National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Sep 02 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 020840 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 300 AM MDT Mon Sep 02 2019 After struggling to strengthen during the previous 12-h period due to the entrainment of mid-level dry air, a strong burst of deep convection, accompanied by frequent lightning and cloud tops near -90C, has developed near the well-defined low-level circulation center. A nearly circular CDO feature has also formed over the center, and the upper-level outflow has improved and expanded in all quadrants. During the past few hours, SSMI/S and AMSU microwave satellite data indicate that a primitive mid-level eye feature had formed, and recent satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and UW-CIMSS SATCON were T3.5/55 kt and 57 kt, respectively. Based on these data, the initial intensity has been increased to 55 kt. The initial motion is estimate is 300/12 kt. There is no significant change to the previous forecast track or rationale. A deep-layer ridge anchored to the north of Juliette is expected to change little, driving Juliette on a general west-northwestward track throughout the 5-day period. As a result, the new NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory track, and lies down the middle of the tightly clustered model guidance. Now that a nearly complete mid-level eye feature has formed, rapid intensification is expected to occur during the next 24 hours due to Juliette being embedded within very favorable environmental conditions consisting of low vertical wind shear near 5 kt, an unhindered outflow pattern, and a moist mid-level environment, along with traversing warm sea-surface temperatures (SST) of 28-29 deg C. Thereafter, a slower rate of strengthening is expected through 36-48 hours due to the cyclone moving over marginal SSTs. Steady weakening is forecast on days 3-5 when Juliette will be moving over sub-26C SSTs despite low shear conditions. The new official intensity forecast is a little above all of the available intensity guidance, and shows the same peak intensity as the previous advisory, except that the time of occurrence has been moved forward by 24 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 16.2N 111.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 17.0N 113.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 17.9N 114.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 18.5N 116.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 19.0N 117.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 05/0600Z 20.0N 121.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 06/0600Z 21.5N 125.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 07/0600Z 23.0N 129.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 02 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 020839 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 0900 UTC MON SEP 02 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 110W 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 34 19 4(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) ISLA CLARION 34 31 59(90) 5(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) ISLA CLARION 50 1 70(71) 9(80) 1(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) ISLA CLARION 64 X 39(39) 12(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) 15N 115W 34 5 6(11) 4(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) 20N 115W 34 5 28(33) 20(53) 3(56) 2(58) X(58) X(58) 20N 115W 50 X 3( 3) 8(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 20N 115W 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 16(22) 58(80) 3(83) 1(84) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 47(50) 2(52) X(52) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 28(29) 1(30) X(30) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 34(41) 5(46) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 3(17) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 02 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 020839 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 0900 UTC MON SEP 02 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 111.8W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......130NE 130SE 0SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 45SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 111.8W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 111.3W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.0N 113.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.9N 114.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 60SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.5N 116.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 60SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.0N 117.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 60SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.0N 121.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 60SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 21.5N 125.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 23.0N 129.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 111.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Sep 02 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 020839 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Juliette Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 300 AM MDT Mon Sep 02 2019 ...JULIETTE STRENGTHENS... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 111.8W ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Juliette was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 111.8 West. Juliette is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A west-northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is forecast through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Juliette is expected to become a hurricane later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

...JULIETTE STRENGTHENS... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... As of 3:00 AM MDT Mon Sep 2 the center of Juliette was located near 16.2, -111.8 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

265
ABPZ20 KNHC 020516
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Sep 1 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Juliette, located several hundred miles south of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Juliette are issued under WMO header WTPZ31
KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.
Forecast/Advisories on Juliette are issued under WMO header WTPZ21
KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 02 Sep 2019 02:42:57 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 02 Sep 2019 03:31:44 GMT

Issued at 900 PM MDT Sun Sep 01 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 020241 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 900 PM MDT Sun Sep 01 2019 Although there has been some new deep bursts of convection near the center of circulation this evening, the banding features still remain quite fragmented. The subjective Dvorak intensity estimates, as well as a recent UW-CIMSS SATCON analysis, support holding the initial intensity at 50 kt for this advisory. Juliette is expected to intensify at a near climatological rate during the next 48 hours, indicative of low deep-layer shear, a moist mid-level atmosphere, and warm oceanic sea surface temperatures. After 72 hours, Juliette will be moving over decreasing SSTs, and into a high statically stable marine layer air mass which should induce gradual weakening. The NHC forecast follows suit and is based on a blend of the NOAA HFIP HCCA and the IVCN multi-model intensity guidance. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 300/11 kt within the east-southeasterly steering flow produced by a mid-tropospheric ridge extending over the northeastern Pacific from the southwestern United States. The cyclone should continue moving west-northwestward through the forecast period with some reduction in forward speed during the next 48 hours. Beyond that time, the cross-track spread of the model guidance increases in response to large-scale synoptic differences in the strength of the subtropical ridge. The ECMWF and the Canadian still indicate the cyclone turning westward due to strengthening of the subtropical ridge, while the GFS, HWRF, and the UKMET reflect less ridging, and induce a more northwestward track. The new official forecast is nudged south of the previous forecast and lies between the TVCE consensus and the ECMWF global. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 15.4N 110.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 16.3N 112.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 17.4N 114.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 18.1N 115.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 18.6N 117.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 05/0000Z 19.5N 120.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 06/0000Z 20.8N 124.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 07/0000Z 22.4N 128.2W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 02 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 020240 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 0300 UTC MON SEP 02 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 110W 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLA SOCORRO 34 15 7(22) 2(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) ISLA CLARION 34 5 57(62) 28(90) 2(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) ISLA CLARION 50 X 11(11) 52(63) 3(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) ISLA CLARION 64 X 2( 2) 32(34) 3(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) 15N 115W 34 3 8(11) 6(17) 2(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) 20N 115W 34 2 12(14) 28(42) 8(50) 3(53) X(53) X(53) 20N 115W 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 6(10) 2(12) X(12) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 57(69) 10(79) X(79) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 32(33) 11(44) 1(45) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 7(25) X(25) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 32(34) 14(48) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 7(17) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 900 PM MDT Sun Sep 01 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 020240 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Juliette Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 900 PM MDT Sun Sep 01 2019 ...JULIETTE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.4N 110.6W ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Juliette was located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 110.6 West. Juliette is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A west-northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is forecast through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Juliette is expected to become a hurricane on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts

...JULIETTE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY... As of 9:00 PM MDT Sun Sep 1 the center of Juliette was located near 15.4, -110.6 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 02 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 020240 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 0300 UTC MON SEP 02 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 110.6W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......120NE 130SE 0SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 45SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 110.6W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 110.1W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.3N 112.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 130SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.4N 114.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.1N 115.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.6N 117.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 19.5N 120.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 20.8N 124.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 22.4N 128.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 110.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 012319
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Sep 1 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Juliette, located several hundred miles southwest of
Manzanillo Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Juliette are issued under WMO header WTPZ31
KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.
Forecast/Advisories on Juliette are issued under WMO header WTPZ21
KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 01 Sep 2019 20:42:13 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 01 Sep 2019 21:31:45 GMT

Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun Sep 01 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 012041 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 300 PM MDT Sun Sep 01 2019 Juliette's presentation in visible satellite imagery has continued to improve, with hints of a banding eye now present. That said, the convection in the cyclone's bands is not that deep, and recent ASCAT data still supports an intensity of 50 kt. No change was made to the track forecast. The hurricane is moving northwest at 11 kt, steered primarily by a mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern US. All of the guidance shows that Juliette will move west-northwestward to northwestward for the next 3 days, with a slight decrease in forward speed. After that, differences in the forecasted strength of the ridge result in a larger model spread. The ECMWF shows Juliette turning nearly westward due to an amplification of the ridge, while the GFS forecasts that the ridge will weaken, causing Juliette to move farther north. The NHC forecast is nearly directly between those two models and lies very close to the model consensus at all forecast hours, but its worth noting that confidence in the track forecast is fairly low at 96 h and beyond. Low wind shear, a warm underlying ocean, and sufficient environmental moisture should allow Juliette to strengthen for the next 2-3 days. The largest uncertainty is the rate at which the tropical storm will strengthen, and the rapid intensification guidance is not quite as bullish as it was 6 hours ago. Subsequently, no major change was made to the intensity forecast, and Juliette is still expected to become a hurricane on Monday. By the end of the forecast, the cyclone will likely begin moving over cooler waters and through a far more stable environment. This should cause Juliette to weaken, particularly if it moves farther north than the NHC official forecast, as shown by the GFS. If Juliette takes a farther south track, like that of the ECMWF, it could maintain its intensity longer than currently forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 14.9N 109.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 15.9N 111.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 17.0N 113.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 17.9N 114.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 18.5N 116.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 19.5N 119.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 05/1800Z 21.0N 122.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 06/1800Z 23.0N 127.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 01 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 012040 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 2100 UTC SUN SEP 01 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 110W 50 30 X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) 15N 110W 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 110W 34 3 4( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ISLA SOCORRO 34 10 14(24) 4(28) 2(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) ISLA CLARION 34 3 24(27) 58(85) 7(92) 1(93) X(93) X(93) ISLA CLARION 50 X 1( 1) 52(53) 18(71) 3(74) X(74) X(74) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) 26(26) 17(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) 15N 115W 34 2 6( 8) 8(16) 3(19) 3(22) X(22) X(22) 20N 115W 34 X 7( 7) 27(34) 21(55) 5(60) 1(61) X(61) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 47(53) 26(79) 1(80) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 24(43) 1(44) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 15(23) X(23) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 16(34) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 25N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun Sep 01 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 012040 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Juliette Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 300 PM MDT Sun Sep 01 2019 ...JULIETTE FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 109.7W ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 555 MI...890 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Juliette was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 109.7 West. Juliette is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A west-northwestward to northwestward motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is anticipated for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Juliette is expected to become a hurricane on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

...JULIETTE FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY... As of 3:00 PM MDT Sun Sep 1 the center of Juliette was located near 14.9, -109.7 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 01 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 012039 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 2100 UTC SUN SEP 01 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 109.7W AT 01/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......120NE 130SE 0SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 109.7W AT 01/2100Z AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 109.1W FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.9N 111.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 130SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.0N 113.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.9N 114.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.5N 116.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.5N 119.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 21.0N 122.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 23.0N 127.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 109.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011720
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Sep 1 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Juliette, located several hundred miles south-southwest of
Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Juliette are issued under WMO header WTPZ31
KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.
Forecast/Advisories on Juliette are issued under WMO header WTPZ21
KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.

$$
Forecaster Blake