National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 900 AM MDT Sat Jun 25 2022 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 251439 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 900 AM MDT Sat Jun 25 2022 Celia's convective organization is slightly better this morning, with a broken ring of cold cloud tops noted in infrared imagery. However, a recent SSMIS microwave pass shows that the near-core convection is limited to the southwest of the center. The storm has extensive convective banding within the eastern and southeastern parts of the circulation. Dvorak Current Intensity numbers remain 3.5 from TAFB and SAB, so the initial intensity remains 55 kt. Celia took a temporary turn toward the northwest overnight, but the motion appears to have settled out to west-northwestward, or 300/6 kt. Mid-level ridging to the north is expected to keep Celia on a west-northwestward motion for the next 4 days or so, with a gradual increase in forward speed. As a weaker, shallower system, the remnant low should turn westward by day 5. The GFS is a little slower than the other models, but otherwise the model guidance is tightly packed. Therefore, no significant changes were made to the previous forecast. Even though deep-layer shear is now low, the thermodynamic environment has kept the storm from strengthening over the past day or so. Celia's center is now over 26 degrees Celsius water and heading toward even colder waters, and therefore gradual weakening is anticipated during the next few days. Celia is likely to cease producing organized deep convection and thus become a post-tropical low by day 3. The updated intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast and closely follows the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 18.5N 110.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 18.8N 111.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 19.2N 113.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 19.7N 115.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 20.2N 117.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 28/0000Z 20.8N 118.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 28/1200Z 21.5N 121.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/1200Z 22.5N 125.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/1200Z 22.9N 130.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUN 25 2022 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 251438 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022 1500 UTC SAT JUN 25 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 110W 34 4 1( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLA SOCORRO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA SOCORRO 50 90 X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) ISLA SOCORRO 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLA CLARION 34 1 16(17) 20(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 115W 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 1 11(12) 49(61) 7(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) 20N 115W 50 X 1( 1) 20(21) 4(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 14(18) X(18) X(18) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUN 25 2022 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 251438 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022 1500 UTC SAT JUN 25 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 110.8W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 75SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 110.8W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 110.4W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.8N 111.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 19.2N 113.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 19.7N 115.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 20.2N 117.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 20.8N 118.9W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 21.5N 121.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 22.5N 125.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 22.9N 130.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 110.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

464
ABPZ20 KNHC 251131
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Jun 25 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Celia, located a few hundred miles south of the southern tip
of the Baja California Peninsula.

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form well offshore of
southern Mexico early next week. Environmental conditions could
support some slow development of this system thereafter as it moves
generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 24 Jun 2022 14:40:59 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 24 Jun 2022 15:23:01 GMT

Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 241439 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 900 AM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022 Little by little, Celia is becoming better organized. Deep-layer shear has decreased markedly from a few days ago, but the cyclone still appears to be in the process of mixing out some of the dry air that got into the circulation. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates now range from 55 to 65 kt, therefore Celia's estimated intensity is increased to 55 kt on this advisory. Celia is moving slowly toward the west-northwest (290/7 kt) to the south of a mid-level ridge that stretches across the southern United States and northern Mexico. The ridge is not particularly strong, however, and this pattern is likely to cause Celia to slow down further to around 5 kt during the next 12-24 hours. After 24 hours, the ridge is expected to strengthen and expand westward, causing Celia to gradually accelerate through day 5. The guidance envelope is tightly packed, and the updated NHC track forecast is unchanged from the 09z forecast. Shear diagnoses from the SHIPS model indicate that deep-layer shear is likely to be less than 10 kt during the entire 5-day forecast period. However, the limiting factor to Celia's intensity will be sea surface temperatures. Celia still has an opportunity to strengthen further, possibly to a hurricane, during the next 24 hours or so before it begins to cross the tight SST gradient near Socorro Island. Gradual weakening is forecast after 36 hours over colder waters, and Celia is likely to lose its deep convection and become post-tropical by day 4. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 17.1N 109.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 17.4N 109.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 17.9N 110.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 18.5N 111.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 19.1N 113.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 27/0000Z 19.6N 115.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 20.2N 117.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 28/1200Z 21.5N 122.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 29/1200Z 22.4N 126.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 241439 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Celia Advisory Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 900 AM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022 ...CELIA STRONGER AND COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 109.0W ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM SE OF SOCORRO ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Celia was located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 109.0 West. Celia is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). Celia is forecast to slow down later today and tonight but then gradually accelerate on a west-northwestward course late Saturday into Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Celia could become a hurricane tonight or on Saturday. Weakening is expected to begin Saturday night or Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells are affecting portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the southern Baja California peninsula and the coast of west-central Mexico today and Saturday. These conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

...CELIA STRONGER AND COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON SATURDAY... As of 9:00 AM MDT Fri Jun 24 the center of Celia was located near 17.1, -109.0 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUN 24 2022 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 241439 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022 1500 UTC FRI JUN 24 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 2 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 110W 34 2 10(12) 10(22) 3(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) ISLA SOCORRO 34 4 59(63) 23(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 8( 8) 25(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ISLA CLARION 34 1 1( 2) 7( 9) 24(33) 17(50) 1(51) X(51) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) X(14) X(14) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 20(26) 35(61) 1(62) X(62) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) X(22) X(22) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 19(26) 1(27) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUN 24 2022 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 241438 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022 1500 UTC FRI JUN 24 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 109.0W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 75SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 109.0W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 108.8W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 17.4N 109.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...130NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 17.9N 110.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.5N 111.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 19.1N 113.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 19.6N 115.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 20.2N 117.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 21.5N 122.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 22.4N 126.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 109.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241137
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Jun 24 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Celia, located a few hundred miles southwest of the coast of
southwestern Mexico.

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form well offshore of
southern Mexico early next week. Environmental conditions could
support some slow development of this system thereafter as it moves
generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 23 Jun 2022 14:39:26 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 23 Jun 2022 15:23:59 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUN 23 2022 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 231437 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022 1500 UTC THU JUN 23 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 105W 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MANZANILLO 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 1 4( 5) 10(15) 5(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) 20N 110W 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) 10(20) 7(27) 1(28) X(28) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 4( 4) 18(22) 32(54) 16(70) 1(71) X(71) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 14(29) X(29) X(29) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 35(40) 12(52) X(52) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 8(19) X(19) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 29(32) 22(54) 1(55) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 14(21) X(21) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 12(23) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Jun 23 2022 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 231437 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 900 AM MDT Thu Jun 23 2022 Celia is a bit of a conundrum. The strong east-northeasterly shear which was affecting the system over the past couple of days has lessened and turned out of the north, but the cyclone may have ingested so much dry air during that time that it's now struggling to produce much convection near its center. That said, new convection has recently been developing just to the east of the center. The initial intensity is being generously held at 45 kt, at the upper end of the estimate range, in the hopes that we'll get some scatterometer data later today. The storm's 12-hour motion is northwestward, or 315/11 kt, but there are signs it may be turning back to the west-northwest. There are no changes in the forecast track reasoning, with mid-level high pressure over northern Mexico still expected to drive Celia west-northwestward for the next 4 days or so. A westward turn is expected by day 5 as a weaker Celia is steered by lower-level winds. The biggest change this morning is that there is much tighter spread among the guidance, with the HWRF no longer a southern outlier as in previous days. Confidence in the track forecast is therefore higher than it had been. The big question for intensity is whether the dry air near the core can be mixed out and allow deep convection to organize near the center. The environment appears conducive for that to happen, with shear expected to be generally low and SSTs to be 26 degrees or higher for the next 2 days or so. The peak intensity in the NHC forecast has been lowered slightly due to time over warm waters being a limiting factor, but Celia still has the potential to become a hurricane during the next couple of days. Much colder waters and a more stable atmosphere should cause Celia to become post-tropical by day 5. The initial 12-foot seas radii have been adjusted and expanded significantly over Celia's eastern semicircle by TAFB based on data from a 0730 UTC Cryosat-2 pass. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 16.0N 106.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 16.6N 107.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 17.0N 108.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 17.3N 109.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 17.8N 110.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 26/0000Z 18.5N 112.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 19.1N 113.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 20.5N 117.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 28/1200Z 21.4N 122.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Berg

...CELIA HAS ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS... As of 9:00 AM MDT Thu Jun 23 the center of Celia was located near 16.0, -106.0 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Jun 23 2022 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 231437 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Celia Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 900 AM MDT Thu Jun 23 2022 ...CELIA HAS ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 106.0W ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM ESE OF SOCORRO ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Celia was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 106.0 West. Celia is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is expected later today, accompanied by a decrease in forward speed on Friday and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Celia could still become a hurricane by the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells are affecting portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the southern Baja California peninsula and the coast of west-central Mexico on Friday and Saturday. These conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

...CELIA HAS ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS... As of 9:00 AM MDT Thu Jun 23 the center of Celia was located near 16.0, -106.0 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUN 23 2022 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 231436 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022 1500 UTC THU JUN 23 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 106.0W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 106.0W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 105.6W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 16.6N 107.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 17.0N 108.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 17.3N 109.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...160NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 17.8N 110.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...160NE 110SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.5N 112.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...160NE 120SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 19.1N 113.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 110SE 90SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 20.5N 117.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 21.4N 122.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 106.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

049
ABPZ20 KNHC 231124
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Jun 23 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Celia, located a few hundred miles southwest of the coast of
southwestern Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg

049
ABPZ20 KNHC 231124
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Jun 23 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Celia, located a few hundred miles southwest of the coast of
southwestern Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg