National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 081132
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Jul 8 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Blake

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 080527
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Jul 7 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 072310
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Jul 7 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 071705
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Jul 7 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 071125
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Jul 7 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 070524
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Jul 6 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 062314
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Jul 6 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 061716
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Jul 6 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 061110
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Jul 6 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 060526
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Jul 5 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Aletta, which has become a remnant low located a few hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 06 Jul 2024 02:33:57 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 06 Jul 2024 03:28:38 GMT

Issued at 800 PM MST Fri Jul 05 2024 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 060232 TCDEP1 Post-Tropical Cyclone Aletta Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012024 800 PM MST Fri Jul 05 2024 Convection has continued to diminish in association with Aletta. Little or no organized deep convection has been seen since late Thursday morning. Both the GFS and the ECMWF simulated satellite imagery do not indicate any return of deep convection. Given the marginal environment, the remnant low should continue to spin down. Aletta is forecast to dissipate on Saturday. Do to the very poor appearance on satellite imagery and the lack of any pressure gradients in the area, the initial intensity has been lowered to 20 kt. Socorro Island measured a maximum wind of 21 kt a few hours ago as Aletta passed just south of the island. Earlier ASCAT-B data from 1712 UTC only showed peak winds in the 20-25 kt range at that time. No significant change has been made to the NHC track forecast. Aletta should continue to be steered by the low-level flow in a direction just south of due west until it dissipates. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 18.4N 111.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 06/1200Z 18.3N 112.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen/Cangialosi

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUL 06 2024 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 060232 PWSEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ALETTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012024 0300 UTC SAT JUL 06 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ALETTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 KTS...25 MPH...35 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/CANGIALOSI

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUL 06 2024 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 060232 TCMEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ALETTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012024 0300 UTC SAT JUL 06 2024 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 111.6W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 111.6W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 111.2W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.3N 112.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 111.6W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/CANGIALOSI

Issued at 800 PM MST Fri Jul 05 2024 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 060232 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Aletta Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012024 800 PM MST Fri Jul 05 2024 ...ALETTA DEGENERATES TO A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 111.6W ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Aletta was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 111.6 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue until Aletta dissipates on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 25 mph (35 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast to continue, and Aletta is expected to dissipate on Saturday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Cangialosi

...ALETTA DEGENERATES TO A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY... As of 8:00 PM MST Fri Jul 5 the center of Aletta was located near 18.4, -111.6 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 25 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 052308
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Jul 5 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Aletta, located a couple of hundred miles offshore of
the southwestern coast of Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Cangialosi

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 05 Jul 2024 20:33:11 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 05 Jul 2024 21:29:01 GMT

Issued at 200 PM MST Fri Jul 05 2024 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 052032 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Aletta Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012024 200 PM MST Fri Jul 05 2024 Aletta is no longer producing organized deep convection. If this current convective trend continues, Aletta will become a remnant low later this evening. ASCAT-B data at 1712 UTC showed Aletta still has a well-defined center, but indicated its maximum winds have decreased to 25 kt. The depression's initial motion estimate is 260/10 kt. Aletta should generally remain on this heading with a similar forward speed for the next day or so until it dissipates. Environmental conditions around Aletta do not appear to be conducive for the redevelopment of organized deep convection and all models indicate that the cyclone will continue to weaken from this point. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 18.6N 110.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 18.3N 112.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 06/1800Z 18.3N 113.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 05 2024 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 052031 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012024 2100 UTC FRI JUL 05 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY