National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Sep 04 2022 634 WTPZ32 KNHC 041447 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twelve-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022 1000 AM CDT Sun Sep 04 2022 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.0N 101.4W ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula should closely monitor the depression. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twelve-E was located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 101.4 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h) and a west to west-northwest motion is expected during the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the north. The depression is expected to remain south of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC. SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico. These swells are expected to reach the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula by Tuesday, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall, with isolatd storm totals of 5 inches, across coastal portions of southwestern Mexico from Guerrero northwestward to Jalisco over the next few days. WIND: Gusty winds are likely near the coast of southwestern Mexico in outer rainbands during the next couple of days. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sun Sep 4 the center of Twelve-E was located near 14.0, -101.4 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 04 2022 395 WTPZ22 KNHC 041447 TCMEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122022 1500 UTC SUN SEP 04 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE DEPRESSION. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 101.4W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 101.4W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 100.8W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 14.3N 103.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 14.6N 105.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 15.3N 106.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 16.3N 108.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...170NE 150SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 17.8N 110.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...190NE 170SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.6N 111.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 180SE 150SW 180NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 23.6N 112.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 27.3N 114.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 101.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 1200 PM MDT Sat Sep 03 2022 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 031742 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Javier Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112022 1200 PM MDT Sat Sep 03 2022 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE WESTERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.8N 115.4W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM S OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The west coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Puerto San Andresito northward to Punta Eugenia A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The west coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Cabo San Lucas northward to Puerto San Andresito * The east coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Cabo San Lucas northward to Bahia San Juan Bautista A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case, within the next 6 to 12 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case, within the next 6 to 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Javier was located near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 115.4 West. Javier is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). This general motion is forecast to continue through today. A slow turn toward the west-northwest to west is expected to begin early Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Javier should move generally parallel to but offshore of the coast of Baja California Sur through today, and then turn away from the coast on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Javier is expected to gradually weaken over the next few days and become a post-tropical cyclone by early Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Javier can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1, WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP1.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the warning area and are possible in portions of the watch area through this evening. SURF: Swells generated by Javier will continue to affect portions of the southern and central Baja California peninsula during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Javier is expected to produce 1 to 2 inches of additional rainfall, with isolated storm total amounts of 5 inches across portions of Baja California Sur through today. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Bucci/Reinhart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 03 Sep 2022 17:42:45 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 03 Sep 2022 15:46:17 GMT

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031722
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Sep 3 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Javier, located about 100 miles west of the south-central
portion of the Baja California peninsula.

South of Southern Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms have changed little in organization in
association with an area of low pressure located just off the coast
of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions are conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form later
today or on Sunday while the system moves west-northwestward or
northwestward near the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico.
Regardless of development, heavy rain is possible along the coasts
of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next few days, and
interests in those locations and the Baja California peninsula
should monitor the progress of this disturbance. Additional
information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found
in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC,
and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE WESTERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA... As of 12:00 PM MDT Sat Sep 3 the center of Javier was located near 25.8, -115.4 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 900 AM MDT Sat Sep 03 2022 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 031450 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Javier Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112022 900 AM MDT Sat Sep 03 2022 The satellite presentation of Javier has continued to deteriorate over the past few hours. The deep convective burst noted in the previous discussion has rotated to the southern portion of the circulation and cloud top temperatures have warmed to above -70 degrees C. Microwave and infrared imagery show the northern half of the semicircle to be devoid of any deep convection. A blend of the objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates support lowering the intensity to 40 kt for this advisory. Javier appears to have begun its weakening trend. The system has crossed over waters cooler than 26 degrees C and the sea surface temperatures along the forecast track are expected to be progressively colder. Atmospheric conditions are also predicted to not be conducive for any additional strengthening. Global models suggest that the vertical wind shear should increase and the environmental moisture to decrease within a day. Based on this information and guidance, the official forecast now shows Javier becoming a post-tropical cyclone in 24 hours and weakening to a remnant within two days. The initial motion is estimated to be 325 degrees at 13 kt. Though the center of Javier appears to have shifted slightly to the north, the storm is expected to be steered northwestward by a mid-level ridge to its northeast. Within a day or less, model guidance agrees that the ridge should turn Javier to the west-northwest. Low-level tradewinds are expected to turn a weakening Javier to the west and west-southwest beyond 48 hours. The NHC track forecast is shifted slightly northward from the previous advisory prediction and is close the model consensus aids. Although the NHC forecast wind radii do not explicitly reach the coast of Mexico, any additional eastward or northward deviations from the official track forecast could result in tropical-storm-force winds reaching portions of Baja California Sur, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Although the center is expected to stay offshore, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Javier could lead to localized flash flooding in Baja California Sur. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of Baja California Sur through today. A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 25.1N 114.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 26.4N 116.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 27.3N 119.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 05/0000Z 27.7N 121.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 05/1200Z 27.7N 124.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 06/0000Z 27.4N 126.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/1200Z 27.1N 129.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/1200Z 26.6N 132.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/1200Z 26.2N 134.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Bucci/Reinhart

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 03 2022 705 WTPZ21 KNHC 031448 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM JAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112022 1500 UTC SAT SEP 03 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM CABO SAN LUCAS NORTHWARD TO PUNTA EUGENIA * THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM CABO SAN LUCAS NORTHWARD TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE...WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 114.8W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 50SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 180SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 114.8W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 114.3W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 26.4N 116.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 27.3N 119.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 27.7N 121.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 27.7N 124.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 27.4N 126.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 27.1N 129.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 26.6N 132.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 26.2N 134.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.1N 114.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 03/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI/REINHART

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 021742
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Sep 2 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Javier, located a couple hundred miles southwest of the
southern tip of Baja California.

South of Southern Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending several hundred
miles south of the coast of southern Mexico are associated with a
broad area of low pressure. Gradual development of this system is
expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend
or early next week while it moves westward and then
west-northwestward near the coast of southern and southwestern
Mexico. Interests in southern and southwestern Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Javier are issued under
WMO header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Javier are issued
under WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Reinhart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 02 Sep 2022 14:49:47 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 02 Sep 2022 15:30:29 GMT

Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 02 2022 854 WTPZ41 KNHC 021447 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Javier Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112022 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 02 2022 While quite broad, Javier continues to improve in organization. Deep convection has been forming near the center of the circulation with cold cloud tops below -80 degrees C. The initial intensity is raised to 40 kt to represent a blend of the Dvorak satellite classifications from TAFB and SAB. The storm is expected to be over warm waters (greater than 26 degrees C) for another 24 hours. Global models also indicate atmospheric conditions should be conducive for additional strengthening, with weak vertical wind shear and ample environmental moisture. But due to Javier's elongated structure, the official forecast calls for the system to only slightly intensify in the next day. Thereafter, the cyclone is expected to weaken as it moves over cooler waters and enters a drier, more stable environment. Javier is predicted to become a post-tropical cyclone in about 48 hours. The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward at 8 kt. The storm is moving along the periphery of a mid-level ridge to its north. In the next couple of days, the ridge is expected to build westward and turn Javier toward the west-northwest and west. The official forecast is again adjusted to the right of the previous forecast towards the multi-model consensus aids. However, tropical-storm-force winds generated by the storm are predicted to remain offshore of the western coast of Baja California Sur. Associated outer rainbands and large swells are expected to affect portions of the southern and central Baja California peninsula coast during the next couple of days. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Although the center is expected to stay offshore, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Javier could lead to localized flash flooding in Baja California Sur. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 20.7N 112.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 22.0N 113.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 23.8N 114.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 25.3N 117.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 26.1N 119.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 05/0000Z 26.4N 122.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 05/1200Z 26.3N 125.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/1200Z 25.7N 129.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/1200Z 25.2N 132.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Bucci/Reinhart

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 02 2022 087 FOPZ11 KNHC 021447 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM JAVIER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112022 1500 UTC FRI SEP 02 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JAVIER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P ABREOJOS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 115W 34 X 20(20) 16(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) 25N 115W 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 17(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) 25N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI/REINHART

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 02 2022 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 021446 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM JAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112022 1500 UTC FRI SEP 02 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 112.2W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 70SE 40SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 270SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 112.2W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 111.9W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 22.0N 113.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 23.8N 114.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 25.3N 117.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 26.1N 119.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 26.4N 122.4W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 26.3N 125.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 25.7N 129.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 25.2N 132.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 112.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI/REINHART

Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 02 2022 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 021446 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Javier Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112022 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 02 2022 ...JAVIER GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 112.2W ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Javier was located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 112.2 West. Javier is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and an increase in forward speed is expected through early Saturday. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast on Saturday, followed by a turn toward the west on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast through Saturday before Javier begins to weaken on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Javier can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. SURF: Swells generated by Javier will continue to affect portions of the southern and central Baja California peninsula during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Javier is expected to produce 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, with isolated storm total amounts of 4 inches across portions of Baja California Sur through this weekend. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Bucci/Reinhart

...JAVIER GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING... As of 9:00 AM MDT Fri Sep 2 the center of Javier was located near 20.7, -112.2 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

241
ABPZ20 KNHC 011738
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Sep 1 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of West-Central Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 300 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula are gradually becoming better organized.
Environmental conditions appear favorable for development of this
system, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is forecast to
form later today or tonight while moving northwestward at about 10
mph, likely remaining a couple of hundred miles off the western
coast of Baja California Sur. Additional information on this
system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

South of Southern Mexico:
A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
near the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gradual development of this system
is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form late
this weekend or early next week while it moves westward or
west-northwestward near the coast of southern and southwestern
Mexico. Interests in southern and southwestern Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on
the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 311745
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Aug 31 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles
south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Satellite-derived wind data
indicate that this system is developing a low-level circulation, and
a tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or so.
The system is forecast to move west-northwestward or northwestward
during the next few days, likely remaining a few hundred miles off
the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the southern
coast of Mexico by late this week. Gradual development of this
system is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form
by early next week while the disturbance moves westward or
west-northwestward near the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301742
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Aug 30 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
A tropical wave located a few hundred miles south-southeast of
Manzanillo, Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to
be conducive for gradual development during the next few days, and
a tropical depression is expected to form later this week or by
this weekend. The system is forecast to move west-northwestward or
northwestward, likely remaining a few hundred miles off the coast of
southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the southern
coast of Mexico by late this week. Some gradual development of this
system is possible over the weekend while it moves westward or
west-northwestward near the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 291744
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Aug 29 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwest Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form a few hundred miles
south of southwestern Mexico in a few days. Some development of
this system is possible toward the end of the week while it moves
west-northwestward, well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts