National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 200 PM MST Mon Aug 05 2024 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 052038 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024 200 PM MST Mon Aug 05 2024 Satellite imagery shows that Emilia remains a sheared cyclone this afternoon, with the low-level center still located near the northeastern edge of a large convective mass with cloud tops to near -80C. A recent ASCAT overpass showed winds of 40+ kt in the southern semicircle, while the various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates remain in the 35-40 kt range. Based on the scatterometer data, the initial intensity is increased to 45 kt. The initial wind radii were adjusted based on the ASCAT data. The latest global model runs continue to forecast that Emilia will be the survivor in its interaction with the Tropical Storm Fabio to the east, and the intensity forecast is based on this scenario and the expectation of continued moderate easterly shear. The forecast follows the trend of the intensity guidance and now forecasts a peak intensity of 55 kt in 36 h. After that time, although the shear is forecast to decrease, Emilia is expected to slowly weaken as it moves over decreasing sea surface temperatures. The new forecast is again an update of the previous forecast. Confidence in this forecast is increasing due to the more consistent model guidance that Emilia will absorb Fabio and not the other way around. The interaction with Fabio should steer Emilia southward for the next 12 h or so. After that, a turn toward the northwest or north-northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected as Emilia starts to absorb Fabio. After Fabio dissipates in about 48 h, Emilia should generally move west-northwestward on the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge to the north, with this general motion expected for the remainder of the forecast period. The new forecast track has only minor changes from the previous track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 13.6N 114.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 13.3N 114.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 14.3N 114.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 16.5N 115.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 18.7N 117.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 08/0600Z 19.8N 120.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 20.6N 123.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 09/1800Z 22.0N 127.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 10/1800Z 23.5N 133.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 052037 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024 2100 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) 7(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 115W 34 7 36(43) 35(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) 15N 115W 50 X 5( 5) 27(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 44(55) X(55) X(55) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) X(19) X(19) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) X(12) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 052037 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024 2100 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 114.0W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 180 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 80SE 80SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 120SE 90SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 114.0W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 114.0W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 13.3N 114.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 14.3N 114.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.5N 115.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 18.7N 117.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 19.8N 120.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 20.6N 123.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 22.0N 127.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 23.5N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 114.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

...EMILIA DRIFTING SOUTHWARD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH TROPICAL STORM FABIO... As of 2:00 PM MST Mon Aug 5 the center of Emilia was located near 13.6, -114.0 with movement S at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 200 PM MST Mon Aug 05 2024 884 WTPZ35 KNHC 052037 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Emilia Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024 200 PM MST Mon Aug 05 2024 ...EMILIA DRIFTING SOUTHWARD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH TROPICAL STORM FABIO... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.6N 114.0W ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Emilia was located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 114.0 West. Emilia is moving toward the south near 2 mph (4 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through this evening. A sharp turn toward the northwest or north-northwest is expected by early Tuesday, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest at a faster forward speed on Wednesday. Recent satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 052035 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024 ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 2100 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 127.8W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 45SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 127.8W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 127.4W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 20.7N 128.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 20.4N 130.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.9N 131.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 19.3N 132.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 127.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KODAMA

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 05 Aug 2024 20:34:37 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 05 Aug 2024 21:29:17 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 05 Aug 2024 20:34:03 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 05 Aug 2024 21:41:14 GMT

Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Aug 05 2024 873 WTPZ44 KNHC 052033 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Daniel Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042024 200 PM PDT Mon Aug 05 2024 A recent ASCAT-B pass over Daniel this afternoon revealed that Daniel barely has a closed circulation and its maximum winds have decreased to 30 kt, making Daniel a tropical depression. Daniel's convective organization is also lacking, but it has produced persistent deep convection over its center for the past several hours. Little change was made to the NHC forecast. Daniel should weaken and wrap cyclonically around the larger and more robust circulation of Carlotta during the next couple of days. Global models indicate that Daniel could open into a trough at any time, Even if it maintains its circulation, its unlikely to maintain its organized deep convection beyond tonight. Therefore the largest change in the NHC forecast is to show Daniel becoming a remnant low tonight or early tomorrow and dissipating soon after that. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 16.2N 126.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 17.3N 125.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 18.4N 126.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/0600Z 19.4N 127.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Camposano

Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 052033 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANIEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042024 2100 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANIEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 052032 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042024 2100 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 126.9W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 60SE 45SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 126.9W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 127.2W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 17.3N 125.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.4N 126.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.4N 127.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 126.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Aug 05 2024 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 052032 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Daniel Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042024 200 PM PDT Mon Aug 05 2024 ...DANIEL BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 126.9W ABOUT 1200 MI...1930 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Daniel was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 126.9 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue today. Daniel is forecast to turn toward the northwest by tomorrow. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Daniel is forecast to weaken further and become a remnant low by tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Camposano

...DANIEL BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 2:00 PM PDT Mon Aug 5 the center of Daniel was located near 16.2, -126.9 with movement NE at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 052032 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM FABIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062024 2100 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FABIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLA CLARION 34 X 18(18) 26(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) ISLA CLARION 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 200 PM MST Mon Aug 05 2024 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 052032 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fabio Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062024 200 PM MST Mon Aug 05 2024 ...FABIO MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.6N 108.1W ABOUT 345 MI...550 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fabio was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 108.1 West. Fabio is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with a faster forward speed through tonight. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected on Tuesday, followed by a turn toward the west on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected this afternoon and tonight. After that, Fabio is expected to weaken, and the system is expected to be absorbed by Tropical Storm Emilia Wednesday or Wednesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Beven

...FABIO MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA... As of 2:00 PM MST Mon Aug 5 the center of Fabio was located near 15.6, -108.1 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 052032 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM FABIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062024 2100 UTC MON AUG 05 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 108.1W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 0 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 108.1W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 107.3W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 16.9N 110.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.9N 113.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 18.2N 116.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 108.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 051751
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Aug 5 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Carlotta, on Tropical Storm Daniel, on Tropical Storm
Emilia, and on newly formed Tropical Storm Fabio, all located well
offshore of the coast of Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Fabio are issued under
WMO header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Fabio are issued under
WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Camposano

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 05 Aug 2024 14:59:40 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 05 Aug 2024 15:39:51 GMT

Issued at 800 AM MST Mon Aug 05 2024 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 051458 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024 800 AM MST Mon Aug 05 2024 Satellite imagery shows that Emilia remains a sheared cyclone this morning, with the low-level center located near the northeastern edge of a large convective mass with cloud tops to near -85C. The various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have nudged upward to the 35-40 kt range, and the initial intensity is set at 40 kt. The latest global model runs continue to suggest that Emilia will be the survivor in interaction with the newly formed Tropical Storm Fabio to the east, and the intensity forecast is based on this scenario and the expectation of continued moderate easterly shear. The forecast follows the trend of the intensity guidance and forecasts a peak intensity of 60 kt in 48 h. After that time, Emilia is expected to slowly weaken as it moves over decreasing sea surface temperatures. The new forecast is basically an update of the previous forecast. It should be noted that this forecast is low confidence due to the possibility that Fabio might still end up as the dominant cyclone. Interaction with Fabio should steer Emilia south-southwestward to southward for the next 12 h or so. After that, a turn toward the northwest or north-northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected as Emilia start to absorb Fabio. After Fabio dissipates in about 60 h, Emilia should generally move west-northwestward on the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge to the north. The first 96 h of the forecast track have been adjusted somewhat based on the GFS and Canadian model forecasts of the interaction between Emilia and Fabio. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 14.5N 114.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 13.9N 114.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 14.4N 114.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 15.9N 115.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 18.2N 117.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 08/0000Z 19.6N 119.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 20.8N 122.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 09/1200Z 22.5N 127.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 10/1200Z 23.5N 132.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven