National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 23 2023 218 FOPZ12 KNHC 230238 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM NORMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172023 0300 UTC MON OCT 23 2023 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT LA PAZ 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CULIACAN 34 55 1(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 900 PM MDT Sun Oct 22 2023 271 WTPZ32 KNHC 230237 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Norma Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023 900 PM MDT Sun Oct 22 2023 ...NORMA COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OVERNIGHT OVER SINALOA... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.0N 109.0W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM W OF CULIACAN MEXICO ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM S OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Baja California Sur from Cabo San Lucas to San Evaristo. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Huatabampito to Mazatlan A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere along the west coast of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Norma. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Norma was located near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 109.0 West. Norma is moving toward the east-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). On the forecast track, the center of Norma is forecast to approach the west coast of mainland Mexico tonight and move inland within the tropical storm warning area early Monday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Norma is expected to move over the west coast of mainland Mexico as a tropical storm early Monday. Rapid weakening is anticipated once Norma moves inland over mainland Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Norma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions are ongoing within portions of the tropical storm warning area. RAINFALL: Norma will produce additional rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches with storm total maxima of 18 inches in and near Sinaloa into Monday. These rains will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding is possible along the west coast of mainland Mexico within the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast, the coastal flooding will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. SURF: Swells generated by Norma will continue to affect the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur for the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

...NORMA COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OVERNIGHT OVER SINALOA... As of 9:00 PM MDT Sun Oct 22 the center of Norma was located near 25.0, -109.0 with movement ENE at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 23 2023 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 230236 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM NORMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172023 0300 UTC MON OCT 23 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 109.0W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 130SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 109.0W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 109.2W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 25.3N 108.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 26.0N 107.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N 109.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 23/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 222341
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Oct 22 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Norma, located over the southern Gulf of California, and on
Tropical Storm Otis, located several hundred miles south-southeast
of Acapulco, Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Otis are issued
under WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Otis are issued
under WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Blake

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 22 Oct 2023 02:45:05 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 22 Oct 2023 03:29:00 GMT

Issued at 900 PM MDT Sat Oct 21 2023 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 220244 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Norma Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023 900 PM MDT Sat Oct 21 2023 Norma continues to move across the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula this evening. The satellite depiction of the ill-defined low-level center has been difficult to track through the terrain as the system has decoupled from the mid-level center. Infrared satellite imagery indicates that there continues to be bursts of convection on the northwest side. The land interaction, increasingly southerly shear and dry air is causing Norma to weaken. Subjective and objective Dvorak estimates for this advisory range from 55 to 60 kt. Given the current satellite depiction and the satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity for this advisory is set to 55 kt. The tropical storm is moving north-northeastward or 30 degrees at 5 kt. The system will move across the southern portion of Baja California Sur through tonight. Norma should emerge over the southern Gulf of California early Sunday, then move northeastward to east-northeastward and make landfall along the coast of Sinaloa in western Mexico within the tropical storm warning area. The updated NHC track forecast is similar to the previous, and lies between the simple and corrected consensus aids. Norma is expected to continue weakening due to the aforementioned vertical wind shear, drier air, and land interaction. Once Norma moves inland over mainland Mexico, it will quickly dissipate over the high terrain. The intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory. The official forecast shows a 48 hour remnant low point for continuity, however it is possible that the system could be dissipated by that time. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rains from Norma will continue to impact southern portions of Baja California Sur through Sunday, and through Sinaloa into Monday. This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. 2. Tropical storm conditions will continue through tonight within the Tropical Storm Warning area over the southern Baja California peninsula. 3. Norma is forecast to bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the west coast of mainland Mexico within the Tropical Storm Warning area beginning early Sunday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 23.5N 109.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 24.1N 109.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 23/0000Z 24.5N 108.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 24.9N 107.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 24/0000Z 25.2N 106.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 22 2023 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 220243 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM NORMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172023 0300 UTC SUN OCT 22 2023 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAN JOSE CABO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAN JOSE CABO 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LA PAZ 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LORETO 34 3 X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LOS MOCHIS 34 4 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CULIACAN 34 3 15(18) 4(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) ISLAS MARIAS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAZATLAN 34 4 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER KELLY

Issued at 900 PM MDT Sat Oct 21 2023 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 220243 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Norma Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023 900 PM MDT Sat Oct 21 2023 ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.5N 109.7W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NNE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM W OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Santa Fe to San Evaristo * Topolobampo to Mazatlan A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur and along the west coast of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Norma. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Norma was located near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 109.7 West. Norma is moving toward the north-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h). This general motion should continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward the northeast and east-northeast on Sunday and Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Norma is expected to continue moving across the southern portion of Baja California Sur tonight. Norma is forecast to move toward the west coast of mainland Mexico on Sunday and move inland within the tropical storm warning area on Sunday night or early Monday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Norma is expected to approach the west coast of mainland Mexico as a tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Norma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions are ongoing within the tropical storm warning areas in Baja California Sur. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the west coast of mainland Mexico by early Sunday. RAINFALL: Norma will produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches with maxima of 18 inches across the southern portion of Baja California Sur through Sunday and through Sinaloa into Monday. These rains will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds within the tropical storm warning area in Baja California Sur. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Coastal flooding is possible along the west coast of mainland Mexico within the tropical storm warning area. SURF: Swells generated by Norma will continue to affect the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 22 2023 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 220242 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM NORMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172023 0300 UTC SUN OCT 22 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 109.7W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT.......120NE 110SE 90SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 240SE 240SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 109.7W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 109.8W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 24.1N 109.2W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 24.5N 108.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 24.9N 107.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 25.2N 106.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N 109.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 22/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 212346
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Oct 21 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Storm Norma, located over the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula, north of Cabo San Lucas.

South of Southern Mexico (EP91):
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of
the Gulf of Tehuantepec continues to produce a large area of shower
and thunderstorm activity. The upper-level winds are expected to
become more conducive for development of this system during the next
couple of days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by early
next week. The system is forecast to meander or drift generally
northward through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND... As of 9:00 PM MDT Sat Oct 21 the center of Norma was located near 23.5, -109.7 with movement NNE at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 20 Oct 2023 02:41:36 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 20 Oct 2023 03:31:26 GMT

Issued at 900 PM MDT Thu Oct 19 2023 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 200241 TCDEP2 Hurricane Norma Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023 900 PM MDT Thu Oct 19 2023 The eye of Norma is no longer evident on conventional geostationary satellite imagery, but could still be seen on a recent SSMI/S microwave pass. Deep convection remains very strong near the estimated center with some cloud tops colder than -80 deg C. A few convective banding features are evident over the northern portion of the circulation, and upper-level outflow is still strong over most sectors of the system. The current intensity is set at 105 kt for this advisory, which is a blend of various subjective and objective satellite estimates. This is in best agreement with a recent AI-based objective Dvorak estimate from UW-CIMSS. For the next couple of days, Norma's environment will be characterized by increasing south-southwesterly vertical wind shear, associated with a broad upper-level trough near the Baja California peninsula, along with a drier mid-level air mass. These factors should cause gradual weakening while the system nears southern Baja California Sur, but it is likely that Norma will still be a hurricane when it moves near or over that area. The official intensity forecast is on the higher side of the model guidance during the early part of the forecast period, but close to the corrected model consensus, HCCA at 48 hours and beyond. Although the center fixes are a little more uncertain than earlier today, the initial motion does not appear to have changed much and is around 350/6 kt. Over the next few days, Norma is expected to move between a mid-level high to its east and a trough to the northwest and north. The track guidance models, especially the more reliable ones, have come into a little better agreement, and the NHC forecast track is close to the simple dynamical model consensus. This is also close to the previous official forecast. Key Messages: 1. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the far southern portion of the Baja California peninsula, where Norma is expected to bring hurricane conditions on Saturday when it passes near or over the area. 2. Heavy rains from Norma will begin to impact the far southern portions of California Baja Sur on late Friday, continuing through Sunday This rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 18.2N 108.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 19.2N 108.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 20.6N 109.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 22.1N 109.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 23.2N 109.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 22/1200Z 23.8N 109.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 23/0000Z 24.4N 108.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 24/0000Z 25.3N 106.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI OCT 20 2023 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 200240 PWSEP2 HURRICANE NORMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172023 0300 UTC FRI OCT 20 2023 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 4 23(27) 52(79) 9(88) 3(91) X(91) X(91) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X 3( 3) 30(33) 13(46) 2(48) X(48) X(48) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) 11(11) 8(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) SAN JOSE CABO 34 3 20(23) 52(75) 13(88) 2(90) X(90) X(90) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X 2( 2) 26(28) 18(46) 3(49) X(49) X(49) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) 8( 8) 12(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) LA PAZ 34 1 7( 8) 24(32) 17(49) 8(57) X(57) X(57) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) LORETO 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 5(11) 1(12) X(12) CULIACAN 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 10(17) 1(18) X(18) ISLAS MARIAS 34 5 13(18) 5(23) 2(25) 3(28) X(28) X(28) ISLAS MARIAS 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAZATLAN 34 3 5( 8) 7(15) 4(19) 7(26) 2(28) X(28) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SAN BLAS 34 3 5( 8) 3(11) 2(13) 1(14) 1(15) X(15) P VALLARTA 34 3 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MANZANILLO 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 110W 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 65 25(90) 1(91) X(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92) 20N 110W 50 5 29(34) 2(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) 20N 110W 64 1 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ISLA SOCORRO 34 12 11(23) 2(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) ISLA SOCORRO 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 900 PM MDT Thu Oct 19 2023 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 200240 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Norma Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023 900 PM MDT Thu Oct 19 2023 ...NORMA EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING TO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 108.1W ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur from Todos Santos to Los Barriles A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Los Barriles to La Paz * North of Todos Santos to Santa Fe * Las Islas Marias A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur and along the west coast of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Norma. Additional watches or warnings could be required tonight or on Friday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Norma was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 108.1 West. Norma is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn to the north-northwest at a similar forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. A slower northward to northeastward motion is forecast later this weekend. On the forecast track, Norma is forecast to approach the southern portion of Baja California on Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Norma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some weakening is expected during the next few days, but Norma is forecast to be a hurricane when it moves near the southern portion of Baja California. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Norma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area in Baja California Sur by early Saturday, with tropical storm conditions beginning late Friday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Las Islas Marias Friday and Friday night, and in the watch areas in Baja California Sur on Saturday. RAINFALL: Norma is likely to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches with local maxima of 15 inches through Sunday across the far southern portion of Baja California Sur. These rains will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain. STORM SURGE: A storm surge could produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds within the hurricane warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Norma are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur, and will spread northward along the coast of western Mexico and the Baja California peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...NORMA EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING TO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS... As of 9:00 PM MDT Thu Oct 19 the center of Norma was located near 18.2, -108.1 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 948 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI OCT 20 2023 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 200239 TCMEP2 HURRICANE NORMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172023 0300 UTC FRI OCT 20 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 108.1W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT.......130NE 110SE 100SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 210SE 210SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 108.1W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 108.0W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.2N 108.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.6N 109.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.1N 109.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 23.2N 109.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 23.8N 109.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 24.4N 108.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 25.3N 106.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 108.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 20/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 200014
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Oct 19 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Norma, located several hundred miles south-southeast of Cabo San
Lucas, Mexico.

South of Southern Mexico (EP91):
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of
the Gulf of Tehuantepec continues to produce a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of
this system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the next few days while the system meanders or drifts
generally northward over the far eastern portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 200014
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Oct 19 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Norma, located several hundred miles south-southeast of Cabo San
Lucas, Mexico.

South of Southern Mexico (EP91):
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of
the Gulf of Tehuantepec continues to produce a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of
this system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the next few days while the system meanders or drifts
generally northward over the far eastern portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch