National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 04 2023 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 042034 TCMEP5 HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052023 2100 UTC FRI AUG 04 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 128.5W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 128.5W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 127.7W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 13.6N 130.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 13.5N 134.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 13.3N 137.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 13.1N 141.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 12.9N 144.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 12.8N 148.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 12.5N 156.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 13.0N 164.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 128.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 1100 AM HST Fri Aug 04 2023 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 042034 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dora Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023 1100 AM HST Fri Aug 04 2023 ...DORA WEAKENS SOME MORE AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.8N 128.5W ABOUT 1370 MI...2205 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 1835 MI...2955 KM E OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dora was located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 128.5 West. Dora is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are now near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional weakening is forecast through Saturday, with little change in strength expected on Sunday and Monday. Dora remains a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Beven

...DORA WEAKENS SOME MORE AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC... As of 11:00 AM HST Fri Aug 4 the center of Dora was located near 13.8, -128.5 with movement W at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 964 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 041727
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Aug 4 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Dora, located over a thousand miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

Off the coast of Southwestern Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located about 250 miles south-southeast of Manzanillo,
Mexico, have become better organized over the past several hours.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development
and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or
so as it moves west-northwestward or northwestward, parallel to but
not far offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Interests
along the southwestern coast of Mexico and the southern portion of
the Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of this
system during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Aug 2023 20:40:11 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Aug 2023 21:23:03 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM HST Thu Aug 03 2023 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 032038 TCDEP5 Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023 1100 AM HST Thu Aug 03 2023 Microwave satellite data received between 12-14Z suggests that Dora has been undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. In addition, the eye has been becoming more distinct during the past hour or two, although it is not much larger than the pinhole eye seen last night. Based on the satellite intensity estimates and the apparent eyewall replacement, the initial intensity is set at 105 kt. The initial motion remains 265/16 kt. As mentioned before, a well-established low- to mid-level ridge north of Dora is expected to maintain this general motion for the next several days. The track guidance, while tightly clustered, has shifted a little to the south from the previous advisory, and the forecast track is also nudged southward. The new forecast track is close to the various consensus models. The latest shear estimates and forecasts suggest the expected increase in easterly shear has not yet occurred. Based on this, there is probably a 6-12 h window for Dora to re-intensify as the eyewall replacement cycle ends, and the new intensity forecast shows modest intensification during that time. After 12 h, increased shear and slowly decreasing sea surface temperatures along the forecast track should cause weakening through 48 h. After 48 h, the shear is forecast to decrease while Dora is over water temperatures of 26-27C. The intensity guidance during this time shows a more gradual weakening than during the 12-48 h period, and this part of the intensity forecast follows the overall trend of the guidance. While the wind field of Dora may expand slightly due to the eyewall replacement, it is expected to remain a compact system that could be more prone than normal to rapid intensity fluctuations. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 14.4N 121.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 14.1N 124.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 13.8N 127.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 13.5N 130.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 13.3N 133.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 06/0600Z 13.0N 136.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 12.8N 140.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 12.5N 148.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 08/1800Z 12.5N 155.5W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 03 2023 490 FOPZ15 KNHC 032037 PWSEP5 HURRICANE DORA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052023 2100 UTC THU AUG 03 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 26 30(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) 15N 125W 50 2 9(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 15N 125W 64 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 10N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 48(50) 2(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) X(11) X(11) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 21(45) X(45) X(45) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) X(12) X(12) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 3(17) X(17) 10N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 10N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) 2(37) X(37) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 10N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) X(19) 10N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) 10N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 29(31) 1(32) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) 10N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 13(22) 10N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 10N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 18(33) 15N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 15N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 15N 155W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 15N 155W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 15N 155W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BUOY 51002 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 1100 AM HST Thu Aug 03 2023 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 032037 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dora Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023 1100 AM HST Thu Aug 03 2023 ...DORA A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT MOVES WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.4N 121.8W ABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dora was located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 121.8 West. Dora is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Dora is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is possible tonight. However, weakening is expected on Friday and Saturday. Dora is a small tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds extending outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Beven

...DORA A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT MOVES WESTWARD... As of 11:00 AM HST Thu Aug 3 the center of Dora was located near 14.4, -121.8 with movement W at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 958 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 03 2023 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 032036 TCMEP5 HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052023 2100 UTC THU AUG 03 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 121.8W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 75SE 75SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 121.8W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 121.0W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.1N 124.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 13.8N 127.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 13.5N 130.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 13.3N 133.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 13.0N 136.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 12.8N 140.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 12.5N 148.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 12.5N 155.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 121.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031742
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Aug 3 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Dora, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California Peninsula.

Off the coast of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located
several hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico is
associated with a tropical wave. An area of low pressure is expected
to develop from this feature during the next day or so, and
environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this
system. A tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend as
it moves west-northwestward or northwestward, parallel to but not
far offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Issued at 1100 AM HST Wed Aug 02 2023 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 022051 TCDEP5 Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023 1100 AM HST Wed Aug 02 2023 After the last advisory, we received a couple of late arriving microwave passes, first from GPM at 1339 UTC, and then F-17 SSMIS at 1426 UTC. Both passes suggested that the inner core structure of Dora could be rearranging some with concentric bands embedded in the central dense overcast. On geostationary satellite, a tiny eye signature keeps coming and going, more recently trying to become better defined again as the surrounding cloud top temperatures have cooled. Subjective intensity estimates of Dora were both 90 kt from TAFB and SAB at 1800 UTC. Since that time, the eye has become more distinct again, so the intensity is nudged upward to 95 kt for this advisory. A helpful Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) pass received this morning showed that Dora remains a very small hurricane, with hurricane force winds only extending out 15 n mi from the center with a tiny 5 n mi radius of maximum wind. Dora's motion is essentially unchanged from this morning, still just south of due west at 260/14 kt. A deep-layer ridge located to the north of the hurricane is forecast to move with it, resulting in a continued south of due west track through the entire forecast period. The latest track guidance remains tightly clustered near the previous forecast track, and only slight adjustments were made for this advisory, blending the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids. While Dora appears to have paused its intensification this afternoon, it might just be a short-term fluctuation, as the latest few 1-min GOES-18 infrared images over Dora show the eye trying to clear out again. While SHIPS-RII has decreased some, especially compared to yesterday, DTOPS still indicates a 64 to 67 percent chance of a 25-kt increase in intensity over the next 24 hours. So the latest NHC intensity forecast will continue to show a 115 kt peak intensity over the next day, higher than the consensus aids, but still lower than both the HAFS-A/B runs. Thereafter, sea-surface temperatures begin to markedly decrease under the hurricane as easterly vertical wind shear is forecast to increase some. The models respond to this less favorable environment by showing weakening between 36-72 hours, and the latest official forecast also shows this scenario. As mentioned previously, Dora's small size could make it susceptible to rapid intensity changes, both up or down, and the intensity forecast is of much lower confidence than the track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 15.4N 115.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 15.2N 117.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 14.9N 120.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 14.5N 123.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 14.1N 127.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 05/0600Z 13.7N 130.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 13.3N 133.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 12.6N 139.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 07/1800Z 12.5N 146.9W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 1100 AM HST Wed Aug 02 2023 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 022051 TCDEP5 Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023 1100 AM HST Wed Aug 02 2023 After the last advisory, we received a couple of late arriving microwave passes, first from GPM at 1339 UTC, and then F-17 SSMIS at 1426 UTC. Both passes suggested that the inner core structure of Dora could be rearranging some with concentric bands embedded in the central dense overcast. On geostationary satellite, a tiny eye signature keeps coming and going, more recently trying to become better defined again as the surrounding cloud top temperatures have cooled. Subjective intensity estimates of Dora were both 90 kt from TAFB and SAB at 1800 UTC. Since that time, the eye has become more distinct again, so the intensity is nudged upward to 95 kt for this advisory. A helpful Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) pass received this morning showed that Dora remains a very small hurricane, with hurricane force winds only extending out 15 n mi from the center with a tiny 5 n mi radius of maximum wind. Dora's motion is essentially unchanged from this morning, still just south of due west at 260/14 kt. A deep-layer ridge located to the north of the hurricane is forecast to move with it, resulting in a continued south of due west track through the entire forecast period. The latest track guidance remains tightly clustered near the previous forecast track, and only slight adjustments were made for this advisory, blending the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids. While Dora appears to have paused its intensification this afternoon, it might just be a short-term fluctuation, as the latest few 1-min GOES-18 infrared images over Dora show the eye trying to clear out again. While SHIPS-RII has decreased some, especially compared to yesterday, DTOPS still indicates a 64 to 67 percent chance of a 25-kt increase in intensity over the next 24 hours. So the latest NHC intensity forecast will continue to show a 115 kt peak intensity over the next day, higher than the consensus aids, but still lower than both the HAFS-A/B runs. Thereafter, sea-surface temperatures begin to markedly decrease under the hurricane as easterly vertical wind shear is forecast to increase some. The models respond to this less favorable environment by showing weakening between 36-72 hours, and the latest official forecast also shows this scenario. As mentioned previously, Dora's small size could make it susceptible to rapid intensity changes, both up or down, and the intensity forecast is of much lower confidence than the track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 15.4N 115.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 15.2N 117.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 14.9N 120.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 14.5N 123.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 14.1N 127.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 05/0600Z 13.7N 130.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 13.3N 133.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 12.6N 139.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 07/1800Z 12.5N 146.9W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Aug 2023 20:50:39 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Aug 2023 21:32:09 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Aug 2023 20:50:39 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Aug 2023 21:32:09 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 02 2023 485 FOPZ15 KNHC 022049 PWSEP5 HURRICANE DORA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052023 2100 UTC WED AUG 02 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 1 96(97) 1(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) 15N 120W 50 X 87(87) 1(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) 15N 120W 64 X 69(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) 10N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 60(61) 29(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) 22(22) 41(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) 6( 6) 31(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) 10N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 57(68) 1(69) X(69) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) X(31) X(31) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) X(15) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 20(45) 1(46) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) X(15) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 4(20) 10N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 10N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 6(34) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 10N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 10N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 29(31) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 02 2023 485 FOPZ15 KNHC 022049 PWSEP5 HURRICANE DORA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052023 2100 UTC WED AUG 02 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 1 96(97) 1(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) 15N 120W 50 X 87(87) 1(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) 15N 120W 64 X 69(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) 10N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 60(61) 29(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) 22(22) 41(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) 6( 6) 31(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) 10N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 57(68) 1(69) X(69) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) X(31) X(31) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) X(15) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 20(45) 1(46) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) X(15) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 4(20) 10N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 10N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 6(34) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 10N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 10N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 29(31) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 1100 AM HST Wed Aug 02 2023 407 WTPZ35 KNHC 022048 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dora Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023 1100 AM HST Wed Aug 02 2023 ...TINY DORA A LITTLE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.4N 115.6W ABOUT 635 MI...1025 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dora was located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 115.6 West. Dora is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a westward to west-southwestward motion is expected to continue over the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Dora is forecast to become a major hurricane overnight, but gradual weakening is forecast to begin by Friday. Dora is a small tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds only extending outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Papin

...TINY DORA A LITTLE STRONGER... As of 11:00 AM HST Wed Aug 2 the center of Dora was located near 15.4, -115.6 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 974 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 02 2023 642 WTPZ25 KNHC 022047 TCMEP5 HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052023 2100 UTC WED AUG 02 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 115.6W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 45SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 115.6W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 114.9W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.2N 117.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.9N 120.7W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.5N 123.9W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 14.1N 127.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 13.7N 130.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 13.3N 133.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 12.6N 139.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 12.5N 146.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 115.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN