National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2019 02:40:54 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2019 03:31:18 GMT

Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Aug 24 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 250239 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 800 PM PDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Deep convection associated with Ivo has quickly waned this evening. A NOAA reconnaissance aircraft that flew into the storm this afternoon found SFMR winds that suggested that the cyclone may have been slightly stronger than previously estimated. However, with the degradation in organization since that time, the initial wind speed is set to 35 kt for this advisory. Ivo has moved north of the 26C isotherm and is heading toward even colder waters and a more stable environment. Thus weakening should occur overnight, and Ivo is forecast to become a tropical depression within 12 hours and to degenerate into a remnant low by Sunday night. The initial motion is 335/8 kt. Ivo continues moving north- northwestward around the western side of a mid-level ridge centered over northern Mexico. The cyclone should decelerate and turn northward on Sunday as it weakens and comes under the influence of the low-level steering flow. The persistent and strong southwesterly flow associated with Ivo during the last few days has generated swells that are now reaching portions of the coasts of the Baja California peninsula and southern California. These swells are likely to cause rip currents. See products from your local weather office for additional information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 23.4N 116.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 24.7N 117.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 25.9N 117.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/1200Z 26.7N 117.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/0000Z 27.0N 117.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 250239 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 0300 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 115W 34 2 X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

...IVO STILL A TROPICAL STORM BUT SHOULD WEAKEN SOON... ...SWELLS NOW REACHING THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sat Aug 24 the center of Ivo was located near 23.4, -116.6 with movement NNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 250239 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 0300 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 116.6W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 100SE 120SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 116.6W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 116.4W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 24.7N 117.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 25.9N 117.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 26.7N 117.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 27.0N 117.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N 116.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Aug 24 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 250239 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ivo Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 800 PM PDT Sat Aug 24 2019 ...IVO STILL A TROPICAL STORM BUT SHOULD WEAKEN SOON... ...SWELLS NOW REACHING THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.4N 116.6W ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was located near latitude 23.4 North, longitude 116.6 West. Ivo is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Sunday night. A turn toward the north and a decrease in forward speed are expected on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Ivo is expected to weaken to a tropical depression tonight or Sunday and degenerate into a remnant low by Sunday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) mainly to the southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Ivo are now spreading onto the west coast of Baja California peninsula and portions of the southern California coastline. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 242305
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Aug 24 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ivo, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

A trough of low pressure is forecast to develop in a few days near
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Some development
is possible thereafter while the system moves slowly westward or
west-northwestward through late next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 24 Aug 2019 20:48:47 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 24 Aug 2019 21:31:22 GMT

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Aug 24 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 242046 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 200 PM PDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Although the storm continues to move over decreasing sea surface temperatures, Ivo continues to produce deep convection in a band over the southern semicircle. A combination of satellite intensity estimates and recent ASCAT-C data suggest that the maximum winds remain near 35 kt, and a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft flying a research mission just reported a central pressure of 1000 mb. The cyclone should continue to move over cooler sea surface temperatures, and thus weakening is expected. The new intensity forecast again follows the guidance and the previous forecast in calling for Ivo to weaken to a depression by 24 h, to degenerate to a remnant low by 36 h, and to dissipate completely by 72 h. The initial motion is 335/7. The subtropical ridge to the east should steer Ivo generally north-northwestward for the next day or so. After that, the cyclone is likely to slow its forward motion and turn northward as the low-level flow becomes the dominate steering mechanism. The new official forecast track is again similar to the previous track through 24 h, and after that it is shifted slightly to the east of the previous track. The persistent and strong southwesterly flow associated with Ivo during the last few days has generated high swells that are now reaching portions of the southern Baja California peninsula. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 22.3N 116.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 23.7N 117.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 25.2N 117.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 26.3N 118.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/1800Z 26.8N 118.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 24 2019 425 FOPZ15 KNHC 242045 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 2100 UTC SAT AUG 24 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 115W 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 120W 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Aug 24 2019 426 WTPZ35 KNHC 242045 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ivo Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 200 PM PDT Sat Aug 24 2019 ...IVO REMAINS A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... ...SWELLS NOW REACHING THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.3N 116.5W ABOUT 425 MI...680 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 116.5 West. Ivo is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Sunday night. A turn toward the north and a decrease in forward speed are expected on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Ivo is expected to weaken to a tropical depression tonight or Sunday and degenerate into a remnant low Sunday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) mainly to the southeast of the center. The minimum central pressure just reported by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Ivo are now spreading onto the west coast of Baja California Sur. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

...IVO REMAINS A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... ...SWELLS NOW REACHING THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sat Aug 24 the center of Ivo was located near 22.3, -116.5 with movement NNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 24 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 242045 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 2100 UTC SAT AUG 24 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 116.5W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 100SE 120SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 210SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 116.5W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 116.5W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 23.7N 117.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 100SE 120SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 25.2N 117.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 26.3N 118.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 26.8N 118.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 116.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241712
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Aug 24 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ivo, located more than 400 miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

An area of low pressure is forecast to develop by the middle of next
week just offshore of the west-central coast of Mexico near the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Some development of
this system is possible thereafter while it moves westward or
west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 24 Aug 2019 16:11:20 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 24 Aug 2019 16:11:20 GMT

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 24 2019 513 WTPZ45 KNHC 241453 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Deep convection associated with Ivo has made a comeback during the past several hours, with a large convective mass now near the center over the western semicircle. Satellite intensity estimates have decreased a little more since the last advisory, and the initial intensity is reduced to a possibly conservative 35 kt. The cyclone is moving steadily over cooler sea surface temperatures and continued weakening is expected. The new intensity forecast therefore follows the guidance and the previous forecast in calling for Ivo to weaken to a depression by 24 h, to degenerate to a remnant low by 36 h, and to dissipate completely by 72 h. The initial motion is 330/8. The subtropical ridge to the east should steer Ivo generally north-northwestward for the next couple of days, with some decrease in forward speed before the system dissipates. The new official forecast track is again similar to the previous track. Due to the persistent and strong southwesterly flow associated with Ivo during the last few days, high swells continue to propagate northeastward toward portions of the southern Baja California peninsula. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 21.8N 116.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 23.0N 117.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 24.6N 117.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 26.0N 118.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/1200Z 26.8N 118.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 24 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 241453 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 1500 UTC SAT AUG 24 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 24 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 241451 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 1500 UTC SAT AUG 24 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 116.4W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 100SE 120SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 270SE 150SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 116.4W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 116.2W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 23.0N 117.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 100SE 120SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 24.6N 117.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 26.0N 118.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 26.8N 118.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N 116.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 24 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 241451 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ivo Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 24 2019 ...IVO WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE... ...SWELLS PROPAGATING TOWARD THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.8N 116.4W ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was located near latitude 21.8 North, longitude 116.4 West. Ivo is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Ivo is expected to weaken to a tropical depression later today or tonight and degenerate into a remnant low on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Ivo are propagating toward portions of the west coast of Baja California Sur. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

...IVO WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE... ...SWELLS PROPAGATING TOWARD THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sat Aug 24 the center of Ivo was located near 21.8, -116.4 with movement NNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.