National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 07 Sep 2019 20:35:26 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 07 Sep 2019 21:38:21 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 072034 PWSEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 2100 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 130W 34 28 X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) 25N 135W 34 X 5( 5) 21(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) 25N 135W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 14(17) 1(18) X(18) 25N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) 30N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 1100 AM HST Sat Sep 07 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 072034 TCDEP1 Post-Tropical Cyclone Juliette Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 1100 AM HST Sat Sep 07 2019 Juliette has not produced any deep convection for almost 18 hours, and it is therefore being declared a post-tropical cyclone. A recent ASCAT-C pass showed a small area of 30-35 kt winds to the north of the center, and the initial intensity is therefore being set at 35 kt. A gradual spin down of the circulation is expected with Juliette remaining over waters of 24-25C during the next couple of days. After 48 hours, water temperatures do increase a bit to near 26C, but by then incredibly belligerent westerly shear, on the order of 40-50 kt, is expected to be affecting the remnant low. Still, the global models carry a low through the next 5 days, and that is reflected in the official forecast. The initial motion is 280/11 kt. The low should turn on a due west heading for the next 2-3 days, steered by the low-level trade winds. After day 3, the remnant low is expected to interact with a mid- to upper-level low northeast of the Hawaiian Islands, which could cause it to turn northwestward and slow down by day 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 24.4N 129.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 08/0600Z 24.4N 131.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 08/1800Z 24.4N 133.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 09/0600Z 24.4N 135.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 09/1800Z 24.4N 137.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 10/1800Z 24.6N 141.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 11/1800Z 26.0N 144.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 12/1800Z 27.5N 146.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 072034 TCMEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 2100 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 129.5W AT 07/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 129.5W AT 07/2100Z AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 128.9W FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 24.4N 131.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.4N 133.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.4N 135.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.4N 137.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 24.6N 141.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 26.0N 144.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 27.5N 146.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.4N 129.5W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 1100 AM HST Sat Sep 07 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 072034 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Juliette Advisory Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 1100 AM HST Sat Sep 07 2019 ...JULIETTE DEGENERATES INTO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.4N 129.5W ABOUT 1245 MI...2000 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Juliette was located near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 129.5 West. Juliette is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days, and the low's maximum winds should drop below gale force by tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the post-tropical cyclone please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Berg

...JULIETTE DEGENERATES INTO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 11:00 AM HST Sat Sep 7 the center of Juliette was located near 24.4, -129.5 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 071732
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Sep 7 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Juliette, located about 1200 miles west of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

An area of low pressure is expected to form early next week a few
hundred miles southwest of the southern coast of Mexico. Gradual
development of this system is possible thereafter while it moves
west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 07 Sep 2019 14:50:43 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 07 Sep 2019 15:38:17 GMT

Issued at 500 AM HST Sat Sep 07 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 071446 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 500 AM HST Sat Sep 07 2019 The last bit of Juliette's deep convection--using -50C cloud tops as a proxy--dissipated around 0400 UTC. Although it's likely that the storm's winds are decreasing, recent satellite estimates range from 25 kt from SAB to 45 kt from TAFB and the UW-CIMSS SATCON. Therefore, the initial intensity will remain 40 kt on this advisory. Although Juliette is now departing a minimum in sea surface temperatures (23-24C), ocean waters ahead of the system will remain below 26C for the next 3 days or so. In addition, west- southwesterly vertical shear will be increasing substantially by 48 hours. If deep convection doesn't redevelop soon, Juliette will become a post-tropical cyclone later today, and then maintain that status with surface winds gradually decreasing over the next several days. The low should open up into a trough around day 5. The initial motion is 280/10 kt. Now that the cyclone has become shallow, it is expected to be steered generally westward by the low-level trade winds. The track models are in good agreement on the future track of Juliette through day 4, and no appreciable changes were required from the previous NHC track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 24.2N 128.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 24.3N 130.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 08/1200Z 24.3N 132.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 09/0000Z 24.3N 134.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 09/1200Z 24.2N 136.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 10/1200Z 24.0N 140.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 11/1200Z 24.5N 143.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 071446 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 1500 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 130W 34 25 2(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) 25N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) 6(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) 25N 135W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 1(15) X(15) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 500 AM HST Sat Sep 07 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 071446 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Juliette Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 500 AM HST Sat Sep 07 2019 ...JULIETTE LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.2N 128.4W ABOUT 1175 MI...1890 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Juliette was located near latitude 24.2 North, longitude 128.4 West. Juliette is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through the middle of next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next several days, and Juliette is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Berg

...JULIETTE LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... As of 5:00 AM HST Sat Sep 7 the center of Juliette was located near 24.2, -128.4 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 071445 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 1500 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 128.4W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 128.4W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 127.8W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 24.3N 130.1W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 24.3N 132.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.3N 134.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.2N 136.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 24.0N 140.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 24.5N 143.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.2N 128.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 071131
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Sep 7 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Juliette, located about 1100 miles west of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

An area of low pressure is expected to form early next week a few
hundred miles southwest of the southern coast of Mexico. Gradual
development of this system is possible thereafter while it moves
west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Issued at 1100 PM HST Fri Sep 06 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 070834 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 1100 PM HST Fri Sep 06 2019 Juliette is rapidly declining and is well on its way to becoming post-tropical. Cloud tops have warmed dramatically over the past few hours, and satellite intensity estimates have decreased sharply in turn. ASCAT data that arrived shortly before 06Z revealed that Juliette is not as strong as previously estimated, with max winds of only 35-40 kt. Based on that new info, the intensity has been adjusted down to 40 kt. The main change in the NHC forecast is that it now shows Juliette becoming post-tropical in 24 hours. Given current trends, it could certainly happen much sooner than that. Otherwise, the overall reasoning behind the forecast is the same. Juliette is located over quite cold waters and will steadily spin down over the next several days. The tropical storm has turned westward and should continue heading west through the middle of next week, steered by low-level easterly trade winds. This track will take the soon-to-be remnant low over warmer waters by day 5, and some of the dynamical guidance suggests that Juliette could try to make a comeback at that time. However, extremely high wind shear should prevent any convection that does develop from becoming organized and regeneration is not expected. The NHC track and intensity forecasts remain very close to the various consensus aids throughout the 5-day period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 23.8N 127.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 24.0N 128.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 24.0N 131.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 08/1800Z 24.0N 133.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 09/0600Z 23.9N 135.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 10/0600Z 23.7N 139.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 11/0600Z 23.5N 142.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 12/0600Z 24.0N 145.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 070834 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 0900 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 130W 34 5 11(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) 25N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) 1(11) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Issued at 1100 PM HST Fri Sep 06 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 070833 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Juliette Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 1100 PM HST Fri Sep 06 2019 ...JULIETTE FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.8N 127.1W ABOUT 1090 MI...1755 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Juliette was located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 127.1 West. Juliette is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion should continue into the middle of next week. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Juliette is expected to become a post-tropical remnant low on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

...JULIETTE FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON SATURDAY... As of 11:00 PM HST Fri Sep 6 the center of Juliette was located near 23.8, -127.1 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 070833 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 0900 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 127.1W AT 07/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 127.1W AT 07/0900Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 126.6W FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 24.0N 128.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 24.0N 131.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.0N 133.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.9N 135.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 23.7N 139.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 23.5N 142.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 24.0N 145.0W...DISSIPATED MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.8N 127.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 070523
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Sep 6 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Juliette, located about 1000 miles west of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

An area of low pressure is expected to form early next week a few
hundred miles southwest of the southern coast of Mexico. Gradual
development of this system is possible thereafter while it moves
west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi