National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 13 2023 669 WTPZ42 KNHC 132037 TCDEP2 Hurricane Fernanda Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072023 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 13 2023 Satellite imagery indicates that small Fernanda has been strengthening rapidly today. A faint eye has become apparent on visible satellite imagery, and outer banding features are becoming better defined. Since the presence of a visible eye is usually a good indicator that a tropical cyclone has become a hurricane, the system is being upgraded on this advisory. This intensity is also in agreement with a Dvorak classification from SAB. The upper-level outflow pattern has also become more symmetric over the circulation. Fernanda continues moving west-northwestward at a slightly slower pace with an estimated motion of 285/8 kt. The mid-level ridge to the north of the tropical cyclone is currently rather weak due to the presence of a cutoff low near the California coast. Over the next few days, the ridge to the north of Fernanda is forecast to strengthen as the influence of the cutoff low lessens. As a result, the system should move somewhat faster to the west-northwest during the next 72 hours or so while turning westward later in the forecast period. The official track forecast remains very close to the previous one and is also very similar to the dynamical model consensus aid TVCE. The hurricane should continue to pass over SSTs of around 29 deg C for the next day or two while remaining in a very low vertical shear environment. The rapid intensification (RI) indices such as SHIPS, RII, and DTOPS continue to show a good chance of RI continuing over the next day or so. Thus, the official forecast will again call for RI over the next 24 hours. However, in about 48 hours, drier mid-level air should halt the strengthening process. The numerical guidance is in good agreement that Fernanda will steadily weaken in 2-5 days, and this is reflected in the NHC intensity forecast, which is fairly close to the latest corrected consensus prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 15.5N 116.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 15.8N 117.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 16.2N 119.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 16.7N 120.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 17.3N 122.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 16/0600Z 17.5N 124.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 17.7N 127.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 17/1800Z 18.0N 132.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 18/1800Z 18.0N 138.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 13 2023 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 132037 PWSEP2 HURRICANE FERNANDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072023 2100 UTC SUN AUG 13 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FERNANDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 X 17(17) 21(38) 3(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) 15N 120W 50 X 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 120W 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 12(18) 1(19) X(19) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 20(26) 1(27) X(27) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) X(11) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 17(24) X(24) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 13 2023 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 132036 TCMEP2 HURRICANE FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072023 2100 UTC SUN AUG 13 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 116.5W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 116.5W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 116.1W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 15.8N 117.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.2N 119.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.7N 120.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.3N 122.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.5N 124.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.7N 127.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 18.0N 132.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 18.0N 138.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 116.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 13 2023 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 132036 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Fernanda Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072023 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 13 2023 ...FERNANDA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 116.5W ABOUT 670 MI...1075 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fernanda was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 116.5 West. Fernanda is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or so. Fernanda is a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...FERNANDA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A HURRICANE... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sun Aug 13 the center of Fernanda was located near 15.5, -116.5 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 131736
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Aug 13 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fernanda, located several hundred miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Western East Pacific (EP99):
Showers and thunderstorms are becoming better organized in
association with an area of low pressure located about 1400 miles
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for continued development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the next day or so as it moves
westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. The system is
forecast to cross into the Central Pacific basin late tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Off the Coast of Southern Mexico:
A tropical wave continues to produce a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over the far eastern portion of the east
Pacific. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development
during the next several days, and a tropical depression is expected
to form by midweek while the system moves west-northwestward,
roughly parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 12 Aug 2023 20:37:23 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 12 Aug 2023 21:22:57 GMT

Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Aug 12 2023 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 122034 TCDEP2 Tropical Depression Seven-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072023 300 PM MDT Sat Aug 12 2023 Satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has attained sufficient organization to be classified as a tropical depression. The last couple of microwave satellite overpasses show a similar scenario, with cold convective curved bands becoming better organized around a low-level center, which appears to be located near the northern edge of the convective cloud mass based on recent visible satellite images. The latest TAFB subjective Dvorak estimate is T-2.0. Based on these data, Invest 98E is upgraded to Tropical Depression Seven-E with an initial intensity of 30 kt. Weak mid-level ridging well to the north of the depression will steer the cyclone toward the west-northwest at about 10 kt over the next few days. Beyond 72 h, the ridge should strengthen enough to cause a turn to the west with a slight increase in forward speed. The NHC forecast track is in best agreement with the HCCA and TVCE consensus models. Environmental conditions are quite favorable for strengthening over the next 48-60 h, with warm ocean temperatures, low vertical wind shear and a relatively moist low to mid-level troposphere. The NHC forecast peaks the system at 75 kt in 48-60 h, which is near the middle of the intensity guidance. The ECMWF version of the SHIPS RI index shows a 52 percent chance of a 65 kt increase in winds over the next 72 h, so there is a chance the cyclone could strengthen more than forecast. After that time, the cyclone is forecast to move into a much drier environment along with slowly decreasing sea-surface temperatures. There is high confidence on significant weakening beyond 72 h due to the very dry airmass that the cyclone will be moving into. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 14.9N 113.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 15.2N 114.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 15.5N 115.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 15.7N 117.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 16.1N 119.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 15/0600Z 16.6N 120.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 17.1N 122.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 16/1800Z 17.6N 127.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 17/1800Z 17.8N 133.1W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Hagen/Berg

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 12 2023 943 FOPZ12 KNHC 122033 PWSEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072023 2100 UTC SAT AUG 12 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 115W 34 23 54(77) X(77) 1(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) 15N 115W 50 1 14(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) 15N 115W 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 36(47) 12(59) X(59) X(59) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 9(20) X(20) X(20) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 8(15) 1(16) X(16) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 8(19) X(19) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 13(21) X(21) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/BERG

Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Aug 12 2023 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 122033 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Seven-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072023 300 PM MDT Sat Aug 12 2023 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE OPEN EAST PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 113.2W ABOUT 595 MI...955 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seven-E was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 113.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is expected, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight and a hurricane in a couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Berg

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE OPEN EAST PACIFIC... As of 3:00 PM MDT Sat Aug 12 the center of Seven-E was located near 14.9, -113.2 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 12 2023 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 122032 TCMEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072023 2100 UTC SAT AUG 12 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 113.2W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 113.2W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 112.6W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 15.2N 114.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 15.5N 115.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 15.7N 117.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.1N 119.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.6N 120.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.1N 122.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 17.6N 127.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 17.8N 133.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 113.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/BERG

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 121737
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Aug 12 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central East Pacific (EP98):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized in
association with a low pressure system located several hundred
miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula, and it appears that a tropical depression or tropical
storm could be forming. If these trends continue, advisories would
likely be initiated on this system later today. The low is expected
to move westward to west-northwestward at about 10 mph across the
central portion of the basin during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Western East Pacific (EP99):
A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms
well to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Conditions
appear conducive for development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the next few days while moving
toward the west or west-northwest at about 10 mph across the far
western portion of the basin, crossing into the Central Pacific
basin late Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Off the Coast of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of Central
America and the southern coast of Mexico in a couple of days from
a tropical wave currently moving across the southern portion of
Central America. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression
is likely to form during the early or middle part of next week while
it moves generally west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast
of southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg/Hagen

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 121737
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Aug 12 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central East Pacific (EP98):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized in
association with a low pressure system located several hundred
miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula, and it appears that a tropical depression or tropical
storm could be forming. If these trends continue, advisories would
likely be initiated on this system later today. The low is expected
to move westward to west-northwestward at about 10 mph across the
central portion of the basin during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Western East Pacific (EP99):
A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms
well to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Conditions
appear conducive for development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the next few days while moving
toward the west or west-northwest at about 10 mph across the far
western portion of the basin, crossing into the Central Pacific
basin late Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Off the Coast of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of Central
America and the southern coast of Mexico in a couple of days from
a tropical wave currently moving across the southern portion of
Central America. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression
is likely to form during the early or middle part of next week while
it moves generally west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast
of southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg/Hagen

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 111738
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Aug 11 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central East Pacific (EP98):
Visible satellite images indicate that the circulation associated
with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest
of Manzanillo, Mexico, is becoming better defined. However, the
associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized.
Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this
weekend or early next week while it moves westward or northwestward
at about 10 mph across the central portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Western East Pacific:
Another tropical wave located well to the southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Conditions appear conducive
for development of this system, and a tropical depression could form
during the next few days while moving toward the west or
west-northwest at about 10 mph across the far western portion of the
basin, crossing into the Central Pacific basin on Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Off the Coast of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of Central
America and the southern coast of Mexico in a few days.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the early or middle part of next week while it moves
generally west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of
southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 101836
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Aug 10 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central East Pacific:
A tropical wave continues to produce a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms several hundred miles south-southwest of
the coast of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week
while it moves westward at about 15 mph across the central portion
of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Western East Pacific:
Another tropical wave located well to the southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing some disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is
possible during the next several days while it moves generally
westward at 10 to 15 mph across the far western portion of the basin
and into the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Off the Coast of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of Central
America in a few days. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form during the early or middle part of next week
while it moves generally west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the
coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 091738
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Aug 9 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central East Pacific:
A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms several hundred miles south of the coast of
southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form by the weekend or early next week while it
moves generally westward at about 15 mph across the central portion
of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Western East Pacific:
Another tropical wave located well to the southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing some disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions could support
some gradual development of this system during the next several days
as it moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph across the far
western portion of the basin and into the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Off the Coast of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop early next week
offshore of Central America. Some gradual development of this system
is possible during the early and middle parts of next week as it
moves generally west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast
of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 081730
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Aug 8 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form late this week several hundred
miles south or southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Some
gradual development of this system is possible thereafter, and a
tropical depression could form over the weekend while it moves
generally westward across the central portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 07 Aug 2023 20:37:25 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 07 Aug 2023 21:29:25 GMT

Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Aug 07 2023 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 072036 TCDEP1 Post-Tropical Cyclone Eugene Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062023 200 PM PDT Mon Aug 07 2023 Eugene has not had any organized deep convection for over 12 hours now, and since it is over very cold water, no further thunderstorm activity is anticipated. Thus, Eugene has transitioned into a post-tropical cyclone, and this is the last NHC advisory. The initial wind speed is reduced to 30 kt, in accordance with the remaining Dvorak estimates. The system should gradually spin down and become a trough of low pressure in about 2 days. The remnants of Eugene should turn northward tomorrow into a break in the low- level ridge and slow down as it gets caught in weak steering flow. No significant changes were made to the NHC track or intensity forecasts. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 25.1N 120.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 08/0600Z 25.7N 121.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 08/1800Z 26.3N 122.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 09/0600Z 27.0N 122.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 09/1800Z 27.8N 121.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake