National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun Aug 06 2023 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 062032 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Eugene Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062023 300 PM MDT Sun Aug 06 2023 Eugene is sending some mixed signals this afternoon. While earlier a possible eye feature was present on the visible imagery, the feature has weakened and become part of a ragged central dense overcast. Overall, the system doesn't seem much different than the last advisory, so 60 kt is maintained on this cycle. The Dvorak estimate ranges are quite large, with estimates of 40-65 kt, so the initial wind is a bit more uncertain than average. The storm should begin to weaken overnight as it crosses a tight sea-surface temperature gradient, with very cold waters along the forecast track within 24 h. By early Tuesday, Eugene should transition to a non-convective post-tropical low, consistent with the stable environment and the latest global model infrared satellite forecasts. The new NHC forecast is slightly lower than the last one, between the model consensus and the NOAA corrected-consensus prediction. Eugene is moving along pretty quickly to the west-northwest at about 17 kt. This motion should continue for about a day until it reaches the edge of the subtropical ridge. Thereafter, a weaker cyclone should slow down and turn northward toward a weakness in the ridge. However, the very hostile environment should cause what's left of Eugene to stall well west of Baja California and degenerate to a trough in about 3 days. The latest NHC track is basically an update of the previous one, close to the eastern Pacific track consensus TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 22.7N 113.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 23.7N 115.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 24.9N 118.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 25.7N 121.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 08/1800Z 26.5N 122.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 09/0600Z 27.0N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 06 2023 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 062031 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM EUGENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062023 2100 UTC SUN AUG 06 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EUGENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 115W 34 16 3(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) 25N 120W 34 1 16(17) 22(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) 25N 120W 50 X 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 25N 120W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 06 2023 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 062031 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM EUGENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062023 2100 UTC SUN AUG 06 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 113.2W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 90SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 113.2W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 112.4W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.7N 115.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 24.9N 118.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 25.7N 121.1W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 26.5N 122.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 27.0N 122.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 113.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun Aug 06 2023 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 062031 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eugene Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062023 300 PM MDT Sun Aug 06 2023 ...EUGENE MOVING QUICKLY AWAY FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.7N 113.2W ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eugene was located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 113.2 West. Eugene is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this motion should continue for the next day or so, followed by a turn to the north and a sharp reduction in forward speed. Eugene should continue moving farther away from Baja California Sur. Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast tonight, followed by steady weakening likely starting on Monday. Eugene could become a post-tropical cyclone late on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Eugene will affect portions of the coasts of west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

...EUGENE MOVING QUICKLY AWAY FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... As of 3:00 PM MDT Sun Aug 6 the center of Eugene was located near 22.7, -113.2 with movement WNW at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 061719
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Aug 6 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Eugene, located just over 100 miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula. The National Hurricane Center
has issued its last advisory on Hurricane Dora, which is located
over the central Pacific basin, about 1000 miles east-southeast of
the Hawaiian islands. Future advisories on Dora will be issued by
the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&
Future information on Dora can be found in Public Advisories issued
by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 1100 AM
HST/2100 UTC Sunday, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP2, and WMO header
WTPA32 PHFO. Products will continue to be available on the web at
hurricanes.gov

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Aug 2023 20:39:40 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Aug 2023 21:23:15 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Aug 2023 20:39:13 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Aug 2023 21:29:56 GMT

Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Aug 05 2023 444 WTPZ41 KNHC 052038 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Eugene Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062023 300 PM MDT Sat Aug 05 2023 This afternoon's satellite presentation of the system has improved, with a well-developed curved band in its eastern semicircle and a recent burst of deep convection with -75 Celsius cloud tops just east of the surface circulation. Based on this and a consensus of the objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS, the system is being upgraded to Tropical Storm Eugene, making it the fifth tropical storm of the eastern North Pacific hurricane season. Although dry mid-tropospheric air originating from mainland Mexico may be negatively affecting the cyclone's intensification rate, as indicated by the presence of a few arc clouds, a brief window of opportunity still exists for further strengthening during the next day or so. By mid-period, Eugene is expected to move over the cooler water west of the Baja California peninsula and enter a surrounding dry and stable marine-layer air mass. The NHC forecast calls for the cyclone to degenerate to a remnant low by 72 hours, or sooner, and dissipation in 5 days which is slightly below the Decay SHIPS statistical guidance, but close to the LGEM and the usually reliable intensity consensus guidance. The initial estimated motion is northwestward or 315/13 kt. The track forecast philosophy remains unchanged, and Eugene should move generally northwestward in the short term within the southeasterly mid-level steering flow provided by a subtropical ridge to the north. By 48 hours, the vertically shallow cyclone should turn toward the west-northwest in the lower boundary trade wind flow while a reduction in forward speed takes place, possibly meandering before dissipating next week. The updated NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous official forecast and lies near the various consensus models. Although the track forecast is currently off the southwestern coast of Mexico, enough uncertainty still exists that interests in the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 19.2N 107.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 20.5N 109.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 22.0N 112.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 23.4N 115.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 24.6N 118.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 08/0600Z 25.6N 120.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 26.2N 121.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 09/1800Z 27.5N 121.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts

Issued at 1100 AM HST Sat Aug 05 2023 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 052037 TCDEP5 Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023 1100 AM HST Sat Aug 05 2023 Dora has become significantly better organized over the past six hours, with a well-defined 15 n mi wide eye inside a cold central dense overcast. The various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are now in the 100-120 kt range, and the initial intensity is increased to 115 kt in best agreement with the subjective estimates from TAFB and SAB. As noted in the last several advisories, Dora continues moving westward along the southern side of a deep-layer ridge to the north. This ridge is expected to build westward for the next three days or so, which should induce a somewhat faster forward speed while it passes well south of Hawaii early next week. There has been little change to the track guidance since the last advisory, and the new forecast track is again almost identical to the old track. Dora is moving over sea surface temperatures near 27C, and it is currently in a light-shear environment. This is at least partly responsible for the current intensification. The intensity guidance suggests this round of intensification should be almost over, although there is some uncertainty in this since it underestimated how strong the storm would get today. Based on the current trends and the current guidance, the intensity forecast calls for some additional strengthening during the next 12 h, followed by some weakening. After 48 h, while Dora should remain over 27C sea surface temperatures and in light shear through 96 h, it is expected to encounter a drier environment and an area of upper-level convergence. These factors should lead to continued gradual weakening, with the caveat that there is a large spread in the guidance on how much weakening will occur. The early part of the intensity forecast follows the upper edge of the intensity guidance, while the 60-120 h portion is in best agreement with the SHIPS model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 13.3N 134.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 13.1N 137.3W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 12.9N 140.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 12.7N 144.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 12.5N 148.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 08/0600Z 12.4N 152.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 12.3N 156.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 09/1800Z 12.5N 164.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 10/1800Z 13.5N 171.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

...DORA REGAINS CATEGORY FOUR INTENSITY... ...FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN ON SUNDAY... As of 11:00 AM HST Sat Aug 5 the center of Dora was located near 13.3, -134.8 with movement W at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 950 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 05 2023 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 052037 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM EUGENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062023 2100 UTC SAT AUG 05 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EUGENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 2 13(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 9(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) LA PAZ 34 1 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 110W 34 50 8(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) 20N 110W 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 16(18) 5(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) 25N 115W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 13(21) X(21) X(21) 25N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 05 2023 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 052036 TCMEP5 HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052023 2100 UTC SAT AUG 05 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 134.8W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 134.8W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 134.0W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 13.1N 137.3W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 12.9N 140.9W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 12.7N 144.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 12.5N 148.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 12.4N 152.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 12.3N 156.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 12.5N 164.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 13.5N 171.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 134.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 05 2023 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 052036 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM EUGENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062023 2100 UTC SAT AUG 05 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 107.7W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 107.7W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 107.2W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 20.5N 109.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.0N 112.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.4N 115.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 24.6N 118.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 25.6N 120.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 26.2N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 27.5N 121.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 107.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Aug 05 2023 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 052036 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eugene Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062023 300 PM MDT Sat Aug 05 2023 ...DEPRESSION BECOMES THE FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 107.7W ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eugene was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 107.7 West. Eugene is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion should continue through the weekend followed by a turn toward the west-northwest early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some further strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. Afterward, weakening is expected and the cyclone should quickly become a remnant low in 3 days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall associated with Eugene will remain mostly off the southwest Mexican coast. The outer edges of rainfall from the depression may produce 1 to 2 inches of rain along the coastal sections of the southwestern Mexican states of Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit and the southern portion of Baja California Sur. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts

...DEPRESSION BECOMES THE FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON... As of 3:00 PM MDT Sat Aug 5 the center of Eugene was located near 19.2, -107.7 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 051738
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Aug 5 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Dora, located more than 1600 miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula, and newly formed Tropical
Depression Six-E, located a few hundred miles south-southeast of
the Baja California peninsula.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Six-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Six-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 04 Aug 2023 20:37:26 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 04 Aug 2023 21:23:10 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM HST Fri Aug 04 2023 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 042035 TCDEP5 Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023 1100 AM HST Fri Aug 04 2023 While there are occasional hints of an eye in visible and infrared satellite imagery, the organization of Dora has decreased a little since the last advisory. This is most notable in the eastern semicircle, where the size of the central dense overcast has diminished due to the effects of easterly shear. Satellite intensity estimates are now in the 90-105 kt range, and the initial intensity is reduced to a somewhat uncertain 95 kt. This is starting to sound like a stuck record, but the initial motion is again 265/16 kt. The track guidance and the track forecast philosophy are again unchanged from the previous advisory, as a deep-layer ridge to the north of the storm is forecast to build westward and keep Dora on the same general trajectory for entire forecast period. The new forecast track has noise-level adjustments from the previous track. The current shear should let up in the next 12-18 h, but until that time Dora should continue to weaken some. After 18 h, the cyclone should be over 26-27C sea surface temperatures, with the forecast track taking Dora close to a patch of colder water between 72-96 h. Based on these conditions and the intensity guidance, the new intensity forecast calls for a little more weakening during the first 24 h, followed by little change in strength from 24-72 h. After 72 h, slight weakening is forecast due to the colder water just to the north of the track. The new forecast is near the intensity consensus through 72 h, then lies a little above the consensus. It should be noted, though, that even while weakening Dora is expected to remain a hurricane through the entire 5-day forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 13.8N 128.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 13.6N 130.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 13.5N 134.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 13.3N 137.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 13.1N 141.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 07/0600Z 12.9N 144.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 12.8N 148.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 08/1800Z 12.5N 156.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 09/1800Z 13.0N 164.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 04 2023 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 042035 PWSEP5 HURRICANE DORA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052023 2100 UTC FRI AUG 04 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 10N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 135W 34 X 13(13) 19(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) 15N 135W 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 33(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 10N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) X(13) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 33(37) X(37) X(37) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 10N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 10(18) X(18) 10N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 10N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 16(35) X(35) 15N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) 15N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) 15N 155W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 1(30) 15N 155W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) 15N 155W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BUOY 51002 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 10N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 10N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10N 160W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 28(34) 15N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 15N 160W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10N 165W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 10N 165W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15N 165W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 15N 165W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 15N 165W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN