National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 19 Aug 2024 14:47:38 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 19 Aug 2024 14:47:38 GMT

Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Aug 19 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 191443 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Gilma Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 800 AM PDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Recent AMSR and SSMIS imagery indicate that Gilma's center is located near the northeast edge of its deep convection, with little deep convection present in its northeast quadrant. This is due, at least in part, to upper-level easterly winds that are causing some shear across the cyclone. A consensus of objective and subjective intensity estimates from SAB, TAFB, and UW-CIMSS support an initial intensity of 45 kt for this advisory, which also agree well with earlier ASCAT data. The aforementioned wind shear is expected to persist for at least another day or two, which should limit the potential for strengthening. After around 36 h, global models indicate the shear will begin to decrease, which should allow for more strengthening. The exact timing of this strengthening is still highly uncertain, with several global models suggesting it could begin near the 36 h mark, while the HWRF indicates it won't begin to strengthen until closer to 60 h. Regardless, there is a good chance that Gilma will become a hurricane at some point before the end of the week. No significant changes were made to the intensity forecast, which follows the HCCA and IVCN intensity models. The track forecast is also largely unchanged from the previous NHC advisory. Gilma is currently moving west near 12 kt. A ridge extending westward from the southwest United States should keep Gilma on a similar heading today. After that, the tropical storm may interact with another disturbance to its west, while a trough off the U.S. west coast will begin to erode the ridge slightly. All models indicate that Gilma will generally slow down and turn west-northwestward in response to these steering changes, but there is unusually high spread in the guidance on the exact track the cyclone will take. The NHC track forecast follows the consensus aids, but confidence in the specifics of the forecast is lower than normal due to the high model spread. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 15.1N 116.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 15.3N 117.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 15.8N 119.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 16.5N 121.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 17.0N 122.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 22/0000Z 17.5N 123.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 18.0N 124.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 19.0N 127.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 24/1200Z 20.0N 129.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 19 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 191443 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 1500 UTC MON AUG 19 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 115W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 120W 34 1 15(16) 10(26) 1(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29) 15N 120W 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 3(14) 1(15) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 31(34) 18(52) 1(53) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) 1(18) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 19(32) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 19 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 191443 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 1500 UTC MON AUG 19 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 116.0W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 45SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 116.0W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 115.5W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 15.3N 117.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 15.8N 119.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 16.5N 121.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 17.0N 122.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 17.5N 123.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 18.0N 124.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 19.0N 127.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 20.0N 129.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 116.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Aug 19 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 191443 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gilma Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 800 AM PDT Mon Aug 19 2024 ...GILMA CONTINUES WESTWARD OVER OPEN WATERS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 116.0W ABOUT 670 MI...1080 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gilma was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 116.0 West. Gilma is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). By tonight, a west-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected to begin. Gilma is then expected to remain on that general heading through the middle of the week. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected during the next few days. Gilma could approach hurricane strength by mid-week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

...GILMA CONTINUES WESTWARD OVER OPEN WATERS... As of 8:00 AM PDT Mon Aug 19 the center of Gilma was located near 15.1, -116.0 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191135
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Aug 19 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gilma, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Well East-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP90):
An area of low pressure located well east-southeast of Hawaii
continues to show signs of becoming better organized. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development
and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple
of days. The disturbance is forecast to meander slowly northward
during the next few days, before accelerating west-northwestward
into the Central Pacific basin by the latter portion of the week.
Information on this system's development can also be found in the
Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Western Portion of the East Pacific:
A broad area of shower and thunderstorm activity is located well
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
This system is forecast to move slowly toward the northwest for the
next few days, and interactions with either EP90 to its west or
Gilma to its east could limit the potential for formation.
Regardless, a tropical depression could form within the next few
days. Further development after that time will be unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern and Central Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form well to the south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico around the middle of the week.
Environmental conditions could become conducive for some slow
development of this system thereafter as it moves slowly
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&
The Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin can be
found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP and WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and on
the web at hurricanes.gov

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Gilma are issued under
WMO header WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Gilma are issued under
WMO header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Issued at 200 AM MST Mon Aug 19 2024 109 WTPZ42 KNHC 190844 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Gilma Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 200 AM MST Mon Aug 19 2024 A large convective burst formed during the evening and overnight hours with cloud tops as cold as -80C, and the center of Gilma seems to be underneath the eastern edge of the deep convection. This represents a change from 6 h ago, when the center had been a bit more exposed near the eastern edge of a weaker area of central convection. The convective burst has weakened a bit during the last hour or so, and moderate northeasterly shear still appears to be affecting Gilma. A 19/0412 UTC ASCAT-B pass missed the center of the cyclone, but it did measure winds up to 40 kt to the east of the center. It is uncertain whether these vectors are located near or outside of Gilma's radius of maximum winds. Subjective intensity estimates are T-3.0/45 kt from TAFB and T-2.0/30 kt from SAB. The objective intensity estimates from CIMSS range from 35 to 43 kt, about a 5 kt increase from 6 h ago. Based on the ASCAT data and latest satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity is raised to 45 kt for this advisory. Moderate-to-strong northeasterly vertical wind shear is expected to persist for at least another 36 h, and only slow intensification is forecast in the short term. After that time, the shear is forecast to relax some, and Gilma should be in a more conducive environment for strengthening by Tuesday night or Wednesday. By the end of the forecast period, Gilma is expected to move into a drier and more stable environment, which should begin to induce weakening. The latest intensity forecast is slightly higher than the previous official forecast in the short term due to the higher initial intensity, but after that is similar to the previous forecast. The intensity forecast is slightly lower than the model consensus during the first 48 h and is near the consensus thereafter. Gilma is still moving westward along the south side of a mid-level ridge at about 280/11 kt. A similar motion should continue for the next 24 h followed by a gradual turn to the west-northwest. By Wednesday, Gilma should slow down a bit and turn more northwestward when a trough off the west coast of the United States erodes the ridge. The model spread is quite large through the forecast period, with the GFS being the largest outlier, showing a track well to the north-northeast of the rest of the guidance. Part of the reason for this is how the GFS model handles the interaction with the aforementioned trough, but part of the reason may also be because the GFS model shows a different interaction with a tropical disturbance currently located several hundred miles to the west of Gilma, mentioned in the latest Tropical Weather Outlook. The official track is quite similar to the previous one and lies just a touch south of the consensus aids beyond 48 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 15.0N 114.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 15.2N 116.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 15.5N 118.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 16.0N 119.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 16.7N 121.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 21/1800Z 17.3N 122.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 22/0600Z 17.8N 123.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 23/0600Z 18.6N 125.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 24/0600Z 19.5N 128.3W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Hagen/Pasch

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 19 Aug 2024 08:46:17 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 19 Aug 2024 09:29:23 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 19 2024 831 FOPZ12 KNHC 190841 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 0900 UTC MON AUG 19 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 115W 34 95 X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) 15N 115W 50 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 120W 34 X 5( 5) 21(26) 5(31) 3(34) X(34) X(34) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 6(11) 1(12) X(12) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 8(10) 5(15) 1(16) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 26(49) 5(54) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 3(18) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 18(24) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/PASCH

Issued at 200 AM MST Mon Aug 19 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 190841 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gilma Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 200 AM MST Mon Aug 19 2024 ...GILMA STRENGTHENS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.0N 114.6W ABOUT 625 MI...1005 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gilma was located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 114.6 West. Gilma is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A slightly slower westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. Gilma is forecast to remain well away from land throughout the week. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Pasch

...GILMA STRENGTHENS... As of 2:00 AM MST Mon Aug 19 the center of Gilma was located near 15.0, -114.6 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 19 2024 850 WTPZ22 KNHC 190841 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 0900 UTC MON AUG 19 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 114.6W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 114.6W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 114.1W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 15.2N 116.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 15.5N 118.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 16.0N 119.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 16.7N 121.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 17.3N 122.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.8N 123.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 18.6N 125.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 19.5N 128.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 114.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/PASCH

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 190520
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Aug 18 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gilma, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Well East-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP90):
Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization in
association with a low pressure system located well east-southeast
of the Hawaiian Islands. This disturbance is forecast to interact
with a disturbance located to its east-northeast. If this system
becomes the dominant disturbance, some gradual development is
possible, and a tropical depression could form in the next couple of
days while it initially moves slowly over the western portion of the
East Pacific. A faster west-northwestward motion into the Central
Pacific basin is likely by the latter portion of the week.
Information on this system's development can also be found in the
Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Western Portion of the East Pacific:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a broad trough of low pressure located well west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. This system is
forecast to interact with another disturbance to its west-southwest
over the next few days which could limit additional development.
Regardless, a tropical depression could form during the middle part
of the week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward before
it possibly merges with the disturbance currently located farther
west. Information on this system's development can also be found in
the Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern and Central Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form well to the south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico around the middle of the week.
Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for some slow
development of this system thereafter as it moves slowly
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&
The Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin can be
found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP and WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and on
the web at hurricanes.gov

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Gilma are issued under
WMO header WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Gilma are issued under
WMO header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Pasch

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 19 Aug 2024 02:43:39 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 19 Aug 2024 03:29:10 GMT

Issued at 800 PM MST Sun Aug 18 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 190240 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Gilma Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 800 PM MST Sun Aug 18 2024 Gilma continues to battle easterly shear this evening. Deep convection has been regularly pulsing near the center and then pulled off toward the western side of the circulation. Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were T3.0/45 kt and T2.0/30 kt, respectively. Objective intensity estimates range from 30 to 38 kt. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt, representing a blend of the various estimates. Strong-to-moderate deep vertical wind shear is forecast to persist for the next day or two. Global models vary when the shear will relax, but sometime on Tuesday or Wednesday Gilma should be in a more conducive environment and gradually strengthen. By the end of the forecast period, the storm is expected to move into a drier airmass with increasing upper-level winds, which should induce gradual weakening. The latest intensity forecast is very similar to the previous prediction, slightly higher than the various consensus aids. Gilma is moving westward along the south side of a mid-level ridge at 280/11 kt. A westward to west-northwestward motion should continue for the next couple of days. By Wednesday, Gilma is expected to slow down and turn more northwestward when a trough off of the west coast of the United States erodes the ridge. There is quite a bit of model spread during this period, with the GFS showing a slower forward speed and a more poleward turn compared to some of the regional models which stay farther to the south and move faster. The official track forecast lies near the simple consensus aids and is slightly south of the previous track through 60 h and a little to the north afterwards. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 14.8N 113.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 15.2N 115.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 15.5N 117.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 15.8N 119.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 16.3N 120.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 21/1200Z 17.1N 122.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 17.5N 123.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 23/0000Z 18.3N 125.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 24/0000Z 19.1N 127.8W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Bucci

Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 19 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 190240 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 0300 UTC MON AUG 19 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 115W 34 48 2(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) 15N 115W 50 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 14(16) 12(28) 2(30) 1(31) X(31) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) X(10) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 5(13) 1(14) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 28(40) 7(47) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 4(14) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 19 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 190240 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 0300 UTC MON AUG 19 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 113.5W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 113.5W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 113.0W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 15.2N 115.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 15.5N 117.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 15.8N 119.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 16.3N 120.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 17.1N 122.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 17.5N 123.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 18.3N 125.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 19.1N 127.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 113.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 800 PM MST Sun Aug 18 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 190240 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gilma Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 800 PM MST Sun Aug 18 2024 ...GILMA HEADING WESTWARD AND HOLDING STEADY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 113.5W ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gilma was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 113.5 West. Gilma is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A slightly slower westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. Gilma is forecast to remain well away from land throughout the week. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Bucci

...GILMA HEADING WESTWARD AND HOLDING STEADY... As of 8:00 PM MST Sun Aug 18 the center of Gilma was located near 14.8, -113.5 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.