National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 282338
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Sep 28 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E, located a little more than 100 miles
south of Acapulco, Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form over the far
southwestern portion of the eastern North Pacific early next week.
Some gradual development is possible thereafter while the system
drifts slowly eastward or northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E are issued
under WMO header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.
Forecast/Advisories are issued under WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and
under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.

$$
Forecaster Brown

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 28 Sep 2019 20:41:39 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 28 Sep 2019 21:31:41 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 28 Sep 2019 20:41:39 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 28 Sep 2019 20:41:26 GMT

Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 282041 TCDEP1 Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 400 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019 The large area of disturbed weather along the southwestern coast of Mexico has not been able to consolidate yet and still there is no evidence of a well-defined center. Satellite animation continue to suggest that a circulation could be forming just south of Acapulco, but it is still elongated. Latest ASCAT measured tropical-storm-force winds well south of the possible developing center. Since the large envelope of the disturbance is interacting with the high terrain of southern Mexico, and the environment is not ideal for strengthening, the NHC forecast calls for a very modest increase in winds. The disturbance could become a tropical storm at any time later tonight or Sunday before it reaches the coast. However, if the system survives the high terrain of the state of Jalisco, it could gather some additional strength when it emerges in the Gulf of California and before the shear increases. By the end of the forecast period, the shear is expected to be high, and a large portion of the circulation will be overland. This should result in weakening. The initial motion continues to be highly uncertain since the disturbance does not have a center good enough to track. However, a high pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico should continue to steer the disturbance or the cyclone toward the northwest and then north-northwest very close or over the southwestern coast of Mexico, and then into the Gulf of California. This is the solution provided by the reliable models. As mentioned this morning, If the system develops its center closer to the coast, there is a chance that the circulation moves inland earlier than anticipated resulting in faster weakening. In fact, this is the solution of this morning's GFS. Regardless of development, torrential rains are expected along the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 15.0N 100.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 29/0600Z 16.0N 101.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 24H 29/1800Z 18.0N 103.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 20.0N 105.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 30/1800Z 22.0N 107.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 01/1800Z 25.0N 109.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 02/1800Z 26.0N 109.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 03/1800Z 27.0N 110.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 28 2019 233 FOPZ11 KNHC 282040 PWSEP1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019 2100 UTC SAT SEP 28 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 20(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 27(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) L CARDENAS 34 X 23(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) L CARDENAS 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 16(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) 15N 100W 34 83 1(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) 15N 100W 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 282039 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 400 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019 ...DISTURBANCE TAKING ITS TIME TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...TORRENTIAL RAINS HEADING FOR SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.0N 100.0W ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Acapulco to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 100.0 West. The system has been meandering during the day, but it should begin to move toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) tonight. This motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days, bringing the disturbance or the cyclone very near or over the southwestern coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or Sunday. However, if the center forms closer to the coast and interacts with the high terrain of Mexico, weakening should then occur. Although a well-defined center has not developed yet, this system is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or Sunday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) to the southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by later tonight or early Sunday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 7 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches along the southwestern coast of Mexico from Chiapas to Nayarit through Monday. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Avila

...DISTURBANCE TAKING ITS TIME TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...TORRENTIAL RAINS HEADING FOR SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 4:00 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 the center of Sixteen-E was located near 15.0, -100.0 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 28 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 282039 TCMEP1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019 2100 UTC SAT SEP 28 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ACAPULCO TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 100.0W AT 28/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 100.0W AT 28/2100Z AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 99.7W FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 16.0N 101.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 120SE 50SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 18.0N 103.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 150SE 70SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 20.0N 105.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 22.0N 107.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 25.0N 109.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 26.0N 109.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 27.0N 110.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 100.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 29/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 28 Sep 2019 17:31:22 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 28 Sep 2019 15:31:53 GMT

Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 281731 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 100 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019 ...TROPICAL CYCLONE EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTH OF MEXICO... ...TORRENTIAL RAINS ANTICIPATED IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 100.4W ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Acapulco to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 100.4 West. The system has moved very little during the past few hours, but it should begin to move toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) later today or tonight. This motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days, bringing the disturbance or the cyclone very near or over the southwestern coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or Sunday. However, if the center forms closer to the coast and interacts with the high terrain of Mexico, weakening should then occur. Although a well-defined center has not developed yet, a tropical depression or a tropical storm is forecast to form tonight or Sunday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by later tonight or early Sunday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 7 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches along the southwestern coast of Mexico from Chiapas to Nayarit through Monday. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Avila

...TROPICAL CYCLONE EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTH OF MEXICO... ...TORRENTIAL RAINS ANTICIPATED IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 1:00 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 the center of Sixteen-E was located near 14.9, -100.4 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 281711
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Sep 28 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E located a little more than 100 miles
south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form over the far
southwestern portion of the eastern North Pacific early next week.
Some gradual development is possible thereafter while the system
drifts slowly eastward or northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E are issued
under WMO header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.
Forecast/Advisories are issued under WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and
under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.

$$
Forecaster Avila

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 28 Sep 2019 14:52:43 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 28 Sep 2019 15:31:53 GMT

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 281451 TCDEP1 Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 1000 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019 The area of disturbed weather along the southwestern coast of Mexico is gradually becoming better organized. There is no evidence of a well-defined center at this time, but satellite animation suggests that a circulation could be forming just south of Acapulco. Since there is a risk of tropical-storm-force winds along the coast of Mexico, the government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of southwestern coast, and advisories have been initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone 16-E. Earlier ASCAT data indicate that the disturbance has been producing winds of about 30 kt, mostly within its southern portion. The large envelope of the disturbance is interacting with the high terrain of southern Mexico, and the environment is not ideal for strengthening, but it is good enough for the disturbance to reach tropical storm status. By the end of the forecast period, the shear is expected to be high, and the system should weaken. The initial motion is obviously highly uncertain since there is not a good center to track. The best estimate is toward the northwest or 315 degrees at 11 kt. High pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will continue to steer the disturbance or the cyclone toward the northwest and then north-northwest very close to the southwestern coast of Mexico, and then into the Gulf of California. This is the solution provided by the reliable models. If the system develops its center closer to the coast, there is a chance that the circulation moves inland earlier than anticipated resulting in faster weakening. Regardless of how strong the system becomes, torrential rains are expected along the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 14.9N 100.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 29/0000Z 16.0N 101.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 24H 29/1200Z 17.5N 103.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 19.5N 105.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 22.0N 107.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 01/1200Z 26.0N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 02/1200Z 27.0N 111.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 03/1200Z 29.0N 112.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 28 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 281451 PWSEP1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019 1500 UTC SAT SEP 28 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) X(12) X(12) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 26(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 14(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) MANZANILLO 34 X 5( 5) 28(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) L CARDENAS 34 1 13(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) ZIHUATANEJO 34 2 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 100W 34 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 281451 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 1000 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019 ...TROPICAL CYCLONE EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTH OF MEXICO... ...TORRENTIAL RAINS ANTICIPATED IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 100.4W ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning along the southwestern coast of Mexico from Acapulco to Cabo Corrientes. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Acapulco to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 100.4 West. The system is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. This track should bring the disturbance or the cyclone very near or over the southwestern coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm later today or Sunday. However, if the center forms closer to the coast and interacts with the high terrain of Mexico, weakening should then occur. The disturbance is becoming better organized, and a tropical depression or a tropical storm is forecast to form later today or Sunday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by later tonight or early Sunday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 7 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches along the southwestern coast of Mexico from Chiapas to Nayarit through Monday. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Avila

...TROPICAL CYCLONE EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTH OF MEXICO... ...TORRENTIAL RAINS ANTICIPATED IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 the center of Sixteen-E was located near 14.9, -100.4 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 28 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 281450 TCMEP1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019 1500 UTC SAT SEP 28 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO TO CABO CORRIENTES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ACAPULCO TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 100.4W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 100.4W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 100.0W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 16.0N 101.5W...TROPICAL STORM MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 70SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 17.5N 103.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 100SE 80SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 19.5N 105.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 80SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 22.0N 107.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 26.0N 111.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 27.0N 111.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 29.0N 112.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 100.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 28/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 281137
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Sep 28 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large area of disturbed weather extends from Central America
westward along the southwest coast of Mexico. Although this system
does not appear to have a well-defined circulation at this time,
development is anticipated, and a tropical depression or tropical
storm will likely form later today or Sunday while the system moves
west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, near the
southwestern coast of Mexico. Interests along that portion of the
coast should monitor the progress of this disturbance since tropical
storm watches or warnings could be required later today or Sunday.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall, with the possibility of
flash flooding and mudslides, is expected to continue near the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. For
information on potential marine hazards, see High Seas forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form over the far
southwestern portion of the eastern North Pacific early next week.
Some gradual development is possible thereafter while the system
drifts slowly eastward or northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Avila

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 280544
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Sep 27 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large area of disturbed weather extends from Central America
westward along the southwest coast of Mexico. This system is
gradually becoming better organized, however, it does not appear to
have a well-defined circulation at this time. Development is
anticipated and a tropical depression or tropical storm will likely
form during the next day or so while the system moves
west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, near the
southwestern coast of Mexico. Interests along that portion of the
coast should monitor the progress of this disturbance since tropical
storm watches or warnings could be required on Saturday. Regardless
of development, heavy rainfall, with the possibility of flash
flooding and mudslides, is expected near the southwestern coast of
Mexico during the next few days. For information on potential marine
hazards, see High Seas forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected form over the far southwestern
portion of the eastern North Pacific early next week. Some gradual
development is possible thereafter while the system drifts slowly
eastward or northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky