National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 20 2022 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 201436 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062022 1500 UTC WED JUL 20 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 125W 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH/BUCCI

Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Jul 20 2022 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 201436 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Estelle Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022 800 AM PDT Wed Jul 20 2022 ...ESTELLE EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.2N 120.7W ABOUT 700 MI...1130 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Estelle was located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 120.7 West. Estelle is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Estelle is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Bucci

...ESTELLE EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON THURSDAY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Wed Jul 20 the center of Estelle was located near 21.2, -120.7 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 20 2022 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 201435 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062022 1500 UTC WED JUL 20 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 120.7W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 30SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 120.7W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 120.1W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.6N 122.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.1N 124.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.5N 125.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.9N 127.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.2N 128.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 23.5N 129.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 120.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH/BUCCI

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191727
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Jul 19 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Estelle, located several hundred miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is expected to form later this week a
few hundred miles offshore of Central America and southern Mexico.
Some gradual development is possible late this week or this weekend
while the system moves generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci

Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Jul 19 2022 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 191443 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Estelle Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022 800 AM PDT Tue Jul 19 2022 Estelle remains quite disorganized this morning, with most of the fragmented convection over the eastern semicircle of the circulation. The storm center passed just north of Clarion Island where an automated Mexican Navy weather station measured winds near tropical-storm-force strength. The central pressure of Estelle was adjusted slightly lower based on the reported observations. Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB ranged from 65 kt to 45 kt, respectively and the initial intensity is held at 55 kt to represent a blend of the classifications. A gradual weakening trend is expected to continue through the forecast period. While the vertical wind shear is not expected to be strong, the center of Estelle is now crossing over sea surface temperatures cooler than 26 degrees C and into a drier, more stable air mass. These atmospheric and oceanic conditions will make it difficult for the storm to retain or develop organized deep convection. This should result in a gradual spindown of the circulation. The official intensity forecast follows the multi-model consensus guidance and now predicts Estelle to become a post-tropical cyclone in a couple of days. The track philosophy is unchanged. Estelle is moving west-northwestward at 10 kt and is following the steering currents of a mid-level ridge to its north-northeast. This motion is predicted to continue for the next couple of days until the storm becomes a remnant low and turns westward in the low-level trade winds. The NHC track forecast is quite similar to the previous advisory and close to the consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 19.0N 115.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 19.6N 117.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 20.5N 119.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 21.3N 121.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 22.0N 123.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 22/0000Z 22.5N 125.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 22/1200Z 22.8N 127.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 23/1200Z 23.0N 130.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 24/1200Z 23.0N 133.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch/Bucci

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 19 Jul 2022 14:39:49 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 19 Jul 2022 15:22:43 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 19 2022 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 191439 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062022 1500 UTC TUE JUL 19 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 115W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 120W 34 1 39(40) 9(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) 20N 120W 50 X 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 120W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH/BUCCI

Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Jul 19 2022 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 191438 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Estelle Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022 800 AM PDT Tue Jul 19 2022 ...ESTELLE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.0N 115.5W ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Estelle was located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 115.5 West. Estelle is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast and Estelle is likely to become a post-tropical cyclone by Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Estelle will diminish along the coasts of southwestern Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula today. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Bucci

...ESTELLE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN... As of 8:00 AM PDT Tue Jul 19 the center of Estelle was located near 19.0, -115.5 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 19 2022 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 191437 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062022 1500 UTC TUE JUL 19 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 115.5W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 40SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 115.5W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 115.1W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 19.6N 117.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.5N 119.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.3N 121.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.0N 123.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.5N 125.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.8N 127.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 23.0N 130.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 23.0N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 115.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH/BUCCI

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181717
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Jul 18 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Estelle, located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of
Baja California.

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred miles
off the coast of Central America and southern Mexico late this week.
Some slow development is possible after that time while the system
moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 18 Jul 2022 14:49:29 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 18 Jul 2022 15:22:41 GMT

Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Jul 18 2022 638 WTPZ41 KNHC 181447 TCDEP1 Hurricane Estelle Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022 900 AM MDT Mon Jul 18 2022 Estelle is beginning to look a little better organized based on satellite imagery. First-light visible pictures show the center of the cyclone is now embedded in the central dense overcast. Observations from Socorro Island confirm that they are within the estimated tropical-storm-force radii. Subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB range from 77 kt to 65 kt, respectively. The initial intensity is held at 70 kt, representing a blend of these estimates. Low to moderate northerly wind shear is expected to limit the future strengthening of the system in the next day or so. However, warm sea surface temperatures and plenty of near-storm environmental moisture may allow for some slight intensification within a day. Beyond 36 hours, Estelle should cross the 26 degrees C sea surface isotherm and move over increasingly colder waters. This and the drier surrounding environment should cause the hurricane to weaken to a remnant low by the weekend. The official forecast is slightly higher than the model guidance in the short term forecast and then follows the multi-model consensus guidance after 36 hours. The hurricane is moving west-northwest at about 12 kt. This general motion is predicted to continue for the next few days as Estelle is steered by a mid-level ridge to its north. Later in the forecast period, low-level trade winds should turn the weaker system westward. The NHC track forecast is nearly identical to the previous advisory and only slightly north of the model consensus guidance, TVCE. Estelle is expected to continue producing rough surf and rip current conditions along the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico as well as the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula during the next day or so. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 18.0N 111.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 18.3N 112.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 18.8N 115.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 19.4N 117.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 20.3N 119.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 21/0000Z 21.2N 122.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 22.1N 123.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 22/1200Z 23.2N 127.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 23/1200Z 23.5N 130.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch/Bucci

Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Jul 18 2022 911 WTPZ31 KNHC 181444 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Estelle Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022 900 AM MDT Mon Jul 18 2022 ...ESTELLE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF SOCORRO ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 111.1W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM S OF SOCORRO ISLAND ABOUT 345 MI...560 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Estelle was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 111.1 West. Estelle is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so, but weakening is expected to begin around the middle of the week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). An automated Mexican Navy weather station on Socorro Island recently reported sustained winds of 46 mph (74 km/h) and gusts to 61 mph (98 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Estelle are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, west-central Mexico, and the southern Baja California peninsula. These swells are likely to continue for another day or so and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Bucci

...ESTELLE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF SOCORRO ISLAND... As of 9:00 AM MDT Mon Jul 18 the center of Estelle was located near 18.0, -111.1 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 18 2022 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 181444 PWSEP1 HURRICANE ESTELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062022 1500 UTC MON JUL 18 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ESTELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 110W 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA CLARION 34 16 80(96) 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) ISLA CLARION 50 1 70(71) 2(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) ISLA CLARION 64 X 36(36) 3(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) 15N 115W 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 115W 34 4 56(60) 7(67) 1(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) 20N 115W 50 X 10(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) 20N 115W 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 14(15) 55(70) 7(77) X(77) X(77) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) 7(38) X(38) X(38) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 2(13) X(13) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH/BUCCI

Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 18 2022 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 181442 TCMEP1 HURRICANE ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062022 1500 UTC MON JUL 18 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 111.1W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 50SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 111.1W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 110.5W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.3N 112.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.8N 115.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 19.4N 117.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.3N 119.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.2N 122.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.1N 123.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 23.2N 127.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 23.5N 130.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 111.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH/BUCCI

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 171735
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Jul 17 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Estelle, located a few hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo,
Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Pasch

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 Jul 2022 14:37:05 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 Jul 2022 15:22:43 GMT