National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 22 Aug 2019 08:43:52 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 22 Aug 2019 09:31:18 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 22 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 220842 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 0900 UTC THU AUG 22 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 X 29(29) 22(51) 1(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53) ISLA CLARION 50 X 7( 7) 10(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) ISLA CLARION 64 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 115W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 28(29) 8(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 8(25) X(25) 25N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 25N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 30N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 30N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

Issued at 300 AM MDT Thu Aug 22 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 220842 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 300 AM MDT Thu Aug 22 2019 The cloud pattern associated with Ivo is a little better organized and consists of a circular mass of convection surrounded by a well- defined cyclonically curved band. The center appears to be more embedded under the canopy than several hours ago. Despite the improvement, recent scatterometer data show that the winds have not increased yet and are between 40 and 45 kt. Because the cloud pattern has improved since then, the initial intensity has been increased to 50 kt, which is the consensus among TAFB, SAB and SATCON estimates. The environment during the next 36 hours should favor Ivo to strengthen a little more and reach hurricane status. Thereafter, Ivo should begin to encounter dry air and cooler waters, resulting in gradual weakening. By day 4, Ivo should be over 20 degree Celsius waters and become a remnant low void of deep convection. The intensity forecast follows very closely the HCCA solution and is a little higher than the consensus. Satellite data suggest that the center of Ivo has either moved a little bit south of due west or it has reformed closer to the convection with a decrease in forward speed. However, an average of the past 6 to 12 hours gives a motion toward the west or 270 degrees at 11 kt. Ivo should be reaching the southwestern edge of a subtropical ridge in 12 to 24 hours, and this flow pattern should steer the cyclone more toward the west-northwest and northwest. This general motion should then continue until the end of the forecast period. The NHC forecast is a little to the right of the previous one, but it is still on the western edge of the guidance envelope and in between the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA and the multi-model average TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 15.8N 112.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 16.2N 114.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 17.4N 115.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 19.0N 116.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 20.7N 117.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 24.6N 119.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 26/0600Z 28.0N 121.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/0600Z 30.5N 123.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila

Issued at 300 AM MDT Thu Aug 22 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 220841 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ivo Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 300 AM MDT Thu Aug 22 2019 ...IVO FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO OVER OPEN WATERS... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 112.5W ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 112.5 West. Ivo has decreased its forward speed and is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is expected later today or Friday with a northwestward motion continuing thereafter. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Ivo is forecast to become a hurricane by Friday, but weakening should then begin after that time. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Avila

...IVO FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO OVER OPEN WATERS... As of 3:00 AM MDT Thu Aug 22 the center of Ivo was located near 15.8, -112.5 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 22 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 220841 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 0900 UTC THU AUG 22 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 112.5W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 10SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 112.5W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 112.0W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 16.2N 114.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 17.4N 115.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 19.0N 116.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 20.7N 117.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 24.6N 119.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 28.0N 121.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 30.5N 123.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 112.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 22 Aug 2019 06:42:10 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 22 Aug 2019 06:42:11 GMT

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 220501
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Aug 21 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ivo, located several hundred miles south of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected for the next 5 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Ivo are issued under WMO header WTPZ35 KNHC and
under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5. Forecast/Advisories on Ivo are issued
under WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.

$$
Forecaster Avila

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 22 Aug 2019 02:35:45 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 22 Aug 2019 03:31:16 GMT

Issued at 900 PM MDT Wed Aug 21 2019 049 WTPZ45 KNHC 220235 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 900 PM MDT Wed Aug 21 2019 An earlier GMI microwave overpass that arrived after the release of the previous advisory revealed a tightly coiled band of convection that wrapped around the southern and southeastern portion of the circulation. More recent microwave imagery, however, shows that the system is being impacted by northeasterly shear with the center now located near the northeast portion of the primary convective mass. Objective and subjective Dvorak intensity estimates unanimously supported an intensity of 45 kt, and the initial intensity has been increased accordingly. Ivo is expected to remain over warm SSTs and in a moist environment during the next 36 h or so. These conditions favor strengthening however the aforementioned moderate northeasterly shear is likely to temper the rate of intensification during that time. The NHC forecast calls for steady strengthening and again brings Ivo to hurricane status within 36 h. After that time, cooler waters and a drier and more stable air mass should cause weakening, and Ivo is forecast to become post-tropical by day 4. The official intensity forecast shows a peak a little higher than most of the guidance but otherwise is close to the model consensus. Ivo is moving west-northwestward or 285/16 kt. The storm should slow down later tonight or Thursday as it begins to move around the southwestern portion of a subtropical ridge. In about 24 hours, a weakness is expected to develop in the ridge which is expected to cause Ivo to turn northwestward. A general northwestward motion should then continue through the remainder of the forecast period. An additional reduction in forward speed is likely late in the forecast period as the system weakens and becomes vertically shallow. The track guidance as trended toward a slower motion after 72 hours, and the updated NHC track has been adjusted a little southward. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 16.1N 111.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 16.5N 113.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 17.6N 114.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 18.8N 116.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 20.0N 116.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 25/0000Z 23.2N 118.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 26/0000Z 26.4N 120.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 27/0000Z 28.8N 121.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 22 2019 654 WTPZ25 KNHC 220235 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 0300 UTC THU AUG 22 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 111.3W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 111.3W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 110.6W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 16.5N 113.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 17.6N 114.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 18.8N 116.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 20.0N 116.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 23.2N 118.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 26.4N 120.4W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 28.8N 121.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 111.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 900 PM MDT Wed Aug 21 2019 653 WTPZ35 KNHC 220235 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ivo Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 900 PM MDT Wed Aug 21 2019 ...IVO STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES BRISKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 111.3W ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 111.3 West. Ivo is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). A decrease in forward speed and a turn toward the northwest is expected by late Thursday, with a northwestward motion continuing through Friday night. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected and Ivo is forecast to become a hurricane Thursday night or Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

...IVO STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES BRISKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 9:00 PM MDT Wed Aug 21 the center of Ivo was located near 16.1, -111.3 with movement WNW at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 22 2019 610 FOPZ15 KNHC 220235 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 0300 UTC THU AUG 22 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA CLARION 34 1 59(60) 20(80) 1(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) ISLA CLARION 50 X 18(18) 20(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) ISLA CLARION 64 X 4( 4) 10(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) 15N 115W 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 115W 34 1 5( 6) 36(42) 10(52) 2(54) X(54) X(54) 20N 115W 50 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 6(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 11(21) X(21) X(21) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 21(33) 1(34) 25N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) 25N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 30N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 212310
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Aug 21 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ivo, located several hundred miles south of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected for the next 5 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Ivo are issued under WMO header WTPZ35 KNHC and
under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5. Forecast/Advisories on Ivo are issued
under WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Aug 21 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 212210 CCA TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ivo Advisory Number 2...Correction NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 300 PM MDT Wed Aug 21 2019 Corrected storm ID in header block ...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM IVO... ...EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY INTO A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 109.5W ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 109.5 West. Ivo is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h). A decrease in forward speed and a turn to the northwest is expected by Thursday, with a northwestward motion continuing through Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is expected and Ivo is forecast to become a hurricane by Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Latto

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM IVO... ...EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY INTO A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY... As of 3:00 PM MDT Wed Aug 21 the center of Ivo was located near 15.8, -109.5 with movement WNW at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Aug 21 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 212203 CCA TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 2...CORRECTED NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 300 PM MDT Wed Aug 21 2019 Corrected storm ID in header block Over the past several hours the cyclone has exhibited an ongoing increase in organization, with a curved band wrapping around the low level center apparent in both satellite imagery and microwave data. The initial intensity has been increased to 40 kt and this is a blend of the subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. Ivo's initial motion is 285/17 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone will continue to steer it to the west-northwest through much of tonight. By Thursday, a weakness is expected to develop to the northwest of the cyclone which will result in a turn to the northwest with a decrease in forward speed. The cyclone is then forecast to continue to move northwest through the remainder of the forecast period. Ivo will be over warm SSTs near 30C and in a moist environment for the next 48 hours, which should favor intensification. And, although the SHIPS guidance suggests 15 kt of northeasterly shear may be affecting the cyclone, the satellite appearance does not suggest that this shear is having much of impact at this time. Based on the favorable environment, steady strengthening is forecast, and Ivo is expected to become a hurricane by Friday. By 72 hours, the cyclone will begin to move over much cooler waters and into a stable air mass while undergoing increasing southwesterly shear. This should cause the cyclone to weaken and it is expected to become a convection-free post-tropical cyclone by day 5. The official forecast has been increased slightly from the previous one and is close to the corrected consensus HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 15.8N 109.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 16.4N 111.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 17.2N 113.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 18.2N 115.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 19.5N 116.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 24/1800Z 22.5N 117.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 25/1800Z 25.8N 119.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 26/1800Z 28.8N 121.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Latto/Pasch

Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 21 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 212201 CCA TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 2100 UTC WED AUG 21 2019 CORRECTED STORM ID IN THE HEADER BLOCK THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 109.5W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 109.5W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 108.8W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 16.4N 111.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 17.2N 113.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 18.2N 115.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 80SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 19.5N 116.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 22.5N 117.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 25.8N 119.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 28.8N 121.9W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 109.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 21 Aug 2019 20:35:29 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 21 Aug 2019 21:31:07 GMT