National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 21 2024 858 FOPZ12 KNHC 210234 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 0300 UTC WED AUG 21 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 120W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 125W 34 3 26(29) 14(43) 3(46) 3(49) X(49) X(49) 15N 125W 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 125W 34 1 2( 3) 8(11) 11(22) 7(29) 1(30) X(30) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 9(12) 5(17) X(17) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 33(37) 27(64) 1(65) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 17(25) 1(26) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) X(12) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 29(40) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 21 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 210233 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 0300 UTC WED AUG 21 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 121.5W AT 21/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 100SE 120SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 150SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 121.5W AT 21/0300Z AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 121.1W FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 16.2N 122.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 100SE 100SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 16.6N 123.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 100SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 17.0N 125.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 17.4N 126.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.8N 127.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 18.2N 128.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 18.8N 131.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 19.6N 135.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 121.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 202327
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Aug 20 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gilma, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP90/EP91):
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms continues in
association with two disturbances over the western portion of the
East Pacific basin. These systems are expected to merge tonight,
and gradual development is anticipated after they merge. A tropical
depression or tropical storm will likely form during the next day or
so while it moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph. The system is
then expected to strengthen as it moves across the central Pacific
basin late this week and move near the Hawaiian Islands late this
weekend or early next week.

While it is too early to determine the exact location and magnitude
of potential impacts, interests in Hawaii should closely monitor
this disturbance. Information on this system's development can also
be found in the Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific
basin. For marine forecasts, including gale warnings, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Eastern and Central Portion of the East Pacific:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms centered several hundred
miles southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico are associated
with a trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions are
forecast to become more conducive for development in a day or two,
and a tropical depression could form late this week or over the
weekend while the system moves west-northwestward over open waters,
well offshore of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

The Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin can be
found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP and WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and on
the web at hurricanes.gov

$$
Forecaster Blake

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 20 Aug 2024 21:01:59 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 20 Aug 2024 21:23:27 GMT

Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 20 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 202057 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Gilma Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 20 2024 Gilma has become much better organized throughout the day. The center is now embedded in the thunderstorm activity, and the associated deep convection has been expanding and has a less sheared appearance. The Dvorak estimates have increased and are between 45 and 55 kt at 18Z. Over the past hour or two, a pair of ASCAT passes showed reliable winds in the 50-55 kt range. Based on the ASCAT data and the improving satellite appearance, the initial intensity is increased to 60 kt. Gilma is moving westward or 280 degrees at 10 kt. A high pressure ridge situated to the north of the storm should cause it to continue westward to west-northwestward at about the same speed for another day or so. However, after that time, a decrease in forward speed and a slight turn to the right are expected as the ridge weakens and is replaced by a broad trough. The NHC track forecast has again been nudged to the south, toward the latest consensus aids. The improving cloud pattern suggests that the vertical wind shear around Gilma is lessening. In addition, the storm is forecast to remain over warm waters and in a relatively moist airmass for a few days. Therefore, continued steady strengthening is predicted, and Gilma is expected to become a hurricane tonight or early Wednesday with additional strengthening anticipated through Thursday. By the end of the week, however, the cyclone is expected to track over cooler waters and into a more stable airmass, which should induce a weakening trend. The NHC intensity forecast is nudged upward from the previous one and near the high end of the model guidance. The initial 34- and 50-kt wind radii have been updated using the aforementioned ASCAT data. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 16.1N 120.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 16.3N 121.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 16.6N 123.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 17.0N 124.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 17.5N 125.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 23/0600Z 17.9N 126.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 23/1800Z 18.4N 128.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 24/1800Z 19.0N 130.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 25/1800Z 19.8N 134.1W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 20 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 202057 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 2100 UTC TUE AUG 20 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 120W 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 15N 125W 34 2 15(17) 16(33) 6(39) 3(42) 1(43) X(43) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 125W 34 1 3( 4) 6(10) 16(26) 13(39) 2(41) X(41) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) 5(13) X(13) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 28(31) 36(67) 4(71) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 23(28) 4(32) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 2(14) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 26(32) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 20 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 202056 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 2100 UTC TUE AUG 20 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 120.6W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 100SE 120SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 150SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 120.6W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 120.2W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 16.3N 121.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 100SE 100SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.6N 123.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 100SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.0N 124.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 17.5N 125.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 17.9N 126.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 18.4N 128.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 19.0N 130.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 19.8N 134.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 120.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 20 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 202056 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gilma Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 20 2024 ...GILMA ALMOST A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 120.6W ABOUT 840 MI...1350 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gilma was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 120.6 West. Gilma is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A slightly slower westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Gilma could become a hurricane tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...GILMA ALMOST A HURRICANE... As of 2:00 PM PDT Tue Aug 20 the center of Gilma was located near 16.1, -120.6 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201727
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Aug 20 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gilma, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Well East-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP90/EP91):
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is associated
with two disturbances over the western portion of the East Pacific
basin. These systems are expected to merge tonight, and gradual
development is anticipated after they merge. A tropical depression
will likely form during the next day or so while it moves generally
westward at 10 to 15 mph. The system is then expected to strengthen
as it moves across the central Pacific basin late this week and move
near the Hawaiian Islands late this weekend or early next week.

While it is too early to determine the exact location and magnitude
of potential impacts, interests in Hawaii should closely monitor
this disturbance. Information on this system's development can also
be found in the Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific
basin. For marine forecasts, including gale warnings, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Eastern and Central Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is expected to form well to the south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico in a couple of days. Environmental
conditions should support slow development thereafter, and a
tropical depression could form late this week or over the weekend
while the system moves west-northwestward over open waters, well
offshore of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

The Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin can be
found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP and WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and on
the web at hurricanes.gov

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Reinhart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 20 Aug 2024 14:37:55 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 20 Aug 2024 15:29:16 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 20 2024 813 FOPZ12 KNHC 201434 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 1500 UTC TUE AUG 20 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 120W 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 125W 34 1 4( 5) 14(19) 8(27) 6(33) 2(35) X(35) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 14(22) 18(40) 3(43) 1(44) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) 1(11) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 39(58) 11(69) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 6(30) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 4(14) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 20 2024 814 WTPZ32 KNHC 201434 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gilma Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 20 2024 ...GILMA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 119.6W ABOUT 790 MI...1270 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gilma was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 119.6 West. Gilma is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A slightly slower motion to the west-northwest is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is expected, and Gilma is forecast to become a hurricane by Wednesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...GILMA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 8:00 AM PDT Tue Aug 20 the center of Gilma was located near 16.0, -119.6 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 20 2024 312 WTPZ22 KNHC 201433 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 1500 UTC TUE AUG 20 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 119.6W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 90SE 100SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 105SE 90SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 119.6W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 119.2W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 16.2N 121.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 100SE 100SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 16.6N 122.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 100SE 100SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 17.0N 123.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 17.4N 125.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 17.8N 126.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 18.3N 127.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 19.2N 129.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 20.0N 132.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 119.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 20 2024 295 WTPZ42 KNHC 201434 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Gilma Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 20 2024 Deep convection has increased significantly over the past several hours, but the center is located near the northeastern edge of the thunderstorms. This asymmetric structure is due to 15-20 kt of northeasterly vertical wind shear. The objective and subjective Dvorak estimates range from 35 to 55 kt, and based on that data, the initial intensity is held at 45 kt. However, this estimate could be a little conservative based on recent satellite trends. Gilma's motion has been somewhat erratic, but smoothing through the wobbles yields an initial motion estimate of 285/10 kt. A high pressure ridge situated to the north of the storm should cause that motion to continue for another day or so. However, after that time, a decrease in forward speed is expected as the ridge weakens and is replaced by a broad trough. The models have trended south this cycle, and the NHC track forecast has been nudged in that direction. The ongoing northeasterly vertical wind shear is expected to decrease and become fairly low during the next few days. This more conducive upper-level wind pattern combined with warm SSTs and high moisture should allow Gilma to steadily strengthen through the rest of the week. Gilma is forecast to reach hurricane strength by Wednesday night and could reach its peak intensity a day later. By the end of the week, the cyclone is expected to track over cooler waters and into a more stable airmass, which should induce a weakening trend. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 16.0N 119.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 16.2N 121.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 16.6N 122.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 17.0N 123.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 17.4N 125.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 23/0000Z 17.8N 126.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 23/1200Z 18.3N 127.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 24/1200Z 19.2N 129.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 25/1200Z 20.0N 132.7W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

325
ABPZ20 KNHC 201141
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Aug 20 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gilma, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Well East-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP90/EP91):
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is
associated with two disturbances over the western portion of the
East Pacific basin. These systems are expected to merge later today
or tonight, and gradual development is expected after they merge.
A tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of
days while the disturbance moves west-northwestward into the
Central Pacific basin Wednesday night or early Thursday.
Information on this system's development can also be found in the
Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Eastern and Central Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is expected to form well to the south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico in a couple of days. Environmental
conditions should support slow development thereafter, and a
tropical depression could form late this week or over the weekend
while the system moves west-northwestward over open waters, well
offshore of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

&&
The Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin can be
found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP and WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and on
the web at hurricanes.gov

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 20 Aug 2024 08:42:39 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 20 Aug 2024 09:28:57 GMT

Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Aug 20 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 200840 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Gilma Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 200 AM PDT Tue Aug 20 2024 Gilma continues to struggle with moderate to strong northeasterly vertical wind shear. The center is exposed more than 30 n mi to the northeast of the main convective overcast area. A 20/0129 UTC SSMIS pass and a pair of more recent ASCAT passes were helpful in placing the center well outside of the convective area. The highest reliable ASCAT vectors were only about 40 kt. UW-CIMSS objective intensity estimates range from 34-42 kt. Subjective current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were T-3.5/55 kt and T-3.0/45 kt from SAB. Based on the degraded structure on satellite imagery, the ASCAT data and the objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS, the initial intensity is set to 45 kt for this advisory. The aforementioned microwave and ASCAT data indicate that the center of the cyclone is a bit farther north than previously estimated. It appears that Gilma has slowed down, and the motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 295/7 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of Gilma should steer the cyclone generally west-northwestward at a similar forward speed through the forecast period. Although the track guidance is gradually coming into better agreement, there is still more spread than normal among the various track aids. The official track forecast is quite similar to the previous NHC track prediction. The NHC forecast track is closer to the ECMWF model than the GFS model through 72 h, and is close to an average of those two models beyond 72 h. Moderate to strong northeasterly vertical wind shear will continue to affect Gilma for another 12 h or so. The SHIPS guidance indicates that the cyclone will reach a much lower wind shear regime by 24 h. Therefore, little change in strength is expected during the next 12-24 h, following by steady intensification. The official intensity forecast was lowered in the short term due to the weaker initial intensity. However, the guidance has become more aggressive after the cyclone reaches the weaker shear, and the NHC forecast follows suit, now showing a peak of 85 kt in 60-72 hr. The new NHC intensity forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope, in between the weaker statistical guidance and the stronger regional hurricane model dynamical guidance. SSTs along Gilma's path should decrease to about 26C in 72 h, and remain at that value through 96 h before dropping to below 26C. Weakening is forecast during that time period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 15.7N 118.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 16.0N 119.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 16.4N 121.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 16.8N 123.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 17.3N 124.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 22/1800Z 17.7N 125.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 23/0600Z 18.2N 126.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 24/0600Z 19.0N 128.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 25/0600Z 20.0N 131.2W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Hagen/Pasch

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 20 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 200838 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 0900 UTC TUE AUG 20 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 64 3(67) 1(68) 1(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) 20N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 10(20) 8(28) 2(30) X(30) 20N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 11(15) 30(45) 5(50) 1(51) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12) X(12) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 33(42) 17(59) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 13(25) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/PASCH