National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Oct 07 2023 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 072046 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lidia Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023 300 PM MDT Sat Oct 07 2023 ...LIDIA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE AND APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 112.5W ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 112.5 West. Lidia is moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A gradual turn toward the north is expected on Sunday, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected, and Lidia is forecast to become a hurricane in a couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Lidia will begin to affect the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California peninsula today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Berg

...LIDIA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE AND APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... As of 3:00 PM MDT Sat Oct 7 the center of Lidia was located near 16.1, -112.5 with movement W at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 07 2023 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 072046 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM LIDIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152023 2100 UTC SAT OCT 07 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LIDIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 1(12) X(12) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) X(10) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 22(50) X(50) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) X(17) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 10(18) X(18) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 30(43) X(43) SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) SAN BLAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 18(25) X(25) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) X(13) 15N 110W 34 3 3( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) 20N 110W 34 1 3( 4) 5( 9) 20(29) 40(69) X(69) X(69) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 23(27) X(27) X(27) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 9(11) 23(34) 33(67) 16(83) X(83) X(83) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) 18(43) X(43) X(43) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 9(17) 1(18) X(18) ISLA CLARION 34 3 10(13) 7(20) 4(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26) 15N 115W 34 3 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 115W 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/BERG

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 07 2023 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 072045 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM LIDIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152023 2100 UTC SAT OCT 07 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 112.5W AT 07/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 40SE 50SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 110SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 112.5W AT 07/2100Z AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 112.4W FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 16.6N 112.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 40SE 50SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 100SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 17.4N 112.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 90SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 18.2N 112.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 80SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 18.8N 111.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 70SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 19.3N 110.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 80SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 20.3N 107.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 80SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 22.9N 103.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 112.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/BERG

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 062324
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Oct 6 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Lidia, located several hundred miles south of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

South of Southern Mexico (EP99):
Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized in
association with an area of low pressure centered a couple of
hundred miles southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Environmental
conditions are expected to support further development of this
system during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression is
likely to form this weekend. The disturbance is forecast to move
slowly west-northwestward for the next day or so, and then turn
northward and move toward the southern coast of Mexico late Sunday
and Monday. Regardless of development, this system could produce
heavy rainfall along portions of the coast of southern and
southwestern Mexico through early next week. Interests in this area
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 06 Oct 2023 20:40:53 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 06 Oct 2023 21:23:09 GMT

Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri Oct 06 2023 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 062038 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023 300 PM MDT Fri Oct 06 2023 Lidia remains sheared, with its low-level center nearly exposed in recent visible satellite imagery. Confidence in the center position of Lidia is therefore much higher than it was six hours ago. Recent Dvorak intensity fixes still appear to be inflated relative to Lidia's observed structure. Thus, the intensity estimate is again based heavily on objective techniques that incorporate microwave data, such as the UW-CIMSS DMINT, which still support an intensity near 60 kt. For the next 2-3 days, confidence in the NHC track and intensity forecasts is fairly high. Lidia is forecast to continue moving generally westward to west-northwestward today, and then gradually turn northward through the weekend. The tropical storm will likely remain sheared during this time, which should result in only small fluctuations in intensity. Lidia could still become a hurricane tonight or over the weekend. Beyond about 72 h, the forecast uncertainty increases substantially. The tropical storm is forecast to interact with a mid-latitude short-wave trough, which should cause it to accelerate northeastward. The trough interaction will also cause a change in the environmental mid- to upper-level wind pattern, resulting in a southwesterly shear vector and an increase in upper-level difluence. Some models, including both HAFS-A and HAFS-B, indicate that Lidia could begin to strengthen at this time, while others keep it steady-state and strongly sheared. There is also uncertainty with the forward speed of Lidia. For instance, the GFS shows a much faster forward speed than most other models. Run-to-run consistency of the models in the 4-5 day time frame has been poor today, so only very small adjustments were made to the NHC forecast at this time. Larger changes may be required over the weekend as the forecast becomes clearer. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 16.4N 111.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 16.4N 112.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 16.6N 112.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 17.0N 113.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 17.6N 113.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 09/0600Z 18.2N 113.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 18.7N 112.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 19.8N 109.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 11/1800Z 21.5N 107.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Delgado

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 06 2023 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 062037 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM LIDIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152023 2100 UTC FRI OCT 06 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LIDIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 6(15) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 18(23) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 15N 110W 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 3(10) 3(13) 1(14) 20N 110W 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 9(15) 30(45) 9(54) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 3(17) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) 6(14) 22(36) 25(61) 2(63) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 5( 6) 14(20) 1(21) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) ISLA CLARION 34 1 5( 6) 22(28) 19(47) 15(62) 2(64) X(64) ISLA CLARION 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 9(19) 1(20) X(20) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 115W 34 1 3( 4) 6(10) 3(13) 4(17) 1(18) X(18) 20N 115W 34 1 1( 2) 4( 6) 6(12) 13(25) 3(28) X(28) $$ FORECASTER DELGADO/D. ZELINSKY

Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri Oct 06 2023 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 062037 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lidia Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023 300 PM MDT Fri Oct 06 2023 ...SHEARED LIDIA REMAINS NEAR HURRICANE INTENSITY... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 111.2W ABOUT 490 MI...785 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 111.2 West. Lidia is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue over the next day, followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest, and then north, through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is possible during the next day or two, and Lidia could become a hurricane tonight or over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Lidia will begin to affect the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California peninsula on Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Delgado/D. Zelinsky

...SHEARED LIDIA REMAINS NEAR HURRICANE INTENSITY... As of 3:00 PM MDT Fri Oct 6 the center of Lidia was located near 16.4, -111.2 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 06 2023 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 062037 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM LIDIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152023 2100 UTC FRI OCT 06 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 111.2W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 60SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 111.2W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 111.0W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.4N 112.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 16.6N 112.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 17.0N 113.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 17.6N 113.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 18.2N 113.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 18.7N 112.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 19.8N 109.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 21.5N 107.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 111.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z $$ FORECASTER DELGADO/D. ZELINSKY

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 052346
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Oct 5 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Lidia, located several hundred miles southwest of the
southwestern coast of Mexico.

South of Southern Mexico (EP99):
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is associated with a trough of low
pressure. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
gradual development during the next several days, and a tropical
depression is likely to form this weekend or early next week while
the disturbance moves slowly west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Western East Pacific:
An elongated area of low pressure located about 1200 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to
produce disorganized thunderstorms. Any development of this system
would be slow to occur while it moves little during the next couple
of days. By this weekend, environmental conditions are forecast to
become less conducive for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 05 Oct 2023 20:37:46 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 05 Oct 2023 21:29:52 GMT

Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Oct 05 2023 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 052036 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023 300 PM MDT Thu Oct 05 2023 Lidia's overall satellite depiction has not changed much from the previous advisory. There continues to be intermittent burst of deeper convection within the convective shield. A SSMIS microwave pass depicts that the low-level center remains displaced to the east of the mid-level core, suggesting that Lidia has not become any better organized as it continues to battle easterly wind shear. The subjective and objective intensity estimates range from 50 to 65 kt. A partial scatterometer pass hit the NW side of the system but did not depict winds as high as the current estimates, but missed the central core. Given the overall satellite depiction remains similar to this morning, the peak intensity remains 50 kt for this advisory. Lidia continues to move slowly northwestward at 315/3 kt. The system is being steered by a strengthening mid-level ridge centered over central Mexico. As the ridge strengthens, the system will continue to move slowly and turn towards west-northwest then westward. In a few days, a mid-/upper-level trough is forecast to approach from the northwest which will weaken the aforementioned ridge. This will induce another turn of Lidia to the northwest, then north to northeastward through the end of the forecast period. There continues to be some spread within the guidance envelope on the along-track forward speed and when the turn back to the northeast occurs later in the forecast period. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous in the short-term, but is a little faster towards the end of the forecast period based on a blend of the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids. Moderate deep-layer easterly shear should continue over Lidia throughout the forecast period. Sea surface temperatures remain warm along the forecast track, with moist mid-level RH values the next few days. The cyclone should remain a small compact system, which may allow for fluctuations in intensity. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous, and Lidia could become a hurricane this weekend. Some weakening is forecast in about 3 days due to an increase in drier mid-level air and continued easterly shear. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, which lies near the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 16.0N 109.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 16.1N 110.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 16.2N 111.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 16.2N 112.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 16.4N 113.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 08/0600Z 17.0N 113.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 17.5N 113.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 09/1800Z 18.3N 113.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 10/1800Z 18.8N 111.6W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 05 2023 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 052036 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM LIDIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152023 2100 UTC THU OCT 05 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LIDIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 15N 110W 34 14 3(17) 4(21) 2(23) 3(26) 2(28) 3(31) 20N 110W 34 1 X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 4( 8) 6(14) 9(23) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 2( 3) 5( 8) 3(11) 10(21) 12(33) 11(44) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 11(15) 41(56) 10(66) 1(67) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 7(24) 1(25) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) 15N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 10(14) 14(28) 4(32) 1(33) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 13(17) 11(28) 3(31) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) $$ FORECASTER KELLY

Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 05 2023 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 052035 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM LIDIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152023 2100 UTC THU OCT 05 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 109.9W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 109.9W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 109.8W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 16.1N 110.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 16.2N 111.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.2N 112.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 16.4N 113.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 17.0N 113.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 17.5N 113.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 18.3N 113.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 18.8N 111.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 109.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY

Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Oct 05 2023 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 052035 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lidia Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023 300 PM MDT Thu Oct 05 2023 ...LIDIA LEISURELY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 109.9W ABOUT 425 MI...680 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 109.9 West. Lidia is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h) and a general northwest to west-northwest motion is expected through tonight. A turn toward the west is expected by Friday, followed by a turn back toward the west-northwest and then northwest later this weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Lidia could become a hurricane this weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Kelly

...LIDIA LEISURELY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD... As of 3:00 PM MDT Thu Oct 5 the center of Lidia was located near 16.0, -109.9 with movement NW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 042346
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Oct 4 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Lidia, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southwestern coast of Mexico.

South of Central America:
A large, elongated area of showers and thunderstorms located well
south of the coast of Guatemala is associated with a trough of low
pressure. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
gradual development during the next several days, and a tropical
depression is likely to form this weekend or early next week while
the disturbance moves slowly west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Western East Pacific:
An area of low pressure located about 1200 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development of this system,
if any, should be slow to occur while it moves little during the
next couple of days. By this weekend, environmental conditions are
forecast to become less conducive for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 04 Oct 2023 20:40:19 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 04 Oct 2023 21:29:19 GMT