National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 151713
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Oct 15 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 141720
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Oct 14 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

462
ABPZ20 KNHC 131725
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Oct 13 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

740
ABPZ20 KNHC 121750
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Oct 12 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Near the coast of Southern Mexico:
A small area of low pressure located near the coast of southern
Mexico is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity. Any
development of this system over the next few days is likely to be
slow to occur due to unfavorable upper-level winds and proximity
to land. The system is forecast to move west-northwestward to
westward near the southern coast of Mexico during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 111741
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Oct 11 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Near the coast of Southern Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending from near the Gulf
of Tehuantepec southwestward for a few hundred miles are associated
with a surface trough and Julia's remnants. Development, if any,
of this system is likely to be slow to occur due to dry air aloft
and marginal upper-level winds. This system is forecast to move
westward to west-northwestward, near the coast of southern Mexico,
through the end of the week. Regardless of development, heavy
rainfall could cause flash flooding across portions of southern
Mexico during the next day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 101731
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Oct 10 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Julia, located inland over southern Guatemala.

Near the coast of Southern Mexico:
Tropical Depression Julia is forecast to dissipate inland over
Guatemala later today or tonight. A portion of its remnants are
expected to move westward and could contribute to the formation of
a new area of low pressure just south of the coast of southern
Mexico in another day or two. Some subsequent gradual development
of the new system will be possible while it moves generally
westward to west-northwestward near the coast of Mexico through the
end of the week. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall
associated with the remnants of Julia interacting with a broader
area of low pressure will likely cause flash flooding and mudslides
across portions of southern Mexico and northern Central America
during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 10 2022 637 WTPZ43 KNHC 101445 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Julia Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182022 1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 10 2022 Microwave and surface observations indicate the center of Julia went inland just before 1200 UTC about 35 miles west of San Salvador. Deep convection has weakened somewhat over the center since that time, and the whole circulation is becoming stretched by the mountainous terrain. The initial wind speed is lowered to 30 kt, assuming some spin down of the winds from friction. Julia should dissipate by this evening while it continues moving west-northwestward over southern Guatemala. No significant changes were made to the previous forecast. Regardless, heavy rainfall is likely to continue over portions of Central America through today and southern Mexico through tomorrow. Some of the residual moisture and vorticity associated with Julia could become absorbed within a broader cyclonic envelope to the west, associated with an ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. For information on the potential for new development offshore of southern Mexico later this week, please see the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected across portions of Central America today. Flash flooding is anticipated across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico through Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 14.1N 90.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 11/0000Z 15.2N 92.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 10 Oct 2022 14:45:37 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 10 Oct 2022 15:22:10 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 10 2022 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 101445 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182022 1500 UTC MON OCT 10 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 10 2022 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 101445 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Julia Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182022 1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 10 2022 ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES SHOULD CONTINUE FROM JULIA ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.1N 90.3W ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM ENE OF PUERTO SAN JOSE GUATEMALA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: All watches and warnings have been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: None. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Julia was located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 90.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through today. On the forecast track, the center of Julia will move over southern Guatemala today. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Julia is expected to dissipate this evening. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP3.shtml. RAINFALL: Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Tuesday: *El Salvador and southern Guatemala...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches *Western Honduras and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches *Belize, remainder of Honduras, and northern Guatemala...additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm total of 10 inches *Nicaragua...additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm total of 15 inches *Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico...additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm total of 6 inches This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides across Central America today. Flash flooding is anticipated across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico through Tuesday. SURF: Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are possible today along the coasts of El Salvador and Guatemala. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES SHOULD CONTINUE FROM JULIA ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY... As of 10:00 AM CDT Mon Oct 10 the center of Julia was located near 14.1, -90.3 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 10 2022 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 101442 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182022 1500 UTC MON OCT 10 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... NONE. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 90.3W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 90.3W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 89.7W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 15.2N 92.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 90.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 091708
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Oct 9 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Storm Julia, located inland over Nicaragua.

Off the coast of Central America and Southern Mexico:
Julia is expected to complete its westward crossing of Central
America today and emerge over the extreme eastern Pacific tonight.
The system is forecast to dissipate near the southern coast of
Central America in couple of days, and significant re-development
of the remaining disturbance is not anticipated as it passes to the
south of southern Mexico by the middle of this week. More
information on Tropical Storm Julia can be found on the web at
hurricanes.gov.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

&&
The last Atlantic basin intermediate public advisory at 100 PM CDT
on Tropical Storm Julia will be issued under WMO header WTNT33 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.

The next public advisory at 400 PM CDT on Tropical Storm Julia
will be issued under Eastern Pacific WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and
under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
The next forecast/advisory at 400 PM CDT on Tropical Storm Julia
will be issued under Eastern Pacific WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and
under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 081737
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Oct 8 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Off the coast of Central America and Southern Mexico:
Tropical Storm Julia is located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea
and is forecast to cross portions of Central America Sunday and
Sunday night. Although the system is expected to dissipate over the
extreme eastern Pacific in a few days, environmental conditions
appear conducive for some development of the remaining disturbance
as it passes to the south of southern Mexico by the middle of next
week. More information on Tropical Storm Julia can be found on the
web at hurricanes.gov.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Julia are issued under
WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Julia are issued under
WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

$$
Forecaster Latto

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 071712
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Oct 7 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Latto

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 061739
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Oct 6 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Latto

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 051736
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Oct 5 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Paine, located several hundred miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Latto

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 05 Oct 2022 14:39:36 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 05 Oct 2022 15:28:13 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 05 2022 795 FOPZ12 KNHC 051438 PWSEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172022 1500 UTC WED OCT 05 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 6 6(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 20N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Oct 05 2022 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 051438 TCDEP2 Tropical Depression Paine Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172022 900 AM MDT Wed Oct 05 2022 Organized deep convection has been absent from Paine for the past 12 hours, but a couple of small bursts of convection have pulsed over the past few hours. Therefore, it is prudent to wait to see if that convection increases through this morning's diurnal maximum before declaring the system post-tropical. Given the expected increase in westerly shear and dry mid-level environment it is unlikely the convection will persist or gain any organization. The initial intensity has been lowered to 30 kt, in agreement with the latest TAFB Dvorak classification. Continued weakening is expected due to the aforementioned unfavorable conditions and Paine should become a remnant low this afternoon, and the circulation is foreast to become an open trough within 48 hours. Paine is moving northwestward or 305/4 kt. The cyclone's motion should bend toward the west-northwest and west over the next 24 to 36 hours as it becomes increasingly shallow and is steered by the low-level flow. No significant changes were required to the previous track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 18.4N 114.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 18.6N 114.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 06/1200Z 18.8N 115.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/0000Z 18.9N 115.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown