National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181154
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Sep 18 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kiko, located over the far southwestern part of the basin, on
Tropical Storm Mario, located several hundred miles south of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on Tropical Storm
Lorena, located a couple of hundred miles south of southwestern
Mexico.

An elongated trough of low pressure lying near the coast of
southeastern Mexico, Guatemala, and El Salvador is producing a large
area of disorganized cloudiness and showers that extends several
hundred miles southward over the Pacific waters. Gradual
development of this system is possible during the next several days,
and a tropical depression could form over the weekend or early next
week while moving westward at 5 to 10 mph. Locally heavy rainfall
is possible along the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and
southeastern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Mario are issued under WMO header
WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.
Forecast/Advisories on Mario are issued under WMO header
WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4.

Public Advisories on Lorena are issued under WMO header
WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5.
Forecast/Advisories on Lorena are issued under WMO header
WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 180857 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 0900 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 17(41) 2(43) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 1(12) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 11(21) 2(23) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 2(16) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 26(36) 18(54) 1(55) X(55) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 10(17) X(17) X(17) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) P VALLARTA 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 13(26) 4(30) X(30) X(30) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 105W 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 23(23) 22(45) 5(50) 2(52) X(52) X(52) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X 3( 3) 7(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MANZANILLO 34 2 51(53) 12(65) 4(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) MANZANILLO 50 X 9( 9) 5(14) 2(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) MANZANILLO 64 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) L CARDENAS 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ZIHUATANEJO 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 21(26) 7(33) X(33) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 8(10) 4(14) X(14) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 180858 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 400 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 Satellite imagery and a 0352 UTC ASCAT-B scatterometer pass indicate that Lorena has strengthened this morning. Subjective and objective intensity estimates as well as the scatterometer overpass support increasing the initial intensity to 50 kt for this advisory. Although the cloud pattern has improved a bit during the past several hours, moderate northeasterly shear still appears to be impinging on the northern portion of the cyclone. The statistical-dynamical GFS and ECMWF Decay SHIPS intensity models both indicate that this upper wind pattern will linger the next couple of days. Consequently, gradual strengthening is expected which is consistent with the aforementioned DSHPS and the NOAA HFIP HCCA intensity consensus model, and Lorena is forecast to become a hurricane in 48 hours. Beyond that period, weakening should commence as the cyclone traverses decreasing oceanic sea surface temperatures and moves within increasing westerly shear. An alternative intensity forecast is for Lorena to dissipate if the center moves onshore in southwestern Mexico which the ECMWF is showing. The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 310/12 kt. A deep-layer ridge extending westward over Mexico from the western Gulf of Mexico is forecast to steer Lorena toward the northwest with a slight reduction in forward speed through day 5. This persistent synoptic steering flow should bring the cyclone near the southwestern coast of Mexico Thursday and Friday. The NHC forecast is a little faster than the previous one and follows the NOAA HFIP HCCA consensus which keeps the cyclone offshore. Key Messages: 1. Lorena is forecast to cause heavy rain over portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco during the next few days. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along a portion of the southwestern coast of Mexico by late Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 16.1N 103.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 17.4N 104.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 18.5N 104.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 19.4N 105.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 20.1N 106.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 21/0600Z 21.5N 108.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 22/0600Z 23.2N 111.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 23/0600Z 25.6N 112.9W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts

Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 180857 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorena Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 400 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 ...LORENA A LITTLE STRONGER... ...MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 103.0W ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 103.0 West. Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A slower northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days. Lorena is forecast to move near or over the southwestern coast of Mexico Thursday or early Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Further slow strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days and Lorena is expected to become a hurricane on Friday as it approaches the coast of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the southern portion of the warning area by late Wednesday or early Thursday, and then are expected to spread northward along the coast through late Thursday. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoaca, Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the southwest coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts

...LORENA A LITTLE STRONGER... ...MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 4:00 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 the center of Lorena was located near 16.1, -103.0 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 09:24:54 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 10:16:21 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 08:58:52 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 08:58:52 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 180857 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 0900 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 103.0W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 60SE 80SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 60SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 103.0W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 102.6W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 17.4N 104.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.5N 104.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 19.4N 105.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.1N 106.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.5N 108.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 60SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 23.2N 111.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 25.6N 112.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 103.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 18/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

...LORENA A LITTLE STRONGER... ...MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 4:00 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 the center of Lorena was located near 16.1, -103.0 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 08:48:14 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 09:49:32 GMT

Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 180847 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 AM PDT Wed Sep 18 2019 Kiko is trying to recover from all of the shear that affected it for the past few days. An earlier microwave pass showed that most of the convection was confined to the southern semicircle. Over the past few hours, deep convection has been looking a little more organized near the storm's center. Whether or not this is the start of a trend is too early to tell, and a blend of the subjective and objective intensity estimates indicate that the initial intensity remains near 45 kt. Kiko continues to move southwest, or 240/04 kt. There is no change to the forecast track philosophy. Kiko will be steered in a mean westerly trajectory for the next several days by mid-level ridging to the north of the cyclone. Some northward or southward deviations in the forward motion are expected from time to time due to fluctuations in the strength of the ridge. The official forecast is very close to the previous one, and near the multi-model track consensus aids. Kiko is expected to remain in a low shear environment and will soon will be moving over higher oceanic heat content. This should result in gradual strengthening. In a few days, the cyclone will begin to move into a drier and more stable environment which should limit any further intensification during the forecast period. The latest forecast is essentially an update of the previous one, and is near the corrected consensus HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 16.5N 125.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 16.2N 126.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 16.1N 127.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 16.3N 128.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 16.6N 129.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 21/0600Z 17.2N 130.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 22/0600Z 16.7N 132.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 23/0600Z 16.0N 135.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto

Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 180846 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0900 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 15N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) 18(29) 14(43) 6(49) 2(51) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) 1(13) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 20N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 14(20) 7(27) 2(29) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 29(42) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER LATTO

Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 180845 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 AM PDT Wed Sep 18 2019 ...KIKO STOPS WEAKENING AS IT HEADS SOUTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 125.9W ABOUT 1130 MI...1815 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 125.9 West. Kiko is moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), but it is expected to turn toward the west by Thursday, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest by Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected to begin by tonight, and Kiko could become a hurricane again by late Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto

...KIKO STOPS WEAKENING AS IT HEADS SOUTHWESTWARD... As of 2:00 AM PDT Wed Sep 18 the center of Kiko was located near 16.5, -125.9 with movement WSW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 08:45:33 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 10:08:34 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 180845 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0900 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 125.9W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 125.9W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 125.6W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.2N 126.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.1N 127.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.3N 128.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 16.6N 129.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 17.2N 130.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 16.7N 132.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 16.0N 135.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 125.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 180844 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 300 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019 Mario has done well in fighting off northeasterly shear that continues to impact it, with deep convection extending across the center for much of the night. A recent scatterometer pass indicated that tropical storm force winds now extend up to 80 n mi in the southeast quadrant, and 60 n mi in the northeast quadrant. This pass also indicated that the maximum winds have increased to 40 kt, and this will be the initial advisory intensity. Mario has turned a little to the left, and the initial motion is now 310/09 kt. A mid-level ridge to the northeast of the cyclone should continue to steer it in this general direction through Thursday morning. By late Thursday, a trough digging into the western United States is expected to erode the ridge, and the steering currents will collapse. This will result in a decrease in forward speed and eventually Mario is expected to become nearly stationary through Friday night. By Saturday, the ridge is forecast to rebuild over Mexico, which would result in Mario beginning a north-northwest motion. The official forecast track is high confidence through 72 hours and in the middle of tightly clustered consensus guidance. After 72 hours when the cyclone is expected to begin moving again, the guidance diverges and has shifted a little to the east. The official forecast was also shifted a little to the east, but remains west of the consensus aids during that time frame. The shear affecting Mario is expected to continue for the duration of the forecast period, while tropical cyclone Lorena remains to the northeast. Warm waters and a favorable atmospheric environment aside from the shear should allow for gradual strengthening for the next couple of days, and Mario is forecast to become a hurricane by Friday. By Saturday, Mario will begin to move into a drier and more stable environment, while the shear remains. This should cause a weakening trend to begin and continue through the end of the forecast period. The official forecast is similar to the previous one, and is on the higher end of the consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 13.7N 110.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 14.7N 111.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 15.7N 112.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 16.4N 112.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 16.7N 113.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 21/0600Z 17.5N 112.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 22/0600Z 19.0N 113.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 23/0600Z 21.0N 114.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto

Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 180844 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 300 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019 ...MARIO SLOWLY STRENGTHENING AS IT CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 110.1W ABOUT 635 MI...1025 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 110.1 West. Mario is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This motion is expected to continue through tonight, with a decrease in forward speed beginning on Thursday. Mario is expected to become nearly stationary early Friday through Friday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Mario is expected to become a hurricane by Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Latto

...MARIO SLOWLY STRENGTHENING AS IT CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD... As of 3:00 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 the center of Mario was located near 13.7, -110.1 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 180844 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 0900 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 15N 110W 34 56 4(60) 2(62) 1(63) 2(65) 2(67) X(67) 15N 110W 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 7(12) 7(19) 2(21) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) 8(18) 17(35) 10(45) 2(47) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 1(11) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 11(21) 21(42) 13(55) 6(61) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 10(18) 2(20) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 15N 115W 34 X 3( 3) 9(12) 8(20) 10(30) 3(33) 1(34) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 9(16) 17(33) 13(46) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) $$ FORECASTER LATTO