National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191733
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Aug 19 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located a couple of hundred miles southeast of the southern coast
Mexico have become better organized during the past several hours.
Environmental conditions are conducive for further development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or
two while the low moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph parallel
to the coast of Mexico. Moisture associated with this disturbance
could produce heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding across
portions of Guatemala and southeastern Mexico during the next couple
of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A low pressure system located a little over 900 miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to
produce a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are expected to become more conducive for development by
mid-week, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
next few days while the system moves westward to west-northwestward
at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191149
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Aug 19 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An elongated area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles
southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are
forecast to become conducive for development during the next
couple of days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by
mid-week while the low moves west-northwestward at about
10 mph parallel to the coast of Mexico. Moisture associated with
this disturbance could produce heavy rainfall and possible flash
flooding across portions of Guatemala and southeastern Mexico during
the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A well-defined low pressure system located more 900 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to
produce a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are expected to gradually become more conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
next few days while the system moves westward to west-northwestward
at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 190532
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Aug 18 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An elongated area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles
south of Guatemala and southeastern Mexico is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. However, environmental conditions are
forecast to become more conducive for development during the next
couple of days, and a tropical depression is expected to form by
Tuesday or Wednesday while the low moves west-northwestward at about
10 mph parallel to the coast of Mexico. Moisture associated with
this disturbance could produce heavy rainfall and possible flash
flooding across portions of Guatemala and southeastern Mexico during
the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A well-defined low pressure system located more 900 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to
produce a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are expected to gradually improve, and a tropical
depression could form during the next few days while the system
moves westward to west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 182334
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Aug 18 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An elongated area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles
south of Guatemala and southeastern Mexico continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. However, environmental
conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development
during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression is
expected to form by Tuesday or Wednesday while the low moves
west-northwestward at about 10 mph parallel to the coast of Mexico.
Moisture associated with this disturbance could produce heavy
rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions of Guatemala
and southeastern Mexico during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A low pressure system located more 900 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing a large
area of cloudiness and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are
expected to gradually improve, and a tropical depression could form
during the next few days while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181742
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Aug 18 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located a couple of hundred miles south of the Mexico/Guatemala
border remain disorganized. Environmental conditions are expected
to become more conducive for development during the next couple of
days, and a tropical depression is expected to form by Tuesday or
Wednesday while the low moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph
parallel to the coast of Mexico. Moisture associated with the low
is forecast to produce heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding
across portions of Guatemala and southeastern Mexico during the next
couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A tropical wave located about 900 miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental
conditions continue to support slow development, and a tropical
depression could form later this week while the system moves
westward to west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Another tropical wave located about 1300 miles west-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
limited shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions
are not expected to be conducive for development while the system
moves slowly westward at about 10 mph during the next couple of
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181147
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Aug 18 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located a couple of hundred miles south-southwest of the coast of
Guatemala have changed little in organization since yesterday.
Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for
development during the next couple of days, and a tropical
depression is expected to form by Tuesday or Wednesday while the low
moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph parallel to the coast of
Mexico. Moisture associated with the low is forecast to produce
heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions of El
Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A tropical wave located about 900 miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental
conditions continue to support slow development, and this system has
the potential to become a tropical cyclone by the middle of the week
while it moves westward to west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Shower and thunderstorm activity near another tropical wave located
about 1300 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula has decreased since yesterday. Any
development of this system during the next couple of days is
expected to be slow to occur while it moves slowly westward at
about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 180530
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Aug 17 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of
the coast of Guatemala is producing a limited area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms tonight. Environmental conditions are
expected to become more conducive for development by early next
week, and a tropical depression is expected to form by Tuesday while
the low moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph parallel to the
coast of Mexico. Moisture associated with the low is forecast to
produce heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions
of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico during the next
few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located about 900 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California has increased since yesterday. Environmental
conditions continue to support slow development, and this system
has the potential to become a tropical cyclone by the middle of next
week while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Another tropical wave, located about 1300 miles west-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, is producing
cloudiness and showers. Some development of this system is
possible during the next couple of days while it moves slowly
westward across the southwestern portion of the eastern Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 172348
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Aug 17 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of
the coast of Guatemala continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to become
more conducive for development by early next week, and a tropical
depression is expected to form on Monday or Tuesday while the low
moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph parallel to the coast of
Mexico. Moisture associated with the low is forecast to produce
heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions of El
Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A tropical wave located about 900 miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Some slow
development of this system is possible over the next several days
while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Another tropical wave, located about 1300 miles west-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this
system is possible during the next couple of days while it moves
slowly westward across the southwestern portion of the eastern
Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 171739
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Aug 17 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of
the coast of Guatemala continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. NOAA and the National Science Foundation are
currently conducting a research mission in this system, and the
data from the mission indicate that the circulation remains broad
and elongated, and surface pressures are relatively high. Still,
environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form early next
week while the low moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph parallel
to the coast of Mexico. Regardless of development, moisture
associated with the low is forecast to produce heavy rainfall and
possible flash flooding across portions of El Salvador, Guatemala,
and southeastern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

