National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 22 Sep 2022 14:48:47 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 22 Sep 2022 15:35:18 GMT

Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Sep 22 2022 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 221446 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Newton Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022 900 AM MDT Thu Sep 22 2022 Newton remains a small, well-organized tropical cyclone. A microwave pass from 1210 UTC revealed a tiny eye-like feature. While the central dense overcast has warmed, upper-level outflow is still prominent in the southern and eastern portions of the circulation, and new deep convection continues to form in the core. There is still a relatively large range of satellite intensity estimates (35-55 kt), likely due to the small size of the cyclone, but the initial intensity is raised to 55 kt with the improved microwave structure. The storm is moving west-northwestward at 7 kt. A ridge to the northeast is steering Newton and should be the dominant synoptic feature influencing the track for the next few days. The track prediction is largely unchanged from the previous advisory and in the center of the tightly clustered model guidance. The intensity forecast for this system remains somewhat uncertain. Global model guidance has largely missed the development and intensification of Newton, again, possibly due to its size. Statistical guidance suggests the cyclone will be in a conducive atmospheric environment for the next 24 hours before the vertical wind shear increases and mid-level moisture begins to decrease further. Sea surface temperatures are expected to also gradually decrease as Newton moves near the cold wake of Kay and Madeline. The official intensity forecast keeps Newton at 55 kt before weakening begins in 24 hours through the end of the forecast as oceanic and atmospheric conditions become less favorable. The prediction still shows Newton as a post-tropical remnant low by 72 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 17.9N 108.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 18.1N 109.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 18.4N 110.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 19.0N 112.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 19.4N 114.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 25/0000Z 19.6N 115.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 25/1200Z 19.8N 117.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 22 2022 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 221445 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM NEWTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152022 1500 UTC THU SEP 22 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NEWTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 110W 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 56(58) 10(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 11(11) 7(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 6(17) X(17) X(17) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 13(15) 12(27) X(27) X(27) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 22 2022 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 221445 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM NEWTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152022 1500 UTC THU SEP 22 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 108.4W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 108.4W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 108.1W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 18.1N 109.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 18.4N 110.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 19.0N 112.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 19.4N 114.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 19.6N 115.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 19.8N 117.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 108.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Sep 22 2022 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 221445 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Newton Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022 900 AM MDT Thu Sep 22 2022 ...SMALL NEWTON MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 108.4W ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Newton was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 108.4 West. Newton is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Newton is forecast to maintain its strength for a day followed by gradually weakening through the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Bucci

...SMALL NEWTON MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 9:00 AM MDT Thu Sep 22 the center of Newton was located near 17.9, -108.4 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211754
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM PDT Wed Sep 21 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure just offshore of southwestern Mexico have changed little
in organization today. A short-lived tropical depression is likely
to form during the next day or so before the system moves over
cooler waters and into a drier environment. This system is expected
to move west-northwestward just south of southwestern Mexico over
the next day or so, and then move away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Wegman/Carbin

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201736
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM PDT Tue Sep 20 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on
recently downgraded Tropical Depression Madeline, located a couple
of hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.

1. South of Southwestern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure is producing disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity just off the coast of southwestern Mexico.
Some slow development of this system is possible while the
disturbance moves slowly west-northwestward near the coast of
southwestern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

2. South of Southern Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area
of low pressure just offshore of southern Mexico remain
disorganized. Development, if any, of this system should be
slow to occur while it meanders off the coast of southern
Mexico through the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Pereira/Montgomery

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 20 Sep 2022 14:43:22 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 20 Sep 2022 15:36:06 GMT

Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue Sep 20 2022 186 WTPZ44 KNHC 201443 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Madeline Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142022 900 AM MDT Tue Sep 20 2022 Madeline is close to becoming a post-tropical cyclone, having produced little deep convection overnight. Satellite intensity estimates continue to decrease and, based on these and the earlier scatterometer data, the initial intensity has been lowered to 30 kt. The storm is predicted to become a post-tropical cyclone in 12 hours or less due to persistent shear, dry air and cool waters. It is possible Madeline will produce occasional short-lived bursts of convection after it moves away from the cooler ocean waters stirred up by Kay. However, model guidance suggests this convective activity will not be enough to redevelop Madeline as a tropical system. The remnant low is expected to open up into a trough by the end of the forecast period. Madeline is moving west at 7 kt. This general motion is expected to continue with a gradual turn to the west-southwest in the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast is slightly south of the previous advisory and close to the multi-model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 21.2N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 21.4N 113.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 21/1200Z 21.4N 114.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 22/0000Z 21.4N 116.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 22/1200Z 21.3N 117.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 23/0000Z 21.2N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/1200Z 21.0N 120.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/1200Z 20.8N 124.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 25/1200Z 20.8N 127.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Bucci

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 20 2022 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 201442 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MADELINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142022 1500 UTC TUE SEP 20 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MADELINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue Sep 20 2022 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 201442 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Madeline Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142022 900 AM MDT Tue Sep 20 2022 ...MADELINE FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL SOON... ...ROUGH SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.2N 112.0W ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Madeline was located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 112.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual turn west-southwestward later this week. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Madeline is expected to become a post-tropical remnant low by this evening. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Madeline will affect the southern Baja California peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Bucci

...MADELINE FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL SOON... ...ROUGH SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA... As of 9:00 AM MDT Tue Sep 20 the center of Madeline was located near 21.2, -112.0 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 20 2022 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 201442 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MADELINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142022 1500 UTC TUE SEP 20 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 112.0W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 75SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 112.0W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 111.7W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.4N 113.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.4N 114.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.4N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 21.3N 117.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 21.2N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 21.0N 120.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 20.8N 124.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 20.8N 127.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 112.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

355
ABPZ20 KNHC 191723
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM PDT Mon Sep 19 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Madeline, located about 150 miles south of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

South of Central America and Southeastern Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area
of low pressure continue just off the southern Mexico and Guatemala
coasts. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
gradual development while the system moves slowly
west-northwestward near the coast of southern Mexico through the
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

South of Southern Mexico:
Another area of low pressure could form south of the southern
coast of Mexico in a few days. Development, if any, of this system
should be slow to occur thereafter while the disturbance meanders
off the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Roth

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 19 Sep 2022 15:02:04 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 19 Sep 2022 15:29:41 GMT

Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Sep 19 2022 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 191501 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Madeline Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142022 900 AM MDT Mon Sep 19 2022 Madeline's satellite presentation has improved some this morning. Although the east-northeasterly shear continues to impede deep convective development in the northeast quadrant. A new burst of convection with cold cloud tops of -80C have developed just to the southeast of the surface center. An earlier AMSR-2 microwave pass also showed improved curved banding in the western semicircle. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimate T-numbers from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS, respectively, along with an earlier SATCON analysis supports a slight increase to 55 kt for this advisory. Increasing deep-layer shear and decreasing oceanic surface temperatures ahead of Madeline's track should induce a weakening trend later tonight. The global model simulated IR imagery shows that the cyclone should shed its deep convection by early Wednesday and degenerate into a remnant low-pressure system. The official intensity forecast is similar to last night's advisory and continues to side with the IVCN consensus model. Madeline's initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 315/7 kt. A subtropical ridge over northwestern Mexico is expected to build over the Baja California peninsula and to the north of Madeline by tonight. In response to this change in the synoptic steering pattern, the cyclone should turn toward the west-northwest by tonight and slowly turn westward on Wednesday. Madeline should continue in this heading as a remnant low through the remainder of the period. The NHC track forecast has been nudged a little to the south of the previous one within 36 hours to coincide with the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 20.6N 108.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 21.0N 109.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 21.4N 111.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 21.7N 112.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 21.9N 113.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 22/0000Z 21.9N 115.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 22/1200Z 21.9N 116.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 23/1200Z 21.9N 119.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 24/1200Z 21.8N 122.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts

Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 19 2022 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 191500 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM MADELINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142022 1500 UTC MON SEP 19 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MADELINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 6 4(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) SAN JOSE CABO 34 4 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 110W 34 54 2(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Sep 19 2022 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 191500 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Madeline Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142022 900 AM MDT Mon Sep 19 2022 ...MADELINE EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-NORTHWARD BY TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.6N 108.8W ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM W OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Madeline was located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 108.8 West. Madeline is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A gradual turn toward the west-northwest is expected by tonight followed by a westward motion on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Madeline will gradually move away from the coast of Mexico and pass to the south of the Baja California peninsula by tonight. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, followed by weakening beginning tonight. Madeline is forecast to become a remnant low by early Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Outer bands from Madeline are forecast to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches along the Jalisco coast into this afternoon and 1 to 2 inches this evening over the southern tip of Baja California. SURF: Swells generated by Madeline will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico for the next couple of days, and will spread northward to the southern Baja California peninsula coast and the coast of west-central Mexico later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts

...MADELINE EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-NORTHWARD BY TONIGHT... As of 9:00 AM MDT Mon Sep 19 the center of Madeline was located near 20.6, -108.8 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.