National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat May 28 2022 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 281433 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Agatha Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022 1000 AM CDT Sat May 28 2022 Satellite images indicate that Agatha continues to gradually become better organized with a central dense overcast feature and a series of curved bands evident in the latest imagery. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were both 2.5/35 kt, but given recent trends, the initial intensity is set a little higher at 40 kt. Agatha is gradually turning to the right, but at a slow forward speed. Smoothing through the wobbles yields an initial motion of 285/4 kt. The storm is expected to gradually make a turn to the north later today or tonight, followed by a slightly faster northeastward motion on Sunday as Agatha becomes embedded in the flow between a ridge to the east and a trough to its northwest. This motion should take the storm inland over southern Mexico on Monday. The NHC track forecast is quite similar to the previous one and near the various consensus aids. The storm is expected to remain in near ideal environmental conditions of very low wind shear, high SSTs and oceanic heat, and a moist mid-level airmass until it reaches the coast of Mexico on Monday. In fact, several of the rapid intensification indices in the SHIPS model are higher than 60 percent, indicative that rapid intensification is a distinct possibility during the next day or so. Given these conditions and guidance, the NHC intensity forecast remains at the high end of the models and calls for Agatha to become a hurricane in 24 hours, with additional strengthening expected until landfall. Based on the current forecast, new watches and warnings will likely be required later today. Key Messages: 1. There is an increasing risk of tropical-storm-force and hurricane-force winds along portions of the southern coast of Mexico Sunday night and Monday, and a Hurricane Watch remains in effect for portions of this area. Interests should closely monitor the progress of this system and updates to the forecast. 2. Heavy rains associated with Agatha will develop over portions of southern Mexico by Sunday and continue through Tuesday. This will pose a threat of potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 13.2N 98.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 13.4N 98.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 13.8N 98.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 14.2N 98.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 14.8N 97.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 31/0000Z 15.8N 96.6W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND 72H 31/1200Z 16.8N 95.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT MAY 28 2022 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 281433 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM AGATHA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012022 1500 UTC SAT MAY 28 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM AGATHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 10N 100W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 100W 34 X 7( 7) 13(20) 7(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29) 15N 100W 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ACAPULCO 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 6(11) 4(15) X(15) X(15) P MALDONADO 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 10(15) 12(27) X(27) X(27) P MALDONADO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) P MALDONADO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P ANGEL 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) 33(44) 32(76) X(76) X(76) P ANGEL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 33(42) X(42) X(42) P ANGEL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) X(21) X(21) HUATULCO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 16(19) 45(64) X(64) X(64) HUATULCO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 26(28) X(28) X(28) HUATULCO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) 15N 95W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 11(16) 25(41) X(41) X(41) 15N 95W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) X(12) 15N 95W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TAPACHULA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT MAY 28 2022 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 281432 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM AGATHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012022 1500 UTC SAT MAY 28 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM SALINA CRUZ TO PUNTA MALDONADO A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF AGATHA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 98.4W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 98.4W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 98.3W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 13.4N 98.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 13.8N 98.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 14.2N 98.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 80SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 14.8N 97.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 80SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 15.8N 96.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 90SE 90SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 16.8N 95.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 98.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 28/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat May 28 2022 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 281432 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Agatha Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022 1000 AM CDT Sat May 28 2022 ...AGATHA MOVING SLOWLY OFF SOUTHERN MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.2N 98.4W ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The southern coast of Mexico from Salina Cruz to Punta Maldonado A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should closely monitor the progress of Agatha. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required for portions of this area later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Agatha was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 98.4 West. Agatha is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the northeast by Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Agatha will approach the southern coast of Mexico on Sunday and make landfall there on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional steady to rapid strengthening is forecast, and Agatha is expected to become a hurricane on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area on Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible late Sunday or early Monday. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore winds. The surge may be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Agatha will produce heavy rains over portions of southern Mexico by Sunday into Tuesday night. The following rainfall amounts are currently expected: Mexican state of Oaxaca: 10 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur. Mexican states of Chiapas and the eastern portions of Guerrero: 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur. Mexican states of Vera Cruz and Tabasco: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches possible. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...AGATHA MOVING SLOWLY OFF SOUTHERN MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sat May 28 the center of Agatha was located near 13.2, -98.4 with movement WNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

612
ABPZ20 KNHC 281119
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat May 28 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Agatha, located a little over 200 miles
south-southwest of Puerto Angel, Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Agatha are issued under WMO
header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Agatha are issued under
WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 271134
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri May 27 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec continue to show signs of organization. Environmental
conditions are conducive for additional development, and a tropical
depression is expected to form within the next day or so while it
moves west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph. Further development of
this system will be possible over the weekend while it turns
northward toward southern Mexico, and interests there should monitor
the progress of this disturbance. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall, which could cause flash flooding, is
possible along coastal sections of Guatemala and southern Mexico
during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 261140
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu May 26 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased and become a bit more
concentrated near a surface trough located a few hundred miles
south-southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by this weekend while the system moves
west-northwestward or northwestward at 5 to 10 mph. Interests in
southern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Central portion of the eastern Pacific:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has diminished in association with
the trough of low pressure located several hundred miles off the
coast of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions are becoming
increasingly unfavorable, and significant development of this
system is no longer expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 251136
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed May 25 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with a
surface trough located a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive
for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form late this week or this weekend while the system moves
west-northwestward or northwestward at 5 to 10 mph. Interests in
southern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Central portion of the eastern Pacific:
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles off the coast
of southwestern Mexico continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions could support some slow
development during the next day or so, but upper-level winds are
forecast to become less conducive for further development by late
this week while the system moves little.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241137
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue May 24 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central portion of the eastern Pacific:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles
off the coast of southwestern Mexico are associated with a trough
of low pressure. Environmental conditions could support some slow
development during the next couple of days while this system
moves little. Upper-level winds are forecast to become too strong
for development late this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form in a couple of
days a few hundred miles south or southwest of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Further development is possible thereafter, and a
tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend while
the system moves west-northwestward or northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 231133
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon May 23 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

East-Central Pacific well offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of
the coast of Mexico continues to produce a broad area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear marginally conducive for some slow development while this
system drifts eastward through the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form around midweek a
few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gradual
development is possible thereafter while this system moves slowly
westward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

104
ABPZ20 KNHC 221130
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun May 22 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Blake

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211132
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat May 21 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201120
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri May 20 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191122
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu May 19 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181125
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed May 18 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 171125
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue May 17 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 161114
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon May 16 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 151114
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun May 15 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Today marks the first day of the eastern North Pacific hurricane
season, which will run until November 30. Long-term averages for
the number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are
15, 8, and 4, respectively.

The list of names for 2022 is as follows:

Name Pronunciation Name Pronunciation
-------------------------------------------------------------
Agatha A-guh-thuh Madeline MAD-eh-luhn
Blas blahs Newton NOO-tuhn
Celia SEEL-yuh Orlene or-LEEN
Darby DAR-bee Paine payne
Estelle eh-STELL Roslyn RAWZ-luhn
Frank frank Seymour SEE-mor
Georgette jor-JET Tina TEE-nuh
Howard HOW-urd Virgil VUR-jill
Ivette ee-VET Winfred WIN-ih-fred
Javier hahv-YAIR Xavier ZAY-vee-ur
Kay kay Yolanda yo-LAHN-da
Lester LESS-tur Zeke zeek

This product, the Tropical Weather Outlook, briefly describes
significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for
tropical cyclone formation during the next five days. The issuance
times of this product are 5 AM, 11 AM, 5 PM, and 11 PM PDT. After
the change to standard time in November, the issuance times are
4 AM, 10 AM, 4 PM, and 10 PM PST.

A Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued to provide
updates, as necessary, in between the regularly scheduled issuances
of the Tropical Weather Outlook. Special Tropical Weather Outlooks
will be issued under the same WMO and AWIPS headers as the regular
Tropical Weather Outlooks.

A standard package of products, consisting of the tropical cyclone
public advisory, the forecast/advisory, the cyclone discussion, and
a wind speed probability product, is issued every six hours for all
ongoing tropical cyclones. In addition, a special advisory package
may be issued at any time to advise of significant unexpected
changes or to modify watches or warnings.

NHC has the option to issue advisories, watches, and warnings for
disturbances that are not yet a tropical cyclone, but which pose the
threat of bringing tropical storm or hurricane conditions to land
areas within 48 hours. For these land-threatening "potential
tropical cyclones", NHC will issue the full suite of advisory and
watch/warning products. Potential tropical cyclones share the
naming conventions currently in place for tropical depressions,
being numbered from a single list (e.g., "One-E", "Two-E",
"Three-E", etc.).

The Tropical Cyclone Update is a brief statement to inform of
significant changes in a tropical cyclone, to post or cancel watches
or warnings, or to provide hourly position updates between
intermediate advisories when the storm center is easily followed by
radar. The Tropical Cyclone Update is also used in lieu of or to
precede the issuance of a special advisory package. Tropical
Cyclone Updates, which can be issued at any time, can be found under
WMO header WTPZ61-65 KNHC, and under AWIPS header MIATCUEP1-5.

All NHC text and graphical products are available on the web at
https://www.hurricanes.gov. More information on NHC text products
can be found at https://www.hurricanes.gov/aboutnhcprod.shtml,
while more information about NHC graphical products can be
found at https://www.hurricanes.gov/aboutnhcgraphics.shtml.

You can also interact with NHC on Facebook at
https://www.facebook.com/NWSNHC. Notifications are available
via Twitter when select NHC products are issued. Information
about our east Pacific Twitter feed is available at
https://www.hurricanes.gov/twitter.php.

$$
Forecaster Brown

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211347
TWOEP

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
550 AM PST Fri Jan 21 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to update information on
the area of low pressure located well to the east-northeast of
Hawaii.

Showers and thunderstorms have decreased and become less organized
in association with an area of low pressure located a little more
than 1000 miles east-northeast of Hilo, Hawaii. This system is
expected to move westward into increasingly unfavorable
environmental conditions during the next day or so, and development
into a subtropical or tropical cyclone is unlikely, although the
low is still producing strong winds on its north side. See High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service for more
information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be
issued by 2 PM PST today, or earlier if conditions warrant.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi