National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 04 2023 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 042037 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM LIDIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152023 2100 UTC WED OCT 04 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LIDIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 9 7(16) 7(23) 3(26) 4(30) 2(32) 1(33) 15N 110W 50 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 110W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 3(13) 2(15) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 8(10) 11(21) 9(30) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 15(17) 16(33) 7(40) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 3(12) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 6(13) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER KELLY/KONARIK

...LIDIA MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 3:00 PM MDT Wed Oct 4 the center of Lidia was located near 15.2, -108.9 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 032315
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Oct 3 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Lidia, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southwestern coast of Mexico.

South of Central America:
An area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred miles
south of the coast of Central America during the next few days.
Afterward, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form late this week or over the weekend while the system
moves slowly westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Lidia are issued under WMO
header WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Lidia are issued under WMO
header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 03 Oct 2023 20:43:41 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 03 Oct 2023 21:29:32 GMT

Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Oct 03 2023 899 WTPZ45 KNHC 032042 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023 300 PM MDT Tue Oct 03 2023 Lidia continues to exhibit a curved band on geostationary and microwave satellite imagery this afternoon. Deep convection is predominately developing to the west of the low-level center due to the influence of moderate easterly vertical wind shear. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory in agreement with the subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, and the objective intensity estimates, ADT and AiDT from UW-CIMSS. The system is moving northwest at 320/7 kt around the southwestern edge of a mid-level ridge located over Mexico. A mid- to upper-level trough to the northwest will begin to weaken the ridge allowing Lidia to move northwest to north-northwest during the next 48 hours. Most models are now in agreement with a more westward motion in Lidia between 48 and 72 hours. There are large differences in the speed of the system, with the UKMET accelerating towards the west faster than the other global models. The forward speed of the system was adjusted slightly faster for this advisory in the short term, and the track forecast is in line with the simple consensus aids. Lidia is still battling some moderate easterly vertical wind shear. The ECMWF/GFS SHIPS guidance depicts that moderate shear will remain over the system throughout much of the forecast period despite otherwise favorable environmental conditions. The guidance for RI continues to lessen the probability with this cycle. The GFS, HWRF, and SHIPS models still strengthen Lidia into a hurricane beyond 2 days, however much of the other guidance, including the HAFS models, does not intensify Lidia as much. The NHC intensity forecast was lowered slightly from the previous advisory and continues to show gradual strengthening to a hurricane by day 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 12.8N 107.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 13.7N 108.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 14.5N 108.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 15.2N 109.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 15.7N 109.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 06/0600Z 15.9N 110.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 15.9N 111.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 15.7N 112.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 08/1800Z 15.8N 114.1W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly/Stevenson

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 03 2023 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 032041 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM LIDIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152023 2100 UTC TUE OCT 03 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LIDIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 X 7( 7) 21(28) 9(37) 11(48) 3(51) 1(52) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 5(15) 1(16) X(16) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 6(17) 2(19) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 11(20) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 17(30) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) $$ FORECASTER KELLY/STEVENSON

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 03 2023 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 032041 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM LIDIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152023 2100 UTC TUE OCT 03 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 107.6W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 20SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 15SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 107.6W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 107.4W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 13.7N 108.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 14.5N 108.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.2N 109.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 15.7N 109.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 15.9N 110.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 15.9N 111.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 15.7N 112.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 15.8N 114.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 107.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY/STEVENSON

Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Oct 03 2023 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 032041 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lidia Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023 300 PM MDT Tue Oct 03 2023 ...LITTLE CHANGE IN LIDIA AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.8N 107.6W ABOUT 480 MI...775 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was located near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 107.6 West. Lidia is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a northwest to north-northwest motion will continue for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast over the next few days, and Lidia could become a hurricane late this week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Kelly/Stevenson

...LITTLE CHANGE IN LIDIA AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD... As of 3:00 PM MDT Tue Oct 3 the center of Lidia was located near 12.8, -107.6 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 022335
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Oct 2 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP98):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with a broad area of low pressure located several
hundred miles south of the coast of southwestern Mexico.
Environmental conditions are expected to remain favorable for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during
the next day or so. The system is forecast to move generally
northwestward through the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

South of Central America:
An area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred miles
south of the coast of Central America during the next few days.
Afterward, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for gradual development of the disturbance, and a tropical
depression could form late this week or over the weekend while
the system moves slowly westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 012327
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Oct 1 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP98):
A tropical wave located several hundred miles south of the coast of
southern and southwestern Mexico continues to produce a large area
of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for development of this system during the
next several days, and a tropical depression is expected to form by
the middle part of this week while it moves west-northwestward to
northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

South of Central America:
A broad area of low pressure could form a few hundred miles south of
the coast of Central America toward the end of this week.
Thereafter, some gradual development of this system is possible
while it moves slowly westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 302331
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Sep 30 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a
tropical wave is located several hundred miles south of the coast of
southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear favorable for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the middle to latter part of next week while
it moves generally northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Pasch

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 292306
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Sep 29 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form well south of the coast
of southwestern Mexico early next week. Environmental conditions
are expected to support at least gradual development of the
disturbance and a tropical depression could form during the middle
to later part of the week while the system moves generally
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 282330
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Sep 28 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Southwestern East Pacific:
A tropical wave located well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Development of this system is not expected due to unfavorable
environmental conditions. The wave is forecast to continue moving
westward across the central Pacific during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

South of Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form south of Mexico early
next week. Slow development of the system will be possible while it
moves generally northwestward off the southwest coast of Mexico
during the middle to late portions of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

815
ABPZ20 KNHC 272319
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Sep 27 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Southwestern East Pacific:
A tropical wave continues to produce an area of showers and
thunderstorms well southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula. Some development of this system remains
possible over the next day or two while it moves generally westward
at about 15 mph. By late Friday, upper-level winds are forecast to
become unfavorable for further development before the system moves
into the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 271711
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Sep 27 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Southwestern East Pacific:
A tropical wave is producing an area of showers and thunderstorms
well southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Some development of this system is possible over the
next couple of days while it moves generally westward at about 15
mph. By this weekend, upper-level winds are forecast to become
unfavorable for further development before the system moves into
the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 261722
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Sep 26 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Southwestern East Pacific:
A tropical wave located well southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula continues to produce disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible
over the next few days while it moves generally westward at about 15
mph. By this weekend, upper-level winds are forecast to become
unfavorable for further development while the system moves into the
Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 251753
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Sep 25 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 24 Sep 2023 20:39:13 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 24 Sep 2023 21:29:21 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM HST Sun Sep 24 2023 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 242038 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142023 1100 AM HST Sun Sep 24 2023 Moderate (15-20 kt) deep-layer shear and an enveloping dry and stable low- to mid-level atmosphere have taken their toll on the depression. The cyclone has lacked organized deep convection since last night and primarily consists of a swirl of low cloud elements, with deep convection well south of the surface center associated with the inter-tropical convergence zone. The initial intensity remains 30 kt based on a Dvorak CI number of 2.0 from TAFB. Despite warm waters ahead of the depression's track, the negative environmental contributions mentioned above should cause the depression to weaken further while impeding deep convective redevelopment. Subsequently, the cyclone is expected to degenerate to a remnant low later tonight and open into a trough in 4 days, or less. The exposed surface circulation's initial motion is estimated to be westward or 270/13 kt. The forecast track philosophy is unchanged. Mid-tropospheric high pressure extending from the Baja California peninsula to the western tropical East Pacific should steer the cyclone on a generally westward track through Monday. A turn toward the west-southwest is expected on Tuesday within the low-level tradewind steering flow through dissipation. The official forecast is an update of the previous one and is based on the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 15.2N 125.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 15.3N 127.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 25/1800Z 15.1N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/0600Z 14.7N 132.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/1800Z 13.8N 135.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 27/0600Z 12.7N 139.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/1800Z 11.5N 142.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts