National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 21 2023 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 212030 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042023 2100 UTC FRI JUL 21 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 124.9W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 124.9W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 124.4W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 16.4N 126.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 17.0N 128.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 17.4N 130.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 17.7N 132.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 124.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY/BROWN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211741
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Jul 21 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Four-E, located a little more than 1000 miles west-
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Four-E are issued under WMO
header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Four-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Brown

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201732
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Jul 20 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central East Pacific (EP95):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula have become a little more organized
this morning. Environmental conditions remain marginally conducive
for further development of this system during the next day or so,
and a short-lived tropical depression could form while it moves
west-northwestward at about 15 mph over the central portion of the
eastern Pacific basin. By Saturday, further development is not
expected as the system moves over cooler waters and encounters
stronger upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Brown

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191747
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Jul 19 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central East Pacific (EP95):
Satellite imagery indicates that an area of low pressure located
several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula has become better defined. Additionally,
the associated shower and thunderstorm activity continues to show
increased signs of organization. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for further development of this system, and a short-lived
tropical depression could form during the next day or two while it
moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph over the central portion of
the eastern Pacific basin. By Saturday, further development is not
expected as the system moves over cooler waters and encounters
stronger upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181740
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Jul 18 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South-Southwest of Southwestern Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest of
the coast of southwestern Mexico. Some slow development of this
system is possible during the next few days as it moves west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central portion of the
eastern Pacific basin. By late Friday, the system is forecast to
move over cooler waters, and further development is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

202
ABPZ20 KNHC 171739
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Jul 17 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of disturbed weather located a few hundred miles south of
the coast of southwestern Mexico is associated with a tropical wave.
Development of this system, if any, should be slow to occur as it
moves generally west-northwestward over the central portion of the
eastern Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 16 Jul 2023 20:39:07 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 16 Jul 2023 21:29:29 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM HST Sun Jul 16 2023 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 162037 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Calvin Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032023 1100 AM HST Sun Jul 16 2023 The satellite presentation of Calvin has not changed much since the last advisory. Satellite images show a partially exposed low-level circulation with a small area of moderate to deep convection near the center. Satellite intensity estimates continue to fall, and a blend of the latest Dvorak final-T and current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB support lowering the intensity to 55 kt. Continued weakening is expected as Calvin moves over 24C SSTs and into a drier, more stable environment during the next couple of days. The cyclone could cease producing organized convection during this time. Although environmental and oceanic conditions remain marginal on its approach to Hawaii, there is still support in GFS, ECMWF, and HAFS model-simulated satellite imagery for some new bursts of convection as Calvin moves closer to the islands. So, the NHC forecast keeps Calvin a tropical cyclone through 72 h, although post-tropical status could occur sooner than forecast. Regardless, the cyclone should still be producing some tropical-storm-force winds in its northern semicircle upon its closest approach to Hawaii, especially given the storm's fast forward motion. There has been no change to the track forecast reasoning. A mid-level ridge over the eastern Pacific is expected to steer Calvin generally westward into the central Pacific basin late tonight or early Monday and toward the Hawaiian Islands on Tuesday. The NHC forecast shows the center of Calvin passing near or over the Big Island of Hawaii early Wednesday, then continuing westward and becoming post-tropical on Thursday before dissipating. The guidance envelope has trended slightly southward this cycle, but little change was required to the NHC forecast as it still lies near the latest HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA) aid. While the exact storm track near Hawaii is still uncertain, there is potential for portions of the state to experience some heavy rainfall, dangerous surf and rip current conditions, and minor wind impacts from Calvin. A Tropical Storm Watch may be required for portions of the main Hawaiian Islands later today. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Calvin is forecast to approach the Hawaiian Islands during the next couple of days or so, bringing the potential for heavy rainfall and dangerous surf and rip current conditions. A Tropical Storm Watch could be issued for portions of the main Hawaiian Islands later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 16.1N 136.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 16.5N 138.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 17.1N 142.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 17.5N 145.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 18/1800Z 18.1N 149.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 19/0600Z 18.7N 153.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 19/1800Z 19.2N 157.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 20/1800Z 20.0N 163.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUL 16 2023 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 162037 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CALVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032023 2100 UTC SUN JUL 16 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CALVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 140W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13) BRADSHAW AAF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 21N 158W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) BUOY 51002 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) JOINT BASE PHH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 20N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) 21N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) BUOY 51003 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 1100 AM HST Sun Jul 16 2023 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 162037 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Calvin Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032023 1100 AM HST Sun Jul 16 2023 ...CALVIN MOVING WESTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 136.3W ABOUT 1260 MI...2025 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Hawaii should monitor the progress of Calvin. A Tropical Storm Watch may be required for portions of the main Hawaiian Islands later today. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Calvin was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 136.3 West. Calvin is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of Calvin will move into the central Pacific basin late tonight or early Monday and approach the Hawaiian Islands on Tuesday and early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional weakening is forecast during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Calvin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/miatcdep3.shtml RAINFALL: Storm total rainfall amounts of 4-6 inches are possible along windward areas of the Big Island of Hawaii on Wednesday and Thursday, with lower amounts (1-3 inches) expected elsewhere in the state. This rainfall could lead to localized flash flooding and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Calvin are expected to begin reaching the Hawaiian Islands during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...CALVIN MOVING WESTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN... As of 11:00 AM HST Sun Jul 16 the center of Calvin was located near 16.1, -136.3 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUL 16 2023 950 WTPZ23 KNHC 162036 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032023 2100 UTC SUN JUL 16 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 136.3W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 90SE 90SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 136.3W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 135.5W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.5N 138.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.1N 142.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 17.5N 145.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 18.1N 149.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.7N 153.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 19.2N 157.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 20.0N 163.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 136.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

175
ABPZ20 KNHC 161726
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Jul 16 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Storm Calvin, located more than 1300 miles east
of Hilo, Hawaii.

South of Southwestern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form well to the south or
southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next
several days. Development of this system appears unlikely as it
moves generally west-northwestward over the central portion of the
eastern Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 15 Jul 2023 20:35:27 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 15 Jul 2023 21:28:58 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM HST Sat Jul 15 2023 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 152033 TCDEP3 Hurricane Calvin Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032023 1100 AM HST Sat Jul 15 2023 The satellite appearance of Calvin has shown some ill effects today from cooler SSTs and some drier air in its surrounding environment. A 1512 UTC SSMIS 89 GHz passive microwave image of the hurricane showed the eyewall was open to the east, where a dry slot was noted earlier wrapping around that portion of the circulation. Since then, the eye has become a bit warmer and more pronounced in infrared satellite imagery, and some deeper inner-core convection has wrapped around the center. The latest objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates range from 77-90 kt. Based on a blend of these data and recent satellite trends, the initial intensity is held at 85 kt for this advisory. Weakening is expected during the next few days as the cyclone moves into a drier and more stable air mass over sub-26C SSTs. In fact, model-simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF suggest Calvin could lose most, or briefly all, of its convection once it enters the central Pacific basin. However, the underlying SSTs become slightly warmer between 48-96 h while the deep-layer shear diagnosed by the global models is low to moderate. Therefore, it seems that Calvin could regenerate new bursts of convection on its approach to Hawaii, which is shown by the global and hurricane models. Therefore, the NHC forecast keeps Calvin a tropical cyclone through 96 h. Regardless of its status, the cyclone appears likely to maintain some tropical-storm-force winds in the northern portion of its circulation as it approaches Hawaii. The global model fields suggest the system will be close to opening into a trough by or shortly after day 5. The long-term motion of Calvin is westward at 280/14 kt. A westward to west-northwestward motion will continue through the forecast period as the cyclone is steered by a mid-level ridge entrenched over the eastern Pacific. Calvin is forecast to cross 140W and enter the central Pacific basin on Monday morning and approach the Hawaiian Islands on Tuesday into early Wednesday. The various track models continue to bring Calvin near or over the Big Island of Hawaii, but exactly where it will track relative to the island is still unclear given the cross-track spread noted at day 3 and beyond. The updated NHC forecast has been adjusted slightly faster than the previous one, but otherwise very little change was made. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Calvin is forecast to move across the central Pacific Ocean and approach the Hawaiian Islands early next week. It is too early to determine the exact location and magnitude of potential impacts given uncertainties in the track, intensity, and structure of Calvin as it approaches the islands. Interests in Hawaii should closely monitor the latest forecast updates. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 15.0N 130.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 15.6N 132.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 16.3N 135.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 16.8N 139.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 17.3N 142.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 18/0600Z 17.7N 146.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 18/1800Z 18.3N 149.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 19/1800Z 19.4N 156.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 20/1800Z 20.5N 164.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 15 2023 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 152033 PWSEP3 HURRICANE CALVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032023 2100 UTC SAT JUL 15 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CALVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 130W 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 130W 64 97 X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) 15N 135W 34 3 55(58) 1(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) 15N 135W 50 1 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 135W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 135W 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 140W 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 6(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13) X(13) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) X(12) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 21N 158W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) BUOY 51002 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) JOINT BASE PHH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 20N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BUOY 51003 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 1100 AM HST Sat Jul 15 2023 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 152033 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Calvin Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032023 1100 AM HST Sat Jul 15 2023 ...CALVIN MOVING WESTWARD OVER OPEN WATERS... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN EARLY MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.0N 130.4W ABOUT 1445 MI...2325 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 1660 MI...2670 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Hawaii should monitor the progress of Calvin. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Calvin was located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 130.4 West. Calvin is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion at a similar or slightly faster forward speed is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast through early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Calvin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/miatcdep3.shtml SURF: Swells generated by Calvin are expected to begin reaching the Hawaiian Islands early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...CALVIN MOVING WESTWARD OVER OPEN WATERS... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN EARLY MONDAY... As of 11:00 AM HST Sat Jul 15 the center of Calvin was located near 15.0, -130.4 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 975 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 15 2023 665 WTPZ23 KNHC 152032 TCMEP3 HURRICANE CALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032023 2100 UTC SAT JUL 15 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 130.4W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 130.4W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 129.7W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.6N 132.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.3N 135.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.8N 139.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.3N 142.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 17.7N 146.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 18.3N 149.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 19.4N 156.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 20.5N 164.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 130.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

611
ABPZ20 KNHC 151722
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Jul 15 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Calvin, located more than 1300 miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form well south of the coast of
southwestern Mexico during the next several days. Some gradual
development of this system is possible thereafter as it moves
generally west-northwestward over the central portion of the eastern
Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart