National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

...JOVA STRENGTHENS SOME MORE... ...FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE... As of 3:00 PM MDT Tue Sep 5 the center of Jova was located near 12.9, -108.3 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 05 2023 142 WTPZ21 KNHC 052048 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112023 2100 UTC TUE SEP 05 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 108.3W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 108.3W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 108.0W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 13.3N 109.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 14.3N 111.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 15.1N 114.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 16.2N 116.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 110SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 17.3N 118.9W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...190NE 190SE 110SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 18.8N 121.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 160SE 110SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 21.5N 126.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 23.5N 130.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.9N 108.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY/BLAKE

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 051747
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Sep 5 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jova, located several hundred miles offshore
of the southwestern coast of Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Blake

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 051747
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Sep 5 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jova, located several hundred miles offshore
of the southwestern coast of Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Blake

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 04 Sep 2023 20:39:10 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 04 Sep 2023 21:30:27 GMT

Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Sep 04 2023 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 042037 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023 400 PM CDT Mon Sep 04 2023 Recent visible satellite imagery indicates that the disturbance located south of the southwestern coast of Mexico (93E) has developed a well-defined circulation. In addition, a prominent band of deep convection has formed around its western half. The latest Dvorak classification Data-T from TAFB is a 2.0, which corresponds to 30 kt. Based on the available data, the system has been classified as Tropical Depression Eleven. The depression is moving westward, with an estimated forward speed of 10 kt. While all models agree that the cyclone will head generally west-northwestward for the next 5 or more days, moving well south and west of Mexico, there is substantial disagreement on its forward speed. The main source of this uncertainty appears to be differences in the strength of the primary steering mechanism influencing the depression, a deep ridge centered over northern Mexico and the southwestern U.S. that extends over the eastern Pacific. The stronger the ridge, the faster the cyclone will move. The uncertainty in the track forecast is much higher than normal by the end of the forecast, with even the consensus models relatively far apart. At day 5, the gap between HCCA and TVCN is more than 150 n mi. As a course of least regret, the NHC forecast doesn't favor any one model or consensus aid, generally staying between the simple and corrected consensus tracks. The environment looks very conducive for strengthening, possibly significantly so. SHIPS-derived shear is forecast to be near or below 10 kt through day 5, with plenty of moisture and warm SSTs available as well. It will likely take a day or so for the depression to get sufficiently organized to take advantage of this environment, so only slow strengthening is forecast for the first 24 h. Looking beyond that, the SHIPS-RII and DTOPS rapid intensification (RI) probabilities for 65kt/72 h are both above 60 percent. The NHC forecast explicitly shows RI starting at 36 h and continuing through 72 h. While there is spread at just how strong the cyclone will get, most models suggest its peak will come between 72 and 96 h, so a peak intensity higher than what the NHC forecast shows is definitely possible. Beginning at 96 h, the cyclone should begin to quickly spin down as it moves over cooler waters. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 12.5N 104.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 12.8N 105.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 13.3N 106.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 13.9N 108.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 14.6N 110.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 07/0600Z 15.5N 112.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 16.5N 114.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 08/1800Z 19.0N 119.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 09/1800Z 21.5N 124.5W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 04 2023 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 042037 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112023 2100 UTC MON SEP 04 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 10N 110W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 53(63) 13(76) X(76) X(76) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 24(24) 10(34) X(34) X(34) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) X(14) X(14) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 1(14) X(14) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 43(44) 14(58) X(58) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 12(25) X(25) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) X(12) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 49(51) 4(55) X(55) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 4(22) X(22) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 17(28) X(28) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 55(55) 21(76) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 19(45) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 15(27) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 35(37) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 25N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Sep 04 2023 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 042036 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023 400 PM CDT Mon Sep 04 2023 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BASIN LATER THIS WEEK... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.5N 104.2W ABOUT 810 MI...1305 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E was located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 104.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A generally west-northwestward motion is expected for the next several days. The depression is forecast to stay well south and west of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is likely. A relatively slow rate of intensification is expected for the next day or so, followed by rapid strengthening beginning by the middle of the week. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BASIN LATER THIS WEEK... As of 4:00 PM CDT Mon Sep 4 the center of Eleven-E was located near 12.5, -104.2 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 04 2023 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 042036 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112023 2100 UTC MON SEP 04 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 104.2W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 104.2W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 103.8W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 12.8N 105.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 13.3N 106.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 13.9N 108.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 14.6N 110.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 150SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 15.5N 112.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 16.5N 114.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 90SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 19.0N 119.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 21.5N 124.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 104.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 041756
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Sep 4 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central East Pacific (EP93):
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located a few hundred miles south of the southwestern coast of
Mexico continues to show signs of organization. Although the
low-level circulation of the system appears to be elongated for the
moment, further development is expected and a tropical depression
is very likely to form during the next day or two. The system is
forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph,
passing well south of mainland Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031721
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Sep 3 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central East Pacific (EP93):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
south of the southern coast of Mexico are beginning to show slight
indications of organization. Environmental conditions are forecast
to be conducive for further development of this system, and a
tropical depression is expected to form in the next two to three
days. The system is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward,
passing well south of mainland Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031721
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Sep 3 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central East Pacific (EP93):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
south of the southern coast of Mexico are beginning to show slight
indications of organization. Environmental conditions are forecast
to be conducive for further development of this system, and a
tropical depression is expected to form in the next two to three
days. The system is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward,
passing well south of mainland Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 021728
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Sep 2 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central East Pacific:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue over the far
eastern Pacific south of the coasts of Guatemala and Mexico in
association with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for gradual development of this system
during the next several days, and a tropical depression is expected
to form by the middle of next week. The system is forecast to move
westward to west-northwestward, passing well south of mainland
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011737
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Sep 1 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico early next week.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form
during the middle to latter parts of next week while it moves
west-northwestward over the central portion of the eastern Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 311730
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Aug 31 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301725
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Aug 30 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 29 Aug 2023 20:36:36 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 29 Aug 2023 21:43:36 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM HST Tue Aug 29 2023 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 292035 TCDEP5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Irwin Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102023 1100 AM HST Tue Aug 29 2023 Irwin has failed to produce any convection near its center during the last 15-18 h. Since it no longer satisfies the criteria of a tropical cyclone, Irwin is being designated as a post-tropical cyclone with this advisory. A recent scatterometer pass showed a broad area of winds at or slightly above 30 kt in the northwestern quadrant, and so the initial intensity remains 35 kt. The post-tropical cyclone is moving slightly south of due west (260/15 kt). A general westward motion at a gradually slower forward speed is expected over the next several days while Irwin is steered by a low-level ridge over the eastern Pacific. Gradual weakening is forecast as the shallow cyclone spins down over cooler waters and in a drier, more stable environment. While some intermittent bursts of convection could occur during the next couple of days, the overall environment does not appear conducive for Irwin to regenerate to a tropical cyclone. This is the last NHC advisory on Irwin. For additional information on the post-tropical cyclone, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 19.1N 130.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 30/0600Z 18.9N 132.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 30/1800Z 18.8N 134.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 31/0600Z 18.8N 136.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 31/1800Z 18.9N 138.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 01/0600Z 19.0N 139.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/1800Z 19.0N 140.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 02/1800Z 19.0N 141.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 03/1800Z 19.5N 143.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 29 2023 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 292034 PWSEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IRWIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102023 2100 UTC TUE AUG 29 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IRWIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 135W 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER REINHART