National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUN 14 2022 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 141457 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM BLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022022 1500 UTC TUE JUN 14 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 10N 105W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 105W 34 1 5( 6) 24(30) 36(66) 9(75) X(75) X(75) 15N 105W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 26(30) 8(38) X(38) X(38) 15N 105W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 6(18) X(18) X(18) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 4(12) 1(13) X(13) L CARDENAS 34 1 2( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) ZIHUATANEJO 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) 15N 100W 34 3 5( 8) 4(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) ACAPULCO 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 9(24) X(24) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 1(12) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 19(25) 2(27) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/BUCCI

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 141457 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Blas Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022 1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022 ...NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO STAY AWAY FROM THE COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.9N 102.1W ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Blas was located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 102.1 West. Blas is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h). Little movement is expected today, follow by a more steady motion toward the west-northwest through mid-week. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast, and Blas could become a hurricane late Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to reach the coast of southwestern Mexico late today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake/Bucci

...NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO STAY AWAY FROM THE COAST... As of 10:00 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 the center of Blas was located near 13.9, -102.1 with movement N at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUN 14 2022 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 141456 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM BLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022022 1500 UTC TUE JUN 14 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 102.1W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 102.1W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 102.1W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 14.2N 102.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 14.6N 102.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 14.9N 103.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.4N 104.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.0N 106.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 16.6N 108.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 17.9N 111.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 18.5N 114.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 102.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/BUCCI

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 141154
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Jun 14 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression Two-E, located a few hundred miles south of the
southwest coast of Mexico.

Off the coast of Central America:
Showers and thunderstorms off the coast of Central America
associated with a trough of low pressure have become better
organized overnight. Further development of this system is possible
while it drifts northwestward, and it could become a tropical
depression during the next couple of days. Environmental conditions
are forecast to become less conducive for development by the end of
the week. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are
possible across portions of Nicaragua, El Salvador, Guatemala, and
southern Mexico during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Two-E are issued under WMO header
WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Two-E are issued under WMO header
WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Bucci

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 131151
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Jun 13 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Off the coast of southwestern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of
the southwestern coast of Mexico is producing a large area of
showers and thunderstorms. While recent satellite-derived winds
indicate the low does not yet have a well-defined center,
environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional
development. A tropical depression is likely to form in the next day
or two while the system moves slowly northwestward off the
southwestern coast of Mexico. Additional information on this system,
including gale warnings, can be found in high seas forecasts issued
by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Off the coast of Central America:
A trough of low pressure has formed a couple of hundred miles
southwest of the coast of Nicaragua and is producing a disorganized
area of showers and thunderstorms. Some additional development of
this system is possible over the next few days as long as it remains
offshore, moving slowly northwestward near the coast of Central
America and southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Papin

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 121142
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Jun 12 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Off the coast of southwestern Mexico:
A broad low pressure area located a few hundred miles south of the
southwest coast of Mexico is producing a more concentrated area of
showers and thunderstorms this morning. Environmental conditions
are expected to become conducive for development of this system,
and a tropical depression is likely to form on Tuesday or Wednesday
while the system moves slowly northwestward off the southwestern
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Off the coast of Central America:
An area of low pressure is expected to form during the next few days
south or southwest off the coast of Central America. Subsequent
gradual development of this system is possible as it moves slowly
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 111134
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Jun 11 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Off the coast of southwestern Mexico:
A broad low pressure area located a couple of hundred miles south of
the southern coast of Mexico is producing some disorganized shower
activity. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the early or middle part of next week while
the system meanders off the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

826
ABPZ20 KNHC 101138
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Jun 10 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Off the coast of southwestern Mexico:
A broad and elongated area of low pressure off the coast of
southwestern Mexico is producing limited shower and thunderstorm
activity. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form early next week while the system meanders off the
southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

826
ABPZ20 KNHC 101138
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Jun 10 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Off the coast of southwestern Mexico:
A broad and elongated area of low pressure off the coast of
southwestern Mexico is producing limited shower and thunderstorm
activity. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form early next week while the system meanders off the
southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 091133
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Jun 9 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Off the coast of southwestern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form off the coast of
southwestern Mexico over the next couple of days. Gradual
development of this system is possible thereafter, and a tropical
depression could form this weekend or early next week while it
meanders off the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 081133
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Jun 8 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Off the coast of southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form off the coast of
southern Mexico in a couple of days. Gradual development of this
system is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form
this weekend or early next week while it moves little or drifts
northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 071136
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Jun 7 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 061102
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Jun 6 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 051126
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Jun 5 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

746
ABPZ20 KNHC 041120
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Jun 4 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Roberts

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031125
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Jun 3 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Bucci

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 021134
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Jun 2 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Bucci

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011140
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Jun 1 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Bucci

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 31 May 2022 14:44:29 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 31 May 2022 15:20:29 GMT