National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301751
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Jul 30 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP96):
Showers and thunderstorms have become a little better organized in
association with an area of low pressure located to the south of the
southern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear to be
favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form early this week while the system moves
west-northwestward at near 15 mph, roughly parallel to the coasts of
southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Southwest of southern Baja California:
A small area of low pressure located about 1100 miles southwest of
the southern tip of Baja California is producing a few showers and
thunderstorms. Significant development of this system is unlikely
while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph over the next couple of
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 291727
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Jul 29 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A tropical wave located south of the coast of Guatemala is producing
a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development, and
a tropical depression will likely form early next week while the
system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, roughly parallel to
the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 281742
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Jul 28 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A tropical wave located near the eastern coast of Central America is
producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. The system is
forecast to move across Central America and over the eastern Pacific
during the next day or so, and an area of low pressure is expected
to form off the coast of southern Mexico later this weekend.
Thereafter, gradual development of this system is forecast and a
tropical depression will likely form while it moves generally
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, roughly parallel to the coasts
of southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 271736
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Jul 27 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form off the coast of southern Mexico
over the weekend to early next week. Thereafter, some gradual
development of this system is possible and a tropical depression
could form while it moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph, roughly parallel to the coasts of southern and southwestern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 261735
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Jul 26 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form off the coast of southern Mexico
over the weekend to early next week. Thereafter, some gradual
development of this system is possible while it moves generally
west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the coasts of southern and
southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 251737
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Jul 25 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241714
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Jul 24 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Pasch

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 231704
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Jul 23 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Pasch

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221722
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Jul 22 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Four-E, located well west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 22 Jul 2023 14:35:51 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 22 Jul 2023 15:29:31 GMT

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Jul 22 2023 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 221435 TCDEP4 Post-Tropical Cyclone Four-E Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042023 800 AM PDT Sat Jul 22 2023 The depression has been devoid of deep convection near its center since yesterday as it continues to deal with strong west-southwesterly shear, and drier mid-level air. What little convection remains is well displaced from the center. The Dvorak satellite estimate from TAFB was that the system is too weak to classify. Given the satellite trends, the depression has degenerated into a remnant low with an intensity set at 25 kt. The remnant low is moving west-northwestward at 11 kt. This general motion should continue due to the steering flow from a low- to mid-level ridge to the north and northwest of the system. Gradual weakening will continue over the next 24 hours, before the system opens up into a trough tomorrow. This is the final NHC advisory for this system. For additional information on the remnant low, please see the High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 17.0N 129.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 23/0000Z 17.4N 131.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 23/1200Z 17.6N 133.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly/Brown

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 22 2023 378 FOPZ14 KNHC 221434 PWSEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042023 1500 UTC SAT JUL 22 2023 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KELLY/BROWN

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 22 2023 260 WTPZ24 KNHC 221434 TCMEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042023 1500 UTC SAT JUL 22 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 129.4W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 129.4W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 128.9W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 17.4N 131.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.6N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 129.4W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER KELLY/BROWN

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Jul 22 2023 259 WTPZ34 KNHC 221434 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Four-E Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042023 800 AM PDT Sat Jul 22 2023 ...DEPRESSION WEAKENS INTO A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY FOR THIS SYSTEM... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 129.4W ABOUT 1330 MI...2135 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Four-E was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 129.4 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The remnant low is expected to continue weakening and open up into a trough tomorrow. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Kelly/Brown

...DEPRESSION WEAKENS INTO A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY FOR THIS SYSTEM... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sat Jul 22 the center of Four-E was located near 17.0, -129.4 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 21 Jul 2023 20:32:28 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 21 Jul 2023 21:29:14 GMT

Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Jul 21 2023 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 212031 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042023 200 PM PDT Fri Jul 21 2023 Tropical Depression Four is currently struggling to produce deep convection within a highly sheared environment. Convection has waned since this morning, with cloud tops continuing to warm this afternoon. The low-level center has also become more exposed with remaining convection to the east of the center. Subjective and objective Dvorak satellite estimates from TAFB, SAB, and CIMMS ADT and AiDT range from 25 to 35 knots. Given the current structure, a blend of satellite estimates and recent visible satellite trends yields an initial intensity of 30 kt for this advisory. The depression continues to be in an environment of strong upper-level westerly wind shear. The system has crossed into cooler sea surface temperatures as well, with SSTs continuing to cool along the forecast track. Given these parameters it is likely the depression will gradually weaken, becoming a remnant low by tomorrow, and dissipating by 60 hours. The system is moving west-northwestward at 12 kt. A ridge centered over the southwestern United States should continue to steer the depression on this general heading and speed for the next 24 hours. Afterward, the shallow remnant low is expected to turn more westward in the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast lies near the previous forecast track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 15.8N 124.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 16.4N 126.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 17.0N 128.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 23/0600Z 17.4N 130.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 23/1800Z 17.7N 132.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly/Brown

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 21 2023 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 212031 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042023 2100 UTC FRI JUL 21 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KELLY/BROWN

Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Jul 21 2023 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 212031 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Four-E Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042023 200 PM PDT Fri Jul 21 2023 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 124.9W ABOUT 1090 MI...1760 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four-E was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 124.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours, becoming more westward as the depression weakens into a remnant low. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 12 hours, followed by gradual weakening. The system is expected to become a remnant low by tomorrow. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Kelly/Brown

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON... As of 2:00 PM PDT Fri Jul 21 the center of Four-E was located near 15.8, -124.9 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.