National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

...DANIEL STILL DRIFTING OVER OPEN WATERS... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sun Aug 4 the center of Daniel was located near 12.5, -130.6 with movement N at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 040846 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042024 0900 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 130.6W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 60SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 130.6W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 130.6W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 13.3N 129.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 70SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 14.4N 128.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 70SE 50SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 15.8N 127.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 60SE 50SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 16.9N 126.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.8N 126.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 18.7N 127.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 130.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 08:43:03 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 09:29:07 GMT

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 040842 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Carlotta has continued to weaken overnight. Central deep convection has collapsed, and the low-level center appears to be at least partially exposed in proxy-visible satellite images. As a result, the satellite-based intensity estimates have decreased. The initial intensity is lowered to 60 kt for this advisory, which makes Carlotta a tropical storm. The storm is expected to move over progressively cooler SSTs over the next few days while encountering stronger deep-layer shear in a drier, more stable environment. Therefore, steady weakening is forecast, and Carlotta is likely to lose organized convection and become a post-tropical remnant low on Tuesday. After that, the shallow cyclone should spin down and dissipate around midweek. Carlotta continues to move west-northwestward at around 10 kt while being steered by a deep-layer ridge centered to its north and east. This general motion is expected to continue during the next day or two. As the system weakens, the shallow vortex should move westward within the low-level steering currents. There are no significant changes to the latest NHC track prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 19.9N 123.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 20.2N 124.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 20.7N 126.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 21.2N 127.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 21.5N 129.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 06/1800Z 21.6N 130.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/0600Z 21.7N 132.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 206 FOPZ13 KNHC 040841 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024 0900 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 125W 34 64 18(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) 20N 125W 50 10 19(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) 20N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 040841 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Carlotta Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024 ...CARLOTTA NOW A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.9N 123.0W ABOUT 865 MI...1395 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlotta was located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 123.0 West. Carlotta is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue through Monday, with a gradual turn toward the west on Monday night and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected over the next few days, and Carlotta is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Carlotta along the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula are expected to diminish today. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...CARLOTTA NOW A TROPICAL STORM... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sun Aug 4 the center of Carlotta was located near 19.9, -123.0 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 392 WTPZ23 KNHC 040841 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024 0900 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 123.0W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..105NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 123.0W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 122.4W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.2N 124.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.7N 126.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.2N 127.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.5N 129.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 21.6N 130.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 21.7N 132.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 123.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 040529
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Aug 3 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Carlotta, located several hundred miles to the west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on Tropical Storm
Daniel, located more than one thousand miles to the west-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP96):
A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of
southwestern Mexico continues to produce a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form during the next couple of days while the system
moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well
offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Well South-Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula (EP97):
Satellite-derived wind data indicate an area of low pressure located
several hundred miles to the south-southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula is gradually becoming better defined.
Although its shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized,
environmental conditions appear conducive for some development, and
a tropical depression could form during the next couple of days
while the system meanders within weak steering currents. Thereafter,
the system is forecast to interact with the disturbance (EP96) to
its southeast, which should limit further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Daniel are issued under
WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Daniel are issued under
WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Aug 03 2024 826 WTPZ44 KNHC 040240 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Daniel Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042024 800 PM PDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Deep convection associated with Daniel continues to pulse this evening. The convection is not well organized in bands, but it has recently moved closer to the low-level center. Subjective Dvorak current intensity numbers from TAFB and SAB remain T2.0 or 30 kt, but the initial intensity is once again held at 35 kt in deference to the earlier scatterometer data and the fact that there has been little overall change in organization. The intensity forecast reasoning remains the same as before. Moderate northeasterly shear and dry mid-level air is likely to prevent significant strengthening overnight. On Sunday, the shear is forecast to relax some which could allow the cyclone to strengthen slightly while it traverses warm sea surface temperatures. By 48 hours, Daniel is likely to weaken as it moves over cooler waters and reaches a more stable environment. The cyclone is likely to cease producing organized deep convection in about 60 hours, and it is forecast to become a remnant low around that time. Daniel has moved very little since the previous advisory, but a slow northward motion is expected to begin shortly. The cyclone should start moving faster toward the northeast on Sunday as southwesterly low to mid-level flow around Hurricane Carlotta increases. After 48 h, the influence of Carlotta's outer circulation should cause the weaker Daniel to turn more northward or north-northwestward before it becomes a remnant low. The updated NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory through 36-48 hours, and it adjusted slightly westward thereafter to be closer to the latest consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 12.3N 130.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 13.1N 130.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 14.2N 129.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 15.6N 127.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 17.1N 126.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 06/1200Z 18.5N 126.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/0000Z 19.6N 127.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

...DANIEL LOITERING OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sat Aug 3 the center of Daniel was located near 12.3, -130.5 with movement N at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 659 FOPZ14 KNHC 040239 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM DANIEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042024 0300 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANIEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 130W 34 X 17(17) 3(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 661 WTPZ24 KNHC 040239 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042024 0300 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 130.5W AT 04/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 60SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 130.5W AT 04/0300Z AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 130.6W FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 13.1N 130.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 14.2N 129.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 15.6N 127.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 17.1N 126.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.5N 126.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.6N 127.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 130.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Aug 03 2024 660 WTPZ34 KNHC 040239 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Daniel Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042024 800 PM PDT Sat Aug 03 2024 ...DANIEL LOITERING OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.3N 130.5W ABOUT 1540 MI...2475 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Daniel was located near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 130.5 West. Daniel has moved little during the past several hours, but a northward motion near 2 mph (4 km/h) is expected to begin overnight. A faster northeastward motion is forecast on Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so with some gradual weakening expected thereafter. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 02:41:37 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 03:35:09 GMT

...DANIEL LOITERING OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sat Aug 3 the center of Daniel was located near 12.3, -130.5 with movement N at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 02:39:13 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 03:29:19 GMT

Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Aug 03 2024 526 WTPZ43 KNHC 040237 TCDEP3 Hurricane Carlotta Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 800 PM PDT Sat Aug 03 2024 The structure of Carlotta on conventional geostationary satellite imagery has been gradually becoming less impressive. Although the latest subjective CI numbers are still around 77 kt, the latest CIMSS objective intensity estimates have fallen to the 65-72 kt range. Based on these data, the initial intensity is set to 70 kt. Carlotta is moving toward the west-northwest, or 285/9 kt. A deep-layer ridge to the north of Carlotta will keep the cyclone moving on a west-northwestward course at a similar forward speed during the next couple of days. After that time, Carlotta is expected to become more vertically shallow, which should ultimately cause the cyclone to turn westward within the low-level steering flow. The new NHC track forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous forecast, and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. Carlotta has crossed the 26C SST isotherm this evening and is forecast to reach SSTs colder than 24C within the next 24 h. The cyclone is currently in a low-shear environment, but southwesterly shear is forecast to become much stronger in about 24 h. Carlotta will also be reaching a more stable environment by Sunday morning. The combination of these factors will cause continued weakening. Carlotta is forecast to become a remnant low on Tuesday morning, as both the GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery show the cyclone losing its convection by that time. The remnant low should then dissipate later in the week. The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the intensity consensus aids and is nearly identical to the previous NHC forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 19.4N 121.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 19.8N 123.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 20.4N 125.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 21.0N 127.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 21.3N 128.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 06/1200Z 21.6N 130.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/0000Z 21.7N 131.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/0000Z 21.6N 134.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen/Brown

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 040237 PWSEP3 HURRICANE CARLOTTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024 0300 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 125W 34 12 75(87) 2(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) 20N 125W 50 1 43(44) 3(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) 20N 125W 64 X 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 25N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/BROWN

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 040237 TCMEP3 HURRICANE CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024 0300 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 121.9W AT 04/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..105NE 75SE 75SW 105NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 121.9W AT 04/0300Z AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 121.4W FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.8N 123.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.4N 125.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.0N 127.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.3N 128.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.6N 130.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 21.7N 131.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 21.6N 134.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 121.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/BROWN