National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 01 Sep 2019 14:41:42 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 01 Sep 2019 15:31:35 GMT

Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Sep 01 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 011441 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 900 AM MDT Sun Sep 01 2019 Juliette has been quickly organizing this morning. Satellite and microwave data indicate that a small central dense overcast has formed, with a large band on the east side. The current wind speed is set to 50 kt, in line with the recent CIMSS objective Dvorak estimate since the subjective estimates are still catching up with this storm. There's been a significant change to the intensity and size forecasts of Juliette this morning, with guidance now showing a stronger and larger hurricane in about a day. This is consistent with the recent development of the early stages of an inner core, which would allow Juliette to continue to intensify at a fast pace. Indeed, rapid intensification is a distinct possibility due to an environment of low shear and very warm water, and the various rapid intensification indices are all showing this chance. Thus the forecast is raised from the last one, similar to the corrected consensus guidance, and further upward adjustments might be required this afternoon. Fixes show that the storm is moving faster to the northwest this morning. A ridge to the northeast of Juliette should steer the storm on this general path for the next several days, followed by a slight turn toward the west-northwest at the end. Model guidance is in fairly good agreement on this scenario, and the new forecast is basically an update of the previous one, close to the eastern Pacific model consensus TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 14.3N 108.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 15.3N 110.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 16.5N 112.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 17.4N 114.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 18.1N 115.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 19.2N 118.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 20.5N 121.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 06/1200Z 22.5N 125.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 01 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 011440 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 1500 UTC SUN SEP 01 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 95 2(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) 15N 110W 50 41 7(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) 15N 110W 64 8 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 110W 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 11(13) 6(19) 2(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) ISLA CLARION 34 X 7( 7) 57(64) 23(87) 2(89) 1(90) X(90) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 19(19) 37(56) 4(60) X(60) X(60) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 29(34) 3(37) X(37) X(37) 15N 115W 34 1 4( 5) 12(17) 6(23) 3(26) X(26) X(26) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X 3( 3) 13(16) 27(43) 11(54) 1(55) X(55) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13) X(13) X(13) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 33(36) 36(72) 4(76) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 27(35) 1(36) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 1(18) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 22(34) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 25N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 01 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 011440 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 1500 UTC SUN SEP 01 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 108.8W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 20SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 20SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 108.8W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 108.2W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 15.3N 110.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.5N 112.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.4N 114.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.1N 115.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 35SE 35SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.2N 118.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 20.5N 121.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 22.5N 125.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 108.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Sep 01 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 011440 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Juliette Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 900 AM MDT Sun Sep 01 2019 ...JULIETTE STRENGTHENING QUICKLY WELL SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.3N 108.8W ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Juliette was located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 108.8 West. Juliette is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the west- northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected by Monday and this general motion is forecast through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Juliette is expected to become a hurricane tomorrow and continue to intensify on Tuesday. Weakening could begin on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

...JULIETTE STRENGTHENING QUICKLY WELL SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO... As of 9:00 AM MDT Sun Sep 1 the center of Juliette was located near 14.3, -108.8 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011141
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Sep 1 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Storm Juliette, located several hundred miles
south-southwest of Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Juliette are issued under WMO header WTPZ31
KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.
Forecast/Advisories on Juliette are issued under WMO header WTPZ21
KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.

$$
Forecaster Blake

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 01 Sep 2019 08:33:40 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 01 Sep 2019 09:31:49 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 01 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 010832 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 0900 UTC SUN SEP 01 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 51 34(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) 15N 110W 50 4 26(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) 15N 110W 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 5( 5) 7(12) 4(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 25(27) 46(73) 8(81) 1(82) X(82) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 30(32) 9(41) X(41) X(41) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 6(19) X(19) X(19) 15N 115W 34 X 3( 3) 14(17) 10(27) 3(30) 1(31) X(31) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 18(25) 18(43) 2(45) X(45) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) X(11) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 40(65) 6(71) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 27(30) 4(34) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 2(16) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 23(30) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Sep 01 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 010832 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 300 AM MDT Sun Sep 01 2019 Earlier scatterometer surface wind data around 0400 UTC indicate that the low pressure system located about 400 nmi south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, had become better defined and that tropical-storm-force winds were occurring in the northern semicircle. More specifically, an ASCAT-A pass revealed peak surface winds of 42 kt, which could have been slightly rain inflated, and an ASCAT-C pass showed peak winds of 39 kt. Based on a blend of these wind data, the low has been upgraded to a 40-kt tropical storm, the tenth tropical storm of the 2019 eastern North Pacific hurricane season. Juliette's initial motion estimate is an uncertain 310/06 kt. The advisory position is an average of the locations of the mid- and low-level circulation centers, in anticipation of the low-level center noted in the ASCAT-C wind data developing closer to the recent bursts of central deep convection. Otherwise, the track forecast is pretty straight-forward with the NHC model guidance in good agreement on maintaining the deep-layer ridge to the north of Juliette throughout the forecast period. This steering pattern should result in the cyclone moving slowly northwestward today, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest with an increase in forward speed on Monday, with a west-northwestward motion continuing through 120 hours. The NHC forecast track lies close to the tightly packed consensus models HCCA and TVCE. Juliette is expected to remain within a favorable environment for intensification to occur over the next 48-72 hours or so, which is characterized by low vertical wind shear of less than 10 kt, a moist mid-level environment, and sea-surface temperatures (SST) of 28-29 deg C. Therefore, the official intensity forecast calls for steady strengthening, with Juliette expected to become a hurricane on Monday. By 96 hours, the cyclone will be moving over SSTs around 26 deg C and cooler, which should induce gradual weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is above the consensus intensity models HCCA and IVCN, and is close to a blend of the statistical SHIPS intensity models and the dynamical HWRF model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 13.2N 107.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 14.5N 109.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 15.7N 111.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 16.7N 113.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 17.6N 115.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 18.9N 118.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 05/0600Z 20.0N 121.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 06/0600Z 21.8N 124.8W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 01 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 010831 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 0900 UTC SUN SEP 01 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 107.6W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 107.6W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 107.4W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.5N 109.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.7N 111.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 16.7N 113.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.6N 115.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.9N 118.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 20.0N 121.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 21.8N 124.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 107.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Sep 01 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 010831 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Juliette Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 300 AM MDT Sun Sep 01 2019 ...NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMS WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.2N 107.6W ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 685 MI...1105 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Juliette was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 107.6 West. Juliette is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the west-northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected by Monday and continuing into Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Juliette is expected to become a hurricane on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

...NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMS WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY... As of 3:00 AM MDT Sun Sep 1 the center of Juliette was located near 13.2, -107.6 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 010533
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Aug 31 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization and a
tropical cyclone could be forming several hundred miles southwest
of Manzanillo, Mexico. Recent satellite-derived winds indicate that
this low pressure system is already producing surface winds to near
tropical storm force east of the center. Environmental conditions
are conducive for further development, and a tropical depression or
a tropical storm is likely to form on Sunday while the system moves
west-northwestward to northwestward at around 10 mph. For additional
information see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Stewart

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 010004
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Aug 31 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Updated to include High Seas Forecasts reference

Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized in
association with a broad area of low pressure located several
hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for further development of this system,
and a tropical depression is expected to form during the next day
or so while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
For additional information see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 312316
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Aug 31 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized in
association with a broad area of low pressure located several
hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for further development of this system,
and a tropical depression is expected to form during the next day
or so while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 311735
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Aug 31 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern coast of Mexico have become better organized since
yesterday. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further
development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to
form during the next 2 or 3 days while the system moves west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 311127
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Aug 31 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-
southwest of the southern coast of Mexico has become better
organized since yesterday. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical
depression is expected to form early next week while the system
moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 310539
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Aug 30 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-
southwest of the southern coast of Mexico is producing a large area
of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form next week while the system moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 302318
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Aug 30 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest
of the southern coast of Mexico is producing disorganized showers
and thundertorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could
form early next week as it moves generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

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Forecaster Latto/Cangialosi