National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 28 Jul 2022 14:43:19 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 28 Jul 2022 15:22:40 GMT

Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Jul 28 2022 564 WTPZ42 KNHC 281440 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Frank Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022 900 AM MDT Thu Jul 28 2022 Conventional satellite imagery this morning suggests that the northeasterly shear over Frank is diminishing, with some cirrus outflow developing in the northeastern quadrant. However, SSM/IS microwave overpasses at 1144 and 1234 UTC show that the storm has not yet become better organized, as the center is still located to the northeast of the main convective bands. Various satellite intensity estimates range from 35-55 kt, and given the unchanged organization the initial intensity is held at 45 kt. A further reduction in the shear appears likely later today, which along with sea surface temperatures of 28-29C, should allow steady to possible rapid strengthening through the 60 h point. The new intensity forecast continues to call for a peak intensity of 90 kt, and this is at the upper edge of the intensity guidance. After 60 h, while the shear is forecast to remain light, the cyclone should move over steadily decreasing SSTs, reaching 21C water by 120 h. This should cause a steady to rapid weakening. This part of the intensity forecast has been adjusted downward and it lies near the intensity consensus aids. Frank continues to move westward with the initial motion 280/11 kt. The track forecast reasoning is again unchanged from the previous advisory. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected during the next 12-24 h, followed by a northwestward motion as the cyclone heads for a break in the subtropical ridge produced by mid- to upper-level troughing over the northeastern Pacific. The track guidance remains in good agreement, but it has again shifted just a little to the north after about 36 h. Thus, the new track forecast is nudged a little northward during that time. It should be noted that Frank and Tropical Storm Georgette are likely to come close enough to one another to interact. The global models still suggest that Frank will be the larger and dominant system during this interaction, and that Georgette will have only minor impacts on the track and intensity of Frank. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 13.2N 110.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 13.6N 111.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 14.4N 112.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 15.5N 114.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 16.7N 116.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 31/0000Z 17.9N 118.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 31/1200Z 19.1N 120.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 01/1200Z 21.5N 123.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 02/1200Z 23.5N 126.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 28 2022 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 281439 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM FRANK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072022 1500 UTC THU JUL 28 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 5 4( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 15(25) 5(30) X(30) X(30) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 115W 34 1 12(13) 66(79) 7(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) 15N 115W 50 X 1( 1) 41(42) 9(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) 15(15) 7(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 6(15) 1(16) X(16) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 9(15) 2(17) X(17) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 57(60) 13(73) X(73) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 12(39) X(39) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 8(20) X(20) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 4(28) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 28 2022 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 281438 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM FRANK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072022 1500 UTC THU JUL 28 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 110.0W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 45SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 110.0W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 109.6W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 13.6N 111.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 80SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 14.4N 112.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 15.5N 114.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 16.7N 116.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 17.9N 118.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 19.1N 120.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 21.5N 123.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 23.5N 126.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 110.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Jul 28 2022 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 281438 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Frank Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022 900 AM MDT Thu Jul 28 2022 ...FRANK MOVING WESTWARD AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.2N 110.0W ABOUT 670 MI...1080 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Frank was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 110.0 West. Frank is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is expected later today or tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest Friday night or Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected today, with a faster rate of strengthening forecast by tonight and Friday. Frank is forecast to become a hurricane on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

...FRANK MOVING WESTWARD AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO... As of 9:00 AM MDT Thu Jul 28 the center of Frank was located near 13.2, -110.0 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 271728
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Jul 27 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Frank, located several hundred miles south-southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico and on newly-formed Tropical Depression Eight-E,
located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Eight-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Eight-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Papin

Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Jul 27 2022 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 271459 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022 900 AM MDT Wed Jul 27 2022 The area of low pressure we have been monitoring more than 500 miles southwest of the Baja California peninsula has continued to become better organized this morning. First light visible imagery shows cold convective cloud tops near the estimated center that also appear to be rotating cyclonically. While we haven't had any recent C-band scatterometer passes near the center of this system, a recent KU-band scatterometer showed plenty of non-rain contaminated winds to help confirm that a closed circulation exists. Subjective Dvorak classifications were up to T2.0/30-kt from TAFB and T1.5/25-kt from SAB. A recently arriving SSMIS pass at 1159 UTC also showed a well-defined curve band wrapping at least 75 percent around the northwestern side of the system. All these data indicate a new tropical depression has formed, and the initial intensity will be set at 30 kt this advisory. Currently the depression is moving westward at 275/6 kt. A large deep-layer ridge is situated north of the cyclone which should steer it on a general westward to west-southwestward heading over the next day or so. Afterwards, the larger circulation of Tropical Storm Frank is expected to get close enough to initiate binary interaction with the depression. The net result of this interaction is that the depression is likely to bend even more southward than the larger-scale steering flow would initially suggest, and there is some chance that Frank may capture the smaller depression. For now, the track forecast keeps Frank and TD Eight-E separate, showing a very slow west-northwestward motion towards the end of the forecast period. This track forecast is roughly follows the TVCE aid early on, but is slower later in the forecast period due to uncertainty with interaction with Frank to the east. This initial track forecast is of low confidence. The intensity forecast is also challenging and strongly related to how much interaction this depression has with the larger circulation of Frank. Assuming the depression remains separate, environmental conditions only appear marginally favorable for intensification in the short-term, with moderate easterly vertical wind shear, and plenty of nearby dry air that could get ingested into the small circulation at any time. For these reasons, the intensity forecast only shows modest intensification over the next 24-48 hours and caps the storm at 40 kt thereafter due to uncertainty in its future evolution near Frank. This is roughly in line with the latest SHIPS guidance, but is lower than the HCCA and other consensus intensity aids which are biased by the larger and stronger wind field of Frank later on in the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 16.3N 114.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 16.0N 115.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 15.2N 117.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 14.4N 118.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 14.0N 118.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 30/0000Z 14.0N 119.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 14.3N 119.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 31/1200Z 15.0N 121.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 01/1200Z 16.1N 124.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 27 Jul 2022 14:56:01 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 27 Jul 2022 15:28:28 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 27 2022 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 271455 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082022 1500 UTC WED JUL 27 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 115W 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 10N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 15N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 6(13) 11(24) 7(31) 1(32) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Jul 27 2022 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 271455 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eight-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022 900 AM MDT Wed Jul 27 2022 ...ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EAST PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 114.8W ABOUT 555 MI...895 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight-E was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 114.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual turn west-southwestward over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today or tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Papin

...ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EAST PACIFIC... As of 9:00 AM MDT Wed Jul 27 the center of Eight-E was located near 16.3, -114.8 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 27 2022 163 WTPZ23 KNHC 271454 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082022 1500 UTC WED JUL 27 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 114.8W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 114.8W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 114.2W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 16.0N 115.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 15.2N 117.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 14.4N 118.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 14.0N 118.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 14.0N 119.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 14.3N 119.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 15.0N 121.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 16.1N 124.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 114.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 27 Jul 2022 14:54:20 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 27 Jul 2022 15:22:36 GMT

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Jul 27 2022 536 WTPZ42 KNHC 271452 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Frank Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022 1000 AM CDT Wed Jul 27 2022 Frank continues to feel the effects of about 20 kt of northeasterly vertical wind shear, with the low-level center remaining just northeast of the current convective burst. Various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are in the 35-40 kt range, and these have changed little since the last advisory. Based on this, the initial intensity remains 35 kt. The global models suggest that the current shear should ease over the next 12-24 h and allow Frank to gradually strengthen. Between 24-72 h, the shear is forecast to become light while the cyclone is over 28-29C sea surface temperatures, and this environment could allow for steady, and possible rapid, intensification. The forecast peak intensity of 75 kt is unchanged from the previous forecast due to uncertainty as to whether Frank will have a good enough structure to rapidly intensify. However, this is in the middle of the intensity guidance and could be conservative. After 72 h, Frank should move over decreasing sea surface temperatures, and this should cause weakening. Frank is wobbling between a westward and west-northwestward motion with the current motion of 285/9. A subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone should continue to steer Frank generally westward for the next 36 h or so, followed by a west-northwestward motion from 36-72 h. After that time, the cyclone is expected to moved more northwestward toward a break in the ridge caused by by a mid- to upper-level trough developing over the Pacific west of California. The new official forecast rack is similar to the previous track through 60 h, and then is nudged a little to the north of the previous forecast in response to a northward shift of the guidance. The new forecast is close to or a little south of the various consensus models. It should be noted that Frank and the newly-formed Tropical Depression Eight-E are likely to come close enough to one another to interact. The global models suggest that Frank will be the larger and dominant system during this interaction, and that the depression will have only minor impacts on the track and intensity of Frank. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 12.4N 105.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 12.7N 107.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 13.1N 109.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 13.5N 111.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 14.1N 112.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 30/0000Z 15.0N 114.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 16.1N 116.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 31/1200Z 18.5N 119.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 01/1200Z 20.5N 123.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 27 2022 623 FOPZ12 KNHC 271451 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM FRANK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072022 1500 UTC WED JUL 27 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CLIPPERTON IS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 10N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 110W 34 X 6( 6) 8(14) 2(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 7(26) X(26) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 10N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 61(75) 1(76) 1(77) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 36(37) 1(38) X(38) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 1(17) X(17) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) X(13) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) 2(21) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 33(34) 19(53) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 14(23) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Jul 27 2022 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 271451 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Frank Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022 1000 AM CDT Wed Jul 27 2022 ...FRANK SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.4N 105.9W ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 770 MI...1240 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Frank was located near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 105.9 West. Frank is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A generally westward motion is expected through Thursday night, with a turn toward the west-northwest expected on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today. Gradual strengthening is expected to begin tonight and continue through Friday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

...FRANK SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS... As of 10:00 AM CDT Wed Jul 27 the center of Frank was located near 12.4, -105.9 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 27 2022 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 271451 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM FRANK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072022 1500 UTC WED JUL 27 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 105.9W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 105.9W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 105.4W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 12.7N 107.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 13.1N 109.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 13.5N 111.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 80SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 14.1N 112.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 15.0N 114.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 16.1N 116.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 18.5N 119.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 20.5N 123.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 105.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 261750
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Jul 26 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Frank, located several hundred miles south
of the southern coast of Mexico.

South of Baja California peninsula:
Shower activity associated with a low pressure area located several
hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula has become better organized since this morning.
Additional development of this system is possible during the next
day or so while it remains near stationary, and a tropical
depression could form during this time. After that, interaction
with Tropical Storm Frank to the east of this system is expected to
prevent further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Frank are issued under WMO
header WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Frank are issued under WMO
header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

$$
Forecaster Beven