National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E FORMS IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN... As of 11:00 AM HST Fri Sep 15 the center of Twelve-E was located near 15.1, -136.2 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Issued at 1100 AM HST Fri Sep 15 2023 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 152033 TCDEP2 Tropical Depression Twelve-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122023 Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 1100 AM HST Fri Sep 15 2023 The tropical disturbance that we've been watching for a few days had a burst of vigorous deep convection overnight. Overnight microwave passes and satellite imagery over the last 24 hours have shown increased organization at times in the convective banding. The deep convection now appears to be persistent and organized enough to classify this system as a tropical depression. A blend of satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and CPHC suggest initiating advisories for this system with an intensity of 25 kt. More recently, visible satellite imagery is showing the low level center has emerged from the higher clouds associated with the convection. UW-CIMSS shear analysis indicates that Tropical Depression 12E is embedded within the southern periphery of a belt of stronger westerly shear, associated with the subtropical jet stream to the north. The depression is not likely to last long, as global models indicate the subtropical jet will sag south a bit over the next couple of days, maintaining westerly shear over the system. Simulated satellite imagery from the global models suggests that occasional pulses of deep convection may continue for a day or so as the system is steered toward the west-southwest by the trade wind flow to the south of a strengthening subtropical ridge. The track forecast most closely follows the TVCN until the system becomes a remnant low far to the east-southeast of Hawaii. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 15.1N 136.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 15.0N 137.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 14.8N 138.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 14.7N 140.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/1800Z 14.5N 141.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster R Ballard

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 15 2023 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 152032 TCMEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122023 ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 2100 UTC FRI SEP 15 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 136.2W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 136.2W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 135.8W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.0N 137.2W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 14.8N 138.6W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.7N 140.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 14.5N 141.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 136.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER R BALLARD

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 151718
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Sep 15 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Western East Pacific (EP94):
Showers and thunderstorms have increased and become better organized
on the east side of an area of low pressure located about 1300 miles
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. If these trends continue, a
short-lived tropical depression will likely form later today while
it moves generally west-northwestward at about 10 mph. Environmental
conditions are expected to become unfavorable over the weekend,
ending the system's chances for additional development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Bucci

485
ABPZ20 KNHC 141728
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Sep 14 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Western East Pacific (EP94):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located well to the west-southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula are gradually becoming better
organized. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the next day or so while it moves west-northwestward to
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the western portion of the
eastern Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

374
ABPZ20 KNHC 131746
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Sep 13 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Western East Pacific (EP94):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located well to the southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California Peninsula are showing some signs of organization.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next
couple of days or so while it moves west-northwestward to
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. By the weekend, upper-level winds are
forecast to become less favorable for additional development while
the system moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 121738
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Sep 12 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Western East Pacific:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located well southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula has increased today, but remains disorganized. Some
additional development of this system is expected during the next
few days as the system moves generally northwestward, and a tropical
depression could form later this week. The system is then forecast
to turn westward over the weekend, at which time further development
is not anticipated.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 111733
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Sep 11 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 10 Sep 2023 20:38:12 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 10 Sep 2023 21:36:27 GMT

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Sep 10 2023 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 102036 TCDEP1 Post-Tropical Cyclone Jova Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023 200 PM PDT Sun Sep 10 2023 Jova has been devoid of deep convection for roughly 12 hours or so. The overall cloud pattern continues to become disheveled, as the system gradually spins down. Given that the system has not been producing convection for some time now, it no longer meets the definition of a tropical cyclone. Therefore, Jova has degenerated into a post-tropical remnant low. The initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt for this advisory, based on a recent scatterometer pass which is in agreement with the latest subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates. Jova will continue to spin down for the next couple of days as it remains a remnant low, before opening up into a trough in about 72 h. No significant changes were made to the official forecast, which lies near the consensus intensity aids. Jova's initial motion is estimated to be northwestward at 5 kt, A gradual turn toward the west and west-southwest, with an increase in forward motion is forecast. The NHC forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope, near the model consensus. This is the last advisory on this system from the National Hurricane Center. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN02 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 24.8N 127.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 11/0600Z 25.0N 128.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 11/1800Z 24.8N 129.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/0600Z 24.2N 131.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/1800Z 23.3N 133.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 13/0600Z 22.3N 135.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 10 2023 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 102036 PWSEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOVA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112023 2100 UTC SUN SEP 10 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOVA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 130W 34 X 11(11) 4(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) $$ FORECASTER KELLY

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 10 2023 400 WTPZ21 KNHC 102035 TCMEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112023 2100 UTC SUN SEP 10 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 127.8W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..105NE 60SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 127.8W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 127.6W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 25.0N 128.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 24.8N 129.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 24.2N 131.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.3N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 22.3N 135.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.8N 127.8W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDERAWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER KELLY

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 10 2023 400 WTPZ21 KNHC 102035 TCMEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112023 2100 UTC SUN SEP 10 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 127.8W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..105NE 60SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 127.8W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 127.6W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 25.0N 128.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 24.8N 129.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 24.2N 131.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.3N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 22.3N 135.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.8N 127.8W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDERAWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER KELLY

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Sep 10 2023 399 WTPZ31 KNHC 102035 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Jova Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023 200 PM PDT Sun Sep 10 2023 ...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALONG THE COASTS OF CALIFORNIA AND MEXICO... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY AS JOVA BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.8N 127.8W ABOUT 1135 MI...1830 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Jova was located near latitude 24.8 North, longitude 127.8 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A gradual turn toward the west and west-southwest is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Jova has become a remnant low and will continue to gradually spin down. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Jova are affecting the western coast of Mexico and are occuring along portions of the coast of California. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions through Monday. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Sep 10 2023 399 WTPZ31 KNHC 102035 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Jova Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023 200 PM PDT Sun Sep 10 2023 ...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALONG THE COASTS OF CALIFORNIA AND MEXICO... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY AS JOVA BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.8N 127.8W ABOUT 1135 MI...1830 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Jova was located near latitude 24.8 North, longitude 127.8 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A gradual turn toward the west and west-southwest is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Jova has become a remnant low and will continue to gradually spin down. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Jova are affecting the western coast of Mexico and are occuring along portions of the coast of California. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions through Monday. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Kelly

...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALONG THE COASTS OF CALIFORNIA AND MEXICO... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY AS JOVA BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sun Sep 10 the center of Jova was located near 24.8, -127.8 with movement NW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 101716
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Sep 10 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jova, located a little over one thousand miles west of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 09 Sep 2023 20:35:31 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 09 Sep 2023 21:35:39 GMT

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 09 2023 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 092034 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Jova Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 09 2023 Jova's convection continues to dissipate this afternoon, with only a few bursts in the inner core. Microwave imagery from SSMI/S depicts decreased convective banding and the overall structure of the system continues to deteriorate as well. A blend of subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates suggest an intensity of 45 kt, which is the initial intensity for this advisory. Jova is forecast to continue weakening for the next few days as the system moves over cool sea surface temperatures, and into a stable air mass. Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF models suggest Jova will be devoid of deep convection and become a remnant low in about 36 hours, and this is reflected in the NHC intensity forecast. The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward at 8 kt. Jova should continue to move generally toward the northwest around the edge of a subtropical ridge during the next day or so. As Jova weakens, the system is forecast to turn westward to west-southwestward within the low-level flow through the end of the forecast period. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous forecast track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 22.9N 126.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 23.6N 127.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 24.3N 127.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 24.6N 128.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 11/1800Z 24.4N 129.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 12/0600Z 24.0N 130.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/1800Z 23.1N 133.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 09 2023 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 092033 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM JOVA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112023 2100 UTC SAT SEP 09 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOVA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) $$ FORECASTER KELLY