National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

699
ABPZ20 KNHC 141731
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Aug 14 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The first few visible satellite images of the day indicate that the
the low pressure system located more than 1300 miles west-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula does not have a
well-defined center, and the circulation remains elongated. In
addition, the low is producing limited shower and thunderstorm
activity at this time. Environmental conditions are expected to be
marginally conducive for some development, and a tropical
depression could still form over the next few days before the
system reaches cooler waters and upper-level winds become
unfavorable. This disturbance is forecast to move west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form south or
southeast of the southeastern coast of Mexico over the weekend.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of the system early next week while the system moves
generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 141228
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Aug 14 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An elongated low pressure system located more than 1300 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
is producing a small area of showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for
development, and a tropical depression could form over the next few
days before the system reaches cooler waters and upper-level winds
become unfavorable. This disturbance is forecast to move
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form south or
southeast of the southeastern coast of Mexico late this week.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of the system over the weekend while the system moves
generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 141146
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Aug 14 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An elongated low pressure system located more than 1300 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
is producing a small area of showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for
development, and a tropical depression could form over the next few
days before the system reaches cooler waters and upper-level winds
become unfavorable. This disturbance is forecast to move
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form south or
southeast of the southeastern coast of Mexico late this week.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of the system over the weekend while the system moves
generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

140
ABPZ20 KNHC 140517
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Aug 13 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An elongated low pressure system located more than 1200 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula is producing a small area of showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for
some development during the next few days, and a tropical depression
could form later this week before upper-level winds become
unfavorable. This disturbance is expected to move west-northwestward
at around 10 mph during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form south or
southeast of the southeastern coast of Mexico late this week.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of the system over the weekend while the system moves
generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 132336
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Aug 13 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An elongated trough of low pressure located about 1200 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some
development during the next few days, and a tropical depression
could form later this week before upper-level winds become
unfavorable. This disturbance is expected to move west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form south or
southeast of the southeastern coast of Mexico late this week.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of the system over the weekend while the system moves
westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 13 Aug 2019 19:25:26 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 13 Aug 2019 19:25:26 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 13 Aug 2019 18:29:56 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 13 Aug 2019 18:29:56 GMT

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 131730
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Aug 13 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on
Henriette, which has become a remnant low located a few hundred
miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
Peninsula.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located about 1100 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula are
associated with an elongated trough of low pressure. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for some development during
the next few days, and a tropical depression could form later this
week while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form south or
southeast of the southeastern coast of Mexico late this week.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of the system over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 13 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 131433 TCDEP4 Post-Tropical Cyclone Henriette Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092019 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 13 2019 The system has been devoid of deep convection for about 12 hours, and therefore, it has degenerated into a remnant low. The post-tropical cyclone is moving through an environment of dry, stable air and over cooler SSTs, which should cause the low to dissipate in a day or so. The motion is west-northwestward, or 285/10 kt. A low-level ridge to the north of the system should steer Henriette's remnants on a west-northwestward to westward heading until dissipation. The official track forecast is close to the multi-model consensus, TVCE. This is the last NHC advisory on Henriette. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 21.4N 116.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 14/0000Z 21.8N 117.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 14/1200Z 22.0N 120.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 13 2019 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 131432 PWSEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HENRIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092019 1500 UTC TUE AUG 13 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HENRIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 13 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 131432 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Henriette Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092019 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 13 2019 ...HENRIETTE BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.4N 116.1W ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Henriette was located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 116.1 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and a west-northwestward to westward motion is expected over the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The cyclone is expected to dissipate tomorrow. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Pasch

...HENRIETTE BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Tue Aug 13 the center of Henriette was located near 21.4, -116.1 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 13 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 131431 TCMEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HENRIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092019 1500 UTC TUE AUG 13 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 116.1W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 116.1W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 115.6W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 21.8N 117.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 22.0N 120.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 116.1W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER PASCH

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 131141
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Aug 13 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Depression Henriette, located a few hundred
miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located about 1100 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula are
associated with an elongated trough of low pressure. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development
during the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to
form later this week while the system moves west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form south or
southeast of the southeastern coast of Mexico late this week.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of the system over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 13 Aug 2019 08:33:37 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 13 Aug 2019 15:24:25 GMT

...HENRIETTE WEAKENING QUICKLY... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Tue Aug 13 the center of Henriette was located near 21.1, -115.2 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 130522
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Aug 12 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Henriette, located a few hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located about 1100 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula are
associated with an elongated trough of low pressure. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development
during the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to
form later this week while the system moves west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form south or
southeast of the southeastern coast of Mexico late this week.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of the system over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 13 Aug 2019 02:51:26 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 13 Aug 2019 03:24:23 GMT

Issued at 900 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 130250 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Henriette Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092019 900 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Scatterometer data and visible satellite imagery indicate that Henriette has maintained a robust, compact low-level circulation despite the pulsing convection. In fact, three earlier ASCAT passes between 1613Z and 1728Z indicated reliable wind speeds of 37-38 kt, suggesting that Henriette could have been near 40 kt prior to those times. However, since 1800Z, northeasterly vertical wind shear and dry air intrusions have reduced and confined the overall convective pattern to just intermittent bursts in the southwestern quadrant. The initial intensity is being maintained at 35 kt based on the shear pattern, a UW-CIMSS ADT intensity estimate of T2.4/34 kt, and allowing for some slight spin down of the low-level vortex. The initial motion remains 290/11 kt. A west-northwestward motion is forecast to continue for the next 24 hours so, followed by a turn toward the west by early Wednesday as the weakening cyclone becomes vertically shallow and gets steered by the low-level easterly tradewind flow. The new NHC forecast track remains essentially unchanged and is just an extension of the previous advisory, and lies about midway between the consensus models HCCA and TVCE. Although the official intensity forecast calls for steady weakening, it is possible that Henriette could remain a tropical storm in 12 h due to the cyclone coming out of the convective maximum period and still located over SSTs between 26C and 26.5 deg C. However, by 18 h and beyond, the cyclone will be moving over sub-26C SSTs and into a drier environment, which is expected to result in significant weakening, with Henriette degenerating into a remnant low by late Tuesday and dissipating by late Wednesday. The official intensity forecast is identical to previous advisory and closely follows the IVCN and HCCA consensus intensity forecast models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 20.7N 114.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 21.2N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 21.8N 118.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 14/1200Z 22.3N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 13 2019 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 130250 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092019 0300 UTC TUE AUG 13 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART