National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

...EMILIA EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOON... As of 2:00 PM PDT Thu Aug 8 the center of Emilia was located near 21.6, -123.8 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 08 2024 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 082038 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024 2100 UTC THU AUG 08 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 123.8W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 0SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 123.8W AT 08/2100Z AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 123.4W FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 22.2N 125.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 22.9N 127.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 23.5N 129.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 24.0N 131.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 24.4N 133.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 24.5N 135.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 24.0N 138.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 123.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 081731
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM PDT Thu Aug 8 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Emilia, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

South of Southern Mexico:
A tropical wave located over the far eastern portion of the eastern
Pacific is producing limited and disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system will be possible
during the next next several days while it moves west-northwestward
at around 15 mph, parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 08 Aug 2024 15:56:56 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 08 Aug 2024 15:56:56 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 08 2024 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 081554 CCA TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC THU AUG 08 2024 CORRECTED TO INCLUDE 34 KT WIND RADII AT 09/0000Z TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 123.3W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..280NE 180SE 105SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 123.3W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 122.7W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 21.8N 125.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 22.7N 127.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 23.5N 129.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 24.2N 131.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.7N 133.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 24.9N 134.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 24.5N 138.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 123.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 08 Aug 2024 14:51:38 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 08 Aug 2024 15:28:59 GMT

Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Aug 08 2024 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 081441 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 800 AM PDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Emilia is producing small bursts of convection near its center this morning, with little convective activity elsewhere within the circulation. Based on a blend of the latest Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt. This is also in good agreement with the overnight scatterometer data that showed 30-35 kt winds with the storm. The center of Emilia has been tugged slightly south of the previous forecast track by recent convective bursts, but the long-term motion remains west-northwestward (285/16 kt). The storm is expected to continue on a west-northwestward to westward heading with a slower forward speed over the next few days. The latest NHC track forecast follows the multi-model consensus trends and has been nudged a bit south of the previous prediction. Emilia is moving over cooler waters and into a drier, more stable environment, making it unlikely that Emilia will remain a tropical cyclone for much longer. The updated NHC forecast shows Emilia becoming a post-tropical remnant low in 24 h. The weakening system will likely take a few days to spin down, and the global models indicate the cyclone should open into a trough and dissipate by day 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 21.2N 123.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 21.8N 125.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 22.7N 127.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 10/0000Z 23.5N 129.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 10/1200Z 24.2N 131.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 11/0000Z 24.7N 133.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 11/1200Z 24.9N 134.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/1200Z 24.5N 138.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 08 2024 477 FOPZ15 KNHC 081440 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC THU AUG 08 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 125W 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Aug 08 2024 480 WTPZ35 KNHC 081440 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Emilia Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 800 AM PDT Thu Aug 08 2024 ...EMILIA MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER OPEN WATERS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.2N 123.3W ABOUT 865 MI...1390 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Emilia was located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 123.3 West. Emilia is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion at a slower forward speed is expected into the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected over the next few days, and Emilia is forecast to become a remnant low on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...EMILIA MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER OPEN WATERS... As of 8:00 AM PDT Thu Aug 8 the center of Emilia was located near 21.2, -123.3 with movement WNW at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 08 2024 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 081439 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC THU AUG 08 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 123.3W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..280NE 180SE 105SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 123.3W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 122.7W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 21.8N 125.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 22.7N 127.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 23.5N 129.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 24.2N 131.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.7N 133.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 24.9N 134.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 24.5N 138.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 123.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 081138
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Aug 8 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Emilia, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

South of Southern Mexico:
A tropical wave over the far eastern portion of the east Pacific is
currently producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity.
Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for gradual
development of the system while it moves west-northwestward at
around 15 mph, parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Cangialosi

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 08 Aug 2024 08:52:29 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 08 Aug 2024 09:29:25 GMT

Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 08 2024 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 080851 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Emilia is quickly weakening. Two scatterometer passes from 0442 and 0535 UTC showed winds up to 35 kt with an elongated center and a large area of light winds in the southwest quadrant. Even the area of tropical-storm-force winds shrunk notably by the time of the latter ASCAT pass. The center has an isolated, small burst of convection with some decaying thunderstorms in fragmented rainbands around the northern semicircle of the circulation. The initial intensity has been lowered to 35 kt. The oceanic and atmospheric conditions are becoming increasingly hostile. Emilia is expected to continue weakening over the next couple of days and is now forecast to become a remnant low on Friday. Though, if satellite trends continue, this could occur sooner. The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at 18 kt. This motion, with a decreased forward speed, should continue though the weekend as Emilia is steered by a mid-level ridge centered to the storm's northeast. The latest NHC track forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 21.1N 121.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 21.8N 123.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 22.7N 126.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 23.4N 128.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 10/0600Z 24.1N 130.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 10/1800Z 24.7N 131.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 11/0600Z 25.1N 133.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/0600Z 25.4N 136.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/0600Z 25.0N 139.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci

Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 08 2024 096 FOPZ15 KNHC 080850 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024 0900 UTC THU AUG 08 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 08 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 080850 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Emilia Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 08 2024 ...EMILIA EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.1N 121.9W ABOUT 780 MI...1250 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Emilia was located near latitude 21.1 North, longitude 121.9 West. Emilia is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this motion with a slower forward speed is expected into the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast, and Emilia is likely to become a remnant low by Friday afternoon or evening. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Bucci

...EMILIA EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON FRIDAY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Thu Aug 8 the center of Emilia was located near 21.1, -121.9 with movement WNW at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 08 2024 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 080849 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024 0900 UTC THU AUG 08 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 121.9W AT 08/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......130NE 100SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 150SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 121.9W AT 08/0900Z AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 121.0W FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.8N 123.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 22.7N 126.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 23.4N 128.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 24.1N 130.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 24.7N 131.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 25.1N 133.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 25.4N 136.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 25.0N 139.0W...DISSIPATED MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N 121.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 080549
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Aug 7 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Emilia, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

South of Southern Mexico:
A tropical wave moving over Central America is expected to emerge
over the far eastern portion of the east Pacific Ocean later today.
Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for gradual
development of the system while it moves west-northwestward at 15 to
20 mph, parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 08 Aug 2024 02:50:11 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 08 Aug 2024 03:29:14 GMT