National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Aug 07 2024 925 WTPZ35 KNHC 070846 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Emilia Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024 200 AM PDT Wed Aug 07 2024 ...EMILIA PASSING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF CLARION ISLAND ... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 116.4W ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Emilia was located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 116.4 West. Emilia is moving toward the north-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn and acceleration to the northwest is expected later today, followed by a gradual turn to the west-northwest with a slower forward speed on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected to begin later tonight or tomorrow morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Bucci

...EMILIA PASSING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF CLARION ISLAND ... As of 2:00 AM PDT Wed Aug 7 the center of Emilia was located near 17.1, -116.4 with movement NNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 07 2024 395 WTPZ25 KNHC 070846 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024 0900 UTC WED AUG 07 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 116.4W AT 07/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 60SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 120SE 110SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 300SE 210SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 116.4W AT 07/0900Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 116.0W FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 18.9N 117.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 120SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.6N 120.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.4N 123.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 22.1N 125.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 22.7N 127.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 23.3N 129.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 24.2N 133.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 24.5N 137.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 116.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 070533
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Aug 6 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Emilia, located several hundred miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on Tropical Storm
Fabio, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 07 Aug 2024 02:54:08 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 07 Aug 2024 03:29:22 GMT

Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 06 2024 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 070253 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Emilia continues to display a large cold convective area on infrared satellite imagery. A helpful 06/2108 UTC AMSR2 pass indicated that the center of Emilia was a bit farther to the northeast than previously thought. This places the center farther away from the middle of the central convective area, and closer to the northern edge of the deep convection. This is not surprising, since the SHIPS intensity guidance continues to diagnose 15 to 20 kt of northeasterly vertical wind shear. Although the CIMSS ADT is showing a current intensity of 59 kt, the farther north placement of the center relative to the convection means that the cyclone might not be quite that strong. The intensity is held at 55 kt for this advisory. Emilia has been moving just west of due north, or 350/8-kt. Emilia should gradually turn more toward the northwest over the next 24 h as it gets closer to Tropical Storm Fabio, which is currently located only about 260 n mi north of Emilia. After Emilia absorbs Fabio in 24 to 36 h, a turn toward the west-northwest is expected. The west-northwest motion should continue after that time, as Emilia weakens and is steered more by the low-level flow. Emilia is still feeling the effects of moderate northeasterly wind shear, as mentioned above. The shear is forecast to diminish in 12 to 24 h, but interactions with Fabio's circulation could complicate the intensity forecast. Some slight intensification is possible during the next 12-18 h if Emilia is able to fight off the moderate wind shear. Emilia is expected to move into SSTs colder than 26C in 24-36 h, so steady weakening is forecast beyond that time. The latest intensity forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. The GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery suggests that Emilia should become a remnant low by 96 h, and the NHC forecast follows suit with those solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 15.7N 115.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 17.4N 116.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 19.3N 118.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 20.5N 121.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 21.4N 123.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 09/1200Z 22.1N 126.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 22.7N 128.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 11/0000Z 23.7N 132.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 12/0000Z 24.5N 136.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Hagen/Beven

Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 07 2024 173 FOPZ15 KNHC 070250 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024 0300 UTC WED AUG 07 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 20 2(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) 15N 115W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 115W 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 115W 34 5 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 120W 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 120W 34 2 29(31) 48(79) 1(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) 20N 120W 50 X 3( 3) 40(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/BEVEN

Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 07 2024 230 WTPZ25 KNHC 070249 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024 0300 UTC WED AUG 07 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 115.5W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 60SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 120SE 110SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 300SE 180SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 115.5W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 115.2W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 17.4N 116.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 120SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 19.3N 118.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 20.5N 121.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 21.4N 123.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 22.1N 126.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 22.7N 128.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 23.7N 132.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 24.5N 136.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 115.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/BEVEN

Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 06 2024 231 WTPZ35 KNHC 070249 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Emilia Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 06 2024 ...EMILIA MOVING NORTHWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.7N 115.5W ABOUT 615 MI...990 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Emilia was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 115.5 West. Emilia is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn to the northwest is expected by Wednesday morning, followed by a gradual turn to the west-northwest on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next 12 to 24 hours. Weakening is expected to begin Wednesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Beven

...EMILIA MOVING NORTHWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 8:00 PM PDT Tue Aug 6 the center of Emilia was located near 15.7, -115.5 with movement N at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 07 Aug 2024 02:49:36 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 07 Aug 2024 03:35:05 GMT

Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 06 2024 678 WTPZ41 KNHC 070248 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062024 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Deep convection associated with Fabio has decreased significantly since the previous advisory, with most of the convection off to the northeast of the low-level center. The latest subjective intensity estimates are 45 kt from both TAFB and SAB, and recent objective intensity estimates from CIMSS range from 35 to 53 kt. The intensity is lowered a bit to 45 kt, which is a compromise of the data. Moderate westerly wind shear should continue to be an issue for the next 12 h or so. After that, Fabio will increasingly interact with Emilia as SSTs along Fabio's path decrease to below 26C in 18 to 24 h. These factors are likely to cause some additional weakening before Fabio dissipates or merges with Emilia. Fabio should move on a west-northwest course over the next 24 h. The 18Z GFS and 12Z ECMWF models are both forecasting Fabio to dissipate or merge with Emilia in 24 to 36 h. Therefore, the NHC forecast now calls for dissipation by hour 36. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 20.0N 115.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 20.6N 117.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 20.9N 120.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen/Beven

Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 07 2024 473 FOPZ11 KNHC 070247 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM FABIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062024 0300 UTC WED AUG 07 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FABIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 115W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 120W 34 1 16(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/BEVEN

Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 06 2024 189 WTPZ31 KNHC 070247 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fabio Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062024 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 06 2024 ...FABIO WEAKENS AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE CIRCULATION OF EMILIA TO ITS SOUTH... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.0N 115.4W ABOUT 725 MI...1170 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fabio was located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 115.4 West. Fabio is moving toward the northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h). A motion toward the west-northwest is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the west later on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next day or so until Fabio merges with Emilia. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Beven

...FABIO WEAKENS AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE CIRCULATION OF EMILIA TO ITS SOUTH... As of 8:00 PM PDT Tue Aug 6 the center of Fabio was located near 20.0, -115.4 with movement NW at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 07 2024 595 WTPZ21 KNHC 070247 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM FABIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062024 0300 UTC WED AUG 07 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 115.4W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 180SE 45SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 115.4W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 114.6W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 20.6N 117.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.9N 120.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 115.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/BEVEN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 062301
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Aug 6 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Emilia, located several hundred miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on Tropical
Storm Fabio, located a few hundred miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Beven

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 06 Aug 2024 20:54:43 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 06 Aug 2024 21:29:17 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 06 Aug 2024 20:54:23 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 06 Aug 2024 21:35:07 GMT

Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 06 2024 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 062053 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Satellite imagery shows curved banding that has become slightly more impressive over the past 6 h, and there are signs that the RMW may have contracted a bit. Emilia has a much healthier appearance on satellite imagery compared to Fabio, which is currently centered about 320 miles to the north-northeast of Emilia. The latest subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB range from 55-65 kt, and the latest reliable objective intensity estimates from CIMSS range from 48 to 59 kt. The intensity is held at 55 kt for this advisory, but this estimate could be slightly conservative. Emilia is moving slowly northwestward, or 325/3-kt. The northerly flow to the west of Fabio is keeping Emilia's forward speed slow for now. However, as Fabio moves farther west over the next day or so, Emilia will accelerate to the northwest. The confidence in the track forecast is below average due to the complex interaction with Fabio. The latest forecast was adjusted slightly to the right and slightly slower than the previous official forecast for about the first 36 h, closer to the latest model consensus. Emilia is forecast to absorb Fabio into its circulation by Thursday, but there are some timing differences among the various models. The timing and location of the merger is a blend of the 12Z GFS and 12Z ECMWF model solutions. After the merger, Emilia will turn toward the west-northwest as it is steered more by the lower-level flow. The track forecast beyond 48 h is very close to the previous NHC forecast. The interaction with Fabio makes the intensity forecast challenging. The NHC forecast continues to favor the solution in which Emilia absorbs Fabio in 36 to 48 h. Emilia has been able to fight off moderate northeasterly vertical wind shear so far, and it seems reasonable that the cyclone could intensify a bit more over the next 24 h as it remains over warm ocean waters. Emilia is forecast to cross the 26C isotherm by 36 h, and steady weakening is expected after that time. Emilia should weaken below tropical storm strength on Friday and become a remnant low on Saturday. The latest intensity forecast is near the middle of the intensity guidance and is similar to the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 14.4N 115.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 15.5N 116.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 17.6N 117.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 19.5N 119.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 20.9N 122.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 09/0600Z 21.6N 125.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 22.2N 127.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 23.1N 132.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 11/1800Z 24.1N 136.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Hagen/Hogsett