National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 15 Aug 2022 14:40:41 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 15 Aug 2022 15:22:29 GMT

Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Aug 15 2022 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 151440 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102022 900 AM MDT Mon Aug 15 2022 The depression is maintaining enough deep convection to keep its tropical cyclone status for now, however the convection has had little, if any, organization for the past 12-18 hours. The initial intensity is held at 25 kt and is based on earlier scatterometer data and the most recent SAB Dvorak classification. Easterly shear of about 20 kt is forecast to continue to plague the system over the next few days, and gradual weakening is anticipated during that time. The system is expected to remain over warm water so continued bursts of convection are likely, but if the convection does not gain additional organization the system is likely to become a remnant low at just about anytime within the next 24 hours. The depression has been drifting southwestward over the past day or so. A very slow westward or west-southwestward motion is expected over the next 12 to 24 hours as the system remains within an area of weak steering flow. A slightly faster westward to west- northwestward motion should occur around midweek when the system is a remnant low. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 17.8N 113.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 17.7N 113.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 16/1200Z 17.6N 114.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 17/0000Z 17.6N 115.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/1200Z 17.7N 116.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/0000Z 17.9N 117.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/1200Z 18.2N 118.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 15 2022 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 151438 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102022 1500 UTC MON AUG 15 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 1 5( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Aug 15 2022 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 151438 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten-E Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102022 900 AM MDT Mon Aug 15 2022 ...DEPRESSION HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 113.6W ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten-E was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 113.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 1 mph (2 km/h) and this motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast, and the depression is expected to degenerate into a remnant low later today or tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

...DEPRESSION HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE... As of 9:00 AM MDT Mon Aug 15 the center of Ten-E was located near 17.8, -113.6 with movement W at 1 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 15 2022 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 151438 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102022 1500 UTC MON AUG 15 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 113.6W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 1 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 113.6W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 113.5W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.7N 113.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.6N 114.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.6N 115.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.7N 116.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.9N 117.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 18.2N 118.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 113.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 141709
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Aug 14 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Ten-E, located a few hundred miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Ten-E are issued under WMO
header WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Ten-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.

$$
Forecaster Brown

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 14 Aug 2022 14:39:40 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 14 Aug 2022 15:22:25 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 14 2022 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 141438 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102022 1500 UTC SUN AUG 14 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 3 17(20) 5(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) ISLA CLARION 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Aug 14 2022 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 141438 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102022 900 AM MDT Sun Aug 14 2022 There has been little change in the structure of the tropical depression since the previous advisory. The center remains exposed to the northeast of the associated deep convection due to the presence of moderate to strong east-northeasterly shear. Since there has been no change in the system's organization, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt. Some of the objective and subjective satellite estimates from TAFB and UW/CIMSS suggest the system could be slightly stronger, but given the lack of overall organization it is best to stay on the conservative side until scatterometer data is potentially available later today. The vertical wind shear affecting the system is forecast to increase within the next 24 hours, and that is likely to prevent strengthening. Simulated satellite imagery from the global models suggest bursts of deep convection are likely to continue over the western portion of the circulation through tonight. After that time, the system is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low and gradual weakening should occur through midweek. The cyclone is moving west-northwestward at about 4 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the depression is expected to cause the cyclone to turn westward later today. As the low weakens it is forecast to turn west-southwestward within the low-level flow. The new NHC track forecast is again similar to the previous advisory and is close to the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 18.3N 113.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 18.5N 113.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 18.5N 114.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 16/0000Z 18.3N 114.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/1200Z 18.1N 115.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/0000Z 18.0N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/1200Z 18.0N 117.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Aug 14 2022 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 141438 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten-E Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102022 900 AM MDT Sun Aug 14 2022 ...DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 113.1W ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten-E was located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 113.1 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) A slightly slower westward to west-southwestward motion is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through tonight. The depression is forecast degenerate into a remnant low on Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

...DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 9:00 AM MDT Sun Aug 14 the center of Ten-E was located near 18.3, -113.1 with movement WNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 14 2022 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 141438 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102022 1500 UTC SUN AUG 14 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 113.1W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 113.1W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 112.9W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 18.5N 113.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.5N 114.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.3N 114.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.1N 115.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.0N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.0N 117.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 113.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 131727
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Aug 13 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization
in association with an area of low pressure located a few hundred
miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. If this activity were to continue, a short-lived
tropical depression could form later today or this evening while the
system moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
By Sunday, upper-level winds are forecast to strengthen over the
system, and further development is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Brown

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 121722
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Aug 12 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located a few hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico,
have changed little in organization during the past several hours.
This system is still likely to become a short-lived tropical
cyclone during the next day or so before upper-level winds
become unfavorable for development on Sunday. The low is forecast
to move west-northwestward at about 10 mph well offshore the coast
of Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 111741
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Aug 11 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located several hundred miles south of the coast of southwestern
Mexico have become better organized during the past several hours.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development
and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or
two. This system is forecast to move west-northwestward or
northwestward at about 10 mph, well offshore the coast of Mexico
through the weekend. The disturbance should move into an environment
that is less conducive for development by Sunday, and further
development will be unlikely at that time.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 101739
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Aug 10 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Howard, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located several hundred miles south of the coast of
southwestern Mexico have continued to gradually become more
organized. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by this weekend while it moves west-northwestward to
northwestward, well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Onderlinde

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 10 Aug 2022 14:42:22 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 10 Aug 2022 15:22:29 GMT

Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 10 2022 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 101441 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Howard Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 10 2022 Howard's deep convection continues to steadily decrease, both in terms of extent and magnitude (as indicated by warming cloud top temperatures). A blend of subjective Dvorak intensity estimates and the UW-CIMSS SATCON support lowering the analyzed intensity to 50 kt for this advisory. Continued weakening appears inevitable as Howard moves over cooler waters and into a drier and more stable surrounding environment. The ECMWF, GFS and HWRF all indicate that Howard will lose its remaining deep convection by the end of today, and this is reflected in the official forecast which shows the cyclone as post-tropical in 24 h. Howard has turned west-northwestward, with an initial forward speed of 9 kt. A gradual westward turn is expected over the next day or so as the cyclone is increasingly steered by low-level easterly flow. No changes of note were made to the NHC track forecast, which remains based on the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 23.7N 120.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 24.1N 121.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 24.5N 123.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/0000Z 24.8N 124.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/1200Z 24.9N 126.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 13/0000Z 24.8N 127.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 10 2022 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 101440 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM HOWARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092022 1500 UTC WED AUG 10 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HOWARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 6(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY