National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 160545
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kiko, located nearly 1000 miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Showers and thunderstorms have increased tonight in association with
an area of low pressure centered several hundred miles
south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Conditions are conducive for
additional development, and a tropical depression could form within
the next two to three days. After mid week, this system is likely
to interact or merge with the disturbance to its east, and further
development after that time is not anticipated.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers centered a few
hundred miles south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is
associated with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form around the middle of the week as the
system moves west-northwestward near, or parallel to, the coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2019 02:33:22 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2019 03:31:26 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 16 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 160232 PWSEP3 HURRICANE KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0300 UTC MON SEP 16 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 15N 125W 34 1 4( 5) 14(19) 13(32) 7(39) 3(42) X(42) 15N 125W 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 125W 34 1 2( 3) 5( 8) 5(13) 5(18) 2(20) X(20) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 12(15) 14(29) 5(34) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) 12(20) 8(28) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 160232 TCDEP3 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 PM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019 Kiko has lost some organization this evening. The eye of the hurricane has been filling, and the convective pattern is not as symmetric as it was earlier today. The initial intensity is lowered only slightly to 110 kt, following a blend of the latest satellite intensity estimates, but this could be a little generous. Recent ASCAT data indicate that although Kiko is a powerful hurricane, its wind field is quite compact. Based on that data, Kiko's tropical-storm-force winds extend no more than 50 n mi from the center, with hurricane-force winds estimated to extend up to 20 n mi from the center. The hurricane is moving westward at about 7 kt, steered by a narrow subtropical ridge to its north. This motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected for about 24 hours. The models all depict Kiko bending to the west-southwest late Monday and Tuesday in response to a ridge building to its northwest. After that time, the model solutions diverge considerably with some taking Kiko to the northwest and others more westward or southwestward. The NHC official track forecast lies roughly near the middle of the guidance envelope, and the bottom line is that Kiko will likely be moving slowly over the eastern Pacific waters during the next several days. The intensity models all show Kiko gradually weakening through the forecast period. Some of this weakening is likely to be a result of upwelling due to its expected slow motion and perhaps intrusions of dry air. The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one and generally follows the guidance of the intensity consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 17.2N 122.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 17.3N 123.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 17.3N 124.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 17.2N 125.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 17.0N 125.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 17.0N 127.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 20/0000Z 17.4N 129.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 21/0000Z 17.6N 131.4W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 16 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 160231 TCMEP3 HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0300 UTC MON SEP 16 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 122.6W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 75SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 122.6W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 122.3W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.3N 123.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.3N 124.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.2N 125.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.0N 125.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 17.0N 127.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 17.4N 129.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 17.6N 131.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 122.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 160231 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Kiko Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 PM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019 ...COMPACT BUT POWERFUL KIKO MOVING SLOWLY OVER OPEN WATERS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 122.6W ABOUT 910 MI...1470 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kiko was located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 122.6 West. Kiko is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h) and a slow westward to west-southwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Kiko is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days. Kiko is a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 954 mb (28.17 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...COMPACT BUT POWERFUL KIKO MOVING SLOWLY OVER OPEN WATERS... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sun Sep 15 the center of Kiko was located near 17.2, -122.6 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 954 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 152332
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kiko, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

A broad area of low pressure centered several hundred miles
south of Manzanillo, Mexico, is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible
during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form
around the middle of the week while it moves slowly
west-northwestward well offshore of the southwestern coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers centered
several hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is associated
with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form around the middle of the week as the system moves
west-northwestward near, or parallel to, the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 152032 TCDEP3 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 PM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019 The satellite presentation of Kiko is improving again during the past couple of hours after the system was looking less organized shortly after the advisory. Overall, the hurricane continues to have a distinct eye and very deep convection in the eyewall. The initial wind speed will remain 115 kt, which is closest to the latest TAFB fix. While there have been no changes to Kiko's forward motion, westward at about 6 kt, the track forecast is changing a fair bit in this advisory. The long-expected weakness in the subtropical ridge in a couple of days continues to have less influence on the forecast path of the hurricane with the bulk of the models shifting southward and slower on this cycle. In addition, the orientation of the ridge extending from the central Pacific could even cause a slightly south-of-west track. The new NHC prediction is adjusted to the south and slower than the previous one, but the UKMET, ECMWF and corrected consensus models are all even farther south, suggesting further modifications could be necessary later. The changes to the track forecast will keep Kiko over warmer water longer than initially thought. However, it is still forecast to move at only about 4 kt by tomorrow-- slow enough to cause significant upwelling under the central core. Thus gradual weakening is anticipated, although the new forecast is at or above the model consensus for the next few days. The only notable difference at long range is a higher forecast intensity, mostly due to the track shifting south about a degree, which keeps the cyclone out of more marginal water temperatures with less shear. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 17.2N 121.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 17.3N 122.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 17.4N 123.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 17.4N 124.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 17.3N 125.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 18/1800Z 17.2N 127.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 19/1800Z 17.4N 129.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 20/1800Z 17.5N 131.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 15 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 152031 PWSEP3 HURRICANE KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 2100 UTC SUN SEP 15 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 20N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 125W 34 1 3( 4) 10(14) 13(27) 9(36) 3(39) 1(40) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 125W 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) 9(19) 6(25) 2(27) 1(28) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 16(25) 7(32) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 13(20) 7(27) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 152031 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Kiko Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 PM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019 ...POWERFUL KIKO MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 121.9W ABOUT 870 MI...1405 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kiko was located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 121.9 West. Kiko is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a slow westward track is forecast during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Kiko is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some slow weakening is forecast during the next 3 days. Kiko is a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm- force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

...POWERFUL KIKO MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sun Sep 15 the center of Kiko was located near 17.2, -121.9 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 950 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 15 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 152031 TCMEP3 HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 2100 UTC SUN SEP 15 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 121.9W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 100SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 121.9W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 121.5W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.3N 122.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.4N 123.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.4N 124.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.3N 125.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 17.2N 127.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 17.4N 129.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 17.5N 131.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 121.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 151747
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kiko, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

An elongated area of low pressure centered several hundred miles
southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible
during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form
by the middle of next week while it moves slowly west-northwestward
well offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers centered
several hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is associated
with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by the middle of the week as the system moves
west-northwestward near, or parallel to, the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 151454 TCDEP3 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 AM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019 Kiko has become a very powerful hurricane overnight, with a warm eye and strong eyewall convection. The cloud pattern is also fairly symmetric, except favoring the western semicircle slightly due to some easterly shear. The initial wind speed is set to 115 kt, which matches the latest ADT and TAFB estimates. The hurricane should be near its peak intensity today while it in is a low-shear, marginal warm-water environment. While those conditions don't change that much during the next few days, Kiko is forecast to be moving fairly slowly over that time, which will likely stir up some cooler waters and help weaken the convection. A steadier weakening is expected at long-range due to an increase in shear. The new forecast is somewhat lower than the last one, but higher than the model consensus. It isn't out of the realm of possibility that Kiko could transition into an annular hurricane, which tend to maintain their intensities higher than average, so I'm hesitant to reduce the forecast too much for now. Kiko is moving westward at about 6 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone is forecast to remain in place for about the next two days, keeping the hurricane on a slow westward track. A weakness or even a break in the ridge is then forecast by all of the models due to a mid-latitude trough, with perhaps a restrengthening of the ridge at long range. There's been a subtle model trend toward supporting the ridge remaining weak but intact, which would favor Kiko moving very slowly westward instead of any significant rightward turn. The latest NHC prediction places a greater weight on the UKMET and ECMWF models and their ensembles, which generally favor the weak ridge scenario. No significant changes were made to the previous forecast track, but the long-range track confidence is low due to the large model spread at that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 17.0N 121.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 17.1N 122.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 17.3N 123.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 17.4N 124.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 17.5N 125.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 17.5N 126.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 19/1200Z 18.0N 129.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 20/1200Z 18.5N 131.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Sep 2019 14:53:55 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Sep 2019 15:31:42 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 15 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 151453 PWSEP3 HURRICANE KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 1500 UTC SUN SEP 15 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 120W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 11(21) 12(33) 4(37) X(37) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) 20N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 11(18) 11(29) 3(32) X(32) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 12(17) 5(22) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 16(21) 10(31) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 151453 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Kiko Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 AM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019 ...KIKO BECOMES A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 121.1W ABOUT 835 MI...1340 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kiko was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 121.1 West. Kiko is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a slow westward track is forecast during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Kiko is now a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some slow weakening is forecast during the next 3 days. Kiko is a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm- force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

...KIKO BECOMES A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sun Sep 15 the center of Kiko was located near 17.0, -121.1 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 950 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 15 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 151452 TCMEP3 HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 1500 UTC SUN SEP 15 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 121.1W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 121.1W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 120.8W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.1N 122.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.3N 123.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.4N 124.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.5N 125.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 17.5N 126.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 18.0N 129.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 18.5N 131.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 121.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE