National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2019 20:32:50 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2019 21:31:16 GMT

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 25 2019 563 WTPZ45 KNHC 252031 TCDEP5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Ivo Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 25 2019 The initial motion is 340/07 kt. Ivo has slowed down due to the system weakening and becoming vertically shallow. A slow north-northwestward motion is expected today and this evening, followed by a turn toward the north late tonight or early Monday morning. The official forecast track is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to the middle of the tightly clustered consensus models. The initial intensity of 25 kt is based mainly on continuity with the previous forecast. The inner-core region of Ivo's circulation has been devoid of any convection for more than 12 hours. What little bit of thunderstorm activity that does exist well to the north-northwest and west of the center is not showing any signs of feeding back onto the cyclone and, therefore, Ivo has degenerated into a remnant low pressure system. Additional spin down of the shallow vortex is forecast due to the cyclone moving over sub-22 deg C sea-surface temperatures and continuing to ingest more cool and stable air, with dissipation likely by Tuesday. Although Ivo is no longer a tropical cyclone, significant swells generated by the low are still affecting portions of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula and southern California. These swells will continue into tonight and could cause dangerous rip currents before subsiding on Monday. See products from your local weather office for additional information. This is the last NHC advisory on Ivo. For additional information on the remnant low, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php . FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 26.0N 117.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 26/0600Z 26.9N 118.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 26/1800Z 27.8N 118.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 27/0600Z 27.7N 117.8W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 252031 PWSEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 2100 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 252030 TCMEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 2100 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 117.9W AT 25/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 117.9W AT 25/2100Z AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 117.8W FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 26.9N 118.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 27.8N 118.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 27.7N 117.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.0N 117.9W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON IVO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE... UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 25 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 252030 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Ivo Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 25 2019 ...IVO DEGENERATES INTO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.0N 117.9W ABOUT 545 MI...880 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Ivo was located near latitude 26.0 North, longitude 117.9 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. A decrease in forward speed and a turn to the north is forecast to occur tonight or on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Ivo is expected to dissipate by Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Ivo are affecting the west coast of the Baja California peninsula and portions of the southern California coastline. These swells are likely to continue through this evening and could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Ivo. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php . $$ Forecaster Stewart

...IVO DEGENERATES INTO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sun Aug 25 the center of Ivo was located near 26.0, -117.9 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 251701
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Aug 25 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Ivo, located about 500 miles west-northwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2019 14:35:17 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2019 15:31:16 GMT

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 25 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 251433 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ivo Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 25 2019 Ivo is moving north-northwestward or 340/10 kt, and that motion is forecast to continue today. A turn to the north with a gradual decrease in forward speed is still expected to occur on Monday, and that motion should continue into Tuesday. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track and lies close a blend of the consensus models HCCA, TVCN, and TVCX. The initial intensity of 25 kt is based on earlier ASCAT surface wind data. Although a small area of deep convection has redeveloped about 100 n mi north of the low-level center, that thunderstorm activity is too far away to provide any positive feedback onto the circulation. Thus, Ivo basically remains devoid of any significant organized convection, and this downward trend is expected to continue for the next 48 hours while the cyclone moves of waters cooler than 22C. As a result of the expected spin down of the shallow vortex, Ivo is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low later today and dissipate by Tuesday. Although Ivo is weakening, significant swells generated by the cyclone are affecting portions of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula and southern California. These swells are likely to continue through the day and could cause rip currents, and gradually subside on Monday. See products from your local weather office for additional information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 25.5N 117.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 26.7N 118.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 26/1200Z 27.5N 118.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 27/0000Z 28.3N 118.1W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 251432 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 1500 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT IS GUADALUPE 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 251432 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 1500 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 117.4W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 117.4W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 117.2W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 26.7N 118.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 27.5N 118.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 28.3N 118.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N 117.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 25 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 251432 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ivo Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 25 2019 ...IVO EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.5N 117.4W ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ivo was located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 117.4 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. A decrease in forward speed and a turn to the north is forecast to occur tonight and Monday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Ivo is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low later today and dissipate by Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Ivo are affecting the west coast of the Baja California peninsula and portions of the southern California coastline. These swells are likely to continue through today and could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

...IVO EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sun Aug 25 the center of Ivo was located near 25.5, -117.4 with movement NNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 251140
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Aug 25 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Depression Ivo, located several hundred miles
west-northwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

A trough of low pressure is forecast to develop in a couple of days
near the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Development
of this system into a tropical cyclone appears unlikely while the
system moves slowly westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 25 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 250839 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ivo Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 25 2019 Ivo has been basically devoid of deep convection since about 0300 UTC, and the cyclone is on its way to becoming a remnant low. A pair of recent ASCAT passes indicate that the maximum winds have decreased, and the initial intensity is lowered to a possibly generous 30 kt, which makes Ivo a tropical depression. Ivo is currently over 24 degree C SSTs and in a dry and stable environment. Since these conditions are expected to become even more hostile during the next couple of days, Ivo is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low later today and dissipate within a couple of days. The depression is moving north-northwestward at 9 kt. A slight turn to the north with a notable decrease in forward speed is expected during the next day or two while the shallow cyclone is steered by the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast lies near the various consensus models. Even though Ivo is weakening, swells generated by the system are affecting portions of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula and southern California. These swells are likely to continue through the day and could cause rip currents. See products from your local weather office for additional information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 24.5N 117.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 25.8N 117.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 26/0600Z 26.8N 118.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/1800Z 27.5N 117.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2019 08:39:42 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2019 09:31:12 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 250838 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 0900 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 25 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 250838 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ivo Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 25 2019 ...IVO WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.5N 117.0W ABOUT 460 MI...745 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ivo was located near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 117.0 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. A decrease in forward speed and a turn to the north is forecast to occur tonight and Monday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Ivo is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low later today and dissipate in a couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Ivo are affecting the west coast of Baja California peninsula and portions of the southern California coastline. These swells are likely to continue through today and could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...IVO WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sun Aug 25 the center of Ivo was located near 24.5, -117.0 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 250838 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 0900 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 117.0W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 117.0W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 116.8W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 25.8N 117.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 26.8N 118.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 27.5N 117.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N 117.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI