National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 18 2022 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 181436 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM MADELINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142022 1500 UTC SUN SEP 18 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MADELINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLAS MARIAS 34 3 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MAZATLAN 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 2 30(32) 18(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) 20N 110W 50 X 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Sep 18 2022 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 181436 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Madeline Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142022 900 AM MDT Sun Sep 18 2022 A large burst of deep convection has developed southwest of Madeline's center during the past few hours, with another broken line of convection oriented parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico. The current intensity remains 40 kt as a blend of the latest Dvorak Current Intensity numbers from TAFB and SAB, and the latest UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate. Madeline is located along the southwestern periphery of a large mid-tropospheric high, and to the southeast of a deep-layer trough to the west of California. The initial motion is northward, or 350/9 kt, but this steering set up should cause Madeline to gradually turn northwestward later today, and then west-northwestward and westward away from the coast of Mexico from 36 hours and beyond. The track guidance is tightly clustered through 48 hours, but there is more spread after that, with a few models keeping Madeline too strong and maintaining a northwestward motion. These models are discounted, and the official forecast continues to show a westward bend, following the GFS, ECMWF, and model consensus solutions. Madeline's broad circulation, and continued moderate to strong easterly shear, argue against much, if any, intensification during the next day or so. The official forecast still allows for the possibility for some minimal strengthening during the next 24 hours while Madeline is over warm waters. After 24 hours, the storm is forecast to begin moving across the cold wake left behind by former Hurricane Kay, which is expected to induce weakening. The updated NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous prediction, and it now shows Madeline degenerating into a post-tropical remnant low by 60 hours, when model simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF indicate that all deep convection should have dissipated. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rains from Madeline are expected for portions of coastal southwestern Mexico into Monday. This rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher coastal terrain. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible for the southwestern coast of Mexico from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes today and tonight. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 18.5N 106.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 19.5N 107.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 20.4N 108.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 21.0N 110.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 21.3N 111.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 21/0000Z 21.5N 112.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/1200Z 21.6N 113.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/1200Z 21.4N 116.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 23/1200Z 21.1N 119.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 18 2022 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 181436 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM MADELINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142022 1500 UTC SUN SEP 18 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MANZANILLO NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 106.9W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 130SE 130SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 330SE 300SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 106.9W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 106.7W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 19.5N 107.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 20.4N 108.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 21.0N 110.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 21.3N 111.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.5N 112.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.6N 113.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 21.4N 116.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 21.1N 119.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 106.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 18/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 171744
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Sep 17 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Lester, located along the coast of southwestern Mexico.

Southwest of Southwestern Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a well-defined low
pressure system have shown signs of becoming better organized over
the past few hours. If current trends continue, advisories will be
initiated on a new tropical depression or tropical storm this
afternoon. The low is forecast to meander off the southwestern coast
of Mexico today and then head northward or north-northwestward on
Sunday. A slow turn toward the northwest or west-northwest is then
expected through the middle of next week. For more information on
this system, including gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

South of Central America and Southeastern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form over the far eastern portion of
the eastern North Pacific basin early next week. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for some gradual development
while the system moves west-northwestward near or offshore the coast
of southern Mexico through mid-week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

South of Southern Mexico:
Another area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the
southern coast of Mexico by the middle of next week. Some gradual
development is possible thereafter while the disturbance moves
generally west-northwestward off the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 17 Sep 2022 17:37:28 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 17 Sep 2022 15:31:48 GMT

Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Sep 17 2022 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 171737 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Lester Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132022 100 PM CDT Sat Sep 17 2022 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS DISCONTINUED FOR SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO BUT THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT REMAINS... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 98.5W ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM ESE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued all coastal Tropical Storm watches and warnings for the coast of southwestern Mexico. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. For information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Lester was estimated to be inland near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 98.5 West. Lester is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). The depression is forecast to continue moving inland during the next few hours. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The center of Lester will likely dissipate this afternoon. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Lester can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP3.shtml. RAINFALL: Lester is forecast to produce rainfall totals across the following Mexican states through Sunday: Coastal Michoacan and coastal Guerrero: 8 to 12 inches with maximum totals of 16 inches Central to Western coastal Oaxaca, coastal Colima and coastal Jalisco: 3 to 6 inches with local maximum totals of 12 inches. These rains may produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher coastal terrain. SURF: Swells generated by Lester are affecting portions of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico, and this will continue today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS DISCONTINUED FOR SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO BUT THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT REMAINS... As of 1:00 PM CDT Sat Sep 17 the center of Lester was located near 16.5, -98.5 with movement N at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 17 2022 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 171437 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM LESTER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132022 1500 UTC SAT SEP 17 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ACAPULCO 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) P MALDONADO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Sep 17 2022 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 171437 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Lester Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132022 1000 AM CDT Sat Sep 17 2022 Lester's overnight improvement in organization was short lived. Several microwave overpasses during the last few hours show a distinct lack of organized convective banding, and little evidence that a well-defined circulation still exists. It is possible that close proximity to land has severely disrupted Lester's structure since it has been very difficult to locate the cyclone's center in traditional IR or Visible imagery this morning. With the center of Lester well-hidden below higher clouds, the uncertainty in the initial position and motion are unusually high, which also translates to high uncertainty in the intensity estimate since the Dvorak technique is very dependent on center location. The initial intensity of 35 kt is based on a blend of recent Dvorak fixes, but should be considered within that uncertain context. Significant strengthening is not supported by any guidance and appears unlikely with Lester so close to land, so the biggest threat will be very heavy rain leading to flash and urban flooding across portions of the southwest coast of Mexico. Mudslides will also be possible in areas of high terrain. That threat will exist over a wide area regardless of Lester's position or intensity, and will persist today even after Lester dissipates. Users are therefore urged to not put much weight into the specifics of the NHC track and intensity forecasts, which shows Lester moving inland and dissipating later today. This scenario is supported by all of the dynamical models, with some (like the ECMWF, UKMET and CMC models) indicating that Lester may have already moved inland. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rains from Lester will continue for portions of coastal southern Mexico into Sunday. This rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher coastal terrain. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 16.0N 99.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 17.3N 99.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 17 2022 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 171436 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM LESTER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132022 1500 UTC SAT SEP 17 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO ESCONDIDO TO ZIHUATANEJO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF ZIHUATANEJO TO LAZARO CARDENAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 99.0W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 70 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 150SE 120SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 99.0W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 98.7W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.3N 99.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 99.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPEP3...AT 17/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 161752 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lester Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132022 100 PM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022 ...LESTER EXPECTED TO SPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.0N 96.9W ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...18 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Maldonado to Zihuatanejo A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of Punta Maldonado to Laguna de Chacahua * West of Zihuatanejo to Lazaro Cardenas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lester was located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 96.9 West. Lester is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (18 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through early Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone is expected to move near or over the coast of southwestern Mexico Saturday or Saturday night, and dissipate over southwestern Mexico on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day or so. Rapid weakening is expected after the center crosses the coast of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Lester can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP3.shtml. RAINFALL: Lester is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with local maximum totals of 10 inches across coastal portions of the Mexican States of western Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through Monday. These rains may produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher coastal terrain. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning areas and possible within the watch area beginning early Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Lester are affecting portions of the coast of southern Mexico and this will continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Latto

...LESTER EXPECTED TO SPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND... As of 1:00 PM CDT Fri Sep 16 the center of Lester was located near 14.0, -96.9 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 16 Sep 2022 17:52:08 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 16 Sep 2022 15:28:31 GMT

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 161726
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Sep 16 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Lester, located about 150 miles south of Puerto Angel, Mexico.

Southwest of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure located a few hundred miles southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico, continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form within the next couple of days. This disturbance is forecast to
meander off the southwestern coast of Mexico through the end of this
week, and then begin to move northwestward early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Lester are issued under WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3. Forecast/Advisories on Lester
are issued under WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Latto

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 161436 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Lester Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132022 1000 AM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022 Lester remains a sheared tropical cyclone, with the low-level center occasionally becoming exposed to the east of the deep convection. The overall appearance of the storm has changed little since early this morning, and the latest subjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimates support keeping the advisory intensity at 35 kt. The storm has made its anticipated turn to the northwest and is on on a heading of 310/7 kt. Lester should continue to move in this direction for the next couple of days with a slight increase in forward speed by later today as the cyclone is steered within the flow between a cyclonic gyre to its west and a building ridge over Texas. The latest NHC forecast track is little changed from the previous one, and is near the GFS and ECMWF ensemble means. On this track, the center of Lester should reach the coastline of Mexico by Saturday afternoon or evening. Although Lester is within a thermodynamic environment of very high atmospheric moisture and over warm waters of of 28-29 degrees Celsius, the moderate (15-20 kt) east-northeasterly shear currently affecting the cyclone is forecast to persist through landfall. Therefore, only gradual intensification is expected during that time. After landfall, Lester should rapidly weaken over the rugged terrain of western Mexico, and the cyclone is forecast to dissipate on Sunday. The latest NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one and is close to the various intensity consensus aids. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rains from Lester will reach portions of coastal southern Mexico by this evening, increasing in coverage and intensity Saturday and Saturday night, spreading farther west on Sunday. This rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher coastal terrain. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of southern Mexico on Saturday within the Tropical Storm Warning area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 13.7N 96.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 14.4N 97.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 15.7N 99.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 17.2N 100.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...ON THE COAST 48H 18/1200Z 18.7N 102.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 16 2022 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 161435 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM LESTER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132022 1500 UTC FRI SEP 16 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 15(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) 13(13) 15(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ZIHUATANEJO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 100W 34 X 12(12) 6(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) ACAPULCO 34 X 3( 3) 30(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) ACAPULCO 50 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ACAPULCO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) P MALDONADO 34 X 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER LATTO

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 16 2022 707 WTPZ23 KNHC 161435 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM LESTER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132022 1500 UTC FRI SEP 16 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA MALDONADO TO ZIHUATANEJO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF PUNTA MALDONADO TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA * WEST OF ZIHUATANEJO TO LAZARO CARDENAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 96.5W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 40SE 50SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 96.5W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 96.1W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 14.4N 97.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 15.7N 99.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.2N 100.8W...ON THE COAST MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 30NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 18.7N 102.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 96.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPEP3...AT 16/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

737
ABPZ20 KNHC 151727
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Sep 15 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Southwest of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest
of Manzanillo, Mexico, continues to produce disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to become
more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely
to form within the next few days. This disturbance is forecast to
meander off the southwestern coast of Mexico through the end of this
week, and then begin to move northwestward early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Near the Coast of Southern Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located off the southern coast of Mexico continue to become better
organized. Visible satellite imagery also indicates that the
circulation has become better defined. If these trends continue, a
tropical depression is likely to form later today or tonight. The
disturbance is forecast to move northwestward, possibly moving
inland along the southern coast of Mexico this weekend. Interests
in that area should monitor the progress of this system as watches
could be required for a portion of the coast of southern Mexico
later today or tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

774
ABPZ20 KNHC 141725
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Sep 14 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Southwest of Southwestern Mexico:
A low pressure system located a few hundred miles southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico, continues to produce showers and thunderstorms,
mainly to the west of its center of circulation. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for further development of this system,
and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple
of days while meandering southwest of the southwestern coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Near the Coast of Southern Mexico:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms a couple of
hundred miles off the coast of southern Mexico is associated with a
trough of low pressure. Development of this system is possible
during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form
before reaching the coast of southern or southwestern Mexico, and
possibly moving inland, over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

649
ABPZ20 KNHC 131750
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Sep 13 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Southwest of southwestern Mexico:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a small area of
low pressure located a few hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo,
Mexico has increased some since this morning. Although environmental
conditions appear marginally favorable, some slight additional
development is possible during the next day or so before it likely
merges with the disturbance to its east.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Near the coast of southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure located along the coast of southern Mexico
continues to produce disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms.
This system is forecast to merge with the disturbance off the
southwestern coast of Mexico around midweek or possibly develop as a
separate system. Environmental conditions are expected to become
more conducive for development by the middle part of the week.
Consequently, a tropical depression is likely to form toward the
end of the week while it moves slowly westward near the coast of
southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts/Brown/Pasch