National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 241439 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 900 AM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022 Little by little, Celia is becoming better organized. Deep-layer shear has decreased markedly from a few days ago, but the cyclone still appears to be in the process of mixing out some of the dry air that got into the circulation. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates now range from 55 to 65 kt, therefore Celia's estimated intensity is increased to 55 kt on this advisory. Celia is moving slowly toward the west-northwest (290/7 kt) to the south of a mid-level ridge that stretches across the southern United States and northern Mexico. The ridge is not particularly strong, however, and this pattern is likely to cause Celia to slow down further to around 5 kt during the next 12-24 hours. After 24 hours, the ridge is expected to strengthen and expand westward, causing Celia to gradually accelerate through day 5. The guidance envelope is tightly packed, and the updated NHC track forecast is unchanged from the 09z forecast. Shear diagnoses from the SHIPS model indicate that deep-layer shear is likely to be less than 10 kt during the entire 5-day forecast period. However, the limiting factor to Celia's intensity will be sea surface temperatures. Celia still has an opportunity to strengthen further, possibly to a hurricane, during the next 24 hours or so before it begins to cross the tight SST gradient near Socorro Island. Gradual weakening is forecast after 36 hours over colder waters, and Celia is likely to lose its deep convection and become post-tropical by day 4. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 17.1N 109.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 17.4N 109.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 17.9N 110.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 18.5N 111.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 19.1N 113.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 27/0000Z 19.6N 115.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 20.2N 117.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 28/1200Z 21.5N 122.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 29/1200Z 22.4N 126.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 241439 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Celia Advisory Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 900 AM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022 ...CELIA STRONGER AND COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 109.0W ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM SE OF SOCORRO ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Celia was located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 109.0 West. Celia is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). Celia is forecast to slow down later today and tonight but then gradually accelerate on a west-northwestward course late Saturday into Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Celia could become a hurricane tonight or on Saturday. Weakening is expected to begin Saturday night or Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells are affecting portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the southern Baja California peninsula and the coast of west-central Mexico today and Saturday. These conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

...CELIA STRONGER AND COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON SATURDAY... As of 9:00 AM MDT Fri Jun 24 the center of Celia was located near 17.1, -109.0 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUN 24 2022 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 241439 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022 1500 UTC FRI JUN 24 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 2 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 110W 34 2 10(12) 10(22) 3(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) ISLA SOCORRO 34 4 59(63) 23(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 8( 8) 25(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ISLA CLARION 34 1 1( 2) 7( 9) 24(33) 17(50) 1(51) X(51) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) X(14) X(14) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 20(26) 35(61) 1(62) X(62) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) X(22) X(22) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 19(26) 1(27) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUN 24 2022 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 241438 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022 1500 UTC FRI JUN 24 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 109.0W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 75SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 109.0W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 108.8W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 17.4N 109.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...130NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 17.9N 110.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.5N 111.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 19.1N 113.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 19.6N 115.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 20.2N 117.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 21.5N 122.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 22.4N 126.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 109.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241137
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Jun 24 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Celia, located a few hundred miles southwest of the coast of
southwestern Mexico.

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form well offshore of
southern Mexico early next week. Environmental conditions could
support some slow development of this system thereafter as it moves
generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 23 Jun 2022 14:39:26 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 23 Jun 2022 15:23:59 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUN 23 2022 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 231437 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022 1500 UTC THU JUN 23 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 105W 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MANZANILLO 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 1 4( 5) 10(15) 5(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) 20N 110W 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) 10(20) 7(27) 1(28) X(28) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 4( 4) 18(22) 32(54) 16(70) 1(71) X(71) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 14(29) X(29) X(29) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 35(40) 12(52) X(52) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 8(19) X(19) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 29(32) 22(54) 1(55) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 14(21) X(21) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 12(23) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Jun 23 2022 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 231437 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 900 AM MDT Thu Jun 23 2022 Celia is a bit of a conundrum. The strong east-northeasterly shear which was affecting the system over the past couple of days has lessened and turned out of the north, but the cyclone may have ingested so much dry air during that time that it's now struggling to produce much convection near its center. That said, new convection has recently been developing just to the east of the center. The initial intensity is being generously held at 45 kt, at the upper end of the estimate range, in the hopes that we'll get some scatterometer data later today. The storm's 12-hour motion is northwestward, or 315/11 kt, but there are signs it may be turning back to the west-northwest. There are no changes in the forecast track reasoning, with mid-level high pressure over northern Mexico still expected to drive Celia west-northwestward for the next 4 days or so. A westward turn is expected by day 5 as a weaker Celia is steered by lower-level winds. The biggest change this morning is that there is much tighter spread among the guidance, with the HWRF no longer a southern outlier as in previous days. Confidence in the track forecast is therefore higher than it had been. The big question for intensity is whether the dry air near the core can be mixed out and allow deep convection to organize near the center. The environment appears conducive for that to happen, with shear expected to be generally low and SSTs to be 26 degrees or higher for the next 2 days or so. The peak intensity in the NHC forecast has been lowered slightly due to time over warm waters being a limiting factor, but Celia still has the potential to become a hurricane during the next couple of days. Much colder waters and a more stable atmosphere should cause Celia to become post-tropical by day 5. The initial 12-foot seas radii have been adjusted and expanded significantly over Celia's eastern semicircle by TAFB based on data from a 0730 UTC Cryosat-2 pass. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 16.0N 106.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 16.6N 107.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 17.0N 108.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 17.3N 109.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 17.8N 110.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 26/0000Z 18.5N 112.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 19.1N 113.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 20.5N 117.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 28/1200Z 21.4N 122.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Berg

...CELIA HAS ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS... As of 9:00 AM MDT Thu Jun 23 the center of Celia was located near 16.0, -106.0 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Jun 23 2022 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 231437 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Celia Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 900 AM MDT Thu Jun 23 2022 ...CELIA HAS ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 106.0W ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM ESE OF SOCORRO ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Celia was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 106.0 West. Celia is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is expected later today, accompanied by a decrease in forward speed on Friday and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Celia could still become a hurricane by the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells are affecting portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the southern Baja California peninsula and the coast of west-central Mexico on Friday and Saturday. These conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

...CELIA HAS ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS... As of 9:00 AM MDT Thu Jun 23 the center of Celia was located near 16.0, -106.0 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUN 23 2022 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 231436 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022 1500 UTC THU JUN 23 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 106.0W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 106.0W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 105.6W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 16.6N 107.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 17.0N 108.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 17.3N 109.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...160NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 17.8N 110.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...160NE 110SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.5N 112.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...160NE 120SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 19.1N 113.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 110SE 90SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 20.5N 117.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 21.4N 122.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 106.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

049
ABPZ20 KNHC 231124
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Jun 23 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Celia, located a few hundred miles southwest of the coast of
southwestern Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg

049
ABPZ20 KNHC 231124
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Jun 23 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Celia, located a few hundred miles southwest of the coast of
southwestern Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022 441 WTPZ43 KNHC 221433 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022 Strong east-northeasterly shear has not yet abated, and Celia's center remains offset just to the northeast of the main area of deep convection. However, low-cloud lines with embedded convective cells have become more evident in microwave imagery, suggesting that the circulation has become a little more robust. Celia's estimated intensity remains 40 kt, with subjective and objective analyses ranging between 35 and 45 kt. Stronger-than-normal ridging over the south-central United States and northern Mexico continues to steer Celia toward the west-northwest, with a slightly slower motion of 295/10 kt. Even with this stable steering configuration, the track model spread is larger than normal during the first couple of days of the forecast, mainly because the HWRF remains a southern outlier and the GFS is slower than the main pack of models. Model spread is near or lower than normal on days 3 through 5. The updated NHC track forecast is a bit to the right and slower than the previous forecast and the model consensus aids, hedging toward the GFS and ECMWF on the right side of the guidance envelope. All in all, Celia should maintain a general west-northwestward heading through Monday. Model diagnoses indicate that the current magnitude of deep-layer shear should continue for another 6 to 12 hours and then drop to 10 kt or less by 24 hours. With an already-established low-level circulation and SSTs of about 28 degrees Celsius, the lower shear should allow Celia to intensify and reach hurricane strength in a couple of days. That opportunity will be relatively short lived, however, since the cyclone is likely to reach sub-26C waters in about 60 hours. After that time, gradual weakening is anticipated. The NHC intensity is unchanged from the previous forecast and is slightly above the intensity consensus aids during the middle part of the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 13.7N 103.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 14.3N 104.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 15.4N 106.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 16.1N 107.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 16.6N 108.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 25/0000Z 17.2N 110.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 17.9N 111.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 19.3N 114.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 27/1200Z 20.2N 118.1W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUN 22 2022 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 221433 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022 1500 UTC WED JUN 22 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 15N 105W 34 3 47(50) 2(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) 15N 105W 50 X 15(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) 15N 105W 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 21(25) 14(39) 1(40) X(40) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 17(21) 5(26) X(26) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 44(51) 10(61) X(61) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 5(25) X(25) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 33(41) 7(48) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 4(16) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 30(34) 12(46) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 221433 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Celia Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022 ...CELIA CRUISING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 103.7W ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Celia was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 103.7 West. Celia is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A general west-northwestward motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected through Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Celia is expected to become a hurricane by Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells will increase along portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico today and spread northward along the coast through Thursday. Swells could also reach southern portions of the Baja California peninsula by Friday. These conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

...CELIA CRUISING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 10:00 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 the center of Celia was located near 13.7, -103.7 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUN 22 2022 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 221432 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022 1500 UTC WED JUN 22 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 103.7W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 103.7W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 103.4W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 14.3N 104.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 15.4N 106.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 16.1N 107.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.6N 108.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 17.2N 110.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 110SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 17.9N 111.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 110SE 90SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 19.3N 114.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 20.2N 118.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 103.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG