National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

...HILARY APPROACHING MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS... As of 3:00 PM MDT Thu Aug 17 the center of Hilary was located near 16.1, -108.9 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 960 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 17 2023 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 172054 TCMEP4 HURRICANE HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092023 2100 UTC THU AUG 17 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 108.9W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT.......100NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT.......240NE 200SE 100SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 180SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 108.9W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 108.4W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 17.0N 110.4W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT...240NE 200SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 18.4N 112.0W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT...250NE 220SE 120SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 20.3N 113.0W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...250NE 230SE 140SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 22.4N 113.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...250NE 220SE 150SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 25.0N 114.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...250NE 220SE 160SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 28.5N 115.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...200NE 220SE 140SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 35.4N 118.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 43.0N 120.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 108.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 18/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 171753
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Aug 17 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Hilary, located several hundred miles south-southeast of the
southern tip of Baja California peninsula.

South of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form offshore of the coast of
southern Mexico during the early or middle part of next week. Some
gradual development of this system is possible thereafter while it
moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 17 Aug 2023 14:51:52 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 17 Aug 2023 15:22:49 GMT

Issued at 500 AM HST Thu Aug 17 2023 190 WTPZ42 KNHC 171450 TCDEP2 Post-Tropical Cyclone Fernanda Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072023 500 AM HST Thu Aug 17 2023 Fernanda has lacked convective activity since yesterday evening and is therefore considered a post-tropical cyclone. With no convective activity, Dvorak estimates are no longer a reliable source for intensity guidance. The initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt for this advisory largely based on the trend in geostationary satellite imagery. An occasional burst of convection is still possible given 25-26 degrees C sea surface temperatures along the forecast track of Fernanda. Model guidance indicates the cyclone will continue to weaken in an increasingly dry and stable environment for the next few days and is likely to dissipate by day 3. The remnant low is moving westward at 13 kt. This general motion is expected to continue for the next few days as the system is steered by the low-level flow around a ridge to its north. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. Those forecasts can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 16.4N 132.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 18/0000Z 16.4N 134.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 18/1200Z 16.4N 136.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 19/0000Z 16.4N 139.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/1200Z 16.3N 141.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 20/0000Z 16.4N 144.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci

Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 17 2023 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 171450 PWSEP2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FERNANDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072023 1500 UTC THU AUG 17 2023 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FERNANDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 132.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 500 AM HST Thu Aug 17 2023 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 171450 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Fernanda Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072023 500 AM HST Thu Aug 17 2023 ...FERNANDA BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 132.2W ABOUT 1515 MI...2440 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Fernanda was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 132.2 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Fernanda is likely to dissipate by the weekend. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. $$ Forecaster Bucci

...FERNANDA BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY... As of 5:00 AM HST Thu Aug 17 the center of Fernanda was located near 16.4, -132.2 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 17 2023 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 171449 TCMEP2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072023 1500 UTC THU AUG 17 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 132.2W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 132.2W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 131.5W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 16.4N 134.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 16.4N 136.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.4N 139.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.3N 141.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 16.4N 144.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 132.2W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATION WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 16 Aug 2023 20:46:55 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 16 Aug 2023 21:35:57 GMT

Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 162044 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Hilary Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023 400 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023 Hilary has not changed much this afternoon. A large burst of convection, with cloud top temperatures colder than -85 degrees C, continues to obscure the low-level circulation and some outflow has developed on the southern semicircle of the storm. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates range from 30 to 43 kt and the initial intensity is remains at 35 kt. The storm is moving to the west-northwest at 13 kt. Hilary is forecast to gradually turn, first to the northwest by day 2 and then to the north-northwest by day 3 with the same general forward motion. This is likely driven by a building ridge over the United States and a trough off the coast of California. The short-term track prediction has shifted to the right of the previous forecast, largely due to an adjustment in the rather uncertain initial position. It is closest to the simple consensus aid, TVCE. Strengthening is still expected due to the conducive atmospheric conditions and warm sea surface temperatures. Hilary is forecast to be in an area of weak vertical wind shear through 72-96 hours and remain over warm waters through 72 hours. Therefore, steady to rapid intensification is anticipated and the official forecast shows Hilary becoming a hurricane in 24 hours. However, the system is broad and it could take slightly longer to initially consolidate and strengthen. Beyond day 3, Hilary is forecast to cross over a gradient of cooling ocean waters which should induce a weakening trend. The system is still expected to be post-tropical by the end of the forecast period. It is important to remind users to not focus on the exact forecast track and intensity of Hilary, especially in the latter parts of the forecast period. Due to the nearly parallel angle of approach to the Baja California peninsula, small changes in the cross track position may result in large changes to when and where the system ultimately approaches the coast. Regardless, wind and rainfall impacts are likely to extend far from the center of Hilary. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Hilary has the potential to bring impacts to the Baja California Peninsula and portions of the southwestern United States this weekend. Although it is too soon to determine the location and magnitude of rainfall and wind impacts, interests in these areas should monitor the progress of Hilary and updates to the forecast. 2. Large swells from Hilary will spread northward along the coast of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula during the next days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 13.7N 103.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 14.5N 105.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 15.6N 107.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 16.8N 109.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 18/1800Z 18.2N 111.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 19/0600Z 20.0N 112.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 19/1800Z 22.3N 113.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 20/1800Z 27.8N 115.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 21/1800Z 34.3N 118.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Bucci

Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 16 2023 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 162044 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM HILARY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092023 2100 UTC WED AUG 16 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILARY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT OXNARD CA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) OXNARD CA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) OXNARD CA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) SANTA CRUZ IS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) SANTA CRUZ IS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) SANTA CRUZ IS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) LONG BEACH/LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) LONG BEACH/LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) LONG BEACH/LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) S CATALINA IS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 32(33) S CATALINA IS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) S CATALINA IS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SAN DIEGO CA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 35(37) SAN DIEGO CA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) SAN DIEGO CA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) YUMA AZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) TIJUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) TIJUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ENSENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 38(42) ENSENADA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) ENSENADA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 15(25) IS GUADALUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) IS GUADALUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 53(54) 8(62) PUNTA EUGENIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 6(27) PUNTA EUGENIA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 62(65) 2(67) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 1(31) P ABREOJOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 3(18) X(18) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 4(15) X(15) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 8(20) 1(21) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 23(28) 1(29) LORETO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) LORETO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) P PENASCO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 2(19) BAHIA KINO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 15N 105W 34 94 4(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) 15N 105W 50 39 21(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) 15N 105W 64 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 12(14) 4(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 39(43) 13(56) X(56) X(56) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) 1(14) X(14) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 76(86) 9(95) X(95) X(95) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 51(52) 18(70) X(70) X(70) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 28(28) 16(44) X(44) X(44) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 18(24) 1(25) X(25) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 38(42) 2(44) X(44) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 1(14) X(14) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 56(71) 1(72) 25N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 35(37) 1(38) 25N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 1(19) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 30N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 30N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 30N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 162043 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hilary Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023 400 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023 ...HILARY EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 103.7W ABOUT 370 MI...590 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of this system. Watches will likely be required for a portion of that area as soon as this evening. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hilary was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 103.7 West. Hilary is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue with a gradual turn to the northwest by Friday followed by a turn to the north-northwest on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast for the next few days. Hilary is expected to become a hurricane on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula over the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Bucci

...HILARY EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW... As of 4:00 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 the center of Hilary was located near 13.7, -103.7 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 16 2023 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 162043 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092023 2100 UTC WED AUG 16 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 103.7W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......180NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 105SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 103.7W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 103.1W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.5N 105.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...240NE 120SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 15.6N 107.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...240NE 180SE 110SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 16.8N 109.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...240NE 220SE 130SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 18.2N 111.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...240NE 220SE 140SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 20.0N 112.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...270NE 240SE 150SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 22.3N 113.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...240NE 240SE 160SW 180NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 27.8N 115.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 34.3N 118.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 103.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 1100 AM HST Wed Aug 16 2023 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 162034 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Fernanda Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072023 1100 AM HST Wed Aug 16 2023 Fernanda's weakening trend appears to be continuing. Deep convection remains minimal, and is confined to a few cells over the southwestern portion of the circulation while the system moves over marginal SSTs and into a dry low- to mid-level air mass. There have been no recent scatterometer overpasses from which to estimate intensity. Assuming a continued spin down of the circulation, the advisory intensity is set to a somewhat uncertain 45 kt. The cyclone has been moving just slightly south of due west or 260/12 kt. A mid-level ridge is forecast to remain established to the north of Fernanda through 72 hours. This should maintain a mostly westward track for the next few days. There is little change to the new official track forecast, which remains close to the multi-model dynamical consensus. Sea surface temperatures beneath the cyclone should gradually decrease and the environmental air mass is expected to become even drier over the next couple of days. Therefore, continued weakening is expected which should result in Fernanda degenerating into a post-tropical cyclone in 12 hours and dissipating within 72 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 16.8N 127.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 16.6N 130.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 17/1800Z 16.6N 132.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/0600Z 16.7N 135.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/1800Z 16.7N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 19/0600Z 16.7N 140.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 16 Aug 2023 20:34:57 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 16 Aug 2023 21:23:05 GMT

...FERNANDA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... As of 11:00 AM HST Wed Aug 16 the center of Fernanda was located near 16.8, -127.8 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 161737
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Aug 16 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Storm Fernanda, located well to
the west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula, and has begun issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Storm Hilary, located several hundred miles
south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico.

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec
over the weekend. Some gradual development of this system is
possible thereafter while it moves generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Hilary are issued under WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.
Forecast/Advisories on Hilary are issued under WMO header WTPZ24
KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 15 Aug 2023 20:47:10 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 15 Aug 2023 21:23:07 GMT