National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 20 Sep 2023 20:39:03 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 20 Sep 2023 21:28:52 GMT

Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 20 2023 870 WTPZ43 KNHC 202038 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132023 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 20 2023 Kenneth's cloud pattern has not changed appreciably during the last 6 hours. The average of the latest TAFB and SAB Dvorak numbers is 45 kt. Most of the objective intensity estimates are a bit lower. Based on the above data, the initial intensity is maintained at 45 kt for this advisory. The center of Kenneth is estimated to be near the southern edge of the central dense overcast. However, the current position is quite uncertain. The initial motion is estimated at 290/9 kt. A turn to the northwest and north-northwest is expected on Thursday between a subtropical high centered over northwestern Mexico and a potent mid- to upper-level trough to the northwest of Kenneth. The track forecast has been adjusted a bit to the north of the previous NHC track prediction, but not as far north as the latest consensus models. Kenneth is currently located in an environment that is favorable enough for it to at least maintain its intensity over the next 12-24 hours. However, a more stable air mass is located just to the north and northwest of the cyclone, as evidenced by scattered low stratus clouds seen on GOES-18 satellite imagery, indicative of a marine boundary layer. As Kenneth approaches the mid- to upper-level trough over the next couple of days, strong southwesterly wind shear will increasingly encroach on Kenneth. Kenneth will also cross the 26C isotherm about the same time the shear ramps up Thursday evening. Therefore, steady weakening is forecast, and Kenneth should become a remnant low Friday night or Saturday. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and is near the middle of the intensity consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 15.7N 124.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 16.2N 125.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 17.3N 126.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 18.5N 126.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 20.0N 127.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 23/0600Z 21.0N 127.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/1800Z 21.8N 127.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen/Roberts

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 20 2023 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 202036 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132023 2100 UTC WED SEP 20 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KENNETH WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/ROBERTS

Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 20 2023 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 202035 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kenneth Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132023 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 20 2023 ...KENNETH MAINTAINING INTENSITY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.7N 124.2W ABOUT 1055 MI...1700 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kenneth was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 124.2 West. Kenneth is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the northwest and north-northwest is anticipated Thursday and Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected to commence by Thursday night, and Kenneth should become a remnant low Friday night or early Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Roberts

...KENNETH MAINTAINING INTENSITY... As of 2:00 PM PDT Wed Sep 20 the center of Kenneth was located near 15.7, -124.2 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 20 2023 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 202035 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132023 2100 UTC WED SEP 20 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 124.2W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 124.2W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 123.9W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 16.2N 125.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 17.3N 126.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 18.5N 126.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 20.0N 127.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 21.0N 127.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 21.8N 127.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 124.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/ROBERTS

107
ABPZ20 KNHC 201752
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Sep 20 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kenneth, located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Western East Pacific (EP96):
An area of low pressure well southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual
development of this system is possible late this week and over the
weekend while it moves generally westward into the Central Pacific
basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Central East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is expected to form in a couple of days
well southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Some slow development of this system is possible this
weekend, and a tropical depression could form by early next week
while it moves westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Roberts

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 192306
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Sep 19 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Kenneth, located about 900 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 19 Sep 2023 20:36:17 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 19 Sep 2023 21:29:25 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 19 2023 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 192035 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132023 2100 UTC TUE SEP 19 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KENNETH WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 X 6( 6) 7(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) 20N 125W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/PASCH

Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Sep 19 2023 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 192035 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132023 200 PM PDT Tue Sep 19 2023 SSMIS and GMI microwave overpasses from this morning around 13Z indicated that the cyclone was still quite disorganized. However, the satellite presentation has improved since that time. The earlier northeasterly to easterly shear appears to be abating. A 1714 UTC ASCAT-B pass confirms that the low-level center is underneath the central cold convective canopy and also shows tropical-storm-force winds up to 40 kt in the NW quadrant. Based on the ASCAT pass, the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Kenneth with 40-kt winds. Based on fixes over the past 6 hours, the center appears to have reformed a bit to the west. The estimated motion is 280/14. A west-northwestward motion is expected through Wednesday night as the cyclone is steered by the trade wind flow. After that time, a potent mid- to upper-level trough approaching from the northwest is expected to cause Kenneth to turn to the northwest or north-northwest. The track forecast was adjusted a bit faster and to the left of the previous NHC prediction, mainly due to the recent center reformation, which caused some of the simple consensus models to be farther west this cycle. The intensity forecast has been adjusted upward based on the higher initial intensity. Warm ocean temperatures, light northeasterly to easterly vertical wind shear, and a moist low to mid-level troposphere currently surround the tropical cyclone. The system has perhaps 36 hours to strengthen while it remains in these relatively favorable environmental conditions. The cyclone is forecast to cross the 26C SST isotherm in about 48 h. The aforementioned approaching mid- to upper-level trough will induce strong southwesterly vertical wind shear on the cyclone beginning by 60 h. After that time, much drier air along with further decreasing ocean temperatures and increasing wind shear will lead to the cyclone losing its convection and becoming a remnant low in about 3 to 4 days. Global models show the system opening up into a trough by Day 5. Given the hostile conditions the cyclone will be moving into, the NHC forecast follows suit and calls for dissipation by Day 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 15.1N 121.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 15.4N 122.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 15.9N 124.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 16.4N 125.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 17.4N 126.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 22/0600Z 19.0N 127.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 20.4N 127.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 23/1800Z 22.3N 128.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen/Pasch

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 19 2023 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 192034 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132023 2100 UTC TUE SEP 19 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 121.0W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 121.0W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 120.5W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 15.4N 122.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 15.9N 124.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 16.4N 125.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 17.4N 126.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 19.0N 127.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 20.4N 127.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 22.3N 128.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 121.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/PASCH

Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Sep 19 2023 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 192034 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kenneth Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132023 200 PM PDT Tue Sep 19 2023 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO ELEVENTH NAMED STORM OF THE 2023 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 121.0W ABOUT 900 MI...1450 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kenneth was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 121.0 West. Kenneth is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A west-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected during the next day or two. A turn to the northwest or north-northwest is expected on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so. A weakening trend is forecast to begin on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Pasch

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO ELEVENTH NAMED STORM OF THE 2023 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON... As of 2:00 PM PDT Tue Sep 19 the center of Kenneth was located near 15.1, -121.0 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191728
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Sep 19 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression Thirteen-E, located several hundred miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181742
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Sep 18 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central East Pacific (EP95):
Satellite imagery indicates a broad area of low pressure located
well south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula is gradually becoming better defined. The system continues
to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity, and
environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for
further development through midweek. A tropical depression is likely
to form during the next couple of days while the system moves
generally west-northwestward over the central and western portions
of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster A. Reinhart/B. Reinhart

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 171730
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Sep 17 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central East Pacific:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located well south of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula continue to show signs of becoming better
organized. This system is currently elongated, but environmental
conditions are expected to allow for additional development during
the next few days. A tropical depression is expected to form by the
middle of the week while the system moves west-northwestward over
the central and western portions of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 16 Sep 2023 20:34:15 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 16 Sep 2023 21:41:50 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM HST Sat Sep 16 2023 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 162033 TCDEP2 Tropical Depression Twelve-E Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122023 1100 AM HST Sat Sep 16 2023 The structure of the depression has degraded during the last several hours. The low-level center is now completely exposed and well removed to the west of a decaying area of deep convection. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt, but this could be a little generous. The system is moving westward at 10 kt. A westward to west-southwestward motion is expected in the low- to mid-level flow during the next day or so. The depression, or its remnant low, is expected to move into the Central Pacific basin this afternoon. Strong shear and dry air will continue to affect the depression and should ultimately cause the system to lose the remaining convection by tonight, as persistently forecast by the GFS and ECMWF models. Dissipation is likely to occur by 36 hours. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 500 PM HST, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP4, WMO header WTPA34 PHFO. Products will continue to be available on the web at hurricanes.gov FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 14.2N 139.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 13.9N 141.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 17/1800Z 13.5N 142.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...DEPRESSION NEAR THE CENTRAL PACIFIC AND POORLY ORGANIZED... ...THE NEXT ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER... As of 11:00 AM HST Sat Sep 16 the center of Twelve-E was located near 14.2, -139.7 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.