A tropical wave located about 850 miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Some slow
development of this system is possible over the next several days
while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Another tropical wave located about 1300 miles west-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development
of this system is possible during the next couple of days while it
moves slowly westward at about 5 mph across the southwestern portion
of the eastern Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 171147
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Aug 17 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of
the coast of Guatemala is producing some disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form early next week while the low moves west-northwestward at about
10 mph parallel to the coast of Mexico. Regardless of development,
moisture associated with the low is forecast to produce heavy
rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions of Central
America and southeastern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in association with
a tropical wave located about 850 miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Some slow
development of this system is possible over the next several days
while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Another tropical wave located about 1300 miles west-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development
of this system is possible during the next couple of days while it
moves slowly westward at about 5 mph across the southwestern portion
of the eastern Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

277
ABPZ20 KNHC 170522
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Aug 16 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of
the coast of Guatemala is producing some disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form early next week while the low moves west-northwestward at about
10 mph parallel to the coast of Mexico. Regardless of development,
moisture associated with the low is forecast to produce heavy
rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions of Central
America and southeastern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

A tropical wave continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms centered about 1250 miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Gradual development
of this system is possible during the next few days while it moves
slowly westward across the southwestern portion of the eastern
Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 162354
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Aug 16 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of
the coast of Guatemala is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to
be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form early next week while the low moves west-northwestward at about
10 mph parallel to the coast of Mexico. Regardless of development,
moisture associated with the low is forecast to produce heavy
rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions of Central
America and southeastern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
more than 1200 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula. Gradual development of this disturbance is
possible during the next few days while it moves slowly westward
across the tropical eastern Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Hagen

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 161734
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Aug 16 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles
south of the coasts of El Salvador and Guatemala is producing a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the
middle of next week while the low moves west-northwestward at about
10 mph parallel to the coast of Mexico. Regardless of development,
moisture associated with the low is forecast to produce heavy
rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions of Central
America and southeastern Mexico during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
about 1200 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula. Slow development of this disturbance is
possible during the next couple of days while it moves
slowly westward across the tropical eastern Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg/Hagen

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 161141
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Aug 16 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure has formed a couple of hundred miles
south of the coasts of El Salvador and Guatemala and is producing a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of the low, and a tropical depression could form by
early next week while the system moves west-northwestward at about
10 mph parallel to the coast of Mexico. Regardless of development,
moisture associated with the low is forecast to produce heavy
rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions of Central
America during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
about 1100 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula. Slow development of this disturbance is
possible during the next couple of days while it moves
slowly westward across the tropical eastern Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 160526 CCA
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Aug 15 2019

Corrected order of paragraphs for graphical product.

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of disturbed weather has formed about 1000 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Although the
associated shower and thunderstorm activity is showing some signs of
organization, the system does not appear to have a well-defined
surface center. Slow development of this disturbance is possible
during the next couple of days while it moves westward across the
tropical eastern Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

An elongated area of low pressure located about 1700 miles west of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
intermittent showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are
not conducive for development and tropical cyclone formation is not
anticipated. The low is forecast to move generally westward at 10 to
15 mph for the new couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...near 0 percent.

An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the coasts of
El Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico in a day or two.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of the low thereafter and a tropical depression could
form by early next week while the system moves slowly westward or
west-northwestward. Regardless of development, moisture associated
with the system is forecast to produce heavy rainfall and possible
flash flooding across portions of Central America during the next
several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 152339
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Aug 15 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An elongated area of low pressure located about 1600 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
is producing a small area of disorganized showers. Environmental
conditions do not appear conducive for significant development of
this system while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph during the next
couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the coasts of
El Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico over the weekend.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of the low while it moves slowly westward early next
week. Regardless of development, moisture associated with this
system is forecast to produce heavy rainfall and possible
flash flooding across portions of Central America through early
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky/Hagen

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 151725
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Aug 15 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An elongated area of low pressure located more than 1500 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
is producing a small area of showers and a few thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions do not appear conducive for significant
development of this system while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph
during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the coasts of
El Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico over the weekend.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of the low while it moves slowly westward early
next week. Regardless of development, moisture associated with
this system is forecast to produce heavy rainfall and possible
flash flooding across portions of Central America through early
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 151130
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Aug 15 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An elongated area of low pressure located about 1500 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
is producing limited shower activity. Environmental conditions do
not appear conducive for significant development of this system
while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph during the next couple of
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the coasts of
El Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico over the weekend.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of the low while it moves slowly westward early
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 150500
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Aug 14 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An elongated area of low pressure is producing limited shower
activity. Only slight development of this disturbance, if any, is
expected during the next couple of days while it moves westward at
10 to 15 mph. Environmental conditions are forecast to become
unfavorable for further development by the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

An area of low pressure is forecast to form south or southeast of
the southeastern coast of Mexico over the weekend. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development
thereafter while the system moves generally westward through early
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 142349
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Aug 14 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A weak area of low pressure located about 1400 miles west-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to
produce limited showers and thunderstorms. Recent satellite-based
wind data indicates that the circulation of the system is elongated
and poorly defined. Environmental conditions are expected to be
marginally conducive for development for the next couple of days and
a tropical depression could still form before the system reaches
cooler waters and upper-level winds become unfavorable over the
central Pacific. This disturbance is forecast to move
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

An area of low pressure is forecast to form south or southeast of
the southeastern coast of Mexico over the weekend. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of
the system early next week while it moves generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky