National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 041434 PWSEP1 HURRICANE JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 1500 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 120W 34 28 56(84) 1(85) 1(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) 20N 120W 50 1 31(32) 2(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) 20N 120W 64 X 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 25N 120W 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 12(22) 1(23) X(23) 25N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 1(12) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER HOUSTON

Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Sep 04 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 041433 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Juliette Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 800 AM PDT Wed Sep 04 2019 ...JULIETTE WEAKENING OVER THE PACIFIC FAR FROM ANY LAND AREAS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 117.1W ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Juliette was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 117.1 West. Juliette is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). Juliette is expected to move west-northwest at a slightly faster forward speed during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional slow weakening is forecast during the next several days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Houston

...JULIETTE WEAKENING OVER THE PACIFIC FAR FROM ANY LAND AREAS... As of 8:00 AM PDT Wed Sep 4 the center of Juliette was located near 19.5, -117.1 with movement WNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 972 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 511 WTPZ21 KNHC 041432 TCMEP1 HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 1500 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 117.1W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 180SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 117.1W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 116.8W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.1N 118.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.9N 119.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.8N 121.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.7N 123.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 23.4N 127.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 23.0N 131.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 23.0N 135.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 117.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER HOUSTON

730
ABPZ20 KNHC 041156
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Sep 4 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Juliette, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Satellite data indicate that a small area of low pressure has
formed in the far southwestern portion of the eastern Pacific about
1100 miles east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii. The
associated shower and thunderstorm activity has quickly become
better organized overnight and a tropical depression could be
forming. If recent development trends continue, advisories could
be initiated on this system later today or tonight. The system will
be moving into the Central Pacific basin this morning. Future
information on this system can be found in Tropical Weather Outlooks
issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

&&
Tropical Weather Outlooks issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center can be found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP and WMO header
ACPN50 PHFO and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov

$$
Forecaster Blake/Brown

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 04 Sep 2019 10:30:14 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 04 Sep 2019 09:45:15 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 040845 TCMEP1 HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 0900 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 116.4W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 116.4W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 116.1W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.5N 117.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.3N 119.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.1N 120.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.0N 122.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.0N 126.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 23.0N 130.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 23.0N 134.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 116.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER HOUSTON

...JULIETTE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE OPEN OCEAN... As of 2:00 AM PDT Wed Sep 4 the center of Juliette was located near 19.1, -116.4 with movement WNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 966 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.

Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Sep 04 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 040846 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Juliette Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 200 AM PDT Wed Sep 04 2019 ...JULIETTE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE OPEN OCEAN... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 116.4W ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Juliette was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 116.4 West. Juliette is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional slow weakening is forecast during the next several days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Houston

Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 040846 PWSEP1 HURRICANE JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 0900 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 34 5 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 120W 34 4 71(75) 15(90) 1(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) 20N 120W 50 1 19(20) 29(49) 1(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) 20N 120W 64 X 4( 4) 17(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) 25N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 7(15) X(15) X(15) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 1(17) X(17) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 2(12) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER HOUSTON

Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Sep 04 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 040846 TCDEP1 Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 200 AM PDT Wed Sep 04 2019 The appearance of Juliette in satellite continues to show a weakening trend early this morning. Multiple warm spots are evident in infrared imagery, but there has not been a consistent well-defined eye during the past several hours. The latest subjective and objective T-numbers provided by the satellite fix agencies also continue to show gradual weakening. Based on this input, the initial intensity is lowered to 95 kt for this advisory. Note that a 0410z ASCAT pass was used to adjust the initial wind radii for this advisory. The apparent motion appears to be somewhat slower than the previous 12 hours. For this advisory, the initial motion estimate is west-northwestward, or 300/5 kt. Juliette is being steered by the circulation around a mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge extending over the northeastern Pacific from the southwestern United States. This feature is expected to steer Juliette west-northwestward during the next few days. Toward the end of the forecast period, a westward motion is forecast as Juliette weakens and loses most of its deep convection. The weakening system will then likely be steered by the low-level easterly flow. The latest track forecast is close to the previous advisory package, with some nudging toward the most recent NOAA HFIP HCCA, ECMWF ensemble mean, and the GFEX consensus model. Cooler oceanic sea surface temperatures, an intruding dry, stable, surrounding environment, and increasing southwesterly shear should cause steady weakening of the cyclone during the next 5 days. The latest intensity forecast is showing a slightly faster weakening trend compared with the previous advisory package. Note that much of the guidance suggests the weakening trend may be even faster than the official forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 19.1N 116.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 19.5N 117.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 20.3N 119.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 21.1N 120.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 22.0N 122.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 07/0600Z 23.0N 126.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 08/0600Z 23.0N 130.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 09/0600Z 23.0N 134.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Houston

...JULIETTE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE OPEN OCEAN... As of 2:00 AM PDT Wed Sep 4 the center of Juliette was located near 19.1, -116.4 with movement WNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 966 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 040504
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Sep 3 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Juliette, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 04 Sep 2019 03:15:22 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 04 Sep 2019 03:15:22 GMT

Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Sep 03 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 040234 TCDEP1 Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 800 PM PDT Tue Sep 03 2019 A recent AMSR2-GW1 microwave pass showed that Juliette's eyewall had collapsed in the southwestern quadrant. Curved banding features in that portion of the cyclone's cloud pattern have become fragmented as well. Subsequently, it appears that Juliette is on the decline, and both subjective and objective T-numbers support this recent trend. Based on these data, the initial intensity is lowered to 105 kt for this advisory. Cooler oceanic sea surface temperatures, an intruding dry, stable, surrounding environment, and increasing southwesterly shear should cause the cyclone to gradually weaken further, and continue through the entire forecast period. The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward, or 295/6 kt. A mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge extending over the northeastern Pacific from the southwestern United States should steer Juliette west-northwestward through the next several days. Toward the end of the period, a westward motion should commence as Juliette degenerates into a vertically shallow depression, and ultimately, a remnant low, and becomes steered by the low-level easterly flow. The NHC forecast is basically an update of the previous advisory track, and lies between the NOAA HFIP HCCA and TVCE simple multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 19.0N 116.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 19.3N 117.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 20.0N 118.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 20.8N 120.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 21.6N 122.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 23.1N 126.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 08/0000Z 23.5N 130.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 09/0000Z 23.5N 134.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts

Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 040233 TCMEP1 HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 0300 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 116.2W AT 04/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 116.2W AT 04/0300Z AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 115.9W FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.3N 117.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.0N 118.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.8N 120.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.6N 122.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.1N 126.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 23.5N 130.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 23.5N 134.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 116.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Sep 03 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 040233 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Juliette Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 800 PM PDT Tue Sep 03 2019 ...JULIETTE WEAKENS SOME... ...MOVING AWAY FROM CLARION ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.0N 116.2W ABOUT 485 MI...785 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Juliette was located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 116.2 West. Juliette is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Juliette is still a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is forecast during the next several days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). A Mexican Navy station on Clarion Island reported tropical-storm-force wind gusts during the past hour. The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts

...JULIETTE WEAKENS SOME... ...MOVING AWAY FROM CLARION ISLAND... As of 8:00 PM PDT Tue Sep 3 the center of Juliette was located near 19.0, -116.2 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 958 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 032310
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Sep 3 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Juliette, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 03 Sep 2019 20:37:32 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 03 Sep 2019 20:37:32 GMT