National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 23 Aug 2024 20:36:35 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 23 Aug 2024 21:28:45 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM HST Fri Aug 23 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 232035 TCDEP2 Hurricane Gilma Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 1100 AM HST Fri Aug 23 2024 The satellite appearance of Gilma has decayed a little more since the previous advisory, although a cloud-filled eye is still present. The various objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates are in the 80-100 kt range, and the initial intensity is thus reduced to 90 kt in best agreement with the estimates from SAB and CIMSS satellite consensus technique. The cyclone remains in an environment of light shear with good anticyclonic outflow in all directions. The initial motion is now 275/8 kt. Gilma is slipping west of the axis of the deep-layer trough near the west coast of the United States, and a ridge is expected to build north of the cyclone during the next few days as the trough lifts out. The track guidance is in good agreement with a general westward or just north of westward motion through the forecast period. However, the guidance has again shifted a little southward, and the official forecast track will again be nudged southward. While the guidance is in good agreement on the direction, there is a notable spread in forward speed between the faster GFS and the slower ECMWF. The new NHC track lies near the consensus models, which split the difference in forward speed between these two models. Gilma's more westward motion is keeping it over warmer water for a little longer in the short term, so little change in strength is likely during the next 12 h. After that, the hurricane is expected to cross the 26C isotherm in about 36 h while moving into a drier and more stable airmass. This combination should lead to gradual weakening, and the rate of weakening should increase after 48-60 h when Gilma is expected to encounter westerly shear. The new intensity forecast follows the general trend of the intensity guidance with a faster rate of decay after 48 h than seen in the previous forecast. The forecast still calls for the cyclone to degenerate to a remnant low by 120 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 17.3N 127.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 17.5N 128.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 17.8N 130.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 18.1N 132.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 18.4N 134.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 26/0600Z 18.7N 136.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 19.0N 138.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 27/1800Z 19.8N 142.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 28/1800Z 20.5N 148.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 23 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 232034 PWSEP2 HURRICANE GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 2100 UTC FRI AUG 23 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 2 4( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 130W 34 3 19(22) 6(28) 2(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) 20N 130W 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 135W 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 34(44) 19(63) X(63) X(63) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 11(19) X(19) X(19) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 14(31) 1(32) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 1100 AM HST Fri Aug 23 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 232034 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Gilma Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 1100 AM HST Fri Aug 23 2024 ...GILMA MOVING WESTWARD AND EXPECTED TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 127.7W ABOUT 1215 MI...1955 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 1800 MI...2895 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gilma was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 127.7 West. Gilma is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A generally westward motion and a faster forward speed are expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are now near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next several days, but Gilma is expected to remain a hurricane through much of the upcoming weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Beven

...GILMA MOVING WESTWARD AND EXPECTED TO WEAKEN... As of 11:00 AM HST Fri Aug 23 the center of Gilma was located near 17.3, -127.7 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 968 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 23 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 232034 TCMEP2 HURRICANE GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 2100 UTC FRI AUG 23 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 127.7W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 180SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 127.7W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 127.2W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 17.5N 128.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 17.8N 130.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 18.1N 132.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.4N 134.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.7N 136.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 19.0N 138.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 19.8N 142.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 20.5N 148.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 127.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 231745
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Aug 23 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gilma, located well west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.

Central Portion of the East Pacific (EP92):
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure located several hundred miles to the south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has changed little in
organization since yesterday. Environmental conditions appear
generally conducive for development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form this weekend or early next week while the system
moves westward to west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 23 Aug 2024 14:36:45 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 23 Aug 2024 15:29:41 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 23 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 231434 PWSEP2 HURRICANE GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 1500 UTC FRI AUG 23 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 125W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 130W 34 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 130W 34 2 29(31) 18(49) 1(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51) 20N 130W 50 X 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 25(30) 40(70) X(70) 1(71) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 26(31) 1(32) X(32) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 29(40) X(40) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 500 AM HST Fri Aug 23 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 231434 TCDEP2 Hurricane Gilma Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 500 AM HST Fri Aug 23 2024 The cloud pattern associated with Gilma has lost some organization since the last advisory, with the eye become less distinct and the central dense overcast becoming more ragged. The various objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates have trended downward during the past 6 h, and based on these data the initial intensity is decreased to 100 kt. The westward jog mentioned in the previous advisory continues, with the initial motion now 275/7 kt. A deep-layer trough north of Gilma near the west coast of the United States is expected to lift out over the next couple of days, which will allow a high pressure ridge to gradually build westward over the eastern North Pacific. As a result, Gilma should move generally west-northwestward to westward at a faster forward speed during the next several days. Due to the current westward jog, the guidance envelope has shifted a little to the south and west since the previous advisory. Based on this guidance, the new track forecast, which lies close to the consensus models, will also shift a bit to the south. Gilma is gradually moving toward cooler water, with the center expected to cross the 26C isotherm in about 36 h. The hurricane is also moving into a drier and more stable air mass. This combination should lead to gradual weakening for the next 60 h or so. Beyond that time, increasing shear and sea surface temperatures near 25C should cause a faster weakening rate, and Gilma is now expected to degenerate to a remnant low by 120 h. The new intensity forecast follows the trend of the intensity guidance, but is nudged downward a little from the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 17.4N 126.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 17.6N 128.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 18.0N 129.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 18.3N 131.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 18.6N 133.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 26/0000Z 18.9N 134.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 19.2N 137.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 19.9N 141.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 28/1200Z 20.6N 147.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 500 AM HST Fri Aug 23 2024 125 WTPZ32 KNHC 231434 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Gilma Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 500 AM HST Fri Aug 23 2024 ...GILMA SLOWLY WEAKENING OVER OPEN WATERS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 126.8W ABOUT 1160 MI...1865 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 1855 MI...2990 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gilma was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 126.8 West. Gilma is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest and a faster forward speed are expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are now near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Gilma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is forecast during the next several days, but Gilma is expected to remain a hurricane through much of the upcoming weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Beven

...GILMA SLOWLY WEAKENING OVER OPEN WATERS... As of 5:00 AM HST Fri Aug 23 the center of Gilma was located near 17.4, -126.8 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 962 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 23 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 231433 TCMEP2 HURRICANE GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 1500 UTC FRI AUG 23 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 126.8W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 180SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 126.8W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 126.4W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 17.6N 128.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 18.0N 129.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 18.3N 131.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 18.6N 133.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.9N 134.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 19.2N 137.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 19.9N 141.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 20.6N 147.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 126.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 231128
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Aug 23 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gilma, located well west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.

Central Portion of the East Pacific (EP92):
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure located several hundred miles to the south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has changed little in
organization since yesterday. Environmental conditions appear
generally conducive for development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form this weekend or early next week while the system
moves westward to west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 23 Aug 2024 08:39:41 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 23 Aug 2024 09:29:11 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM HST Thu Aug 22 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 230838 TCDEP2 Hurricane Gilma Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 1100 PM HST Thu Aug 22 2024 The satellite presentation of Gilma has not changed much since the previous advisory. The ragged eye of the hurricane is still surrounded by deep convection, with the coldest cloud tops located over the western and southern portions of the inner core. Based on consensus T-5.5/102 kt Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, and similar estimates from the various UW-CIMSS objective techniques, the initial intensity is held at 105 kt. The center of the hurricane has jogged westward during the past few hours, but the longer-term motion is still west-northwestward at about 5 kt. A deep-layer trough near the west coast of the United States is expected to lift out over the next couple of days, which will allow a high pressure ridge to build westward over the eastern North Pacific. As a result, Gilma should gradually move faster toward the west-northwest and west during the next several days. The track guidance remains tightly clustered, and the NHC forecast is essentially an update of the previous one with no notable changes. As previously discussed, the slow forward speed of Gilma is likely resulting in some upwelling of cooler waters underneath the hurricane. Although the vertical wind shear is forecast to remain relatively weak during the next couple of days, the track of Gilma will bring the hurricane over even cooler waters and into a drier mid-level environment by this weekend. These factors suggest at least gradual weakening should continue in the near term, followed by more significant weakening beyond 72 h as the cyclone encounters stronger shear and the upper air pattern becomes more convergent. Some slight downward adjustments were made to the NHC prediction later in the period. Gilma is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by 120 h, but the lack of organized convection in GFS and ECMWF model-simulated satellite imagery indicates this transition could occur as early as day 4. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 17.4N 126.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 17.6N 127.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 18.0N 128.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 18.4N 130.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 18.7N 132.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 25/1800Z 19.0N 134.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 26/0600Z 19.3N 136.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 27/0600Z 19.9N 140.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 28/0600Z 20.5N 146.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 23 2024 996 FOPZ12 KNHC 230834 PWSEP2 HURRICANE GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 0900 UTC FRI AUG 23 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 130W 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 130W 34 2 19(21) 37(58) 5(63) 1(64) X(64) X(64) 20N 130W 50 X 1( 1) 11(12) 2(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 56(72) 1(73) X(73) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 32(34) 1(35) X(35) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 33(40) 3(43) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 1100 PM HST Thu Aug 22 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 230834 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Gilma Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 1100 PM HST Thu Aug 22 2024 ...GILMA REMAINS A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER OPEN WATERS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 126.1W ABOUT 1115 MI...1795 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 1905 MI...3060 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gilma was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 126.1 West. Gilma is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). Gradual acceleration toward the west-northwest and west is expected during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Gilma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is forecast during the next several days, but Gilma is expected to remain a hurricane through much of the upcoming weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb (28.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...GILMA REMAINS A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER OPEN WATERS... As of 11:00 PM HST Thu Aug 22 the center of Gilma was located near 17.4, -126.1 with movement WNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 959 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 23 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 230833 TCMEP2 HURRICANE GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 0900 UTC FRI AUG 23 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 126.1W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 959 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 180SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 126.1W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 125.8W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 17.6N 127.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 18.0N 128.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 18.4N 130.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 18.7N 132.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 19.0N 134.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 19.3N 136.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 50SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 19.9N 140.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 70NW. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 20.5N 146.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 126.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART