National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 281711
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Sep 28 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E located a little more than 100 miles
south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form over the far
southwestern portion of the eastern North Pacific early next week.
Some gradual development is possible thereafter while the system
drifts slowly eastward or northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E are issued
under WMO header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.
Forecast/Advisories are issued under WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and
under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.

$$
Forecaster Avila

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 28 Sep 2019 14:52:43 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 28 Sep 2019 15:31:53 GMT

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 281451 TCDEP1 Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 1000 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019 The area of disturbed weather along the southwestern coast of Mexico is gradually becoming better organized. There is no evidence of a well-defined center at this time, but satellite animation suggests that a circulation could be forming just south of Acapulco. Since there is a risk of tropical-storm-force winds along the coast of Mexico, the government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of southwestern coast, and advisories have been initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone 16-E. Earlier ASCAT data indicate that the disturbance has been producing winds of about 30 kt, mostly within its southern portion. The large envelope of the disturbance is interacting with the high terrain of southern Mexico, and the environment is not ideal for strengthening, but it is good enough for the disturbance to reach tropical storm status. By the end of the forecast period, the shear is expected to be high, and the system should weaken. The initial motion is obviously highly uncertain since there is not a good center to track. The best estimate is toward the northwest or 315 degrees at 11 kt. High pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will continue to steer the disturbance or the cyclone toward the northwest and then north-northwest very close to the southwestern coast of Mexico, and then into the Gulf of California. This is the solution provided by the reliable models. If the system develops its center closer to the coast, there is a chance that the circulation moves inland earlier than anticipated resulting in faster weakening. Regardless of how strong the system becomes, torrential rains are expected along the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 14.9N 100.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 29/0000Z 16.0N 101.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 24H 29/1200Z 17.5N 103.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 19.5N 105.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 22.0N 107.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 01/1200Z 26.0N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 02/1200Z 27.0N 111.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 03/1200Z 29.0N 112.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 28 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 281451 PWSEP1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019 1500 UTC SAT SEP 28 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) X(12) X(12) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 26(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 14(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) MANZANILLO 34 X 5( 5) 28(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) L CARDENAS 34 1 13(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) ZIHUATANEJO 34 2 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 100W 34 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 281451 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 1000 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019 ...TROPICAL CYCLONE EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTH OF MEXICO... ...TORRENTIAL RAINS ANTICIPATED IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 100.4W ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning along the southwestern coast of Mexico from Acapulco to Cabo Corrientes. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Acapulco to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 100.4 West. The system is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. This track should bring the disturbance or the cyclone very near or over the southwestern coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm later today or Sunday. However, if the center forms closer to the coast and interacts with the high terrain of Mexico, weakening should then occur. The disturbance is becoming better organized, and a tropical depression or a tropical storm is forecast to form later today or Sunday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by later tonight or early Sunday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 7 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches along the southwestern coast of Mexico from Chiapas to Nayarit through Monday. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Avila

...TROPICAL CYCLONE EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTH OF MEXICO... ...TORRENTIAL RAINS ANTICIPATED IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 the center of Sixteen-E was located near 14.9, -100.4 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 28 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 281450 TCMEP1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019 1500 UTC SAT SEP 28 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO TO CABO CORRIENTES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ACAPULCO TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 100.4W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 100.4W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 100.0W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 16.0N 101.5W...TROPICAL STORM MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 70SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 17.5N 103.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 100SE 80SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 19.5N 105.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 80SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 22.0N 107.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 26.0N 111.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 27.0N 111.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 29.0N 112.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 100.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 28/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 281137
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Sep 28 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large area of disturbed weather extends from Central America
westward along the southwest coast of Mexico. Although this system
does not appear to have a well-defined circulation at this time,
development is anticipated, and a tropical depression or tropical
storm will likely form later today or Sunday while the system moves
west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, near the
southwestern coast of Mexico. Interests along that portion of the
coast should monitor the progress of this disturbance since tropical
storm watches or warnings could be required later today or Sunday.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall, with the possibility of
flash flooding and mudslides, is expected to continue near the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. For
information on potential marine hazards, see High Seas forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form over the far
southwestern portion of the eastern North Pacific early next week.
Some gradual development is possible thereafter while the system
drifts slowly eastward or northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Avila

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 280544
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Sep 27 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large area of disturbed weather extends from Central America
westward along the southwest coast of Mexico. This system is
gradually becoming better organized, however, it does not appear to
have a well-defined circulation at this time. Development is
anticipated and a tropical depression or tropical storm will likely
form during the next day or so while the system moves
west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, near the
southwestern coast of Mexico. Interests along that portion of the
coast should monitor the progress of this disturbance since tropical
storm watches or warnings could be required on Saturday. Regardless
of development, heavy rainfall, with the possibility of flash
flooding and mudslides, is expected near the southwestern coast of
Mexico during the next few days. For information on potential marine
hazards, see High Seas forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected form over the far southwestern
portion of the eastern North Pacific early next week. Some gradual
development is possible thereafter while the system drifts slowly
eastward or northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 272327
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Sep 27 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A rather large area of disturbed weather extends from Central
America westward along the southwest coast of Mexico. A broad area
of low pressure is trying to form south-southeast of Acapulco in
association with this disturbance, but there is no evidence of a
well defined center at this time. Environmental conditions are very
favorable for a tropical depression or a tropical storm to form
within this area of disturbed weather during the next day or so,
while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at about 10 mph
near the southwestern coast of Mexico. Interests along this portion
of the coast should monitor the progress of the disturbance, since
tropical storm watches or warnings could be required at any time on
Saturday. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall, with the
possibility of flash flooding and mudslides, is expected near the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form over the far
southwestern portion of the eastern North Pacific by early next
week. Some gradual development is possible thereafter while the
system drifts slowly eastward or northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 271729
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Sep 27 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A low pressure system appears to be forming a few hundred miles
south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico. Although the associated shower
and thunderstorm activity is not well organized, this system is
likely to become a tropical depression or tropical storm during the
next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward to
northwestward at about 10 mph near the southern and southwestern
coast of Mexico. Interests along this portion of the coast should
monitor the progress of the disturbance since tropical storm watches
or warnings could be required at any time during the next couple of
days. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall, with the
possibility of flash flooding and mudslides, is expected near the
southern and southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

A small area of low pressure located a few hundred miles southwest
of Manzanillo, Mexico, is producing very little shower activity.
The low is expected to be absorbed by the larger weather
disturbance near the coast of Mexico during the next day or so, and
therefore development is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low... near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form over the far
southwestern portion of the eastern North Pacific by early next
week. Some gradual development is possible thereafter while the
system drifts slowly eastward or northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg/Hagen

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 271133
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Sep 27 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A small but well-defined low pressure system located a few hundred
miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, is producing limited shower
activity. Although some slight development of the low is still
possible today, it is expected to become absorbed by a larger
weather disturbance near the coast of Mexico during the next couple
of days, and the chance of tropical cyclone formation appears to be
decreasing.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located near
the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico is associated with an
elongated surface trough. A low pressure system is forecast to
develop along this trough during the next day or two, and it is
likely to become a tropical depression or tropical storm this
weekend or early next week while moving west-northwestward to
northwestward at about 10 mph near the southern and southwestern
coast of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall, with
the possibility of flash flooding and mudslides, is expected near
the Pacific coasts of Guatemala and Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form over the far
southwestern portion of the eastern North Pacific by early next
week. Some gradual development is possible thereafter while the
system drifts slowly eastward or northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg/Hagen

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 270535
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Sep 26 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A small but well-defined low pressure system is located several
hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. The low is currently producing no thunderstorms and
environmental conditions have become less conducive for tropical
cyclone formation. Some slight development is still possible later
today if thunderstorm activity increases while the system moves
quickly southeastward, however the low is expected to dissipate over
the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

A broad area of showers and thunderstorms is located near the
Pacific coasts of southern Mexico and Central America. This
disturbance is expected to move westward and will interact with an
elongated trough of low pressure just south of the coast of Mexico
during the next day or two. A tropical depression or tropical storm
is subsequently likely to form over the weekend or early next week
near the southern or southwestern coast of Mexico. Regardless of
development, the system is forecast to move west-northwestward to
northwestward along the coast of Mexico and will likely produce
heavy rainfall with the possibility of flash flooding and mudslides.
Heavy rainfall is also possible along the Pacific coast of Central
America through today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form over the far
southwestern portion of the eastern North Pacific by early next
week. Some gradual development is possible thereafter while the
system drifts slowly eastward or northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 262312
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Sep 26 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Shower activity is a little better organized than earlier today in
association with a broad area of low pressure located several
hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula. Although upper level winds are expected to
become less conducive for development later tonight, a tropical
depression could still form by Friday night before it becomes
absorbed by a larger weather disturbance near the coast of Mexico
over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

An elongated trough of low pressure near the coast of southern and
southwestern Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. A low is expected to form along this
trough during the next couple of days, and it is likely to become a
tropical depression over the weekend or early next week while it
moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph near the
southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall, with the possibility of flash flooding
and mudslides, is likely along the Pacific coasts of Central America
and southern and southwestern Mexico during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

A low pressure area is expected to form over the weekend in the far
southwestern part of the east Pacific basin. Some subsequent slow
development is possible into early next week as the low moves
slowly eastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 261741
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Sep 26 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure
located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula has become a little better organized
since yesterday. Some additional development of this system is
possible while it moves eastward and then southeastward during the
next couple of days, and a tropical depression could still form
before it becomes absorbed by a larger weather disturbance near the
coast of Mexico over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

An elongated trough of low pressure developing near the coast of
southern and southwestern Mexico is producing several clusters of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. A low is expected to
form along this trough during the next couple of days, and it is
likely to become a tropical depression over the weekend or early
next week while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10
to 15 mph near the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall, with the possibility of
flash flooding and mudslides, is likely along the Pacific coasts of
Central America and southern and southwestern Mexico during the
next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

A low pressure area is expected to form over the weekend in the far
southwestern part of the east Pacific basin. Some subsequent slow
development is possible into early next week as the low moves
slowly eastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 261133
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Sep 26 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula continues to produce disorganized shower activity. Some
development of this system is possible while it moves eastward and
then southeastward during the next couple of days, and a tropical
depression could still form before it becomes absorbed by a larger
weather disturbance near the coast of Mexico over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

An elongated trough of low pressure is developing near the coast of
southern and southwestern Mexico and is producing several clusters
of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. A low is expected to
form along this trough during the next couple of days, and it is
likely to become a tropical depression over the weekend or early
next week while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10
to 15 mph near the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall, with the possibility of
flash flooding and mudslides, is likely along the Pacific coasts of
Central America and southern and southwestern Mexico during the
next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 260501
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Sep 25 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located
several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula has decreased and become less organized
since the afternoon. Some development of this system is still
possible and a tropical depression could form while it moves slowly
northward or north-northeastward for the next day or so. The
disturbance is forecast to turn southeastward on Friday and
environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for
further development at that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

A broad area of disturbed weather is located over the far eastern
portion of the East Pacific basin. This system is expected to move
westward during the next day or two into a region of deep
southwesterly flow south of the southern coast of Mexico. A tropical
depression is subsequently likely to form over the weekend or early
next week while the system moves generally west-northwestward at 10
to 15 mph near the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico.
Regardless of development, this system could cause heavy rainfall
over southern and southwestern Mexico through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 252305
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Sep 25 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure several
hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula has become a little more concentrated this
afternoon. Gradual development of this system is possible during the
next day or so, and a tropical depression could form while it moves
slowly northward. By this weekend, conditions are expected to become
unfavorable for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form within a couple hundred
miles of the southern coast of Mexico during the next day or two. A
tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend or early next
week while the system moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph near the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico. Regardless
of development, this system could bring heavy rainfall over southern
and southwestern Mexico this weekend and into early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 251747
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Sep 25 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure
several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula has changed little during the past
several hours. Gradual development of this system is possible
during the next couple of days while it moves slowly northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form within a couple hundred
miles of the southern coast of Mexico during the next day or two. A
tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend or early next
week while the system moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph near the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 251144
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Sep 25 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure
several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula has become a little better organized this
morning. Additional gradual development of this system is possible
during the next couple of days while it moves slowly northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form within a couple hundred
miles of the southern coast of Mexico during the next few days. A
tropical depression could form over the weekend or early next week
while the system moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
near the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven