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 24 2023 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 240236 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182023 0300 UTC TUE OCT 24 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 97.9W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 30SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 97.9W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 97.8W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 14.4N 98.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 15.5N 98.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 16.4N 99.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 17.3N 100.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.0N 101.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 97.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPEP3...AT 24/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 232327
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Oct 23 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Otis, located a few hundred miles south-southeast of
Acapulco, Mexico.

South of Central America and Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to form in a couple of days
over the far eastern Pacific, partially related to the remnants of
Atlantic Tropical Depression Twenty-One which are forecast to move
into the region. Environmental conditions could support some slow
development of this system by late this week or this weekend while
the low moves slowly westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 23 Oct 2023 02:41:36 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 23 Oct 2023 03:35:04 GMT

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2023 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 230241 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Otis Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023 1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2023 Convection has been pulsing in the northwestern quadrant of Otis during the past several hours, with less overall convective activity than this afternoon. Microwave data and ship reports suggests the center is southeast of the main area of deep convection. The initial wind speed is kept at 35 kt, in line with recent Dvorak T-number estimates. Otis appears to be moving north-northwest at about 4 kt. The biggest change to report on this advisory is that there's been a notable northwest shift in the NHC track forecast. The synoptic pattern of a trough over northwestern Mexico and a ridge over the northwestern Caribbean would seem to favor a slow north-northwest track for the next few days. Much of the GFS-based guidance, however, appears to be too intertwined with the Intertropical Convergence Zone, resulting in many of the aids not showing enough motion during the next few days or even a track southward. This doesn't seem realistic, and I've adjusted the forecast a large distance to the northwest, with further northwest track changes possible on later forecasts. The storm will likely be in an environment of light-to-moderate shear, with fairly high mid-level humidity over very warm water. These conditions should promote gradual strengthening, which is shown to begin after 12 hours to give the system some time to re-align vertically. An increase in shear and possible land interaction is forecast to cause Otis to level off in intensity around midweek. This NHC intensity prediction is near the higher end of the guidance, closer to the statistical guidance than the dynamical models, the latter of which seem to be too low given the large-scale environment. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 11.1N 97.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 11.7N 97.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 12.6N 97.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 13.6N 97.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 14.5N 98.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 25/1200Z 15.2N 98.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 16.1N 99.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 27/0000Z 17.6N 100.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 23 2023 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 230240 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM OTIS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182023 0300 UTC MON OCT 23 2023 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) 15N 100W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 12(20) 1(21) X(21) 15N 100W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 15N 100W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ACAPULCO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 14(17) 6(23) X(23) ACAPULCO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) P MALDONADO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 9(11) 20(31) 2(33) X(33) P MALDONADO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) P ANGEL 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 4(12) 1(13) X(13) 15N 95W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 23 2023 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 230240 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182023 0300 UTC MON OCT 23 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 97.3W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 97.3W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 97.3W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 11.7N 97.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 12.6N 97.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 13.6N 97.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 14.5N 98.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 15.2N 98.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.1N 99.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 17.6N 100.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.1N 97.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2023 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 230240 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Otis Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023 1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2023 ...OTIS NOW FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.1N 97.3W ABOUT 435 MI...705 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in southern and southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of the Otis. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Otis was located near latitude 11.1 North, longitude 97.3 West. Otis is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). This general motion is anticipated for the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of Otis will be approaching the southern coast of Mexico on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next 72 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall may impact coastal areas of southern Mexico from Oaxaca to Guerrero later this week. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

...OTIS NOW FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS... As of 10:00 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 the center of Otis was located near 11.1, -97.3 with movement NNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 900 PM MDT Sun Oct 22 2023 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 230239 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Norma Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023 900 PM MDT Sun Oct 22 2023 The center of Norma is exposed tonight with all of the deep convection displaced well northeast of the center. The initial wind speed is lowered to 50 kt, in accordance with Dvorak estimates assuming some weakening from earlier scatterometer data. While the global models re-develop some deep convection overnight near the center over the warm Gulf of California waters, strong shear is expected to cause Norma to weaken as it approaches mainland Mexico. Norma is forecast to continue to move slowly east-northeastward through landfall early Monday, then rapidly weaken and dissipate as a tropical cyclone over the elevated terrain in less than 24 hours. Only a slight southward adjustment was made to the track forecast. Heavy rains causing flash floods and mudslides are expected to be the main hazards with Norma. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rains from Norma will continue to impact locations in and near Sinaloa into Monday. This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. 2. Tropical storm conditions will continue along portions of the west coast of mainland Mexico within the Tropical Storm Warning area through tonight. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 25.0N 109.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 25.3N 108.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 24/0000Z 26.0N 107.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 23 Oct 2023 02:38:44 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 23 Oct 2023 03:29:00 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 23 2023 218 FOPZ12 KNHC 230238 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM NORMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172023 0300 UTC MON OCT 23 2023 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT LA PAZ 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CULIACAN 34 55 1(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 900 PM MDT Sun Oct 22 2023 271 WTPZ32 KNHC 230237 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Norma Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023 900 PM MDT Sun Oct 22 2023 ...NORMA COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OVERNIGHT OVER SINALOA... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.0N 109.0W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM W OF CULIACAN MEXICO ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM S OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Baja California Sur from Cabo San Lucas to San Evaristo. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Huatabampito to Mazatlan A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere along the west coast of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Norma. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Norma was located near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 109.0 West. Norma is moving toward the east-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). On the forecast track, the center of Norma is forecast to approach the west coast of mainland Mexico tonight and move inland within the tropical storm warning area early Monday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Norma is expected to move over the west coast of mainland Mexico as a tropical storm early Monday. Rapid weakening is anticipated once Norma moves inland over mainland Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Norma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions are ongoing within portions of the tropical storm warning area. RAINFALL: Norma will produce additional rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches with storm total maxima of 18 inches in and near Sinaloa into Monday. These rains will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding is possible along the west coast of mainland Mexico within the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast, the coastal flooding will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. SURF: Swells generated by Norma will continue to affect the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur for the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

...NORMA COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OVERNIGHT OVER SINALOA... As of 9:00 PM MDT Sun Oct 22 the center of Norma was located near 25.0, -109.0 with movement ENE at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 23 2023 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 230236 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM NORMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172023 0300 UTC MON OCT 23 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 109.0W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 130SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 109.0W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 109.2W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 25.3N 108.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 26.0N 107.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N 109.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 23/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 222341
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Oct 22 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Norma, located over the southern Gulf of California, and on
Tropical Storm Otis, located several hundred miles south-southeast
of Acapulco, Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Otis are issued
under WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Otis are issued
under WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Blake

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 22 Oct 2023 02:45:05 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 22 Oct 2023 03:29:00 GMT

Issued at 900 PM MDT Sat Oct 21 2023 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 220244 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Norma Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023 900 PM MDT Sat Oct 21 2023 Norma continues to move across the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula this evening. The satellite depiction of the ill-defined low-level center has been difficult to track through the terrain as the system has decoupled from the mid-level center. Infrared satellite imagery indicates that there continues to be bursts of convection on the northwest side. The land interaction, increasingly southerly shear and dry air is causing Norma to weaken. Subjective and objective Dvorak estimates for this advisory range from 55 to 60 kt. Given the current satellite depiction and the satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity for this advisory is set to 55 kt. The tropical storm is moving north-northeastward or 30 degrees at 5 kt. The system will move across the southern portion of Baja California Sur through tonight. Norma should emerge over the southern Gulf of California early Sunday, then move northeastward to east-northeastward and make landfall along the coast of Sinaloa in western Mexico within the tropical storm warning area. The updated NHC track forecast is similar to the previous, and lies between the simple and corrected consensus aids. Norma is expected to continue weakening due to the aforementioned vertical wind shear, drier air, and land interaction. Once Norma moves inland over mainland Mexico, it will quickly dissipate over the high terrain. The intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory. The official forecast shows a 48 hour remnant low point for continuity, however it is possible that the system could be dissipated by that time. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rains from Norma will continue to impact southern portions of Baja California Sur through Sunday, and through Sinaloa into Monday. This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. 2. Tropical storm conditions will continue through tonight within the Tropical Storm Warning area over the southern Baja California peninsula. 3. Norma is forecast to bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the west coast of mainland Mexico within the Tropical Storm Warning area beginning early Sunday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 23.5N 109.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 24.1N 109.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 23/0000Z 24.5N 108.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 24.9N 107.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 24/0000Z 25.2N 106.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly