National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 211447 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 1500 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 110W 34 31 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) ISLA SOCORRO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 900 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 211447 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Geostationary satellite imagery shows the low-level center of Mario is exposed to the northeast of the main convective mass, which is the result of strong northeasterly shear. An average of the latest Dvorak intensity estimates, and UW-CIMSS SATCON yields an initial wind speed of 45 kt. Hopefully, ASCAT data will provide a better assessment of the cyclone's intensity later today. The vertical shear over Mario is forecast to remain moderate to strong during the next 24 hours while Mario heads toward cooler waters. This should result in gradual weakening. After that time, the shear is forecast to decrease but the system will be moving into a more stable air mass and reach the 26C isotherm by 48 hours. Continued weakening is forecast and Mario is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low in a couple of days. Mario is progressing slowly north-northwestward, or 330 degrees at 4 kt. The dynamical model guidance is in relatively good agreement on a northwesterly track around the western side of a mid-level ridge. As Mario weakens, it should turn northward and slow down with the low-level steering flow. The latest consensus aids were a little west of the previous track, so the latest official forecast has been nudged in that direction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 18.9N 110.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 19.9N 111.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 21.1N 112.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 22.4N 113.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 23.6N 113.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 24/1200Z 25.2N 114.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 211447 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 1500 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 110.5W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 90SE 90SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 75SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 110.5W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 110.4W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 19.9N 111.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 80SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 21.1N 112.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.4N 113.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 23.6N 113.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 25.2N 114.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 110.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211142
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Sep 21 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Lorena, located near the southeastern coast of the Baja California
peninsula, on Tropical Storm Mario, located a few hundred miles
south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on
Tropical Storm Kiko, located over the far southwestern part of the
basin.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected for the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 11:42:23 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 09:44:35 GMT

Issued at 600 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 211141 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 16A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 600 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 ...HURRICANE LORENA HUGGING THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.0N 110.5W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NNW OF LA PAZ MEXICO ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SE OF LORETO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has discontinued all the watches and warnings for the west coast of the Baja California peninsula. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula from Santa Rosalia to Los Barriles A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Santa Rosalia to Bahia San Juan Bautista * Northwestern coast of mainland Mexico from from Altata to Bahia Kino A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula north of Santa Rosalia to Bahia San Juan Bautista * Northwestern coast of mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to Bahia Kino. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Mainland Mexico north of Bahia Kino to Puerto Libertad. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case through today. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere on the Baja California Peninsula and the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Lorena. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was estimated near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 110.5 West. Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A general motion toward the north-northwest is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to move along the east coast of Baja California Sur or over the Gulf of California today, then approach the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico tonight and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through tonight. After that time, Lorena is forecast to weaken. Lorena is a small cyclone and hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to spread northward across the hurricane warning area through tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible and tropical storm conditions are expected within the hurricane watch and tropical storm warning areas by tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area by tonight. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce the following total rainfall accumulations through Sunday: Baja California Sur...3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum amounts around 8 inches. Sonora...3 to 6 inches. Northwest Sinaloa...2 to 4 inches. This rainfall may result in life-threatening flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the western coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Avila

...HURRICANE LORENA HUGGING THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... As of 6:00 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 the center of Lorena was located near 25.0, -110.5 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 09:03:17 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 09:31:37 GMT

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 210900 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 AM PDT Sat Sep 21 2019 The initial intensity remains 55 kt based on recent Dvorak satellite intensity estimates. All of the intensity guidance continues to show quick weakening as the cyclone moves over marginal SSTs and into a drier and slightly more stable environment. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, except the intensity has been held steady for the next 36 hours due to forecast very low shear conditions by the GFS and ECMWF models. The initial motion estimate is 360/02 kt. Despite this most recent slow northward jog, the new NHC guidance still shows Kiko turning westward later today, followed by an unusual wave-like motion as mid-level ridge to the north fluctuates in strength during the 5-day period. The new NHC track is close to the latest consensus aids and similar to the previous NHC forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 18.8N 130.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 18.6N 131.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 18.0N 132.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 17.2N 133.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 23/0600Z 16.7N 134.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 24/0600Z 17.3N 136.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 25/0600Z 18.9N 137.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 26/0600Z 18.6N 139.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 08:59:59 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 09:38:00 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 210859 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0900 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 135W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 10(23) 1(24) X(24) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) 1(11) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 4(11) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Issued at 300 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 210859 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 300 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Mario has become quite disorganized tonight. Geostationary satellite and microwave images indicate that the low-level center is now located well to the east of the main area of deep convection. This asymmetric cloud pattern is due to about 25 kt of east-northeasterly shear as shown by the SHIPS model. The initial intensity is lowered to 50 kt, using a blend of the Dvorak final T and CI numbers, and this could be generous given its current appearance. Although the strong shear currently affecting Mario is expected to lessen during the next couple of days, the cyclone will be moving into a drier airmass and over decreasing SSTs. Therefore, steady weakening seems likely, and the NHC intensity forecast shows a slightly faster rate of weakening than the previous one. This prediction is in good agreement with the HCCA and IVCN guidance. Mario is expected to become a remnant low in 2 or 3 days when it will be over SSTs of about 24 C, and dissipate by day 4 over very cool waters offshore of the Baja California peninsula. The tropical storm is moving northward, or 350 degrees, at 4 kt. The increasingly shallow system is expected to move northwestward to north-northwestward, following Lorena, with the low-level flow. The track models are in fair agreement, and only minor changes were made to the previous NHC forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 18.9N 110.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 19.6N 110.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 20.8N 111.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 22.3N 112.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 23/0600Z 23.7N 113.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 24/0600Z 25.6N 115.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 210859 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 AM PDT Sat Sep 21 2019 ...KIKO NOW MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD... ..EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 130.3W ABOUT 1345 MI...2165 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 130.3 West. Kiko is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow westward motion is expected to begin later today, followed by a west-southwestward motion through early Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast during the next several days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

...KIKO NOW MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD... ..EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD LATER TODAY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sat Sep 21 the center of Kiko was located near 18.8, -130.3 with movement N at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 08:59:03 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 09:44:35 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 012 WTPZ23 KNHC 210858 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0900 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 130.3W AT 21/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 75SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 130.3W AT 21/0900Z AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 130.3W FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 18.6N 131.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 18.0N 132.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 17.2N 133.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 16.7N 134.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 17.3N 136.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 18.9N 137.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 18.6N 139.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 130.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 797 FOPZ14 KNHC 210858 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 0900 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 36 6(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) ISLA SOCORRO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 210858 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 0900 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 110.3W AT 21/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 100SE 70SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 90SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 110.3W AT 21/0900Z AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 110.2W FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 19.6N 110.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 20.8N 111.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.3N 112.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 23.7N 113.4W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 25.6N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 110.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 300 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 210858 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 300 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 ...MARIO WEAKENING AS IT HEADS NORTHWARD... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.9N 110.3W ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the southern Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of Mario. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 110.3 West. Mario is moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slightly faster northwestward to north-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Mario is expected to become a tropical depression on Sunday and a remnant low on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...MARIO WEAKENING AS IT HEADS NORTHWARD... As of 3:00 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 the center of Mario was located near 18.9, -110.3 with movement N at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.