National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 061715
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Jul 6 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Bonnie, located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

Offshore of Southeastern Mexico:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles south of the
southeastern coast of Mexico is producing an area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form well south or southwest of the southwestern coast
of Mexico over the weekend while the disturbance moves generally
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 06 Jul 2022 14:52:10 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 06 Jul 2022 15:22:39 GMT

Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Jul 06 2022 751 WTPZ44 KNHC 061449 TCDEP4 Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022 900 AM MDT Wed Jul 06 2022 There's been quite a bit of improvement this morning in Bonnie's inner core structure and a cloud-filled eye reappeared in first light visible imagery. A 1216 UTC SSMI/S microwave pass revealed a partial eyewall with about 70 percent coverage in the north through southwest quadrants and recent enhanced infrared images show Bonnie attempting to close off a white ring with -77C cloud top temperatures. The initial intensity is raised to 90 kt for this advisory, in accordance with the subjective satellite intensity estimates. Bonnie's surface wind profile has been reduced in all quadrants based on a 0448 UTC METOP-B scatterometer overpass and subsequently has been adjusted downward in the forecast. The predicted decrease in vertical wind shear has allowed Bonnie to make a comeback. This sudden intensification is expected to be temporary, however, and Bonnie should begin to weaken slowly on Thursday while it begins its track over decreasing oceanic surface temperatures. Dry, stable environmental conditions will also contribute to its eventual dissipation by late this weekend. The NHC forecast is again adjusted downward from the previous one and is based mainly on the global models and the IVCN intensity aid. Bonnie should degenerate to a remnant low in 4 days, if not earlier, and open into a trough of low pressure early next week. Bonnie's moving westward, or 280/10 kt within the westerly mid-level steering flow of a subtropical ridge to the north. There are no changes to the forecast track philosophy. The cyclone should continue on a westward to west-northwestward fashion with an increase in forward speed commencing Thursday. The official forecast is essentially the same as last night's advisory and agrees with the TVCE multi-model consensus. Although Bonnie will be moving farther away from the southwestern coast of Mexico, rough surf and the potential for rip currents will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 16.1N 108.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 16.5N 110.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 17.0N 113.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 17.6N 115.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 18.2N 119.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 09/0000Z 18.8N 122.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 19.2N 126.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 10/1200Z 19.4N 133.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts

Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 06 2022 101 FOPZ14 KNHC 061447 PWSEP4 HURRICANE BONNIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022 1500 UTC WED JUL 06 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 110W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLA CLARION 34 1 9(10) 51(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) ISLA CLARION 50 X 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 115W 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 115W 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 10(23) X(23) X(23) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 1(22) X(22) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Jul 06 2022 496 WTPZ34 KNHC 061446 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Bonnie Advisory Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022 900 AM MDT Wed Jul 06 2022 ...RESILIENT BONNIE RESTRENGTHENS... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 109.0W ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Bonnie was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 109.0 West. Bonnie is moving a little slower toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion is forecast through the week with an increase in forward speed beginning on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight fluctuations in strength are possible today. Gradual weakening is forecast to commence later tonight continue through Saturday. Bonnie is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone in a few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Bonnie will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts

...RESILIENT BONNIE RESTRENGTHENS... As of 9:00 AM MDT Wed Jul 6 the center of Bonnie was located near 16.1, -109.0 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 970 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 06 2022 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 061444 TCMEP4 HURRICANE BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022 1500 UTC WED JUL 06 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 109.0W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 108.9W AT 06/1500Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 108.4W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 16.5N 110.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 40NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 17.0N 113.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 17.6N 115.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 18.2N 119.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 18.8N 122.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 19.2N 126.4W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 19.4N 133.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 108.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 051719
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Jul 5 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Bonnie, located a couple of hundred miles south of southwestern
Mexico.

1. Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is expected to form well south of the
southern coast of Mexico toward the end of the week. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development
of this system over the weekend while it moves generally
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 05 Jul 2022 14:38:29 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 05 Jul 2022 15:22:52 GMT

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 051437 TCDEP4 Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022 1000 AM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022 Earlier microwave images reveal a well-developed inner core structure with a 10-nm-wide eye, and impressive curved band features in the west and south parts of the cyclone. The surrounding cloud tops have cooled quite a bit during the past few hours, but the eye temperature hasn't warmed that much. The initial intensity is increased to 100 kt for this advisory and is supported by a blend of the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. It appears as though modest northeasterly shear has begun to restrict the outflow some in the north portion of the cyclone, and this shear is expected to persist during the next 24 hours. Consequently, some fluctuations in strength are possible during the period and the NHC forecast shows a slight increase in intensity in 12 hours in deference to the recent inner core improvement. Afterward, the inhibiting shear should decrease, however,the GFS and ECMWF SHIPS intensity models show the cyclone traversing cooler oceanic surface temperatures and moving into a less favorable thermodynamic surrounding environment. A combination of these negative intensity contributions should cause Bonnie to slowly weaken through the remainder of the period and the official forecast follows suit. Bonnie's initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 280/12 kt. A mid-tropospheric ridge anchored to the north of the cyclone should keep it on a west to west-northwest heading through the entire forecast period. Around mid-period, however, a weakness in the ridge is forecast to develop over the Baja California peninsula, which should temporarily slow Bonnie's forward speed. The track forecast is a little faster than the previous one beyond day 3 and is based on the TVCE multi-model consensus aid. Although the core of Bonnie is expected to remain well south of Mexico, rough surf and the potential for rip currents will continue to affect southwestern Mexico for another day or two. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 15.3N 104.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 15.6N 106.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 16.0N 108.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 16.3N 110.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 16.8N 112.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 08/0000Z 17.4N 115.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 18.2N 118.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 09/1200Z 19.5N 125.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 10/1200Z 20.4N 131.3W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 05 2022 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 051434 PWSEP4 HURRICANE BONNIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022 1500 UTC TUE JUL 05 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 105W 50 93 X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) 15N 105W 64 37 X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) MANZANILLO 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 1 17(18) 48(66) 2(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) 15N 110W 50 X 1( 1) 19(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) 14(16) 13(29) 2(31) X(31) X(31) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 50(69) X(69) X(69) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 30(32) X(32) X(32) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) X(13) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 20(31) 1(32) X(32) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) 1(25) X(25) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) X(12) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 28(48) X(48) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) X(17) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 40(40) 8(48) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 5(17) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 051433 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Bonnie Advisory Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022 1000 AM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022 ...BONNIE BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...FIRST OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC SEASON... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.3N 104.3W ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Bonnie was located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 104.3 West. Bonnie is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion is forecast through the period with a slight decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the core of Bonnie is expected to move parallel to, but remain south of the coast of southwestern Mexico today. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Bonnie is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in strength are possible through Thursday. A gradual weakening trend is expected to begin thereafter. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Bonnie will affect portions of the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts

...BONNIE BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...FIRST OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC SEASON... As of 10:00 AM CDT Tue Jul 5 the center of Bonnie was located near 15.3, -104.3 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 964 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 05 2022 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 051432 TCMEP4 HURRICANE BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022 1500 UTC TUE JUL 05 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 104.3W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 50SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 104.3W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 103.7W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 15.6N 106.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 16.0N 108.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 16.3N 110.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.8N 112.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 17.4N 115.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 18.2N 118.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 19.5N 125.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 20.4N 131.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 104.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 041718
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Jul 4 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Bonnie, located a couple of hundred miles south of southern Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 04 Jul 2022 14:50:13 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 04 Jul 2022 15:23:38 GMT

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Jul 04 2022 985 WTPZ44 KNHC 041448 TCDEP4 Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022 1000 AM CDT Mon Jul 04 2022 Bonnie's satellite presentation has improved this morning with a ragged eye becoming more apparent in both infrared and visible satellite imagery. An earlier AMSR2 microwave overpass that arrived after the release of the previous advisory, and more recent SSMIS imagery revealed a fairly well-defined low- to mid-level eye feature. Subjective Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and SAB are T4.5 or 77 kt. Objective estimates from UW/CIMSS are lagging a bit, but recent raw T-numbers have increased as the eye has become better defined. The advisory intensity is set at 80 kt, near the higher end of the estimates due to the continued improvement in structure. Bonnie's intensity forecast is a bit tricky this morning as expected subtle changes in shear throughout the forecast period could have larger-than-normal implications on the forecast. In the very near term, some additional strengthening is likely while Bonnie remains within an area of moderate northeasterly shear and otherwise favorable environmental conditions. The NHC wind speed forecast is near the high end of the guidance during the first 12-24 hours given the recent upward trend in organization. The shear is forecast to increase on Tuesday, which the guidance suggests will cause Bonnie's intensity to plateau or perhaps fluctuate over the next 2-3 days. By 72 hours, global models now indicate that the shear will decrease while the system is still over marginally warm water. As a result, the NHC forecast keeps Bonnie's intensity slightly higher through 96 h than the previous advisory. Shortly after that time, rapid weakening is likely to begin as the cyclone moves over waters less than 26C and into a less favorable thermodynamic environment. Bonnie is moving briskly westward to west-northwestward with a longer term motion of 285/16 kt. The track forecast reasoning has not changed over the past day or so. Bonnie should continue to move generally west-northwestward with some reduction in forward speed while it is steered by a large mid-level to the north. This motion will take Bonnie roughly parallel to but well offshore the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next day or two. The latest NHC track forecast is again an update of the previous advisory, and it remains close to the TVCE multi-model consensus aid. The forecast keeps tropical-storm-force winds associated with Bonnie offshore the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico, but coastal locations can still expect rough surf and the potential for rip currents today and Tuesday as Bonnie passes offshore. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 13.7N 99.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 14.4N 101.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 15.1N 104.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 15.6N 106.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 16.0N 108.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 07/0000Z 16.2N 110.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 16.4N 112.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 17.6N 117.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 09/1200Z 19.1N 124.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 04 2022 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 041448 PWSEP4 HURRICANE BONNIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022 1500 UTC MON JUL 04 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 1 67(68) 28(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) 15N 105W 50 X 20(20) 55(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) 15N 105W 64 X 6( 6) 44(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MANZANILLO 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) L CARDENAS 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ZIHUATANEJO 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 100W 34 90 X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) 15N 100W 50 14 X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) 15N 100W 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ACAPULCO 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 35(40) 30(70) X(70) X(70) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 26(33) X(33) X(33) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) X(16) X(16) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 1(12) X(12) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 23(30) 1(31) X(31) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 35(54) 1(55) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) X(22) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 31(49) X(49) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 1(18) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 18(23) X(23) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 11(22) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 28(41) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 04 2022 234 WTPZ24 KNHC 041447 TCMEP4 HURRICANE BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022 1500 UTC MON JUL 04 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 99.0W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 99.0W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 98.3W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 14.4N 101.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 15.1N 104.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 15.6N 106.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 16.0N 108.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 16.2N 110.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.4N 112.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 17.6N 117.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 19.1N 124.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 99.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Jul 04 2022 235 WTPZ34 KNHC 041447 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Bonnie Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022 1000 AM CDT Mon Jul 04 2022 ...BONNIE STRENGTHENING... ...BRINGING ROUGH SURF AND THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS TO PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 99.0W ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Bonnie was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 99.0 West. Bonnie is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). A west- northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Bonnie is expected to move parallel to, but remain south of, the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next day or two. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast today, followed by little overall change in intensity Tuesday and Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The outer rain bands of Bonnie could cause areas of heavy rainfall during the next day or so across portions of southern and southwestern Mexico. SURF: Swells generated by Bonnie will affect portions of the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown