National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

122
ABPZ20 KNHC 061131
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Sep 6 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Juliette, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 06 Sep 2019 11:23:40 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 06 Sep 2019 11:23:41 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM HST Thu Sep 05 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 060925 CCA TCDEP1 Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 21...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 1100 PM HST Thu Sep 05 2019 Corrected motion in third paragraph. This evening's satellite presentation is showing a considerable amount of deterioration of Juliette's inner core. The eastern portion of the eyewall has eroded, cloud tops have continue to warm, and it appears as though some drier mid-level air is intruding from the northwest. Subjective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, and the UW-CIMSS Objective T-number supports lowering the initial intensity to 70 kt. Although the upper-level winds are expected to remain in a favorable pattern during the next couple days, the hurricane will be moving over decreasing sea surface temperatures and into increasingly stable thermodynamic conditions. Subsequently, gradual weakening should continue through the entire forecast period, and Juliette is expected to become a remnant low in 3 days, or less. The intensity forecast is basically a compromise of the NOAA HFIP HCCA and the global models beyond the 48-hour period. The initial motion continues to be northwestward, or 305/9 kt. A mid-level ridge extending from the southwestern United States over the eastern Pacific should induce a west-northwestward turn on Friday, and this general motion should continue through the next couple of days. Toward the end of the period, a westward motion should commence as Juliette degenerates into a vertically shallow depression, and eventually, a remnant low, and becomes steered by the low-level tradewind flow. The track forecast is an update of the previous advisory and sides with the TVCE model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 22.4N 122.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 23.0N 124.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 23.6N 126.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 23.8N 128.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 23.8N 130.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 09/0600Z 23.4N 135.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 10/0600Z 23.4N 138.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 11/0600Z 23.8N 141.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 060851 PWSEP1 HURRICANE JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 0900 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 125W 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 25N 125W 34 7 13(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) 20N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 13(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) 25N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 1100 PM HST Thu Sep 05 2019 608 WTPZ31 KNHC 060851 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Juliette Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 1100 PM HST Thu Sep 05 2019 ...JULIETTE ON THE DECLINE... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.4N 122.7W ABOUT 815 MI...1315 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Juliette was located near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 122.7 West. Juliette is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A motion toward the west-northwest should begin later tonight or Friday. A turn toward the west is forecast on Saturday and a general westward motion should continue through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Juliette is expected to become a tropical storm by Friday night, and degenerate into a remnant low on Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Roberts

...JULIETTE ON THE DECLINE... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY... As of 11:00 PM HST Thu Sep 5 the center of Juliette was located near 22.4, -122.7 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 984 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 060851 TCMEP1 HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 0900 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 122.7W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 122.7W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 122.2W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.0N 124.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.6N 126.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 23.8N 128.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.8N 130.6W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.4N 135.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 23.4N 138.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 23.8N 141.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N 122.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 060522
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Sep 5 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Juliette, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 06 Sep 2019 02:51:18 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 06 Sep 2019 09:38:12 GMT

Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Sep 05 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 060249 TCDEP1 Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 800 PM PDT Thu Sep 05 2019 Juliette has remained resilient despite moving over SSTs around 25-26C over the past several hours. Deep convection continues to envelop the center with a ragged eye apparent in both visible and infrared satellite imagery. The latest subjective Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and SAB suggest that the initial intensity remains at 75 kt. The cyclone will be moving over cooler waters of 24-25C tonight and tomorrow, and will remain over these water temperatures for the next several days. This should cause Juliette to slowly weaken. After 48 hours, southwesterly shear is expected to begin to impact Juliette's circulation. The combination of the cooler waters and shear should cause Juliette to become a post-tropical remnant low by 72 hours. The official forecast is very similar to the previous one, and near the various intensity consensus aids. Juliette's initial motion is 305/10 kt. A turn to the west-northwest is expected on Friday as the cyclone is steered by a subtropical ridge to its north. As the cyclone weakens and becomes steered by the low-level flow, a turn to the west is expected. The only notable change to the new official forecast track was a slight increase in forward speed beyond 48 hours, as the consensus aids have come into a little better agreement on a faster forward motion during that time period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 21.8N 121.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 22.6N 123.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 23.3N 125.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 23.7N 127.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 23.7N 129.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 23.5N 133.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 10/0000Z 23.3N 136.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 11/0000Z 23.6N 139.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 060248 PWSEP1 HURRICANE JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 0300 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 120W 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 125W 34 3 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 25N 125W 34 3 23(26) 3(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 25N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 19(24) 6(30) X(30) X(30) 25N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) X(13) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) $$ FORECASTER LATTO

Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Sep 05 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 060248 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Juliette Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 800 PM PDT Thu Sep 05 2019 ...JULIETTE MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.8N 121.8W ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Juliette was located near latitude 21.8 North, longitude 121.8 West. Juliette is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A motion toward the west-northwest should begin tonight or early Friday. A turn toward the west is forecast on Saturday and a general westward motion should continue through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Juliette is forecast to become a tropical storm by Friday night, and degenerate to a remnant low on Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto

...JULIETTE MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY... As of 8:00 PM PDT Thu Sep 5 the center of Juliette was located near 21.8, -121.8 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 976 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 060248 TCMEP1 HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 0300 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 121.8W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 121.8W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 121.3W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.6N 123.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.3N 125.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 23.7N 127.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 23.7N 129.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 23.5N 133.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 23.3N 136.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 23.6N 139.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N 121.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 052324
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Sep 5 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Juliette, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Latto

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 05 Sep 2019 20:35:04 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 05 Sep 2019 21:38:50 GMT

Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Sep 05 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 052033 TCDEP1 Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 200 PM PDT Thu Sep 05 2019 Juliette's structure remains well defined in visible satellite imagery, with a lose banding eye evident. Recent microwaves images, however, indicate that there are some breaks in the band and that the eye is open to the southwest. An average of the latest Dvorak data-T and current intensity (CI) numbers from SAB and TAFB yields a 70 kt estimate, while a UW/CIMSS AMSU estimate indicates 75-kt, and the latter is the basis for the new advisory intensity. Juliette will be moving over decreasing sea surface temperatures and into a drier, and more stable air mass during the next few days. These unfavorable factors should result in gradual weakening of the hurricane. Increasing southwesterly shear by 72 hours is likely to cause a further demise of the cyclone, and Juliette is now anticipated to become post-tropical by day 3. Juliette is moving slightly faster toward the northwest or 305/10 kt. A northwestward to west-northwestward motion around the southwestern portion of a subtropical ridge should continue tonight and Saturday. After that time, a turn toward the west is expected as Juliette weakens and comes under the influence of the low-level easterly steering flow. Although the track guidance is in good agreement on this general scenario, there are some significant differences in the future forward speed of Juliette. Given this model spread, the NHC track prediction remains fairly close to the TVCE multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 21.3N 120.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 22.1N 122.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 23.0N 124.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 23.5N 126.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 23.8N 128.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 23.6N 132.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 09/1800Z 23.3N 135.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 10/1800Z 23.2N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 05 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 052033 PWSEP1 HURRICANE JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 2100 UTC THU SEP 05 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 25N 120W 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 125W 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 25N 125W 34 2 11(13) 11(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 16(30) X(30) X(30) 25N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Sep 05 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 052033 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Juliette Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 200 PM PDT Thu Sep 05 2019 ...JULIETTE FINALLY RESUMES WEAKENING... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.3N 120.9W ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Juliette was located near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 120.9 West. Juliette is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A motion toward the west-northwest should begin tonight or early Friday. A turn toward the west is forecast on Saturday and a general westward motion should continue through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Juliette is forecast to become a tropical storm on Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

...JULIETTE FINALLY RESUMES WEAKENING... As of 2:00 PM PDT Thu Sep 5 the center of Juliette was located near 21.3, -120.9 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 980 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.