National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

...CARLOTTA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... ...COULD BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Mon Aug 5 the center of Carlotta was located near 20.2, -126.5 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 050550
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Aug 4 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Carlotta, on Tropical Storm Daniel, and on recently formed
Tropical Storm Emilia, all located well offshore of the coast of
Mexico.

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP96):
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to show signs of
organization in association with an area of low pressure located a
few hundred miles south of southwestern Mexico. Environmental
conditions remain conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form within the next day or so while the
system moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining
well offshore of the coast of Mexico. For more information on this
system, including Gale Warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Emilia are issued under
WMO header WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Emilia are issued under
WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Bucci

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 05 Aug 2024 02:54:20 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 05 Aug 2024 03:40:46 GMT

Issued at 800 PM MST Sun Aug 04 2024 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 050253 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024 800 PM MST Sun Aug 04 2024 The organization of the tropical cyclone has improved on satellite imagery since the previous advisory. The subjective CI numbers from TAFB and SAB are both T-2.5/35 kt, and the CIMSS objective intensity estimates range from 33 to 35 kt. Earlier ASCAT data from around 17 UTC had peak wind vectors of 31 kt, and the organization on satellite imagery has certainty improved since that time, with the cyclone becoming more compact. Based on the Dvorak estimates, the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Emilia with an initial intensity of 35 kt. The track forecast for Emilia is very dependent on a disturbance to the east of the system (Invest 96E), which has a high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next day or so. Most of the global models show both systems interacting with and rotating cyclonically around each other. Emilia should move to the south-southwest for the next 24 h, while it is located to the west of 96E. After that time, the larger circulation of 96E should pull the smaller Emilia toward the northwest or north-northwest. Only minor changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast. 96E and Emilia should merge together into one cyclone over the next couple of days, but it is uncertain which cyclone will be dominant and which cyclone will be absorbed. This forecast assumes that 96E will absorb Emilia, with Emilia dissipating beyond 48 h. However, it is quite possible that the opposite occurs, with Emilia absorbing 96E. Either way, I expect a tropical cyclone (the merged system) to be moving west-northwestward in 3 to 4 days, spreading tropical storm conditions across the open waters of the Pacific. The ECMWF model shows the two systems merging in 36-48 h, but the latest GFS model predicts a longer binary interaction, with the merger occurring in 3 to 4 days. Until the disturbance to the east starts to interact with Emilia, the environment appears favorable for intensification, and the intensity guidance has trended upward this cycle. The new NHC forecast shows Emilia strengthening to a 55 kt tropical storm in 36 h. This is near, or slightly below the middle of the intensity guidance envelope. The thinking is that Emilia will merge with 96E after that time, and 96E will likely be a tropical storm at the time of the merger. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 15.0N 113.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 14.2N 113.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 13.8N 113.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 14.3N 113.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 15.6N 114.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen/Roberts

Issued at 800 PM MST Sun Aug 04 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 050252 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Emilia Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024 800 PM MST Sun Aug 04 2024 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM EMILIA... SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.0N 113.2W ABOUT 585 MI...945 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 200 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Emilia was located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 113.2 West. Emilia is moving toward the south-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Monday. A sharp turn towards the northwest or north-northwest is expected by early Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two. The cyclone will then begin to interact with a large disturbance approaching from the east, which is expected to cause this system to dissipate or merge with the large disturbance in a few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Roberts

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM EMILIA... As of 8:00 PM MST Sun Aug 4 the center of Emilia was located near 15.0, -113.2 with movement SSW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 050252 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024 0300 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 10N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 115W 34 8 13(21) 24(45) 22(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/ROBERTS

Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 050252 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024 0300 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 113.2W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR 200 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 113.2W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 113.1W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 14.2N 113.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 13.8N 113.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 14.3N 113.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 15.6N 114.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 113.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/ROBERTS

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 05 Aug 2024 02:38:08 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 05 Aug 2024 03:34:56 GMT

Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 050236 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Daniel Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042024 800 PM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Daniel's cloud pattern this evening is characterized by a few intermittently bursting deep convective clusters surrounding the poorly defined and elongated surface circulation. The satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB remained unchanged, and the initial intensity is held at 35 kt. Warm oceanic surface temperatures and a modest wind shear environment should allow for some slight strengthening through Monday. While the cyclone moves in a counter-clockwise motion around the eastern periphery of more prominent Carlotta, increasing dry air entrainment is expected to induce a weakening trend through the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast shows Daniel becoming a remnant low on Tuesday and dissipating on Wednesday. The cyclone's initial motion is estimated to be northeastward, 050/8 kt, and this general motion within the low to mid-level southwesterly monsoonal flow should continue through Monday. Afterward, global models agree that Daniel will move into the eastern periphery of Carlotta's cyclonic flow, resulting in a turn north and northwestward before it degenerates into an open trough on Thursday, or sooner. The official forecast track follows suit and is similar to the previous advisory and the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 14.2N 129.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 15.1N 128.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 16.6N 127.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 18.0N 127.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 19.1N 128.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 07/1200Z 19.9N 130.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts

Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 050236 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM DANIEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042024 0300 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANIEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 15 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 050236 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Daniel Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042024 800 PM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024 ...POORLY ORGANIZED DANIEL MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 129.9W ABOUT 1440 MI...2315 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Daniel was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 129.9 West. Daniel is moving toward the northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is forecast to continue through Monday, followed by a turn toward the north and northwest on Monday night and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Small intensity fluctuations are possible during the next couple of days. Daniel is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts

...POORLY ORGANIZED DANIEL MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sun Aug 4 the center of Daniel was located near 14.2, -129.9 with movement NE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 050235 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042024 0300 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 129.9W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 75SE 60SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 129.9W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 130.3W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 15.1N 128.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 60SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.6N 127.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 60SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.0N 127.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.1N 128.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.9N 130.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 129.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 05 Aug 2024 02:35:17 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 05 Aug 2024 03:29:08 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 042 FOPZ13 KNHC 050233 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024 0300 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 125W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 130W 34 X 5( 5) 8(13) 3(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024 053 WTPZ43 KNHC 050233 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 800 PM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Conventional satellite imagery shows only a few fragments of deep convection remaining this evening, just to the northeast of the surface circulation center. Consequently, the cyclone is too weak to classify based on the Dvorak satellite intensity technique. The initial intensity is based on a blend of the UW-CIMSS objective current intensity guidance, which yields 45 kt. Carlotta's initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 285/8 kt, and should continue moving in this trajectory with some increase in forward speed during the next day or so. Afterward, the cyclone is expected to slow down a bit while turning west-southwestward on Tuesday as it weakens further and becomes a post-tropical remnant low. Dissipation is forecast to occur in 60 hours, or possibly sooner, while the remnant low moves over cooler water and through a dry/stable air mass. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 20.1N 125.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 20.3N 126.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 20.5N 128.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 20.5N 129.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/0000Z 20.2N 131.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts

Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 050233 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Carlotta Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 800 PM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024 ...CARLOTTA GRADUALLY SPINNING DOWN... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.1N 125.7W ABOUT 1035 MI...1660 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlotta was located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 125.7 West. Carlotta is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected during the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is forecast and Carlotta is expected to become a remnant low on Tuesday, and dissipate by the end of the week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts

...CARLOTTA GRADUALLY SPINNING DOWN... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sun Aug 4 the center of Carlotta was located near 20.1, -125.7 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 050232 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024 0300 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 125.7W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..105NE 60SE 105SW 105NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 125.7W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 125.3W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.3N 126.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 20.5N 128.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 20.5N 129.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 20.2N 131.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 125.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS