National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 15 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 151436 TCMEP1 HURRICANE FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 1500 UTC THU JUL 15 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 118.6W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 45SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 118.6W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 118.2W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.3N 119.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.1N 121.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 14.8N 123.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.6N 124.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 14.4N 126.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.4N 128.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 14.5N 132.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 14.5N 136.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 118.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Jul 15 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 151436 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Felicia Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 800 AM PDT Thu Jul 15 2021 ...FELICIA CONTINUES TO QUICKLY INTENSIFY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 118.6W ABOUT 775 MI...1250 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Felicia was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 118.6 West. Felicia is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A gradual turn to the west-southwest is expected by Friday with this motion expected to continue over the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Felicia has rapidly intensified over the past day or so, and additional strengthening is expected through early Friday. Some slow weakening is possible by this weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto

...FELICIA CONTINUES TO QUICKLY INTENSIFY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Thu Jul 15 the center of Felicia was located near 15.2, -118.6 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 984 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 151118
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Jul 15 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Hurricane Felicia, located about 750 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue well
offshore of the coast of southern Mexico in association with a
tropical wave. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for gradual development over the next several days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form this weekend well offshore of
the southwestern coast of Mexico while the system moves westward or
west-northwestward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto

Issued at 715 AM MDT Wed Jul 14 2021 000 WTPZ61 KNHC 141313 TCUEP1 Tropical Storm Felicia Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 715 AM MDT Wed Jul 14 2021 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... GOES-16 satellite imagery indicates that the depression has strengthened to Tropical Storm Felicia. The maximum winds are estimated to be 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. The 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC) advisory will reflect this change and provide an updated intensity forecast. SUMMARY OF 715 AM AST...1315 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.1N 113.6W ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES $$ Forecaster Roberts/Brown

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... As of 7:15 AM MDT Wed Jul 14 the center of Felicia was located near 14.1, -113.6 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 141131
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Jul 14 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression Six-E, located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.

An area of low pressure is forecast to develop well south of the
coast of southern Mexico late this week and move westward at 10 to
15 mph. Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for
gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
this weekend well offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

&&
Pubic Advisories on Tropical Depression Six-E are issued under WMO
header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Six-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 14 Jul 2021 08:36:37 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 14 Jul 2021 09:22:40 GMT

Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Jul 14 2021 129 WTPZ41 KNHC 140835 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 300 AM MDT Wed Jul 14 2021 Satellite imagery indicates that convection associated with the low pressure area several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continue to become better organized, with banding near and west of the low-level center. In addition, recent scatterometer data shows that the circulation has become better better defined. Based on this, advisories are initiated on Tropical Depression Six-E. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt based on reliable-looking scatterometer winds and satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. The initial motion is 295/15. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should steer it west-northwestward for the next 36 h or so, followed by a turn toward the west. Some decrease in the forward speed is likely, especially around 72-96 h when a mid- to upper-level trough north of the cyclone temporarily weakens the ridge. The forecast track guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, and the forecast track is in the center of the guidance envelope close to the consensus models. The cyclone is expected to be in an environment of light vertical wind shear through the forecast period. However, the sea surface temperatures along the forecast track cool through 96 h, and the system is expected to move into a dryer air mass. The intensity guidance generally forecasts the cyclone to reach its peak intensity in 48-72 h followed by weakening, and the intensity forecast follows the general trend of the guidance. The forecast peak intensity of 65 kt is near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 14.2N 112.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 14.9N 114.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 15.5N 117.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 15.8N 119.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 15.7N 120.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 16/1800Z 15.6N 121.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 17/0600Z 15.5N 123.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 18/0600Z 15.5N 126.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 19/0600Z 15.5N 131.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Jul 14 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 140834 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Six-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 300 AM MDT Wed Jul 14 2021 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 112.8W ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six-E was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 112.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward speed through Thursday night. A turn toward the west is expected on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and to be near hurricane strength by Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 14 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 140834 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 0900 UTC WED JUL 14 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 115W 34 42 21(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) 15N 115W 50 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 33(35) 30(65) 4(69) X(69) X(69) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 21(25) 4(29) X(29) X(29) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 27(50) 2(52) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 2(19) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 21(26) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 14 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 140834 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 0900 UTC WED JUL 14 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 112.8W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 112.8W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 112.2W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 14.9N 114.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 15.5N 117.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.8N 119.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.7N 120.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 15.6N 121.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 15.5N 123.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 15.5N 126.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 15.5N 131.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 112.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 131140
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Jul 13 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure, located about 800 miles
south-southeast of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula, is producing a small but concentrated area of showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
favorable for development, and a tropical depression is likely
to form in a couple of days while the low moves westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

An area of low pressure is forecast to develop south or southwest
of the Gulf of Tehuantepec late this week and move westward at 10
to 15 mph, well offshore of the southern coast of Mexico.
Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for gradual
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form this
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 121135
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Jul 12 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are
expected to remain conducive for gradual development, and a
tropical depression is likely form within a few days well offshore
the southwestern coast of Mexico while the disturbance moves
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

An area of low pressure is forecast to develop south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec later this week and move westward or west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph, well offshore of the southern coast of Mexico.
Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely
to form by this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

524
ABPZ20 KNHC 081118
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Jul 8 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Pasch

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 071149
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Jul 7 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 061118
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Jul 6 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Pasch

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011749
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Oct 1 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on the
remnants of Narda, which dissipated near the northwest coast of
mainland Mexico.

An elongated area of low pressure located about 1000 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. Some slow development of
this system is possible during the next several days while the
system meanders generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Oct 2019 14:48:39 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Oct 2019 15:31:23 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 01 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 011447 PWSEP1 REMNANTS OF NARDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019 1500 UTC TUE OCT 01 2019 AT 1500Z THE REMNANTS OF NARDA WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH ...LONGITUDE 110.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS... 30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HERMOSILLO 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUAYMAS 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY