National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022 441 WTPZ43 KNHC 221433 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022 Strong east-northeasterly shear has not yet abated, and Celia's center remains offset just to the northeast of the main area of deep convection. However, low-cloud lines with embedded convective cells have become more evident in microwave imagery, suggesting that the circulation has become a little more robust. Celia's estimated intensity remains 40 kt, with subjective and objective analyses ranging between 35 and 45 kt. Stronger-than-normal ridging over the south-central United States and northern Mexico continues to steer Celia toward the west-northwest, with a slightly slower motion of 295/10 kt. Even with this stable steering configuration, the track model spread is larger than normal during the first couple of days of the forecast, mainly because the HWRF remains a southern outlier and the GFS is slower than the main pack of models. Model spread is near or lower than normal on days 3 through 5. The updated NHC track forecast is a bit to the right and slower than the previous forecast and the model consensus aids, hedging toward the GFS and ECMWF on the right side of the guidance envelope. All in all, Celia should maintain a general west-northwestward heading through Monday. Model diagnoses indicate that the current magnitude of deep-layer shear should continue for another 6 to 12 hours and then drop to 10 kt or less by 24 hours. With an already-established low-level circulation and SSTs of about 28 degrees Celsius, the lower shear should allow Celia to intensify and reach hurricane strength in a couple of days. That opportunity will be relatively short lived, however, since the cyclone is likely to reach sub-26C waters in about 60 hours. After that time, gradual weakening is anticipated. The NHC intensity is unchanged from the previous forecast and is slightly above the intensity consensus aids during the middle part of the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 13.7N 103.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 14.3N 104.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 15.4N 106.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 16.1N 107.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 16.6N 108.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 25/0000Z 17.2N 110.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 17.9N 111.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 19.3N 114.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 27/1200Z 20.2N 118.1W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUN 22 2022 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 221433 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022 1500 UTC WED JUN 22 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 15N 105W 34 3 47(50) 2(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) 15N 105W 50 X 15(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) 15N 105W 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 21(25) 14(39) 1(40) X(40) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 17(21) 5(26) X(26) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 44(51) 10(61) X(61) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 5(25) X(25) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 33(41) 7(48) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 4(16) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 30(34) 12(46) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 221433 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Celia Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022 ...CELIA CRUISING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 103.7W ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Celia was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 103.7 West. Celia is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A general west-northwestward motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected through Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Celia is expected to become a hurricane by Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells will increase along portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico today and spread northward along the coast through Thursday. Swells could also reach southern portions of the Baja California peninsula by Friday. These conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

...CELIA CRUISING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 10:00 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 the center of Celia was located near 13.7, -103.7 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUN 22 2022 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 221432 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022 1500 UTC WED JUN 22 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 103.7W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 103.7W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 103.4W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 14.3N 104.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 15.4N 106.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 16.1N 107.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.6N 108.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 17.2N 110.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 110SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 17.9N 111.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 110SE 90SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 19.3N 114.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 20.2N 118.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 103.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

172
ABPZ20 KNHC 221135
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Jun 22 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Celia, located a few hundred miles south of the coast of
southwestern Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 21 Jun 2022 14:35:40 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 21 Jun 2022 15:22:43 GMT

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022 745 WTPZ43 KNHC 211434 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022 Deep convection has been increasing, but it remains confined to the west of the center of Celia due to about 20 kt of east-northeasterly shear. Even though the cyclone is still asymmetric, it does appear a little better organized than it was several hours ago. The latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin range from 30 to 45 kt, and the initial intensity is nudged up to 35 kt based on that data. This makes Celia a tropical storm once again. Celia is moving just south of due west, or 265 degrees, at 10 kt, and it is currently being steered by a mid-level ridge that is centered over the south-central U.S. A turn to the west-northwest is expected by tonight, and that motion should continue during the next several days as the storm moves within the flow on the southwest side of the ridge. Despite the fairly straightforward steering pattern, there remains a fair amount of spread in the guidance with the HWRF and UKMET models on the southern edge and the ECMWF model on the northern side. The NHC track forecast remains near the middle of the guidance envelope, in best agreement with the various consensus aids. Celia will likely strengthen at a slow pace during the next couple of days as the system remains in moderate to strong shear conditions. The overall environment looks best for Celia late this week and early this weekend, when the shear is expected to decrease and while SSTs beneath the system remain warm, and it will likely become a hurricane during that time. However, later in the weekend, the storm is expected to move over sub 26 C waters, which should end the strengthening trend and induce some weakening. The NHC intensity forecast lies at the low end of the guidance during the next 36-48 hours, but falls near the middle of the envelope beyond that. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 11.6N 99.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 12.0N 101.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 12.7N 103.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 13.4N 104.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 14.3N 106.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 24/0000Z 15.2N 107.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 24/1200Z 15.8N 108.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 25/1200Z 17.0N 111.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 26/1200Z 18.4N 114.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUN 21 2022 734 FOPZ13 KNHC 211433 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022 1500 UTC TUE JUN 21 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 105W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 105W 34 X 3( 3) 18(21) 23(44) 6(50) X(50) X(50) 15N 105W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) 15N 105W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 100W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 34(37) 18(55) 1(56) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 12(22) 1(23) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 5(18) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 23(30) 10(40) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 24(31) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 211433 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Celia Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022 ...CELIA BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.6N 99.5W ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Celia was located near latitude 11.6 North, longitude 99.5 West. Celia is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn to the west-northwest is expected by tonight, and that motion should continue during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected, and Celia is forecast to become a hurricane in a few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells will likely increase along portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico in a couple of days. These conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...CELIA BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN... As of 10:00 AM CDT Tue Jun 21 the center of Celia was located near 11.6, -99.5 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUN 21 2022 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 211432 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022 1500 UTC TUE JUN 21 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 99.5W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 99.5W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 98.9W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 12.0N 101.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 12.7N 103.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 13.4N 104.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.3N 106.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.2N 107.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.8N 108.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 17.0N 111.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 18.4N 114.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 99.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211112
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Jun 21 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Celia, located a few hundred miles south of the coast of
southern Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 20 Jun 2022 14:37:24 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 20 Jun 2022 15:22:33 GMT

Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Jun 20 2022 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 201436 TCDEP2 Post-Tropical Cyclone Blas Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022 900 AM MDT Mon Jun 20 2022 Geostationary satellite imagery indicates that Blas has been unable to produce organized deep convection near its center for almost 24 h. Although a couple of sporadic bursts of convection have occurred to its north this morning, this is not deemed enough to maintain its status as a tropical cyclone. Since the system has degenerated into a remnant low, this will be the final NHC advisory on Blas. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on a blend of Dvorak current intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB. The remnant low is moving westward at 275/4 kt, and it is forecast to continue moving slowly westward to west-northwestward over the next couple of days. This will bring the system over cooler waters and into a drier mid-level environment with increasing deep-layer southerly shear. Therefore, the remnant low is expected to gradually weaken and open into a trough by Wednesday. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 19.2N 113.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 21/0000Z 19.3N 114.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 21/1200Z 19.6N 115.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 22/0000Z 19.8N 116.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 22/1200Z 19.8N 116.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUN 20 2022 530 FOPZ12 KNHC 201435 PWSEP2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022022 1500 UTC MON JUN 20 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 34 3 9(12) 2(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Jun 20 2022 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 201435 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Blas Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022 900 AM MDT Mon Jun 20 2022 ...BLAS DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 113.6W ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Blas was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 113.6 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue until dissipation in a couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the remnant low is expected to open into a trough on Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...BLAS DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY... As of 9:00 AM MDT Mon Jun 20 the center of Blas was located near 19.2, -113.6 with movement W at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUN 20 2022 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 201434 TCMEP2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022022 1500 UTC MON JUN 20 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 113.6W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 113.6W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 113.3W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.3N 114.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 19.6N 115.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 19.8N 116.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 19.8N 116.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 113.6W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER REINHART

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