National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

...BONNIE STRENGTHENING... ...BRINGING ROUGH SURF AND THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS TO PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... As of 10:00 AM CDT Mon Jul 4 the center of Bonnie was located near 13.7, -99.0 with movement WNW at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 982 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031713
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Jul 3 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Bonnie, located a couple of hundred miles south of southern
Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 03 Jul 2022 14:47:04 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 03 Jul 2022 15:22:41 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUL 03 2022 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 031445 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022 1500 UTC SUN JUL 03 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE COASTS OF GUATEMALA AND SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 92.4W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 92.4W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 91.7W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 12.5N 94.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 13.3N 97.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 14.1N 100.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 14.9N 103.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 15.4N 105.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.7N 108.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 16.2N 112.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 17.0N 117.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 92.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 031435 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022 1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022 Bonnie appears to be gradually gaining strength. Satellite images show a strong convective band, with a significant amount of lightning, on the western side of the system. Recent microwave data indicate than an inner core is becoming better established, with hints of an eye apparent in the 37 GHz channel. The latest Dvorak classifications were both 3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB, and the initial intensity is nudged up to 55 kt based on that data. The storm is currently experiencing a moderate amount of easterly shear, but that is expected to let up some during the next day or so. The improving upper-level wind pattern combined with a moist air mass and warm SSTs should allow Bonnie to steadily strengthen through Monday. Rapid intensification is a possibility, and the SHIPS model shows a fair chance (40 percent) of that occurring within the next 24 hours. In a couple of days, however, easterly shear is expected to increase and SSTs gradually cool beneath the system. These factors should end the strengthening trend and perhaps induce slow weakening. The NHC intensity forecast shows a faster rate of strengthening than the previous one in the short term, but is otherwise unchanged. Bonnie is still moving relatively quickly westward at 280/14 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should steer Bonnie westward to west-northwestward during the next several days, roughly parallel to the coast of southern Mexico. The track models are in good agreement, and the new forecast lies close to the various consensus aids. Based on the forecast, no watches are required for Guatemala or southern/southwestern Mexico, but interests there should closely monitor updates, as a northward adjustment to the track could require tropical storm watches for portions of this coastline. The main impact from Bonnie is expected to be rough surf and the potential for rip currents along the coast of Guatemala today and southern/southwestern Mexico Monday and Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 11.9N 92.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 12.5N 94.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 13.3N 97.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 14.1N 100.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 14.9N 103.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 06/0000Z 15.4N 105.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 15.7N 108.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 16.2N 112.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 08/1200Z 17.0N 117.3W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUL 03 2022 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 031434 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022 1500 UTC SUN JUL 03 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 105W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 15N 105W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 33(35) 49(84) X(84) X(84) 15N 105W 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 42(48) X(48) X(48) 15N 105W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) X(25) X(25) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) 10N 100W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 100W 34 X 2( 2) 69(71) 4(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) 15N 100W 50 X X( X) 23(23) 4(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) 15N 100W 64 X X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) ACAPULCO 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) P MALDONADO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P ANGEL 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 95W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 36(63) 1(64) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 25(29) 1(30) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 1(15) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) 2(25) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 26(38) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 26(40) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 031434 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Bonnie Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022 1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022 ...BONNIE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING... ...AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND ROUGH SURF AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE GUATEMALA AND THE SOUTHERN MEXICO COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.9N 92.4W ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM S OF TAPACHULA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the coasts of Guatemala and southern and southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 92.4 West. Bonnie is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion should continue for the next several days. On the forecast track, the core of Bonnie is expected to remain south, but move parallel to, the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and Bonnie is expected to become a hurricane tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The outer rain bands of Bonnie could cause areas of heavy rainfall during the next couple of days across portions of Guatemala, and southern and southwestern Mexico. SURF: Swells generated by Bonnie will affect portions of the coasts of Guatemala, and southern and southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...BONNIE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING... ...AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND ROUGH SURF AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE GUATEMALA AND THE SOUTHERN MEXICO COAST... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sun Jul 3 the center of Bonnie was located near 11.9, -92.4 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 021553 CCA TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Bonnie Advisory Number 20...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022 1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022 ...BONNIE MOVES OFFSHORE OF NICARAGUA... ...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE IN BOTH NICARAGUA AND NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA... Corrected Advisory Number SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.2N 86.4W ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM S OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM NW OF CABO BLANCO COSTA RICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Nicaragua has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning on the Caribbean coast. The government of Costa Rica has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning on the Caribbean coast. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cabo Blanco Costa Rica northward to the border of Nicaragua and Honduras A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next few hours. Interests along the Pacific coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico should monitor the progress of Bonnie. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was located near latitude 11.2 North, longitude 86.4 West. Bonnie is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through the day today. A turn to the west-northwest is expected tonight, and that motion should continue for the next several days. Bonnie is expected to move away from Nicaragua and parallel to the coasts of Central America and southern Mexico for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, after which Bonnie is expected to become a hurricane. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Bonnie can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Bonnie will continue to produce heavy rain across portions of Nicaragua and Costa Rica today. The following storm total rainfall amounts are expected: Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 4 to 8 inches, localized 12 inches. This rainfall is expected to result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica, and these will likely continue for several more hours. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Hogsett/Cangialosi

...BONNIE MOVES OFFSHORE OF NICARAGUA... ...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE IN BOTH NICARAGUA AND NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sat Jul 2 the center of Bonnie was located near 11.2, -86.4 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 02 2022 ZCZC MIAPWSEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022 1500 UTC SAT JUL 02 2022 CORRECTED ADVISORY NUMBER AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 41(50) 1(51) 15N 105W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) X(20) 15N 105W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 3(13) X(13) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13) X(13) 10N 100W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 100W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 48(50) 1(51) X(51) 15N 100W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) X(17) X(17) 15N 100W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ACAPULCO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) X(15) P MALDONADO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) P ANGEL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) HUATULCO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 10N 95W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 95W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) P SAN JOSE 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 10N 90W 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 28(39) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER HOGSETT NNNN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 02 Jul 2022 15:43:35 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 02 Jul 2022 15:43:35 GMT

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022 686 WTPZ44 KNHC 021501 CCA TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number 20...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022 1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022 Corrected advisory number Radar data from the Nicaraguan Weather Service in Las Nubes indicate that Bonnie has moved offshore from extreme southern Nicaragua and becomes one of the rare tropical cyclones to cross from the Atlantic Basin into the eastern Pacific Basin. The center of circulation remains well-defined after crossing southern Nicaragua last night, and satellite data during the last several hours indicate that deep convection remains active near the center of the storm. Given the robust structure apparent on radar and satellite, the initial intensity is held steady at 35 kt for this advisory, despite the land interactions during the past 12 hours or so. Bonnie is moving due west at 270/14 kt. The primary steering influence throughout the forecast period is a deep-layer ridge located north of the storm, which is expected to cause Bonnie to track west-northwestward and remain offshore and roughly parallel to the coast of Central America and Mexico. Track guidance is in good agreement throughout the forecast period, and the official forecast is very similar to the consensus track aids and the prior forecast. Although the strongest winds are expected to remain offshore, interests in coastal El Salvador, Guatemala, and southwestern Mexico should continue to monitor Bonnie's track for the next few days, as any northward track adjustments could require tropical storm watches for portions of this coastline. While the well-defined structure indicates that some strengthening is possible in the next day or so, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are only marginally conducive for intensification and confined to a relatively shallow depth. For this reason, intensification is forecast to occur slowly for the next 24 hours until Bonnie reaches warmer waters in about 36 hours, after which the rate of intensification is forecast to increase. Similar to the previous forecast, Bonnie is expected to reach hurricane strength in about three days, and the intensity forecast is near the center of the guidance envelope. In association with Bonnie crossing into the eastern Pacific, product headers for Bonnie have changed to eastern Pacific headers beginning with this advisory, with the ATCF identifier changing from AL022022 to EP042022. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall across portions of Nicaragua and Costa Rica will continue today. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the Pacific coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua within the Tropical Storm Warning areas for the next several hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 11.2N 86.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 11.3N 88.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 11.7N 90.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 12.5N 93.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 13.4N 96.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 05/0000Z 14.3N 99.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 15.1N 102.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 06/1200Z 16.0N 107.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 07/1200Z 16.6N 111.7W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Hogsett

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 02 2022 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 021457 CCA TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022 1500 UTC SAT JUL 02 2022 CORRECTED ADVISORY NUMBER CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ON THE CARIBBEAN COAST. THE GOVERNMENT OF COSTA RICA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ON THE CARIBBEAN COAST. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO BLANCO COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTS OF EL SALVADOR...GUATEMALA...AND SOUTHERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BONNIE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 86.4W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 86.4W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 85.8W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 11.3N 88.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 11.7N 90.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 12.5N 93.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 13.4N 96.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 14.3N 99.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 15.1N 102.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 16.0N 107.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 16.6N 111.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.2N 86.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 02/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER HOGSETT/CANGIALOSI

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 021110
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Jul 2 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Atlantic
basin Tropical Storm Bonnie currently located inland near the
Nicaragua/Costa Rica border. The system is forecast to complete
crossing Central America and move into the east Pacific basin, as a
tropical cyclone, later today.

Central East Pacific:
Showers and thunderstorms have largely dissipated in association
with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Development
of this system is not expected as it is already over cool waters
and in a dry environment.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Cangialosi

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011137
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Jul 1 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Atlantic
basin Potential Tropical Cyclone Two, currently located over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea. The system is forecast to cross Central
America and move into the east Pacific basin, as a tropical cyclone,
on Saturday.

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
Satellite data from several hours ago indicate that the area of low
pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula still did not have a
well-defined circulation. The associated showers and thunderstorms
have generally changed little during the past several hours, and
the system only has about another day to become a short-lived
tropical depression before it reaches cooler waters and a dry air
mass while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Hogsett

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301142
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Jun 30 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Atlantic
basin Potential Tropical Cyclone Two, currently located over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea. The system is forecast to cross Central
America and move into the east Pacific basin, as a tropical cyclone,
over the weekend.

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
continue to show some signs of organization. However, overnight
satellite-derived wind data indicate that this system lacks a
well-defined circulation. A tropical depression could still form
during the next day or two as the disturbance moves to the
west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph, before it reaches cooler waters on
Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/D. Zelinsky

147
ABPZ20 KNHC 291146
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Jun 29 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Atlantic
basin Potential Tropical Cyclone Two, currently located over the
eastern Caribbean Sea, just north of Venezuela. The system is
forecast to cross Central America and move into the east Pacific
basin, as a tropical cyclone, over the weekend.

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a disturbance
located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the coast of
southwestern Mexico has increased overnight. However,
satellite-derived wind data from late yesterday indicated that the
system does not have a well-defined center of circulation.
Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for
development during the next couple of days, and a tropical
depression is likely to form while the system moves generally
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph through the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 28 Jun 2022 14:49:22 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 28 Jun 2022 15:31:07 GMT

Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Jun 28 2022 109 WTPZ43 KNHC 281448 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Celia Discussion Number 48 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 800 AM PDT Tue Jun 28 2022 The slow but steady decay of Celia has continued this morning. The coldest cloud tops near the center of Celia have warmed to around -40 deg C, a sign that it is no longer producing organized deep convection. The depression is moving over water colder than 22 deg C, so further decay is inevitable. It is likely that Celia will become a post-tropical remnant low later today. The estimated intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory. Weakening is likely during the next few days while Celia is steered west-northwestward by a ridge extending southwest from the southwestern United States. Various dynamical models indicate that Celia will dissipate into a trough in about 2-3 days. No changes of note were made to the NHC forecast, which is near the multi-model consensus for both track and intensity. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 22.3N 120.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 23.0N 121.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 29/1200Z 23.7N 123.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 30/0000Z 24.2N 125.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 30/1200Z 24.6N 126.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky