National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Sep 03 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 032036 TCDEP1 Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 200 PM PDT Tue Sep 03 2019 Juliette has leveled off in intensity this afternoon with the eye becoming cloud filled, and the eyewall convection weakening in the northeastern quadrant. The initial wind speed remains 110 kt for this advisory, and it is probable Juliette is about to go on a downhill trend. This is supported by gradually cooling waters during the next few days along with the hurricane becoming more embedded in the dry mid-level environment of the eastern Pacific north of 20N. Models remain in very good agreement, so the latest NHC intensity prediction is basically an update of the previous one and is within 5 kt of the intensity consensus at all times. The initial motion has turned a little more to the left and slowed, now 295/6 kt. There's been no change to the synoptic pattern with a large ridge over the southwestern United States providing a seemingly reliable steering current during the next several days, gradually bending the hurricane westward with time and speeding it up due to the ridge building to the north. The only minor change to report is a small westward trend noted in the bulk of the models, similar to the previous advisory. Thus the new forecast is adjusted in that direction, close to the eastern Pacific model consensus TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 18.6N 115.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 19.0N 116.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 19.6N 117.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 20.3N 119.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 21.1N 121.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 22.6N 125.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 23.5N 129.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 08/1800Z 23.5N 132.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 032031 PWSEP1 HURRICANE JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 2100 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA CLARION 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 115W 34 68 1(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) 20N 115W 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 34 2 19(21) 63(84) 8(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) 20N 120W 50 X 2( 2) 44(46) 16(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) 21(21) 13(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 17(22) 2(24) X(24) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 3(18) 1(19) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 5(16) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Sep 03 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 032031 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Juliette Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 200 PM PDT Tue Sep 03 2019 ...JULIETTE MOVING AWAY FROM CLARION ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.6N 115.6W ABOUT 475 MI...760 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Juliette was located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 115.6 West. Juliette is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is forecast during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Juliette is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is forecast during the next 72 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). A Mexican Navy station on Clarion Island was still reporting huricane-force wind gusts during the past hour. The estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb (28.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

...JULIETTE MOVING AWAY FROM CLARION ISLAND... As of 2:00 PM PDT Tue Sep 3 the center of Juliette was located near 18.6, -115.6 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 953 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 032031 TCMEP1 HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 2100 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 115.6W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 953 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 150SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 115.6W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 115.3W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.0N 116.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.6N 117.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.3N 119.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.1N 121.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.6N 125.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 23.5N 129.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 23.5N 132.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 115.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031748
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Sep 3 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Juliette, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Blake

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 03 Sep 2019 14:47:32 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 03 Sep 2019 15:39:15 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 031446 PWSEP1 HURRICANE JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 1500 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA CLARION 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA CLARION 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 115W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 68 2(70) 1(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) 20N 115W 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 34 1 7( 8) 60(68) 27(95) 1(96) X(96) X(96) 20N 120W 50 X 1( 1) 18(19) 50(69) 2(71) X(71) X(71) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 38(42) 2(44) X(44) X(44) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 23(27) 3(30) X(30) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 5(16) X(16) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 7(18) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Sep 03 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 031446 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Juliette Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 800 AM PDT Tue Sep 03 2019 ...JULIETTE BRINGS A 130-MPH WIND GUST TO CLARION ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 115.0W ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.14 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Juliette was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 115.0 West. Juliette is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a northwest to west-northwest motion is expected through Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Juliette is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is possible today, with weakening forecast to begin by late Wednesday and continuing through Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). A Mexican Navy station on Clarion Island recently reported sustained winds of 99 mph (159 km/h) with a peak gust of 130 mph (209 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb (28.14 inches) based on satellite estimates and data from the Mexican Navy station on Clarion Island. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

...JULIETTE BRINGS A 130-MPH WIND GUST TO CLARION ISLAND... As of 8:00 AM PDT Tue Sep 3 the center of Juliette was located near 18.4, -115.0 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 953 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019 223 WTPZ21 KNHC 031445 TCMEP1 HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 1500 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 115.0W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 953 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 115.0W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 114.7W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.8N 116.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.3N 117.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 19.9N 118.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.6N 120.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.2N 124.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 23.2N 129.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 23.5N 132.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 115.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031110
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Sep 3 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Juliette, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Blake

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 03 Sep 2019 08:32:28 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 03 Sep 2019 08:32:29 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 030831 PWSEP1 HURRICANE JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 0900 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA CLARION 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA CLARION 64 93 X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) 15N 115W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 70 6(76) 1(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) 20N 115W 50 5 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 120W 34 1 4( 5) 46(51) 41(92) 2(94) X(94) X(94) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 49(58) 6(64) X(64) X(64) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 33(35) 6(41) X(41) X(41) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 22(25) 5(30) X(30) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 11(20) X(20) 25N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 11(19) 25N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Sep 03 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 030831 TCDEP1 Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 300 AM MDT Tue Sep 03 2019 Juliette has rapidly intensified 50 kt since this time last night, and the recent satellite signature has continued to improve. The initial intensity of 105 kt is based on satellite intensity estimates of T5.5/102 kt from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT, and also the recently improved eye pattern. The initial motion estimate is 310/08 kt. A large subtropical ridge located to the north and northeast of Juliette should keep the hurricane moving northwestward today, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest on Wednesday, which should continue into Friday. By day 5, a westward motion is expected to begin as Juliette weakens considerably and becomes steered by the easterly trade wind flow. The new official forecast is a little north or to the right of the previous advisory track, and lies between the consensus models HCCA and TVCE to the north, and FSSE to the south. Some additional strengthening is forecast with Juliette possibly reaching category 4 status later today or tonight. Thereafter, cold upwelling is expected to begin, which will induce a slow weakening trend on Wednesday. The weakening rate is expected to be tempered by low vertical shear conditions and a very favorable upper-level outflow regime. By day 3 and beyond, however, more significant upwelling is expected to enhance the weakening process, with rapid weakening becoming a distinct possibility on days 4 and 5. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and lies slightly above all of the guidance for the next 24 hours, and then closely follows the IVCN and HCCA consensus models on days 2-5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 18.2N 114.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 18.7N 115.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 19.2N 116.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 19.7N 118.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 20.4N 120.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 22.0N 124.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 07/0600Z 23.4N 128.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 08/0600Z 24.0N 132.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 030830 TCMEP1 HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 0900 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 114.5W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT.......110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 114.5W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 114.2W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.7N 115.6W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.2N 116.9W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.7N 118.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.4N 120.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.0N 124.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 23.4N 128.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 24.0N 132.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 114.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Sep 03 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 030830 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Juliette Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 300 AM MDT Tue Sep 03 2019 ...CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE JULIETTE BEARING DOWN ON CLARION ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 114.5W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF CLARION ISLAND MEXICO ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Juliette was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 114.5 West. Juliette is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Juliette is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Juliette could become a category 4 hurricane later today or early Wednesday. Steady weakening is expected to begin by late Wednesday and continue through Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). A Mexican Navy automated weather station located on Clarion Island recently reported a sustained wind of 57 mph (91 km/h) and a gust to 74 mph (118 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb (28.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

...CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE JULIETTE BEARING DOWN ON CLARION ISLAND... As of 3:00 AM MDT Tue Sep 3 the center of Juliette was located near 18.2, -114.5 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 963 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 030514
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Sep 2 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Juliette, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 03 Sep 2019 02:36:05 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 03 Sep 2019 03:31:56 GMT