National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241108
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Aug 24 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ivo, located almost 400 miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

An area of low pressure is forecast to develop by the middle of next
week just offshore of the west-central coast of Mexico near the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Some development of
this system is possible thereafter while it moves westward or
west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 24 Aug 2019 08:34:21 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 24 Aug 2019 09:24:28 GMT

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Aug 24 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 240832 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 200 AM PDT Sat Aug 24 2019 The cloud pattern associated with Ivo has deteriorated significantly during the past several hours, and deep convection is now limited to a small cell near the center. The middle-level circulation and the cloud debris have moved away from the center due to northeasterly shear. Dvorak numbers continue to decrease, and an average of these estimates yields an initial intensity of 40 kt. This is consistent with a recent ASCAT pass which measured one vector of 40 kt in the southern semicircle. The winds have subsided considerably in the remainder of the circulation. Ivo is already moving over increasingly cooler waters. On this basis, the NHC forecast calls for weakening, and Ivo is expected to become a remnant low in 36 hours or even earlier and then dissipate in 2 or 3 days. The best estimate of the initial motion is north-northwestward or 335 degrees at 9 kt, and Ivo should continue on that direction steered by the flow around the subtropical high. A decrease in forward speed is anticipated as the cyclone reaches weaker steering currents. The NHC forecast is not different from the previous one and is almost on top of the multi-model consensus TVCE. Due to the persistent and strong southwesterly flow associated with Ivo during the last few days, high swells are propagating northeastward toward portions of the southern Baja California peninsula as indicated by recent altimeter data. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 21.4N 115.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 22.7N 116.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 24.3N 117.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 26.0N 117.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/0600Z 27.2N 118.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 24 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 240832 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 0900 UTC SAT AUG 24 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 115W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 25N 115W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Aug 24 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 240831 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ivo Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 200 AM PDT Sat Aug 24 2019 ...IVO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... ...SWELLS PROPAGATING TOWARD THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.4N 115.8W ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 115.8 West. Ivo is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Ivo is expected to weaken to a tropical depression later today and degenerate into a remnant low on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) to the south of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Ivo are propagating toward portions of the west coast of Baja California Sur. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Avila

...IVO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... ...SWELLS PROPAGATING TOWARD THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sat Aug 24 the center of Ivo was located near 21.4, -115.8 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 24 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 240831 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 0900 UTC SAT AUG 24 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 115.8W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 120SE 150SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 300SE 210SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 115.8W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 115.6W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 22.7N 116.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 100SE 120SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 24.3N 117.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 26.0N 117.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 27.2N 118.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 115.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 240507
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Aug 23 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ivo, located a few hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

An area of low pressure is forecast to form just offshore of the
west-central coast of Mexico near the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula by the middle of next week. Some development of
this system is possible thereafter while it moves westward or
west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 24 Aug 2019 02:35:37 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 24 Aug 2019 03:31:08 GMT

Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Aug 23 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 240235 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 800 PM PDT Fri Aug 23 2019 Deep convection associated with Ivo has become more separated from the low-level center this evening, and the cloud tops have also warmed during the past few hours. Subjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimates have decreased and now support an initial wind speed of 45 kt. Although the vertical wind shear over the cyclone is predicted to decrease during the next 24 hours, Ivo will be moving over progressively cooler waters and into less favorable thermodynamic conditions. This should cause the storm to gradually weaken, and once Ivo moves over SSTs of 23-24 degrees Celsius on Sunday the cyclone should degenerate into a remnant low. Ivo is moving north-northwestward or 335/9 kt. There is little change to the previous track forecast reasoning. Ivo should continue to move north-northwestward around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico. Once the cyclone weakens and becomes a vertically shallow system, it is likely to decelerate as it comes under the influence of the low-level steering flow. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and lies closest to the HFIP corrected consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 20.5N 115.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 21.6N 116.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 23.3N 116.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 25.1N 117.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 26.6N 118.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/0000Z 28.6N 118.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 24 2019 339 FOPZ15 KNHC 240234 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 0300 UTC SAT AUG 24 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA CLARION 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 115W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 115W 50 13 X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 25N 115W 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 24 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 240234 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 0300 UTC SAT AUG 24 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 115.5W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 120SE 150SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 115.5W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 115.3W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 21.6N 116.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 100SE 120SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 23.3N 116.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 60SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 25.1N 117.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 26.6N 118.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 28.6N 118.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 115.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Aug 23 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 240234 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ivo Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 800 PM PDT Fri Aug 23 2019 ...IVO WEAKENS AS IT HEADS TOWARD COOLER WATERS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.5N 115.5W ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 115.5 West. Ivo is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast and Ivo is expected to weaken to a tropical depression Saturday night and then degenerate into a remnant low on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

...IVO WEAKENS AS IT HEADS TOWARD COOLER WATERS... As of 8:00 PM PDT Fri Aug 23 the center of Ivo was located near 20.5, -115.5 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 232340
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Aug 23 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ivo, located a few hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

A surface trough located about 1000 miles east-southeast of the Big
Island of Hawaii is producing limited shower and thunderstorm
activity. Environmental conditions could become a little more
conducive for some development in a few days as the system moves
northwestward. Future information on this disturbance can be found
in Tropical Weather Outlooks issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

An area of low pressure is forecast to form just offshore of the
west-central Mexico coast near the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula by the middle of next week. Some development of
this system is possible thereafter while it moves westward or
west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

&&
Tropical Weather Outlooks issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center can be found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP, and WMO header
ACPN50 PHFO. It can also be found on the web at hurricanes.gov

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 23 Aug 2019 20:40:32 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 23 Aug 2019 21:31:13 GMT

Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Aug 23 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 232039 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 200 PM PDT Fri Aug 23 2019 The satellite appearance of Ivo has changed little today, with northeasterly shear confining the deep convection to the southwestern semicircle of the cyclone's circulation. Although recent ASCAT data suggests that the peak winds may have decreased, the initial intensity is conservatively maintained at 55 kt, based on the earlier wind report from Clarion Island. Ivo's initial motion is 335/09 kt. This general motion is expected to continue for at least the next 48 hours as the cyclone is steered around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico. Once the cyclone weakens and becomes a shallow system in a couple of days, the forward motion should decrease and a turn to the northeast should occur, as the circulation becomes steered by the low level flow. The official forecast track is very close to the previous one and is near the various consensus model solutions. Although guidance suggests the wind shear will decrease over Ivo starting in about 12 hours, the cyclone is beginning to move over progressively cooler waters. This should cause the cyclone to gradually weaken over the next couple of days. By Sunday afternoon, Ivo will be over SSTs of about 22 C and in a more stable airmass. This should cause the cyclone to become devoid of deep convection and degenerate into a remnant low around that time. The latest forecast is an update of the previous one and in agreement with the corrected consensus HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 19.7N 115.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 20.9N 115.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 22.4N 116.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 24.1N 117.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 25.8N 118.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 28.7N 118.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto/Brown

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 232038 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 2100 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLA CLARION 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 115W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 115W 50 16 X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) 25N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 25N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 30N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER LATTO

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019 901 WTPZ25 KNHC 232038 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 2100 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 115.3W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 40SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 120SE 150SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 115.3W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 115.1W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 20.9N 115.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 100SE 120SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 22.4N 116.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 80SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 24.1N 117.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 25.8N 118.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 28.7N 118.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 115.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO/BROWN

Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Aug 23 2019 900 WTPZ35 KNHC 232038 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ivo Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 200 PM PDT Fri Aug 23 2019 ...IVO EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.7N 115.3W ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 115.3 West. Ivo is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast and Ivo is expected to weaken to a tropical depression on Sunday and then degenerate into a remnant low by Sunday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto/Brown