National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 06 2022 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 061444 TCMEP4 HURRICANE BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022 1500 UTC WED JUL 06 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 109.0W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 108.9W AT 06/1500Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 108.4W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 16.5N 110.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 40NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 17.0N 113.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 17.6N 115.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 18.2N 119.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 18.8N 122.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 19.2N 126.4W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 19.4N 133.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 108.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 051719
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Jul 5 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Bonnie, located a couple of hundred miles south of southwestern
Mexico.

1. Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is expected to form well south of the
southern coast of Mexico toward the end of the week. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development
of this system over the weekend while it moves generally
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 05 Jul 2022 14:38:29 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 05 Jul 2022 15:22:52 GMT

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 051437 TCDEP4 Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022 1000 AM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022 Earlier microwave images reveal a well-developed inner core structure with a 10-nm-wide eye, and impressive curved band features in the west and south parts of the cyclone. The surrounding cloud tops have cooled quite a bit during the past few hours, but the eye temperature hasn't warmed that much. The initial intensity is increased to 100 kt for this advisory and is supported by a blend of the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. It appears as though modest northeasterly shear has begun to restrict the outflow some in the north portion of the cyclone, and this shear is expected to persist during the next 24 hours. Consequently, some fluctuations in strength are possible during the period and the NHC forecast shows a slight increase in intensity in 12 hours in deference to the recent inner core improvement. Afterward, the inhibiting shear should decrease, however,the GFS and ECMWF SHIPS intensity models show the cyclone traversing cooler oceanic surface temperatures and moving into a less favorable thermodynamic surrounding environment. A combination of these negative intensity contributions should cause Bonnie to slowly weaken through the remainder of the period and the official forecast follows suit. Bonnie's initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 280/12 kt. A mid-tropospheric ridge anchored to the north of the cyclone should keep it on a west to west-northwest heading through the entire forecast period. Around mid-period, however, a weakness in the ridge is forecast to develop over the Baja California peninsula, which should temporarily slow Bonnie's forward speed. The track forecast is a little faster than the previous one beyond day 3 and is based on the TVCE multi-model consensus aid. Although the core of Bonnie is expected to remain well south of Mexico, rough surf and the potential for rip currents will continue to affect southwestern Mexico for another day or two. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 15.3N 104.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 15.6N 106.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 16.0N 108.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 16.3N 110.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 16.8N 112.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 08/0000Z 17.4N 115.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 18.2N 118.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 09/1200Z 19.5N 125.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 10/1200Z 20.4N 131.3W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 05 2022 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 051434 PWSEP4 HURRICANE BONNIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022 1500 UTC TUE JUL 05 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 105W 50 93 X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) 15N 105W 64 37 X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) MANZANILLO 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 1 17(18) 48(66) 2(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) 15N 110W 50 X 1( 1) 19(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) 14(16) 13(29) 2(31) X(31) X(31) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 50(69) X(69) X(69) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 30(32) X(32) X(32) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) X(13) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 20(31) 1(32) X(32) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) 1(25) X(25) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) X(12) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 28(48) X(48) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) X(17) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 40(40) 8(48) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 5(17) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 051433 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Bonnie Advisory Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022 1000 AM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022 ...BONNIE BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...FIRST OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC SEASON... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.3N 104.3W ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Bonnie was located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 104.3 West. Bonnie is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion is forecast through the period with a slight decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the core of Bonnie is expected to move parallel to, but remain south of the coast of southwestern Mexico today. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Bonnie is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in strength are possible through Thursday. A gradual weakening trend is expected to begin thereafter. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Bonnie will affect portions of the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts

...BONNIE BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...FIRST OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC SEASON... As of 10:00 AM CDT Tue Jul 5 the center of Bonnie was located near 15.3, -104.3 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 964 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 05 2022 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 051432 TCMEP4 HURRICANE BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022 1500 UTC TUE JUL 05 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 104.3W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 50SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 104.3W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 103.7W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 15.6N 106.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 16.0N 108.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 16.3N 110.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.8N 112.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 17.4N 115.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 18.2N 118.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 19.5N 125.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 20.4N 131.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 104.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 041718
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Jul 4 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Bonnie, located a couple of hundred miles south of southern Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 04 Jul 2022 14:50:13 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 04 Jul 2022 15:23:38 GMT

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Jul 04 2022 985 WTPZ44 KNHC 041448 TCDEP4 Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022 1000 AM CDT Mon Jul 04 2022 Bonnie's satellite presentation has improved this morning with a ragged eye becoming more apparent in both infrared and visible satellite imagery. An earlier AMSR2 microwave overpass that arrived after the release of the previous advisory, and more recent SSMIS imagery revealed a fairly well-defined low- to mid-level eye feature. Subjective Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and SAB are T4.5 or 77 kt. Objective estimates from UW/CIMSS are lagging a bit, but recent raw T-numbers have increased as the eye has become better defined. The advisory intensity is set at 80 kt, near the higher end of the estimates due to the continued improvement in structure. Bonnie's intensity forecast is a bit tricky this morning as expected subtle changes in shear throughout the forecast period could have larger-than-normal implications on the forecast. In the very near term, some additional strengthening is likely while Bonnie remains within an area of moderate northeasterly shear and otherwise favorable environmental conditions. The NHC wind speed forecast is near the high end of the guidance during the first 12-24 hours given the recent upward trend in organization. The shear is forecast to increase on Tuesday, which the guidance suggests will cause Bonnie's intensity to plateau or perhaps fluctuate over the next 2-3 days. By 72 hours, global models now indicate that the shear will decrease while the system is still over marginally warm water. As a result, the NHC forecast keeps Bonnie's intensity slightly higher through 96 h than the previous advisory. Shortly after that time, rapid weakening is likely to begin as the cyclone moves over waters less than 26C and into a less favorable thermodynamic environment. Bonnie is moving briskly westward to west-northwestward with a longer term motion of 285/16 kt. The track forecast reasoning has not changed over the past day or so. Bonnie should continue to move generally west-northwestward with some reduction in forward speed while it is steered by a large mid-level to the north. This motion will take Bonnie roughly parallel to but well offshore the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next day or two. The latest NHC track forecast is again an update of the previous advisory, and it remains close to the TVCE multi-model consensus aid. The forecast keeps tropical-storm-force winds associated with Bonnie offshore the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico, but coastal locations can still expect rough surf and the potential for rip currents today and Tuesday as Bonnie passes offshore. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 13.7N 99.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 14.4N 101.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 15.1N 104.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 15.6N 106.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 16.0N 108.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 07/0000Z 16.2N 110.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 16.4N 112.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 17.6N 117.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 09/1200Z 19.1N 124.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 04 2022 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 041448 PWSEP4 HURRICANE BONNIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022 1500 UTC MON JUL 04 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 1 67(68) 28(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) 15N 105W 50 X 20(20) 55(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) 15N 105W 64 X 6( 6) 44(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MANZANILLO 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) L CARDENAS 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ZIHUATANEJO 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 100W 34 90 X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) 15N 100W 50 14 X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) 15N 100W 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ACAPULCO 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 35(40) 30(70) X(70) X(70) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 26(33) X(33) X(33) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) X(16) X(16) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 1(12) X(12) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 23(30) 1(31) X(31) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 35(54) 1(55) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) X(22) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 31(49) X(49) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 1(18) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 18(23) X(23) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 11(22) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 28(41) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 04 2022 234 WTPZ24 KNHC 041447 TCMEP4 HURRICANE BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022 1500 UTC MON JUL 04 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 99.0W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 99.0W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 98.3W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 14.4N 101.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 15.1N 104.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 15.6N 106.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 16.0N 108.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 16.2N 110.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.4N 112.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 17.6N 117.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 19.1N 124.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 99.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Jul 04 2022 235 WTPZ34 KNHC 041447 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Bonnie Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022 1000 AM CDT Mon Jul 04 2022 ...BONNIE STRENGTHENING... ...BRINGING ROUGH SURF AND THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS TO PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 99.0W ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Bonnie was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 99.0 West. Bonnie is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). A west- northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Bonnie is expected to move parallel to, but remain south of, the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next day or two. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast today, followed by little overall change in intensity Tuesday and Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The outer rain bands of Bonnie could cause areas of heavy rainfall during the next day or so across portions of southern and southwestern Mexico. SURF: Swells generated by Bonnie will affect portions of the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

...BONNIE STRENGTHENING... ...BRINGING ROUGH SURF AND THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS TO PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... As of 10:00 AM CDT Mon Jul 4 the center of Bonnie was located near 13.7, -99.0 with movement WNW at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 982 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031713
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Jul 3 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Bonnie, located a couple of hundred miles south of southern
Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 03 Jul 2022 14:47:04 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 03 Jul 2022 15:22:41 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUL 03 2022 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 031445 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022 1500 UTC SUN JUL 03 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE COASTS OF GUATEMALA AND SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 92.4W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 92.4W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 91.7W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 12.5N 94.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 13.3N 97.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 14.1N 100.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 14.9N 103.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 15.4N 105.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.7N 108.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 16.2N 112.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 17.0N 117.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 92.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 031435 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022 1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022 Bonnie appears to be gradually gaining strength. Satellite images show a strong convective band, with a significant amount of lightning, on the western side of the system. Recent microwave data indicate than an inner core is becoming better established, with hints of an eye apparent in the 37 GHz channel. The latest Dvorak classifications were both 3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB, and the initial intensity is nudged up to 55 kt based on that data. The storm is currently experiencing a moderate amount of easterly shear, but that is expected to let up some during the next day or so. The improving upper-level wind pattern combined with a moist air mass and warm SSTs should allow Bonnie to steadily strengthen through Monday. Rapid intensification is a possibility, and the SHIPS model shows a fair chance (40 percent) of that occurring within the next 24 hours. In a couple of days, however, easterly shear is expected to increase and SSTs gradually cool beneath the system. These factors should end the strengthening trend and perhaps induce slow weakening. The NHC intensity forecast shows a faster rate of strengthening than the previous one in the short term, but is otherwise unchanged. Bonnie is still moving relatively quickly westward at 280/14 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should steer Bonnie westward to west-northwestward during the next several days, roughly parallel to the coast of southern Mexico. The track models are in good agreement, and the new forecast lies close to the various consensus aids. Based on the forecast, no watches are required for Guatemala or southern/southwestern Mexico, but interests there should closely monitor updates, as a northward adjustment to the track could require tropical storm watches for portions of this coastline. The main impact from Bonnie is expected to be rough surf and the potential for rip currents along the coast of Guatemala today and southern/southwestern Mexico Monday and Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 11.9N 92.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 12.5N 94.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 13.3N 97.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 14.1N 100.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 14.9N 103.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 06/0000Z 15.4N 105.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 15.7N 108.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 16.2N 112.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 08/1200Z 17.0N 117.3W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUL 03 2022 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 031434 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022 1500 UTC SUN JUL 03 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 105W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 15N 105W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 33(35) 49(84) X(84) X(84) 15N 105W 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 42(48) X(48) X(48) 15N 105W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) X(25) X(25) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) 10N 100W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 100W 34 X 2( 2) 69(71) 4(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) 15N 100W 50 X X( X) 23(23) 4(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) 15N 100W 64 X X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) ACAPULCO 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) P MALDONADO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P ANGEL 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 95W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 36(63) 1(64) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 25(29) 1(30) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 1(15) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) 2(25) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 26(38) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 26(40) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI