National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 171730
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Sep 17 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central East Pacific:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located well south of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula continue to show signs of becoming better
organized. This system is currently elongated, but environmental
conditions are expected to allow for additional development during
the next few days. A tropical depression is expected to form by the
middle of the week while the system moves west-northwestward over
the central and western portions of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 16 Sep 2023 20:34:15 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 16 Sep 2023 21:41:50 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM HST Sat Sep 16 2023 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 162033 TCDEP2 Tropical Depression Twelve-E Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122023 1100 AM HST Sat Sep 16 2023 The structure of the depression has degraded during the last several hours. The low-level center is now completely exposed and well removed to the west of a decaying area of deep convection. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt, but this could be a little generous. The system is moving westward at 10 kt. A westward to west-southwestward motion is expected in the low- to mid-level flow during the next day or so. The depression, or its remnant low, is expected to move into the Central Pacific basin this afternoon. Strong shear and dry air will continue to affect the depression and should ultimately cause the system to lose the remaining convection by tonight, as persistently forecast by the GFS and ECMWF models. Dissipation is likely to occur by 36 hours. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 500 PM HST, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP4, WMO header WTPA34 PHFO. Products will continue to be available on the web at hurricanes.gov FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 14.2N 139.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 13.9N 141.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 17/1800Z 13.5N 142.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...DEPRESSION NEAR THE CENTRAL PACIFIC AND POORLY ORGANIZED... ...THE NEXT ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER... As of 11:00 AM HST Sat Sep 16 the center of Twelve-E was located near 14.2, -139.7 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 16 2023 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 162033 PWSEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122023 2100 UTC SAT SEP 16 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 139.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 1100 AM HST Sat Sep 16 2023 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 162033 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twelve-E Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122023 1100 AM HST Sat Sep 16 2023 ...DEPRESSION NEAR THE CENTRAL PACIFIC AND POORLY ORGANIZED... ...THE NEXT ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 139.7W ABOUT 1085 MI...1745 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 1290 MI...2080 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twelve-E was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 139.7 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A westward to west-southwestward motion is expected during the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected, and the depression is forecast to become a remnant low tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 500 PM HST, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP4, WMO header WTPA34 PHFO. Products will continue to be available on the web at hurricanes.gov $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 16 2023 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 162032 TCMEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122023 2100 UTC SAT SEP 16 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 139.7W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 139.7W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 139.2W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 13.9N 141.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 13.5N 142.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 139.7W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN FORECAST/ ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER BEGINNING AT 0300 UTC...UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCMCP4 ...WMO HEADER WTPA24 PHFO. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 161739
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Sep 16 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Twelve-E, located over the western portion of the East
Pacific.

Central East Pacific:
A broad area of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms well south of southern Mexico. Environmental
conditions are forecast to become conducive for gradual development
of this system, and a tropical depression could form by the middle
of next week. The system is expected to move west-northwestward over
the central and western portions of the east Pacific during the next
several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 15 Sep 2023 20:58:13 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 15 Sep 2023 21:43:50 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 15 2023 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 152037 PWSEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122023 ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 2100 UTC FRI SEP 15 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 140W 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) $$ FORECASTER R BALLARD

Issued at 1100 AM HST Fri Sep 15 2023 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 152037 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twelve-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122023 Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 1100 AM HST Fri Sep 15 2023 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E FORMS IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 136.2W ABOUT 1285 MI...2065 KM E OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 1485 MI...2390 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twelve-E was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 136.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected over the next day or so, but the depression is expected to dissipate as a remnant low within a couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster R Ballard

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E FORMS IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN... As of 11:00 AM HST Fri Sep 15 the center of Twelve-E was located near 15.1, -136.2 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Issued at 1100 AM HST Fri Sep 15 2023 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 152033 TCDEP2 Tropical Depression Twelve-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122023 Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 1100 AM HST Fri Sep 15 2023 The tropical disturbance that we've been watching for a few days had a burst of vigorous deep convection overnight. Overnight microwave passes and satellite imagery over the last 24 hours have shown increased organization at times in the convective banding. The deep convection now appears to be persistent and organized enough to classify this system as a tropical depression. A blend of satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and CPHC suggest initiating advisories for this system with an intensity of 25 kt. More recently, visible satellite imagery is showing the low level center has emerged from the higher clouds associated with the convection. UW-CIMSS shear analysis indicates that Tropical Depression 12E is embedded within the southern periphery of a belt of stronger westerly shear, associated with the subtropical jet stream to the north. The depression is not likely to last long, as global models indicate the subtropical jet will sag south a bit over the next couple of days, maintaining westerly shear over the system. Simulated satellite imagery from the global models suggests that occasional pulses of deep convection may continue for a day or so as the system is steered toward the west-southwest by the trade wind flow to the south of a strengthening subtropical ridge. The track forecast most closely follows the TVCN until the system becomes a remnant low far to the east-southeast of Hawaii. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 15.1N 136.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 15.0N 137.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 14.8N 138.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 14.7N 140.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/1800Z 14.5N 141.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster R Ballard

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 15 2023 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 152032 TCMEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122023 ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 2100 UTC FRI SEP 15 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 136.2W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 136.2W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 135.8W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.0N 137.2W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 14.8N 138.6W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.7N 140.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 14.5N 141.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 136.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER R BALLARD

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 151718
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Sep 15 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Western East Pacific (EP94):
Showers and thunderstorms have increased and become better organized
on the east side of an area of low pressure located about 1300 miles
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. If these trends continue, a
short-lived tropical depression will likely form later today while
it moves generally west-northwestward at about 10 mph. Environmental
conditions are expected to become unfavorable over the weekend,
ending the system's chances for additional development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Bucci

485
ABPZ20 KNHC 141728
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Sep 14 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Western East Pacific (EP94):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located well to the west-southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula are gradually becoming better
organized. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the next day or so while it moves west-northwestward to
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the western portion of the
eastern Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

374
ABPZ20 KNHC 131746
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Sep 13 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Western East Pacific (EP94):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located well to the southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California Peninsula are showing some signs of organization.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next
couple of days or so while it moves west-northwestward to
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. By the weekend, upper-level winds are
forecast to become less favorable for additional development while
the system moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 121738
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Sep 12 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Western East Pacific:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located well southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula has increased today, but remains disorganized. Some
additional development of this system is expected during the next
few days as the system moves generally northwestward, and a tropical
depression could form later this week. The system is then forecast
to turn westward over the weekend, at which time further development
is not anticipated.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 111733
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Sep 11 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 10 Sep 2023 20:38:12 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 10 Sep 2023 21:36:27 GMT