National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 231718
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Aug 23 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ivo, located a few hundred miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

A surface trough located about 1100 miles east-southeast of the Big
Island of Hawaii is producing limited shower and thunderstorm
activity. Environmental conditions could become a little more
conducive for some development in the central Pacific basin well to
the east of the Hawaiian Islands in a few days as the system
moves slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

An area of low pressure is likely to form early next week just
offshore of the west-central Mexico coast near the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula. Some slow development of this system
is possible thereafter as it moves west to west-northwest at around
10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto/Blake

Issued at 900 AM PDT Fri Aug 23 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 231605 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Ivo Special Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 900 AM PDT Fri Aug 23 2019 An observation at 1430 UTC from Clarion Island, Mexico, indicated sustained winds of 53 kt and a wind gust to 66 kt on that island. Based on this data, a special advisory is being issued with the initial intensity increased to 55 kt. There has been a slight upward adjustment of the forecast intensity through 24 hours to account for the initial wind speed. However, the remainder of the forecast reasoning remains unchanged, and no changes were made to the track for this advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1600Z 18.9N 115.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 20.0N 115.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 21.6N 116.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 23.1N 117.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 24.6N 117.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 27.6N 118.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto/Blake

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 23 Aug 2019 16:04:33 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 23 Aug 2019 16:04:33 GMT

Issued at 1600 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 231603 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVO SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 1600 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019 AT 1600Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA CLARION 50 66 X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) 20N 115W 34 85 3(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) 20N 115W 50 6 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 25N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 120W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER LATTO/BLAKE

Issued at 900 AM PDT Fri Aug 23 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 231602 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ivo Special Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 900 AM PDT Fri Aug 23 2019 ...REPORTS FROM CLARION ISLAND INDICATE IVO STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT... SUMMARY OF 900 AM PDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.9N 115.0W ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM PDT (1600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 115.0 West. Ivo is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected over the next couple of days and Ivo is expected to weaken to a tropical depression on Saturday night, and then degenerate into a remnant low by Sunday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. A Mexican automated station at Clarion Island recently reported sustained winds of 62 mph (99 km/h) and a wind gust of 76 mph (122 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto/Blake

...REPORTS FROM CLARION ISLAND INDICATE IVO STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT... As of 9:00 AM PDT Fri Aug 23 the center of Ivo was located near 18.9, -115.0 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 1600 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 231602 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVO SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 1600 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 115.0W AT 23/1600Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 40SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 110SE 120SW 45NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 115.0W AT 23/1600Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 114.8W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 20.0N 115.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 90SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 21.6N 116.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 23.1N 117.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 24.6N 117.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 27.6N 118.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 115.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO/BLAKE

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 23 Aug 2019 14:37:05 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 23 Aug 2019 14:37:06 GMT

Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Aug 23 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 231434 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 800 AM PDT Fri Aug 23 2019 Ivo has been passing over the island of Clarion Mexico over the past few hours, with an notable wind shift occuring there at around 1030 UTC as the center moved north of the island. The latest observation from Clarion at 1245 UTC measured sustained winds of 40 kt with gusts to 46 kt. An earlier scatterometer pass showed that 50 kt winds are occurring in the southeastern quadrant of the cyclone. As the satellite appearance of the cyclone has not degraded since that time, the initial intensity of Ivo remains at 50 kt for this advisory. Ivo is moving NNW or 330/9 kt. This general motion is expected to continue through the next 48 hours as the cyclone is steered around a mid level ridge over northern Mexico. A slight decrease in forward speed is expected beyond 48 hours as Ivo weakens and becomes a shallow system. All forecast models agree with this scenario, and the official forecast is near the corrected consensus HCCA. Northeasterly shear continues to impact the storm which is resulting the convection being confined to the southwestern semicircle. The SHIPS guidance indicates this shear should abate over the next 12-24 hours. However, by that time Ivo will be moving over marginal water temperatures and into a slightly drier environment which should cause the system to slowly weaken. In about 24 hours the cyclone will pass over the 26 C isotherm, and by 48 hours it will be over waters of about 22 C and in a stable airmass. This should cause the cyclone to lose its deep convection and become a remnant low by 72 hours. The official forecast is similar to the previous one, and close to the solution of the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 18.8N 115.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 20.0N 115.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 21.6N 116.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 23.1N 117.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 24.6N 117.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 27.6N 118.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto/Beven

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019 352 FOPZ15 KNHC 231432 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 1500 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA CLARION 50 15 X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) 20N 115W 34 79 3(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) 20N 115W 50 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 25N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER LATTO/BEVEN

Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Aug 23 2019 354 WTPZ35 KNHC 231432 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ivo Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 800 AM PDT Fri Aug 23 2019 ...IVO PASSING OVER CLARION ISLAND MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 115.0W ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 115.0 West. Ivo is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected over the next couple of days and Ivo is expected to weaken to a tropical depression on Saturday, and then degenerate into a remnant low by Sunday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. A Mexican automated station at Clarion Island recently reported sustained winds of 45 mph (73 km/h) and a wind gust of 53 mph (85 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto/Beven

...IVO PASSING OVER CLARION ISLAND MEXICO... As of 8:00 AM PDT Fri Aug 23 the center of Ivo was located near 18.8, -115.0 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 231432 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 1500 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 115.0W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 110SE 120SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 210SE 120SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 115.0W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 114.8W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 20.0N 115.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 90SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 21.6N 116.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 23.1N 117.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 24.6N 117.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 27.6N 118.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 115.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO/BEVEN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 231137
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Aug 23 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ivo, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

A surface trough located about 1000 miles east-southeast of the Big
Island of Hawaii is producing disorganized cloudiness and showers.
Although this disturbance is not currently showing any signs of
development, environmental conditions could become a little more
conducive for some development in the central Pacific basin well to
the east of the Hawaiian Islands in a few days as the system moves
slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto/Beven

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 23 Aug 2019 08:44:28 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 23 Aug 2019 09:31:08 GMT

Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 230842 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 300 AM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019 Unexpectedly, stronger than anticipated northeasterly shear affected Ivo during the past 12 hours or so, and the low-level center became detached from the main area of deep convection. The center can be clearly seen on microwave and conventional imagery, and it is located very near Clarion Island, Mexico. An automatic Mexican Navy weather station at that location reported that the surface pressure has been falling and has measured gusts to 39 kt. This information is very valuable to diagnose the structure of the cyclone. Despite the deterioration of the cloud pattern, a recent ASCAT pass measured a peak wind of 50 kt associated with Ivo, but this value was confined to a small area in the southeast quadrant. On this basis, the initial intensity has been adjusted downward to 50 kt, which is also a value close to the Dvorak estimates, or perhaps a tad higher. The cyclone is expected to be over warm waters for about a day or so, and given its vigorous circulation, Ivo could maintain the same intensity for the next 12 hours. After that time, Ivo should begin to weaken over cooler waters. Unanimously, all the models weaken the cyclone and so does the NHC forecast, and by 72 hours or sooner, Ivo should have degenerated into a remnant low. The center is moving toward the north-northwest or 330 degrees at 9 kt. The cyclone managed to find a weakness in the ridge, and since the steering pattern is not expected to change, this general motion is anticipated to continue until dissipation in 4 days. The NHC forecast is on the left edge of the guidance envelope and is basically on top of the multi-model consensus TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 17.9N 114.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 19.0N 115.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 20.5N 116.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 22.0N 116.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 24.0N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 26/0600Z 27.5N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 230841 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 0900 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 98 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA CLARION 50 19 2(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) ISLA CLARION 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 115W 34 26 41(67) 1(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) 20N 115W 50 X 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019 281 WTPZ35 KNHC 230841 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ivo Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 300 AM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019 ...A WEAKER IVO APPROACHING CLARION ISLAND MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 114.5W ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 114.5 West. Ivo is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 2 to 3 days. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in intensity is expected today, but Ivo should begin to weaken on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. A Mexican Navy automatic station at Clarion Island recently reported a wind to 45 mph (72 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Avila

...A WEAKER IVO APPROACHING CLARION ISLAND MEXICO... As of 3:00 AM MDT Fri Aug 23 the center of Ivo was located near 17.9, -114.5 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019 135 WTPZ25 KNHC 230837 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 0900 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 114.5W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 100SE 80SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 120SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 114.5W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 114.3W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 19.0N 115.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 100SE 80SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 20.5N 116.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 22.0N 116.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 24.0N 117.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 27.5N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 114.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA