National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 23:41:26 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 21:44:35 GMT

Issued at 600 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 103 WTPZ35 KNHC 212340 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 18A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 600 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 ...LORENA MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA... ...HEADING FOR NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AS A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.1N 111.0W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM S OF GUAYMAS MEXICO ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM E OF MULEGE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 11 MPH...18 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Northwestern coast of mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to Puerto Libertad. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere on the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Lorena. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located near latitude 27.1 North, longitude 111.0 West. Lorena is moving toward the north near 11 mph (18 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next 24 to 36 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to continue moving across the Gulf of California for the next 6 to 12 hours, and then cross the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Lorena is expected to reach the coast as a tropical storm early Sunday, but rapid weakening is anticipated thereafter. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) to the north and east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml. WIND: Tropical-storms conditions are expected to spread northward across the Gulf of California this evening and reach the tropical storm warning area later tonight. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce the following total rainfall accumulations through Sunday night: Sonora...3 to 6 inches with isolated totals of 8 inches. East coast of Baja California Sur and Northwest Sinaloa...additional 1 to 3 inches. This rainfall may result in life-threatening flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will continue to affect portions of the western coast of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

...LORENA MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA... ...HEADING FOR NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AS A TROPICAL STORM... As of 6:00 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 the center of Lorena was located near 27.1, -111.0 with movement N at 11 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 20:49:13 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 21:44:35 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 212047 CCA TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 2100 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 CORRECTED TO ADD STATUS OF REMNANT LOW AT 36 HOURS CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR MAINLAND MEXICO FROM HUATABAMPITO TO PUERTO LIBERTAD. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM HUATABAMPITO TO PUERTO LIBERTAD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ON THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 111.1W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 45SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 111.1W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 111.0W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 28.2N 111.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 30.0N 112.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 32.0N 112.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.7N 111.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 22/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 212046 CCA TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number 18...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 300 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Corrected to add status of remnant low at 36 hours The inner core of Lorena did not survive its path across the high terrain of the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft investigated the cyclone and found that Lorena has weakened significantly. The central pressure rose to 1002 mb, and the peak winds are only 45 kt. These winds are confined to a small area to the north and east of the center. The cloud pattern has also deteriorated significantly since yesterday. Although the ocean is quite warm in the Gulf of California, the shear is rapidly increasing, and this factor should continue to weaken the already battered storm. However, the NHC forecast calls for Lorena to reach the coast of northwestern Mexico within the tropical storm warning area in about 18 hours or so as a tropical storm. After landfall, rapid weakening is anticipated, but heavy rains should continue for another day or so. Lorena is moving toward the north or 350 degrees at 10 kt, steered by the flow around the western periphery of a subtropical high. This flow pattern will persist, and Lorena is anticipated to continue on this general track for the next day or two until dissipation over the Sonoran Desert. Key Messages: 1. Lorena will produce heavy rain, with life-threatening flash floods possible, this weekend in parts of northwestern mainland Mexico. Moisture associated with Lorena is forecast to bring a chance for heavy rain to the southwest United States late this weekend and early next week. 2. Lorena is expected to bring tropical-storm-force winds over portions of the tropical storm warning area beginning tonight. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 26.7N 111.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 28.2N 111.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 30.0N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 23/0600Z 32.0N 112.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 20:41:06 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 21:38:03 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 212039 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 2100 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 110W 34 24 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) ISLA SOCORRO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 212039 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 300 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Deep convection has become even more displaced from the center of Mario, and the closest thunderstorms are now more than 60 n mi to the southwest of the cyclone's exposed center. The intensity of the weakening tropical cyclone is now 40 kt, based on a blend of Final-T and CI numbers from TAFB. Strong easterly shear affecting Mario is not expected to decrease much for the next day or two, and it seems unlikely that the cyclone will be able to recover. By the time the shear does relax early next week, Mario will be moving over much cooler waters, which should inhibit the redevelopment of organized deep convection. Further weakening is therefore forecast, and Mario is now expected to become a post-tropical remnant low in 36 hours. Given current trends in convection, it's possible that Mario could become post-tropical sooner than that. The NHC intensity forecast is merely an update of the previous advisory. The tropical storm has drifted slowly northward so far this afternoon but should resume a north-northwestward track by tonight. The models are still in fairly good agreement that Mario will then be steered in that general direction for a few days after that. It is still within the realm of possibility that the cyclone could reach the Baja California peninsula, but it will likely become a remnant low before it does so. Little change was made to the official track forecast, which is very slightly east of the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 19.6N 110.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 20.5N 111.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 21.8N 112.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 23.3N 113.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 23/1800Z 24.4N 113.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 24/1800Z 26.1N 113.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 212039 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 300 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 ...MARIO WEAKENING AND LACKING THUNDERSTORMS... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.6N 110.5W ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the southern Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of Mario. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 110.5 West. Mario is moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest with a slight increase in forward speed is expected later today or tonight. Mario is then forecast to continue on that heading through early next week. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated, and Mario is expected to become a remnant low by Monday, if not sooner. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

...MARIO WEAKENING AND LACKING THUNDERSTORMS... As of 3:00 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 the center of Mario was located near 19.6, -110.5 with movement N at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 212039 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 2100 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 110.5W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 110.5W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 110.5W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 20.5N 111.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 21.8N 112.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 23.3N 113.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 24.4N 113.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 26.1N 113.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 110.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 353 FOPZ15 KNHC 212038 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 2100 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HERMOSILLO 34 1 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) BAHIA KINO 34 14 18(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) BAHIA KINO 50 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUAYMAS 34 39 1(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 352 WTPZ35 KNHC 212038 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorena Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 300 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 ...CORE OF LORENA DID NOT SURVIVE THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... ...HEADING FOR NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AS A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.7N 111.1W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF GUAYMAS MEXICO ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM NNE OF LORETO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the Baja California peninsula and the Hurricane Watch for mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to Puerto Libertad. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Northwestern coast of mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to Puerto Libertad. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere on the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Lorena. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located near latitude 26.7 North, longitude 111.1 West. Lorena is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next 24 to 36 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to continue moving across the Gulf of California for the next 6 to 12 hours, and then cross the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico on Sunday. Data from a reconnaissance plane indicate that the maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Lorena is expected to reach the coast as a tropical storm early Sunday, but rapid weakening is anticipated thereafter. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) to the north and east of the center. The minimum central pressure estimated by the crew of the Air Force plane was 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml. WIND: Tropical-storms conditions are expected to spread northward across the Gulf or California today and reach the tropical storm warning area by later tonight. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce the following total rainfall accumulations through Sunday night: Sonora...3 to 6 inches with isolated totals of 8 inches. East coast of Baja California Sur and Northwest Sinaloa...additional 1 to 3 inches. This rainfall may result in life-threatening flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will continue to affect portions of the western coast of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Avila

...CORE OF LORENA DID NOT SURVIVE THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... ...HEADING FOR NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AS A TROPICAL STORM... As of 3:00 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 the center of Lorena was located near 26.7, -111.1 with movement N at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 20:34:59 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 21:31:37 GMT

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 212033 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 21 2019 A pair of ASCAT passes within the past 2-3 hours revealed maximum winds of 40-45 kt, so Kiko's intensity has been lowered to 45 kt. The low-level center appears to be moving out from under the convective cirrus, and the cloud-top temperatures have been warming significantly for much of the day. According to analyses from UW-CIMMS, about 15 kt of southwesterly shear is affecting the cyclone, but there is a chance that the shear will decrease a bit as Kiko loses latitude during the next 36 hours. On the negative side, Kiko will remain in a relatively dry and somewhat stable air mass, and these conditions could limit the amount of deep convection the cyclone is able to produce. The new NHC intensity forecast is very close to the IVCN consensus and the HCCA model, keeping a relatively steady intensity for the next 3 days. By days 4 and 5, an increase in shear and lower oceanic heat content should lead to weakening, and simulated infrared satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF suggest that Kiko's deep convection may dissipate for good by that time. As a result, the official forecast now shows Kiko becoming a remnant low by day 5. Kiko is now moving slowly west-southwestward, or 250/4 kt. An elongated mid- to upper-level trough extending from California to near the Hawaiian Islands is digging southward, which is forcing the subtropical ridge--and Kiko--to lose latitude during the next 36 hours. After that time, the western portion of the trough is forecast to cut off east of the Hawaiian Islands, causing Kiko to turn sharply northwestward on days 2-4. Once a remnant low, Kiko is then expected to be steered by lower-level flow, causing it to turn back to the southwest. The updated NHC track is a little farther south during the first 2 days to account for the adjusted initial position, otherwise it's very close the previous forecast and the various multi-model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 18.0N 131.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 17.4N 132.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 16.5N 133.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 15.9N 134.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 16.1N 135.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 24/1800Z 18.3N 137.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 25/1800Z 19.0N 138.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 26/1800Z 17.7N 139.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 212032 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 2100 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 131.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 135W 34 X 2( 2) 19(21) 15(36) 2(38) X(38) 1(39) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) 1(11) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 3(15) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 212032 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 21 2019 ...KIKO NOW MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WITH MUCH WEAKER WINDS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 131.6W ABOUT 1440 MI...2320 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 131.6 West. Kiko is moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A motion toward the southwest or west-southwest is forecast to occur through Sunday night, followed by a westward to northwestward motion Monday and Tuesday. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next several days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

...KIKO NOW MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WITH MUCH WEAKER WINDS... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sat Sep 21 the center of Kiko was located near 18.0, -131.6 with movement WSW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.